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False analogy fallacy; Turkey is a tax-state, Syria a rentier one (other problems of manufactured borders, etc. set aside). We have very strong ideological state apparatuses working on washing the brains of our little ones (I'm a prime example myself), as evidenced here:

There were reports that HTS have promised Russia they will not move onto Latakia and Tartus.

Free independent media.

I think even if HTS is persuaded to make a deal with YPG right now, them gaining power at the expense of Assad, Iranians and Russia is a good thing for us in the long run. In the other scenario, Assad wouldn't have had the base of support to start contesting northern cities, and uncontested YPG...

Yeah best bet is to cut the access to Damascus from down under.

I very much doubt this is what Israelis have in mind for the long-term; their best bet is a fragmented Syria with an Alawite enclave around Damascus and a Kurdish region in line with the 'alliance of the periphery'.

If the U.S.-Israeli side thinks they can hug HTS now (in order to sideline Assad first), to squeeze them later with the help of YPG, by a media onslaught of suddenly remembering HTS' past, I'm not that sure that plan is going to work.

Seems like a similar move to YPG then to SDF is taking place, probably the same assembly of people behind that move are partially in charge here as well; I wonder what their endgame is here as this entity and SDF cannot possibly be assumed to live happily ever after, no matter what leniency has...

Very interesting; I reply here not to derail the thread on Syria. I agree with some assumptions and arguments of structural-realism but only as a prescriptive model not a descriptive one. Theirs is a model selection dilemma, of Occam's razor considerations on variable, i.e. parsimony. The...

Corporations also are led by humans, but all these human actors are forced into the structure in which they maximize profit and do not act as individual agents but according to the rules and the forces of the market, hence all corporations converge in their behaviour in maximizing profits as if...

Morality is a matter of scale. You can't have morality at the scale of a state, except for one overarching principle and that's survival. You can be pro-Palestine as a matter of personal moral principle; a state can be pro-Palestine for other reasons and pretend that it is due to moral...

The Chinese channel acting as a mouthpiece for China's regional allies (Iran-Hezbollah) once again (just like other Eurasianists). They will always side with the interest of those guys, but some times it overlaps with our interests and sounds good so it dupes people.

We like that they are not leaving the whole of north Syria to PKK and are creating an alternative, a presence which might prove problematic for them in the future, along with a possibility of SNA gaining more influence and the HTS dependence on us making them acquiesce and confront PKK, along...

I don't know what we're thinking, the whole thing is seen already at our door. You at least try and then if there's pressure and it's unbearable you can reduce your support. You can't just assume the worst from U.S. in this opportune moment; on top of it their government is in transition mode.

Also take a look on twitter and see what all those pro-Palestinian accounts (affiliated with Hamas, ergo Iran) think about these operations. Trying to court elements from Hamas to gain influence is not a bad thing, but making it explicit and public and using it to shore up domestic support is...

You should always talk to make them think they have something to gain from talks; you can use it to deceive and distract, feign agreement and exact concessions to then reneg on your own terms when you have the upper hand on the ground.

They shouldn't overextend, there might be plans to make them spread thin for the Hannibal pincer move in the Cannae; the way they are not mounting any defence in the center is reminding me of that shit.

If there's any sustainability here, the opposition forces will grow massively.

If they want to do a comparison they can find a lot of Islamists in 1920s; they wanted to give up the whole country to protect themselves, and none of them could even dream of the stuff Ataturk achieved, the situation was so dire. It's easy to talk after a republic has been established with...

I had copied findings of a study on how governments use botnets and social media brigading to influence public opinion in countries they seek to weaken: I share them here, they are very interesting: "The function of swarm accounts and botnets in cyberwar: Swarm accounts and botnets are new...