Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Your opinion is that Ukraine will be the first country unable to sustain the war. My opinion is that Russia will be the one that will find it harder and harder to keep up as the war drags on. Ukraine’s backers have unlimited resources compared to Russia, and their economies are not at war, so they can continue to provide both financial and military support for as long as it takes. So from this point of view, form Ukraine’s side, the war is sustainable long term from an economic and industrial point of view. Only the manpower issue is debatable.

On Russia’s side, while the manpower pool is not going to run out, the economic and industrial capacity to sustain the war may not be sufficient in the long term. It is more likely that a country faces a total economic collapse before it runs out of people to sustain a war.

My opinion is that Ukraine’s manpower can outlast Russia’s economy and industrial capacity, and if the West continues to give incremewntal support to Ukraine, there will be a point when Russia is simply unable to hold the equilibrium at the frontlines.

I agree - Ukrainian manpower long term is of concern to me.

Assuming the EU continues its support for democracy on its doorstep, I think that Ukraine can carry on fighting for years. Ukrainians want to retain their country's independence and culture by resisting the Russians. How many would be prepared to swap living in a free, democratic state for living under the control of a tyrannical foreign state? I think that most Ukrainians are far more motivated to defend their way of life that Russians are to end it.

No expert me but I doubt that AFU troops can retake their lost territory through soldiers retaking the ground. Russia has had the time required to set up considerable ground defences. I see the degradation of the logistics supporting the occupying Russian army as the way to beat them through forcing them to withdraw from untenable positions in areas where the population sees them as the occupying enemy. That may not be the case in Donetsk and Luhansk.

I agree that the financial burden of supporting Ukraine is not large for the EU and can therefore be maintained as long as needed. I don't see Russia being able to sustain the cost of the war for as long as needed.

 

[Relic]

The Netherlands announced that it is purchasing 51 radars for Ukraine, sensitive enough to detect drones. Delivery of the drones will be done in batches, starting in Q4 2024.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826303863584162126

 

[Relic]

Ukraine struck a Russian S-300 battery in Rostov Oblast. The fate of the entirety of the battery is not known, but at least some components were struck.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826139567302303792

 

[Relic]

Several days ago Ukraine struck the massive Russia oil storage facility in Proletarsk, Rostov Oblast. This facility is one of Russia's largest and it was only built a few years ago. The facility continues to burn, with additional storage tanks catching fire. 22 of the 44 storage tanks have already caught fire. The cost of the damage / loss of oil is upwards of $250 million usd.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826324394051874922

 

[contricusc]

I agree that the financial burden of supporting Ukraine is not large for the EU and can therefore be maintained as long as needed. I don't see Russia being able to sustain the cost of the war for as long as needed.

That’s exactly why Russia will lose in the end. Long attrition wars are won by the stronger economy.

 

[Bogeyman]

And they are US restrictions. They dont want russia to lose for whatever stupid reason.
Let Biden (and his administration) finally go and maybe next president will have some balls.

You're dreaming. Trump wants to leave Ukraine completely at the mercy of Russia. Kamala Harris won't do anything different than Biden.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826522730356720092

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826522740116832764

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826522749386260694

 

[TheInsider]

I expect Russia to break Ukraine in 24 months. Ukraine's eastern defences are cracking. By the way, I'm fully on Ukraine's side and I think the US should create a real functioning air force for Ukraine. Fighters should be operated by retired NATO pilots. This looks like the only way to level the playing field. Even then I don't think Ukraine has a chance to win unless Russian missile, UAV, shell, gliding bomb production is reduced to manageable levels.

 

[Strong AI]

German media reports this too.

Russia 'flies drones' over German nuclear power plant from North Sea

Russia is suspected of flying several drones, including military UAVs, over a nuclear power plant in Germany, state security officers said.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Spitfire9]

German media reports this too.

Russia 'flies drones' over German nuclear power plant from North Sea

Russia is suspected of flying several drones, including military UAVs, over a nuclear power plant in Germany, state security officers said.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Good to hear - could take Germany one step closer to supplying the Taurus strike asset to Ukraine.

 

[contricusc]

You're dreaming. Trump wants to leave Ukraine completely at the mercy of Russia. Kamala Harris won't do anything different than Biden.

Nobody knows what Trump will do once in office. This will be his second term, so he doesn’t have to compromise for the electorate, as he can’t run again. And don’t forget that Trump voters are sheep, they agree with whatever he says, so if he suddenly decides to win the war for Ukraine, his supporters will see strength in this.

Trump’s policy towards this war is unknown. Nobody knows how he will act after he meets Zelensky and visits Ukraine. He may change his opinion 180 degrees after that. And he will need to be tough on Russia just to prove to the media that he is not Putin’s puppet. Russians think that Trump will save them, but they thought the same with Meloni in Italy, and in the end she has been more hawkish against Russia than the old establishment.

 

[contricusc]

I expect Russia to break Ukraine in 24 months.

People expected Russia to break Ukraine in three days, and they couldn’t in two years. If the expectation now is 24 months, than it means they won’t be able to do it in two centuries.