Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Bojan]

Before being attacked there was always the chance that Russia would choose to attack Ukraine. Now Russia has demonstrated that risk was very grave by attacking Ukraine, I would say that Ukraine's only chance of future security is to be part of some mutual military alliance. In negotiations to end the war Ukraine cannot agree to anything less than joining NATO in my opinion.

True, but that means Russia will fight to the end. Russians still dream of an empire, and without Ukraine they will never have an empire.

 

[TheInsider]

Here is the problem
As far as my info goes, kursk is a flat area and difficult to defend
Therefore, if Ukraine did do your theory, then I expect them to lose kursk back to the Russian forces within 2 months albeit with a bit more casualities on the Russian side

When it comes to such a point; I would start wondering, what was the point of the kursk operation if they were set to lose it again to the Russians in the first place.... and keep in mind that whatever Russia gains in Donbass would be extremely difficult for Ukraine to retake back

The only solution for Ukraine in the kursk frontline is to go deeper and deeper until Putin capitulates which is never gonna happen. Consequently, the kursk operation was a failure

@TheInsider
Why do you think so? In Kursk oblast Ukraine still wages war of maneuver with prospect of gaining all territory south of Seym river, now that the bridges over that river are destroyed and Kursk can no longer be transport hub for Russians on Kharkiv direction. In Donbass or Kherson direction these, some of the best Ukrainian troops would be engaged in positional warfare against superior Russian artillery, gaining nothing. It's wrong in the war to hold territory that offers no tactical advantage, so Ukrainians made a good move.

Just look at river Seym that passes through Kursk, no bridges equals harder logistics for Russians on Kharkiv direction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seym_(river)#/map/0

Russians mostly left the west of the Seym River. When I say Ukraine should fortify the west of the river I'm talking about capturing rest of the area and ceasing operations east of the river Ukraine also shouldn't move deeper than 30-40km as this will stretch the logistics thin. It will be harder and harder to provide logistics and fire support for friendly troops.

Kursk might be a flat area but most of the Ukraine and Russia are. Donbas is also flat. There are villages, towns, and woods/forests that can be fortified. Seym River is a natural obstacle. 10 brigades are barely enough for an offensive but you can defend with half of that in a well fortified position. Ukraine already took enough to be a bargaining chip what is the end game? Sieging Kursk? The main target should be the Glushkovsky district that lies between the Ukranian border and west of the Seym River and if possible Korenevo.

Russians took half of the Novohrodivka at the Donbass front and it is not looking good. Russians make steady gains everyday. Strategic Pokrovsk town will be the next target.

 

[FiReFTW]

Russia is about 146 million people and Ukraine about 47 million but that doesn't matter because armies are always much smaller, and you can't send draftees and policemen to fight in the frontlies. Armies fight, not the whole population. Also, Russian objective is not only Donbass region but destroying Ukraine as a nation and putting in Kyiv Russian marionette regime. This Kursk incursion proved that Russians are already stretched thin with vast borders with no defense, because they had no even two brigades to spare for the defense of Kursk oblast, that they are ineffective in strategic and operational level because they allowed Donbass offensive to degrade to positional trench warfare, and had shown very little of modern (WWII era and newer) warfare. Meanwhile Ukrainians will use river Seym as natural defensive line if the situation worsens. Also, Russians progress in Donbass region which proclaimed secession on Ukraine in favor of Russia where population is friendly to them while Ukraine in Kursk region does not and look at the gains of both sides since August 6th.

lol, Ukraine had a population of around 40 million BEFORE the war, now there are around 12-15 million people who have fleed the country or are missing and displaced + all the casualties of the war so far.

There might be 25-28 million actual people in Ukraine as of now, 50% of which are women, and from the other 50% which is around 12-14 million a huge chunk of them are bellow 18 or over 55-60

Realistically Ukraine has maybe 3-4 million men of fighting age

Russia's population was 143 million not 146 million before the war with Ukraine, lets count around 250-300.000 casualties so far (im taking US numbers don't give me those BS Ukranian propaganda numbers lol), so we are left with 142.7 million people.

Discounting women and people bellow 18 or over 55-60 we are left with

around 25-28 million men of fighting age


Summary

Ukraine 3-4 million men of fighting age
Russia 25-28 million men of fighting age

Its not even close, if Ukraine will be stubborn enough and grind this war long enough, they will pretty much be doomed, and their future also

 

[Yasar_TR]

lol, Ukraine had a population of around 40 million BEFORE the war, now there are around 12-15 million people who have fleed the country or are missing and displaced + all the casualties of the war so far.

There might be 25-28 million actual people in Ukraine as of now, 50% of which are women, and from the other 50% which is around 12-14 million a huge chunk of them are bellow 18 or over 55-60

Realistically Ukraine has maybe 3-4 million men of fighting age

Russia's population was 143 million not 146 million before the war with Ukraine, lets count around 250-300.000 casualties so far (im taking US numbers don't give me those BS Ukranian propaganda numbers lol), so we are left with 142.7 million people.

Discounting women and people bellow 18 or over 55-60 we are left with

around 25-28 million men of fighting age


Summary

Ukraine 3-4 million men of fighting age
Russia 25-28 million men of fighting age

Its not even close, if Ukraine will be stubborn enough and grind this war long enough, they will pretty much be doomed, and their future also

Nice calculation!
But in 1973 Yom Kippur war, 3 million Israelis with 400 thousand soldiers; fought against 37million Egyptians, 7 million Syrians, 7 million Saudis and a Moroccan, Iraqi and Cuban contingents with an army over a million soldiers, and still won.
It is not quantity that matters. It is the will to fight, quality of equipment and the support behind the fighting forces that decide in the end.
Don’t forget and discount the effect of the fractured federal structure of Russia either.

 

[Relic]

New military aid package from USA announced today. A fairly standard package consisting mostly of the staple weaponry Ukraine uses. The package is valued at $125 million usd and consists of the following:

- Counter drone systems
- Counter drone munitions
- ATACMS / GMLRS for HIMARS
- 155mm artillery shells
- 105mm artillery shells
- TOW missiles for Bradley IFVs
- Javelin anti-armor systems
- AT4 anti-armor rockets
- HMMWV ambulances
- Small arms ammunition
- Medical equipment
- Demolitions equipment
- Spare parts and ancillary equipment
- Training and transportation

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

DOD announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.

www.defense.gov

 

[Spitfire9]

lol, Ukraine had a population of around 40 million BEFORE the war, now there are around 12-15 million people who have fleed the country or are missing and displaced + all the casualties of the war so far.

There might be 25-28 million actual people in Ukraine as of now, 50% of which are women, and from the other 50% which is around 12-14 million a huge chunk of them are bellow 18 or over 55-60

Realistically Ukraine has maybe 3-4 million men of fighting age

Russia's population was 143 million not 146 million before the war with Ukraine, lets count around 250-300.000 casualties so far (im taking US numbers don't give me those BS Ukranian propaganda numbers lol), so we are left with 142.7 million people.

Discounting women and people bellow 18 or over 55-60 we are left with

around 25-28 million men of fighting age


Summary

Ukraine 3-4 million men of fighting age
Russia 25-28 million men of fighting age

Its not even close, if Ukraine will be stubborn enough and grind this war long enough, they will pretty much be doomed, and their future also

I don't follow your numbers. To keep it simple, I'll suppose in 2022

140 million in Russia
40 million in Ukraine
Russia population is 3.5 times Ukraine population.

I think the probability of Russia having 6-9 times as many men of fighting age as Ukraine is extremely low. I think you must have made some extremely unrealistic assumptions to arrive at your figures.

If one man attacks another and that man stubbornly defends himself in an ensuing fight, who is stubbornly prolonging the fight - the attacker or the defender?

 

[Agha Sher]

Nice calculation!
But in 1973 Yom Kippur war, 3 million Israelis with 400 thousand soldiers; fought against 37million Egyptians, 7 million Syrians, 7 million Saudis and a Moroccan, Iraqi and Cuban contingents with an army over a million soldiers, and still won.
It is not quantity that matters. It is the will to fight, quality of equipment and the support behind the fighting forces that decide in the end.
Don’t forget and discount the effect of the fractured federal structure of Russia either.

Low quality comparison. Arab armies and population is worth nothing in modern times.

 

[Lool]

Nice calculation!
But in 1973 Yom Kippur war, 3 million Israelis with 400 thousand soldiers; fought against 37million Egyptians, 7 million Syrians, 7 million Saudis and a Moroccan, Iraqi and Cuban contingents with an army over a million soldiers, and still won.
It is not quantity that matters. It is the will to fight, quality of equipment and the support behind the fighting forces that decide in the end.
Don’t forget and discount the effect of the fractured federal structure of Russia either.

This wasnt the only reason why the Arab alliance lost though

The major reason why Israel won against the Arab alliance at the time wasnt only due quality of equipment, but espionage and they boasted about how their spies infiltrated so deep that they were present during the decision-making for the strategies during the war in the Egyptian and Syrian operation command. Watching their documentaries and they will narrte how their spies mangaed to marry the daughter of the then Egyptian president Abd El Nasser and was in hold of critical documents that aided Israel's victory in the first 2 wars

Moreover, the arabs in general are traitorous by nature; the israelis boasted about how the Moroccan king and the Jordanian king used to secretly record top-level meetings with Egyptian generals regarding the war and timing of attack and handing them over to Israel in return for American support for the formerly mentioned royal families to solidify their rule and this is further proven when the Egyptian President Anwar El Sadat said that he stopped talking to Jordanian royal family regarding the war since they find it strange that the Israelis always know where the egyptians will fight after every meeting (and this is one of the reasons why Egypt wont the 3rd war against Israel)

 

[contricusc]

As far as I can tell Trump could be even more hawkish then current Biden administration. For Putin withdrawing from Ukraine would be a defeat, key reason Russia entered the war was to prevent Ukraine joining NATO.

Putin will be faced with various forms of defeat. He will not have a choice between victory and defeat, but between various forms of negotiated defeats.

Ukraine will join NATO. Theree is no IF about it. They already received lots of advanced NATO weaponry and have one of the most experienced fighting forces in the world right now. NATO will not allow such a formidable army to remain outside the alliance after the war is over. After all the investment in Ukraine’s military, they must be crazy to leave it outside the alliance.

Putin made the wrong bet and lost. By continuing the war, he just digs his hole deeper and will have even worse options at the negotiation table. The longer the war drags on, the better armed Ukraine becomes, and less willing to accept unfavorable terms at negotiations.

Ukraine is already able to strike airports, ferries, oil refineries and depots inside Russia, hundreds of kilometers from the border. They didn’t have this capability two years ago. Their deep strike capabilities will only improve from now, with donations of more advanced missiles and own production of better drones.

The more Ukraine can hurt Russia, the less likely it is to accept any peace agreement that doesn’t include the restoration of the 1991 borders and NATO membership.

Everyone underestimates the accumulated hatred Ukrainians have now against the Russians, after all the suffering. I bet most Ukrainians are now more interested in destroying Russia than restoring their country. The desire of vengeance is the biggest motivator in war.

 

[Bojan]

lol, Ukraine had a population of around 40 million BEFORE the war, now there are around 12-15 million people who have fleed the country or are missing and displaced + all the casualties of the war so far.

There might be 25-28 million actual people in Ukraine as of now, 50% of which are women, and from the other 50% which is around 12-14 million a huge chunk of them are bellow 18 or over 55-60

Realistically Ukraine has maybe 3-4 million men of fighting age

Russia's population was 143 million not 146 million before the war with Ukraine, lets count around 250-300.000 casualties so far (im taking US numbers don't give me those BS Ukranian propaganda numbers lol), so we are left with 142.7 million people.

Discounting women and people bellow 18 or over 55-60 we are left with

around 25-28 million men of fighting age


Summary

Ukraine 3-4 million men of fighting age
Russia 25-28 million men of fighting age

Its not even close, if Ukraine will be stubborn enough and grind this war long enough, they will pretty much be doomed, and their future also

Even with your numbers, Russia can't deploy more than 550-600 000 troops in the war, and this has shown so far that war is very unpopular among Russians themselves. And Ukrainians beat them multiple times (battle of Kyiv, battle of Kharkiv, battle of Kherson). Russian front is stretched thin as this Kursk incursion shows. Where are those millions of Russians when Putin needs them?

 

[Bojan]

Nice calculation!
But in 1973 Yom Kippur war, 3 million Israelis with 400 thousand soldiers; fought against 37million Egyptians, 7 million Syrians, 7 million Saudis and a Moroccan, Iraqi and Cuban contingents with an army over a million soldiers, and still won.
It is not quantity that matters. It is the will to fight, quality of equipment and the support behind the fighting forces that decide in the end.
Don’t forget and discount the effect of the fractured federal structure of Russia either.

I must add this, Arab armies are notorious for nepotism and inadequacy of command, so I'd like you to point to me a single instance when they won the war in modern times. True, that goes for Russia partially, but Russian military is much more credible threat.

 

[Bojan]

Russians mostly left the west of the Seym River. When I say Ukraine should fortify the west of the river I'm talking about capturing rest of the area and ceasing operations east of the river Ukraine also shouldn't move deeper than 30-40km as this will stretch the logistics thin. It will be harder and harder to provide logistics and fire support for friendly troops.

Kursk might be a flat area but most of the Ukraine and Russia are. Donbas is also flat. There are villages, towns, and woods/forests that can be fortified. Seym River is a natural obstacle. 10 brigades are barely enough for an offensive but you can defend with half of that in a well fortified position. Ukraine already took enough to be a bargaining chip what is the end game? Sieging Kursk? The main target should be the Glushkovsky district that lies between the Ukranian border and west of the Seym River and if possible Korenevo.

Russians took half of the Novohrodivka at the Donbass front and it is not looking good. Russians make steady gains everyday. Strategic Pokrovsk town will be the next target.

I'd say if the Ukrainians can solidify advances and have enough operational reserves would be to strike Belgorod. Then Russian army at Kharkiv direction is doomed, with all transport hubs for its logistics lost.

 

[FiReFTW]

I don't follow your numbers. To keep it simple, I'll suppose in 2022

140 million in Russia
40 million in Ukraine
Russia population is 3.5 times Ukraine population.

I think the probability of Russia having 6-9 times as many men of fighting age as Ukraine is extremely low. I think you must have made some extremely unrealistic assumptions to arrive at your figures.

If one man attacks another and that man stubbornly defends himself in an ensuing fight, who is stubbornly prolonging the fight - the attacker or the defender?

Do you understand that around 30-35% of ukranian pre war population has fleed to europe and many other countries or do you not comprehand that?

 

[FiReFTW]

Even with your numbers, Russia can't deploy more than 550-600 000 troops in the war, and this has shown so far that war is very unpopular among Russians themselves. And Ukrainians beat them multiple times (battle of Kyiv, battle of Kharkiv, battle of Kherson). Russian front is stretched thin as this Kursk incursion shows. Where are those millions of Russians when Putin needs them?

Russia has a huge boarder so its not hard to make such incursions, also they seem to be focusing heavily on gaining Ukranian territory which is slowly but surely happening, they don't seem to care much about this incursion and don't fall for the trap that it represents which is moving russian troops away from ukraine where the ukranians are struggling alot.

 

[Bojan]

Russia has a huge boarder so its not hard to make such incursions, also they seem to be focusing heavily on gaining Ukranian territory which is slowly but surely happening, they don't seem to care much about this incursion and don't fall for the trap that it represents which is moving russian troops away from ukraine where the ukranians are struggling alot.

In that process they will have many casualties due to nature of frontline in Donbass (positional trench warfare). On the other hand they must answer the incursion in Kursk region, if they don't that may jeopardize the whole army in Kharkiv direction, because Belgorod is next ìf they don't answer.

Seym (river) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Zoom it and you'll see Russians on Kharkiv direction have two logistics routes, Moscow-Kursk and Voronezh-Belgorod. I'm not an officer in the Army but I read Von Manstein's excellent book on generalship from 1963.

 

[Spitfire9]

Do you understand that around 30-35% of ukranian pre war population has fleed to europe and many other countries or do you not comprehand that?

I am aware of that. Are you aware of what proportion of those emigrants are women and children? I am not but the Ukrainians in my extended family who moved to other countries because of the invasion are women and children, not men. That indicates that if a million leave, it will not reduce the number of men of fighting age in Ukraine proportionately. As you must be aware those men are barred from leaving Ukraine although some manage to cross into other countries illegally.

Men aged 18-60 are not allowed to leave Ukraine. Men under 27 were not required to do military service. That limit is being reduced to men under the age of 25 not being required to do military service, making a large number of extra men qualify for service.

 

[FiReFTW]

I am aware of that. Are you aware of what proportion of those emigrants are women and children? I am not but the Ukrainians in my extended family who moved to other countries because of the invasion are women and children, not men. That indicates that if a million leave, it will not reduce the number of men of fighting age in Ukraine proportionately. As you must be aware those men are barred from leaving Ukraine although some manage to cross into other countries illegally.

Men aged 18-60 are not allowed to leave Ukraine. Men under 27 were not required to do military service. That limit is being reduced to men under the age of 25, making a large number of extra men qualify for service.

Quite a lot of men actually fleed but whatever the point is the manpower advantage of Russia is MASSIVE.

Ukraine will never win this war, the longer it drags on the worse it is for its population, generations will be wiped out of existance and the country will be in a dire state, I don't understand how some people don't comprehend that.

Yes the longer the war drags on the more impact it has on Russia also and the more it hurts Russia also, but at what cost.

You maybe don't realize that Europe or USA don't give a cr*p about Ukraine or its people, their whole purpose and goal is to hurt Russia as long as possible and as much as possible, but its Ukraine who is suffering the most in this.

 

[Spitfire9]

Quite a lot of men actually fleed but whatever the point is the manpower advantage of Russia is MASSIVE.

Ukraine will never win this war, the longer it drags on the worse it is for its population, generations will be wiped out of existance and the country will be in a dire state, I don't understand how some people don't comprehend that.

Yes the longer the war drags on the more impact it has on Russia also and the more it hurts Russia also, but at what cost.

You maybe don't realize that Europe or USA don't give a cr*p about Ukraine or its people, their whole purpose and goal is to hurt Russia as long as possible and as much as possible, but its Ukraine who is suffering the most in this.

Most Ukrainians would hate to live under the control of Russia. They want to live in a democratic country under the control of their own, Ukrainian government. They are prepared to fight and possibly die rather than see their freedom and identity disappear because that is what Putin wants. Putin has discovered that to his cost (not actually to his cost, rather to the cost of the people of Russia).

I agree that the US administration sees this as a proxy war against Russia. The longer it lasts, the better. The US - and the EU for that matter - can easily afford the cost involved with allowing Russia to destroy itself financially and militarily. What that costs the people of Ukraine is almost of no importance.

How do you end this war? The Ukrainians will not resign themselves to their country and culture being extinguished by Russia. As long as they are supplied with the means to resist the invasion ie munitions, intel etc, they will fight for their existence.

 

[Anastasius]

I have to admit, I'm also not particularly confident about a Ukrainian victory. You can talk about Kursk all you like but it doesn't change the fact that Russia started making pretty major gains in Ukraine once this operation got underway which leads me to suspect that Ukraine diverted a substantial amount of its forces that were defending the country for the invasion of Russia and no longer has enough to hold back the Russian advance.

People also need to remember that Russians generally don't give a crap about their territory. The reason they like having such a big amount of land despite not enough people to populate it and most of it being fairly underdeveloped is because it fits perfectly with the Russian strategy of defense in depth. To put it another way for the US to lose even one state to enemy action, even one as worthless as, say, Oregon would be a major catastrophe. But for Russia Kursk is mostly nothing. It could be a problem if Ukraine pushes deep enough south to flank the Russian forces occupying Ukraine and prevent them from being resupplied but it doesn't seem thus far like they have enough gas to make it happen.

Basically, Ukraine's strategy in Russia has multiple options:

1) Capture territory in the hopes of a stronger negotiating hand against Russia. Not really working all that well and Russia isn't falling for it.

2) Pivot down south in order to cut off Russian reinforcements. Again Russia seems to have anticipated that and this area is their main focus.

3) Attempt to sabotage enough of Russia's mission-critical infrastructure in order to hinder their war effort but as I said before, it doesn't seem like Ukraine has enough fuel in the tank to pull that off.

And to make it worse it doesn't look like even the Ukrainians themselves know what their actual objectives in Russia are. If I had to hazard a guess the initial idea was to prove to the Western powers, particularly the US, that Ukraine can still put up a fight and Russia is cowardly enough that there is no risk of escalation if NATO were to get involved a bit more seriously and provide more weapons and munitions to Ukraine but that didn't work - so now Ukraine is left wondering what now?

I want Ukraine to win from both a moral and self-interested perspective. I just don't see how anymore and I really hope the rest of the ex-USSR nations are paying attention and preparing themselves for the fallout.

 

[Spitfire9]

Just a reminder about the relative strength of Russia v its opponents in the Ukraine war

GDP
Russia - circa $2,250 billion
US+EU - circa $40,000 billion

Spending $100 billion-$200 billion a year on Ukraine is easily affordable for US+EU. They can do that indefinitely (internal politics allowing).