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I have some sources on the Ukraine-Russia conflict which I follow because I rely on them more even though they are pro-Russia (although some claim to be impartial), because they had proven to be more objective in their analysis and reporting than most Western sources; but they proved themselves...

Some people don't seem to understand Israelis jubilation and write this whole thing on their wall. All roads from Iran to Iraq to Lebanon and West Bank go through Syria, many of Hezbollah's crucial weapon manufacturing facilities and depots are in Syria. Obviously Israel will be jubilant. On the...

This idea of like Israel and U.S. all planning this from the dawn of time and that all is going according to plan for them is such taxi driver level discourse bullcrap. The leader of the group has called himself Al-Julani. Julan as in Golan heights; that's his cause.

His and his father's right hand man, Khaddam when he fled in 2005, it was reported to have about 1.1 billion dollars in credit suisse at the time.

They've always done this, any opportunity they get.

Then, Davutoğlu has to thank Netanyahu for decapitating Hezbollah, and Trump and Obama for drying up Iran's resources so Kataib, Hashd, Asaib, Zeynabiyun, Fatemiyun etc. all had to pack up and leave, and Biden because he has been sending enough weapons to Ukraine so Russia has had to commit...

No amount of justification based on 'fear', 'lying' etc. will be able to cast doubt on such a drastic number. The error cannot exceed 20-30%.

Israeli admin showing its hand and intentions very early to the new guys will shape their thinking for the time to come, will fuel suspicions and even if it's based on a back-room deal, it will be an approach only tolerated by the new guys because they don't hold power already. So this is...

just to be clear I'm not implicating Cem Gürdeniz in what I accused some Eurasianists of in that post. Gürdeniz is very smart and erudite (I'm a huge fan of him), I was trying to present his approach as the more level-headed one coming from a Eurasianist pov, but still being welded to the dogmas...

This is also great opportunity to show the real face of some Eurasianists who always cheer for the interests of Russia and China but hide behind anti-imperialism to make it seem their advocacy is equally for Turkish interests. Now that those interests are clashing very tangibly with ours (as the...

Well if these don't stop, signals should be given that Tartus might be on the menu.

False analogy fallacy; Turkey is a tax-state, Syria a rentier one (other problems of manufactured borders, etc. set aside). We have very strong ideological state apparatuses working on washing the brains of our little ones (I'm a prime example myself), as evidenced here:

There were reports that HTS have promised Russia they will not move onto Latakia and Tartus.

Free independent media.

I think even if HTS is persuaded to make a deal with YPG right now, them gaining power at the expense of Assad, Iranians and Russia is a good thing for us in the long run. In the other scenario, Assad wouldn't have had the base of support to start contesting northern cities, and uncontested YPG...

Yeah best bet is to cut the access to Damascus from down under.

I very much doubt this is what Israelis have in mind for the long-term; their best bet is a fragmented Syria with an Alawite enclave around Damascus and a Kurdish region in line with the 'alliance of the periphery'.

If the U.S.-Israeli side thinks they can hug HTS now (in order to sideline Assad first), to squeeze them later with the help of YPG, by a media onslaught of suddenly remembering HTS' past, I'm not that sure that plan is going to work.

Seems like a similar move to YPG then to SDF is taking place, probably the same assembly of people behind that move are partially in charge here as well; I wonder what their endgame is here as this entity and SDF cannot possibly be assumed to live happily ever after, no matter what leniency has...

Very interesting; I reply here not to derail the thread on Syria. I agree with some assumptions and arguments of structural-realism but only as a prescriptive model not a descriptive one. Theirs is a model selection dilemma, of Occam's razor considerations on variable, i.e. parsimony. The...