Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Your opinion is that Ukraine will be the first country unable to sustain the war. My opinion is that Russia will be the one that will find it harder and harder to keep up as the war drags on. Ukraine’s backers have unlimited resources compared to Russia, and their economies are not at war, so they can continue to provide both financial and military support for as long as it takes. So from this point of view, form Ukraine’s side, the war is sustainable long term from an economic and industrial point of view. Only the manpower issue is debatable.

On Russia’s side, while the manpower pool is not going to run out, the economic and industrial capacity to sustain the war may not be sufficient in the long term. It is more likely that a country faces a total economic collapse before it runs out of people to sustain a war.

My opinion is that Ukraine’s manpower can outlast Russia’s economy and industrial capacity, and if the West continues to give incremewntal support to Ukraine, there will be a point when Russia is simply unable to hold the equilibrium at the frontlines.

I agree - Ukrainian manpower long term is of concern to me.

Assuming the EU continues its support for democracy on its doorstep, I think that Ukraine can carry on fighting for years. Ukrainians want to retain their country's independence and culture by resisting the Russians. How many would be prepared to swap living in a free, democratic state for living under the control of a tyrannical foreign state? I think that most Ukrainians are far more motivated to defend their way of life that Russians are to end it.

No expert me but I doubt that AFU troops can retake their lost territory through soldiers retaking the ground. Russia has had the time required to set up considerable ground defences. I see the degradation of the logistics supporting the occupying Russian army as the way to beat them through forcing them to withdraw from untenable positions in areas where the population sees them as the occupying enemy. That may not be the case in Donetsk and Luhansk.

I agree that the financial burden of supporting Ukraine is not large for the EU and can therefore be maintained as long as needed. I don't see Russia being able to sustain the cost of the war for as long as needed.

 

[Relic]

The Netherlands announced that it is purchasing 51 radars for Ukraine, sensitive enough to detect drones. Delivery of the drones will be done in batches, starting in Q4 2024.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826303863584162126

 

[Relic]

Ukraine struck a Russian S-300 battery in Rostov Oblast. The fate of the entirety of the battery is not known, but at least some components were struck.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826139567302303792

 

[Relic]

Several days ago Ukraine struck the massive Russia oil storage facility in Proletarsk, Rostov Oblast. This facility is one of Russia's largest and it was only built a few years ago. The facility continues to burn, with additional storage tanks catching fire. 22 of the 44 storage tanks have already caught fire. The cost of the damage / loss of oil is upwards of $250 million usd.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826324394051874922

 

[contricusc]

I agree that the financial burden of supporting Ukraine is not large for the EU and can therefore be maintained as long as needed. I don't see Russia being able to sustain the cost of the war for as long as needed.

That’s exactly why Russia will lose in the end. Long attrition wars are won by the stronger economy.

 

[Bogeyman]

And they are US restrictions. They dont want russia to lose for whatever stupid reason.
Let Biden (and his administration) finally go and maybe next president will have some balls.

You're dreaming. Trump wants to leave Ukraine completely at the mercy of Russia. Kamala Harris won't do anything different than Biden.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826522730356720092

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826522740116832764

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826522749386260694

 

[TheInsider]

I expect Russia to break Ukraine in 24 months. Ukraine's eastern defences are cracking. By the way, I'm fully on Ukraine's side and I think the US should create a real functioning air force for Ukraine. Fighters should be operated by retired NATO pilots. This looks like the only way to level the playing field. Even then I don't think Ukraine has a chance to win unless Russian missile, UAV, shell, gliding bomb production is reduced to manageable levels.

 

[Strong AI]

German media reports this too.

Russia 'flies drones' over German nuclear power plant from North Sea

Russia is suspected of flying several drones, including military UAVs, over a nuclear power plant in Germany, state security officers said.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Spitfire9]

German media reports this too.

Russia 'flies drones' over German nuclear power plant from North Sea

Russia is suspected of flying several drones, including military UAVs, over a nuclear power plant in Germany, state security officers said.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Good to hear - could take Germany one step closer to supplying the Taurus strike asset to Ukraine.

 

[contricusc]

You're dreaming. Trump wants to leave Ukraine completely at the mercy of Russia. Kamala Harris won't do anything different than Biden.

Nobody knows what Trump will do once in office. This will be his second term, so he doesn’t have to compromise for the electorate, as he can’t run again. And don’t forget that Trump voters are sheep, they agree with whatever he says, so if he suddenly decides to win the war for Ukraine, his supporters will see strength in this.

Trump’s policy towards this war is unknown. Nobody knows how he will act after he meets Zelensky and visits Ukraine. He may change his opinion 180 degrees after that. And he will need to be tough on Russia just to prove to the media that he is not Putin’s puppet. Russians think that Trump will save them, but they thought the same with Meloni in Italy, and in the end she has been more hawkish against Russia than the old establishment.

 

[contricusc]

I expect Russia to break Ukraine in 24 months.

People expected Russia to break Ukraine in three days, and they couldn’t in two years. If the expectation now is 24 months, than it means they won’t be able to do it in two centuries.

 

[Lool]

People already know that the Kursk operation was an act of desperation to bait Putin but it failed yet he said this shit
He really should have placed those highly trained soldiers in the Donbass front since it is more strategic and valuable than kursk

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826667814649798741

 

[Spitfire9]

People already know that the Kursk operation was an act of desperation to bait Putin but it failed yet he said this shit
He really should have placed those highly trained soldiers in the Donbass front since it is more strategic and valuable than kursk

It was a good move politically to take some Russian territory. Now that 3 bridges used by Russia to supply Kursk are gone it is not going to be easy for Russia to retake it.

 

[contricusc]

He really should have placed those highly trained soldiers in the Donbass front since it is more strategic and valuable than kursk

I know it hurts when Russia gets beaten up, but let’s try to be serious for a moment.

The Kursk incursion captured more territory in two weeks than Russia did since the start of the year (8 months). Why would you use those troop to stop the last two weeks of Russian advances in the Donbass (to save 20 sqkm) when you can use them to attack Kursk and take 1250 sqkm?

I know Russian supporters are desperate to see how effective Ukrainians have been on taking Russian territory compared to the snail pace of Russian advances, but to say this is a mistake it’s just hilarious.

Invading Kursk was the best strategic decision of Ukraine since the blitz that helped regain a lot of territory in the Kharkov region. Of course it makes Russian supporters angry.

 

[Lool]

It was a good move politically to take some Russian territory. Now that 3 bridges used by Russia to supply Kursk are gone it is not going to be easy for Russia to retake it.

Politically yes but this is the last thing to care about when their own land is being invaded by the Russians! Furthermore, retaking Kursk will ge way less costly compared to retaking Donbass both in terms of personnel and weaponry

Moreover, Kursk is mostly flat (as far as I know) while the Donbass region is a bloody natural fortress that is rich in natural resources...... it is a no brainer that Donabss should be given priority

 

[Lool]

I know it hurts when Russia gets beaten up, but let’s try to be serious for a moment.

The Kursk incursion captured more territory in two weeks than Russia did since the start of the year (8 months). Why would you use those troop to stop the last two weeks of Russian advances in the Donbass (to save 20 sqkm) when you can use them to attack Kursk and take 1250 sqkm?

I know Russian supporters are desperate to see how effective Ukrainians have been on taking Russian territory compared to the snail pace of Russian advances, but to say this is a mistake it’s just hilarious.

Invading Kursk was the best strategic decision of Ukraine since the blitz that helped regain a lot of territory in the Kharkov region. Of course it makes Russian supporters angry.

Iam not a Russian supporter
I support Ukraine's cause for autonomy but I just hate Zelensky and his incompetency. What kind of idiot do you need to be to trust American demorcrats and to involve yourself in a war against an opponent that this 5 times your size in nearly every aspect by giving him an excuse to invade you

I will say it again; the kursk operation was meant to force Putin to relocate some of the Donabss fighters to the Kursk frontline in order to alleviate the immense pressure on Ukrainian army;[hell, reports on X (from pro-Ukrainian sources) were appearing that Ukrainian servicemen had to stay 30-40 days without being rotated while Russians where changing regularly on a 3-day basis..... this obviously failed!!]

Now Ukraine just opened another large front that it has no other choice but to invade deep in..... sooner or later, all the Ukrainian soldiers will be so deep that they will sooner or later get killed within the heart of Russia while Russia keeps on grabbing strategic lands within Donbass rhat they couldnt get for 2 years

 

[Spitfire9]

Now Ukraine just opened another large front that it has no other choice but to invade deep in..... sooner or later, all the Ukrainian soldiers will be so deep that they will sooner or later get killed within the heart of Russia while Russia keeps on grabbing strategic lands within Donbass rhat they couldnt get for 2 years

How do you get across the river Seym when you've blown the bridges? That stops everyone crossing - Ukrainians as well as Russians.

 

[Bogeyman]

Ukraine attempted to attack a nuclear power plant on occupied Russian territory.

Putin, Ukrayna'nın Kursk Nükleer Güç Santrali'ne saldırı girişiminde bulunduğunu söyledi

Rusya Devlet Başkanı Vladimir Putin, Uluslararası Atom Enerjisi Ajansı (UAEA) uzmanlarının yakında Kursk Nükleer Güç Santrali’ne (NGS) gelmesini umduklarını ifade ederek, "(Ukrayna) Düşman dün gece Kursk NGS'ye saldırı girişiminde bulundu." dedi. - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826723430412288381

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826720425470054846