Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Woland]

To any more informed analysts among us, what are the key goals for this attack by Ukraine? Is it just to relieve pressure and draw in Russian units, a prelude to negotiations to strengthen their hand, or are there big strategic targets in the area that they want to target and destroy? How far do we think they will try to advance?

I'm wondering whether they will seek to hold the territory, or at some point quickly withdraw back beyond their border to avoid losses?

Also, any information as to whether the Russian volunteer regiments are involved in this incursion?

I think it's a bit of several:
1. Incur more losses onto RU than UA is taking
2. Show that Ukraine is still capable of taking the initiative, which is essential to Ukraine continuing to receive support from the West. This goes for both politicians and voters.
3. Boost the morale of Ukrainians, both military and civilian
4. Provide Ukrainians with a stronger position for future negotiations, as well as make it difficult for Trump (if he wins) to force unfavorable conditions onto Ukraine

As far as I know Ukraine is only using experienced units for this attack. Freedom of Russia Legion and others are not involved, and have not posted anything about being involved.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage has been published of a Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-52" striking a Ukrainian armored vehicle "Kozak-2" in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region of Russia. The armored vehicle "Kozak 2M.1" was introduced in 2016 and can have small arms or a 40-mm automatic grenade launcher UAG-40. There were two drone attacks in total, the first strike on the car on the road, after the car went off the road, the second strike destroyed the armored vehicle "Kozak-2".

 

[carlitob]

what's really obvious from this is that Russia doesn't have, or hasn't organised, any kind of mobile reserve.

Surely any large and decently organised military would keep a quick reaction mobile / armoured force ready for any cross border raids or incursions.

This is a hugely importantly region, with a nuclear plant within touching distance. Is this just another example of shocking Russian organisation, or a sign they are down to the bare bones of their armoured vehicle availability?

You cant even use the excuse that the Russians were just caught off-guard, as the Wagner mutiny and raids by the anti Russian volunteer forces gave ample warning that this kind of thing was possible, and needed to be guarded against.

I would love to hear what my Russian friends think of this, unfortunately they have been silent now for a number of weeks :-(

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823057856599335095

The US has openly announced its support for Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region on Russian territory.

 

[Relic]

Food for thought. In 6 days Ukraine has taken 80% as much land in Russia as Russia has taken in Ukraine throughout the entirety of 2024. Ukraine has lost a handful of armored vehicles and very few personnel. Russia, on the other hand, has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of armored vehicles to achieve their marginal gains.

 

[TheInsider]

Armed Forces of Ukraine is trying to secure the area west of the Sudza-Khomutovka line. Korenovo and Rilsk are major targets. If successful I doubt Russians can regain control of that territory.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a head-on battle in Girya, Kursk Oblast, between a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier BTR-4E and a Russian armored personnel carrier BTR-82A. Both combat vehicles are armed with 30-mm 2A72 cannons. In general, the combat vehicles are approximately equal, but the Russian BTR-82A opened fire first, which decided the outcome of the battle, the BTR-4 caught fire. It is worth noting that, according to all the facts of the use of equipment in battles in Ukraine that have been shown over the past 2 years, it was important who first noticed the enemy, this decides the outcome of the battle.

 

[Woland]

Food for thought. In 6 days Ukraine has taken 80% as much land in Russia as Russia has taken in Ukraine throughout the entirety of 2024. Ukraine has lost a handful of armored vehicles and very few personnel. Russia, on the other hand, has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of armored vehicles to achieve their marginal gains.

StratCom wrote today that Ukraine has now matched Russia's 2024 gains.

In other news, Ukraine is continuing to press for permission from the US use ATACMS and the UK to use Storm Shadows, to strike targets on Russian territory. The Biden administration is still refusing to grant permission, despite pressure from many members of Congress, both Democrats and Republicans.

Senators Blumenthal and Graham returned from a trip to Ukraine where they met with Zelensky, and released the following statement: https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-and-graham-on-visit-to-ukraine

Summary:

1. "After listening to President Zelensky, we urge the Biden Administration to lift restrictions on weapons provided by the United States so they can strike the Russian invaders more effectively."
2. "We will introduce the Stand With Ukraine Act [...] in September. This bipartisan piece of legislation will codify the bilateral security agreement reached by the Biden Administration and Zelensky’s government this past July."
   
   This is important because only treaties ratified by the Senate (two thirds needed) are considered legally binding past the Presidential term of the President who signed the treaty.
   
   
3. "We urge NATO to issue an invitation this year to Ukraine for membership, making real what has been described as inevitable."
4. "President Zelensky was excited about a strategic agreement with the U.S. regarding the more than a trillion dollars-worth of rare earth minerals owned by Ukraine and expressed a commitment to create a working group with the U.S. to make this happen."
5. "President Zelensky told us both that he would be looking to supplement his Air Force by establishing a program to enlist retired NATO F-16 fighter pilots. We support this effort."
6. "Now is the time to form a strategic partnership with Ukraine that can have tremendous economic benefits to the United States and lead to stability in Europe. Ukraine has demonstrated it has a genuine desire to join the democratic family of nations. We must not abandon them in their hour of need. We should accelerate the gains that have been achieved through dogged determination and courage."

 

[Spitfire9]

Senators Blumenthal and Graham returned from a trip to Ukraine where they met with Zelensky, and released the following statement: https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-and-graham-on-visit-to-ukraine

Summary:

1. "After listening to President Zelensky, we urge the Biden Administration to lift restrictions on weapons provided by the United States so they can strike the Russian invaders more effectively."
2. "We will introduce the Stand With Ukraine Act [...] in September. This bipartisan piece of legislation will codify the bilateral security agreement reached by the Biden Administration and Zelensky’s government this past July."
   
   This is important because only treaties ratified by the Senate (two thirds needed) are considered legally binding past the Presidential term of the President who signed the treaty.
   
   
3. "We urge NATO to issue an invitation this year to Ukraine for membership, making real what has been described as inevitable."
4. "President Zelensky was excited about a strategic agreement with the U.S. regarding the more than a trillion dollars-worth of rare earth minerals owned by Ukraine and expressed a commitment to create a working group with the U.S. to make this happen."
5. "President Zelensky told us both that he would be looking to supplement his Air Force by establishing a program to enlist retired NATO F-16 fighter pilots. We support this effort."
6. "Now is the time to form a strategic partnership with Ukraine that can have tremendous economic benefits to the United States and lead to stability in Europe. Ukraine has demonstrated it has a genuine desire to join the democratic family of nations. We must not abandon them in their hour of need. We should accelerate the gains that have been achieved through dogged determination and courage."

What are the chances of the proposed Ukraine Act going through?

 

[Woland]

What are the chances of the proposed Ukraine Act going through?

For now I would give it 20%. Although the Senate is more pro-Ukrainian than the House, it's still going to be a challenge, and some Senators will prefer to delay to see who wins in November. Graham and Blumenthal often introduce legislation that has low chances of passing (like their recently renewed attempt to label Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism). Work has also begun on legislation to continue funding Ukraine into the new year, no matter who wins, which will take precedence and political capital. I'll be in DC in September for meetings with members of Congress and will get a better idea then.

 

[UkroTurk]

Footage of a head-on battle in Girya, Kursk Oblast, between a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier BTR-4E and a Russian armored personnel carrier BTR-82A. Both combat vehicles are armed with 30-mm 2A72 cannons. In general, the combat vehicles are approximately equal, but the Russian BTR-82A opened fire first, which decided the outcome of the battle, the BTR-4 caught fire. It is worth noting that, according to all the facts of the use of equipment in battles in Ukraine that have been shown over the past 2 years, it was important who first noticed the enemy, this decides the outcome of the battle.

Situational awareness is much more important than the weapon if the lives of soldiers are expensive for the armies Currently 360degree motion detector sensors and early warning softwares are not necessary as both sides use old battle doctrines.

 

[Agha Sher]

Food for thought. In 6 days Ukraine has taken 80% as much land in Russia as Russia has taken in Ukraine throughout the entirety of 2024. Ukraine has lost a handful of armored vehicles and very few personnel. Russia, on the other hand, has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of armored vehicles to achieve their marginal gains.

You need to start following russian telegram channels as well for a more balanced view.

ukraines endeavor into kursk has had a much greater cost than what you say. many dozen dead Ukrainians soldiers and destroyed vehicles have been filmed by the russians.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823494899141849171

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823494909510193364

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823494919060599271

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823498982179348552

While Ukraine is straining the conditions in all conflict zones in Kursk, the Russians have made progress on 5 different fronts in Ukraine. It is now clear why Ukraine invaded Russia. They have given up hope of winning by fighting the Russians on their own soil.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823094452183040196

"Russian source summarises that the AFU continued a significant offensive along nearly the entire combat line in the Kursk region, making multiple attempts to break through, particularly around Korenevo, Olgino, and towards Kauchuk and Berdin. He says battles for breakthroughs are expected to continue over the next few days."

 

[Tonyukuk]

This war will last longer than the Syrian civil war. It will only end when Putin loses power or Ukraine gets annihilated. Both are looking unlikely.

Retreat would not only be embarrassing, but will cost Putin his presidency and life.

 

[Relic]

You need to start following russian telegram channels as well for a more balanced view.

ukraines endeavor into kursk has had a much greater cost than what you say. many dozen dead Ukrainians soldiers and destroyed vehicles have been filmed by the rurussians

My dude, I'm well aware that Ukraine is enduring losses. They lost 5 BTRs and a number of troops near Giri. They've suffered lost MRAPS, strykers, Bradleys, Marders and artillery... You don't go on the offense and not suffer losses. That's not how peer on peer war works.

But Ukraine now has fire control over approximately 1000 square KMs of Russia, about as much territory as Russia has taken in all of 2024. What's the difference? It has cost Ukraine maybe 30-40 damaged / destroyed vehicles and a couple hundred KIA troops. The same amount of territory cost Russia tens of thousands of KIA, thousands more WIA and more than 1000 pieces of armor and artillery and more than two dozen aviation assets.

We're not talking about anywhere close to the same level of casualties on the Ukrainian side and they managed to take the territory in 1 week. The same amount of territory has taken Russia 8 months to take.

Have some perspective.

 

[contricusc]

This war will last longer than the Syrian civil war. It will only end when Putin loses power or Ukraine gets annihilated. Both are looking unlikely.

Retreat would not only be embarrassing, but will cost Putin his presidency and life.

Historically, it is much likelier for a dictator to lose power than for a nation to be anihilated, so I know where I would put my bets.

 

[Relic]

Ukraine received another tranche of macro financial funds from the EU, totaling $4.6 Billion usd.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-receives-42-billion-euros-eu-prime-minister-says-2024-08-13/

 

[UkroTurk]

"Meeting on the situation in the Kursk region. We discussed the key issues. Security, humanitarian aid, and, if necessary, establishment of military commandant's offices," Zelensky wrote.

 

[Spitfire9]

While Ukraine is straining the conditions in all conflict zones in Kursk, the Russians have made progress on 5 different fronts in Ukraine. It is now clear why Ukraine invaded Russia. They have given up hope of winning by fighting the Russians on their own soil.

So long as Ukraine is prevented from using donated weapons to neutralise bases in Russia used for strikes into Ukraine, Russia can conduct strikes into Ukraine indefinitely. You cannot win a war is such circumstances.

PS Imagine that Turkiye could not use its weapons to strike outside its borders but bordering countries could conduct strikes into Turkiye with impunity... Turkiye could never defeat neighbouring states attacking it.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1824062805957288141