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Indeed. Involving Indonesia has created problems for the KFX project. What would make Turkiye think things would be different if Indonesia was involved with KAAN?

I'm not sure about adults being in charge. The adult thing for Putin to do would have been to make some excuse and abandon the invasion once it was clear the blitzkrieg had failed. The adult thing for Biden to do would have been to furnish Ukraine with the best means to reverse the invasion...

Just a reminder about the relative strength of Russia v its opponents in the Ukraine war GDP Russia - circa $2,250 billion US+EU - circa $40,000 billion Spending $100 billion-$200 billion a year on Ukraine is easily affordable for US+EU. They can do that indefinitely (internal politics allowing).

Most Ukrainians would hate to live under the control of Russia. They want to live in a democratic country under the control of their own, Ukrainian government. They are prepared to fight and possibly die rather than see their freedom and identity disappear because that is what Putin wants. Putin...

I am aware of that. Are you aware of what proportion of those emigrants are women and children? I am not but the Ukrainians in my extended family who moved to other countries because of the invasion are women and children, not men. That indicates that if a million leave, it will not reduce the...

I don't follow your numbers. To keep it simple, I'll suppose in 2022 140 million in Russia 40 million in Ukraine Russia population is 3.5 times Ukraine population. I think the probability of Russia having 6-9 times as many men of fighting age as Ukraine is extremely low. I think you must have...

Before being attacked there was always the chance that Russia would choose to attack Ukraine. Now Russia has demonstrated that risk was very grave by attacking Ukraine, I would say that Ukraine's only chance of future security is to be part of some mutual military alliance. In negotiations to...

I think it was a good political move to occupy some lightly defended Russian territory. Whether or not there is any strategic value militarily does not matter. I think that Ukraine should build up defences and try to defend the Kursk enclave. With Russian supplies from across the river...

You do not always pay what you owe. If you did there would not have been the many problems generated in the KF-X programme, generated by Indonesia not honouring payment agreements. Sorry, I'm not going to spend time looking up the times that Indonesia has not honoured its payment commitments to...

How do you get across the river Seym when you've blown the bridges? That stops everyone crossing - Ukrainians as well as Russians.

It was a good move politically to take some Russian territory. Now that 3 bridges used by Russia to supply Kursk are gone it is not going to be easy for Russia to retake it.

Seen from the point of view of companies that would be supplying Indonesia with parts to assemble KF-21: we must be paid for goods and services we deliver according to contract. If Indonesia breaks its contracts with ROK suppliers, ROK government is not going to pay them what Indonesia owes...

Good to hear - could take Germany one step closer to supplying the Taurus strike asset to Ukraine.

I agree - Ukrainian manpower long term is of concern to me. Assuming the EU continues its support for democracy on its doorstep, I think that Ukraine can carry on fighting for years. Ukrainians want to retain their country's independence and culture by resisting the Russians. How many would be...

Ukraine targeting Russia with weapons provided by the West would be the stupidest thing to do? Would you advocate leaving intact Russian bases in Russia proper so that they can be used to launch attacks on Ukraine indefinitely? Do you think it sensible that attacks on Ukraine from within Russia...

A good way to reduce the glide bomb damage to Ukraine is to strike the bases in Russia from which aircraft carrying them take off. Ukraine seems to be able to neutralise all or nearly all attack drones if numbers do not swamp defences.

Fighting vehicles: I think Russia is losing tanks many times faster than it is producing new ones. I read that a lot of stored tanks are being brought back into service but they are older types and the stock is finite. IISS estimate for 2023 T-90 production: 60-70 IISS estimate for 2024 T-90...

I think that what happens in the next few months depends on - continuing American support by the next administration (low probability IMO) - continuing EU, UK, Norway support (high probability IMO) - whether rules of engagement allow Ukraine to use donated weapons to attack Russia - whether...

One thing that is clear to me is that the US has little interest in providing Ukraine with the unfettered means to win the conflict. It appears to see the Ukraine war as a proxy contest between itself and Russia, one aimed to drain Russia militarily and financially. Provided Russia does not...