TR 2023 Turkish presidential election

[bisbis]

Does saying "I am an Alawite, I do not take peoples rights" means "you are a Sunni, you are not true, you are bad"? However, what happened while the president was elected was not a sign of how to be right! Muharrem İnce's right was not a right. What bad games they played Muharrem ince by Chp. The man speaks loudly at his rallies.

Please, politicians should no longer try to look different than they are just to look cute to the voters.

 

[Bozan]

No, neither İnönü nor Özal were Kurdish. Today, you have to accept that the PKK terrorist organization had to express themselves as Kurds at gunpoint. In this region, there is no other race other than Turks, Arabs, Persians and Armenians. There is no race called 'Kurd', which the English brought out for use from those who are a mixture of these. It is useless to comment on this issue without knowing the games played by the British in the Arabian Peninsula and the Far East in the 19th and 20th centuries. At the end of the tutelage period, they began to reveal the fact that even the history of the 20th century mother tongue republic was written incorrectly by an Armenian and taught in schools. It is enough to read the book series "Shame on history that lies", which most people do not know, which has been tried many times and has been acquitted because of its evidence.

Hahaha what ?

 

[godel44]

CHP says they want to return to the F-35 project. They have consistently communicated lackluster support for defense industry and outright hostility to Baykar. I suppose this will be it for MMU and much of the defense industry.

 

[TheInsider]

Ogan wants to win some votes and wants to negotiate with candidates who made it to the second round. He wants to be the kingmaker. I will vote for him in the first round.

 

[what]

CHP says they want to return to the F-35 project. They have consistently communicated lackluster support for defense industry and outright hostility to Baykar. I suppose this will be it for MMU and much of the defense industry.

I really try to not get involved in the politics threads. But if you read the election manifesto of the Alliance you could see that MMU will, of course, still be continued.

 

[Rooxbar]

This is not the 50s and 60s; nobody can discontinue shit, there's too much institutional backing and infrastructure behind it. Also, what are we good for if we just sit around and allow that shit? It's the era of speedy information my brother.

 

[Oublious]

My vote go for Cem Uzan....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649112733751574539

 

[YeşilVatan]

No, neither İnönü nor Özal were Kurdish. Today, you have to accept that the PKK terrorist organization had to express themselves as Kurds at gunpoint. In this region, there is no other race other than Turks, Arabs, Persians and Armenians. There is no race called 'Kurd', which the English brought out for use from those who are a mixture of these. It is useless to comment on this issue without knowing the games played by the British in the Arabian Peninsula and the Far East in the 19th and 20th centuries. At the end of the tutelage period, they began to reveal the fact that even the history of the 20th century mother tongue republic was written incorrectly by an Armenian and taught in schools. It is enough to read the book series "Shame on history that lies", which most people do not know, which has been tried many times and has been acquitted because of its evidence.

That's propestorous. Kurds do exist as an ethnic group. However, there are caveats to this:

1. Kurds are newcomers to the north of Şırnak-Hakkari line. They moved in considerable numbers during Selim the Grim's reign because of the secterian power struggle between Ottomans and Safavids. Before that, no large population shifts can be observed. Some tribes adventuring here and there is not a demographic change.
2. They were never the majority north of that line until the events of 1915. Armenians, Turks and Kurds were formed a majority-minority demographic strucure in the Eastern Anatolia before that. After, nomadic Kurds settled the desolate places and went through a population boom. Turks were reeling fro large scale Armenian massacres and were demographically drained.
3. PKK ethnically cleansed Turks of Eastern Anatolia by way of coercion and criminal pressure throughout the 80s-90s. Turks actually were pretty dominant in city centers in places like Diyerbakır and Muş, for example.

Özal was a Kurd. İnönü seems to be an Eastern Turk or at least thoroughly urbanized/Turkified person with some Kurdish lineage. Malatya is like that after all intermarriages are common.

 

[GoatsMilk]

You guys really think Erdogan suddenly started to mismanage the government in the past few years despite building Turkey's economy from the ground up just a decade ago? You don't even investigate for signs of an economic attack? The clues are all over if only you care to look. Things started going south in 2011 - 2012 when the Arab Spring started, and Erdogan supported it. Democracy in the Middle East is a mortal threat to the U.S. economy. I haven't the spec of a doubt Turkey is under a heavy U.S. economic attack. But I'm confident Erdogan will win and pull the country through this economic assault by the West. It's the their last chance now, so they are doing all they can secretly to bring the economy down so Erdogan losses the election. How can a leader who performed wonderfully for decades (starting from Istanbul) suddenly start failing? It's not natural.

Let me guess you don't know who this guy is?

Erdogan ran the Turkish economy right into the shitter, looking forward im expecting more of the same.

Lets be honest this cronyism was pinnacle AK party. Take his son in law and make him head of the central bank. A guy whose clueless and you wouldnt get him to run your kebab house let alone the central bank.

The guy was a such a disaster that when he was called on to make a speech to bring confidence back into the dying markets of the Turkish economy he went on national TV kept sweating profusely giving off the impression he's a dead man walking.

I'm Muslim but i cant stand people using religion to grift their way in life, the reality is the results have been shockingly bad on nearly all fronts. Actually anyone using religion to get ahead of others in life i find disgraceful.

If CHP wanted to win this election they only needed to concentrate on two areas, the economy and the massive influx of economic migrants. Bring realistic and reasonable policies to solve both issues and this would be an easy election for them. But no, instead we got to see Kilic going around meeting PKK affiliates who despise Turks, Islam and Turkiye. Its too obvious.

 

[Lool]

Excellent article
This article proves all my recent arguments on why Egypt, USA, Syria, Russia, and EU are playing hardball with Erdogan these days. It is because they are 100% sure that they are gonna get what they want from Turkey without even a shred of compromise from their side after Erdogan is gone...... sad times are ahead

I mean, When even germany wants Erdogan gone, lool
Translation:
British journalist David Hearst: “From Washington to Berlin, there are many politicians who will celebrate Erdogan's overthrow with champagne. KK intends to hand over the key of Turkey to the West. Erdogan's departure would be a disaster for Turkey and the Middle East.”

Would Kilicdaroglu surrender Turkey's independence?

The opposition leader's urge to please the US, EU and Nato would not bode well for the region

www.middleeasteye.net

 

[ADMusa]

If CHP wanted to win this election they only needed to concentrate on two areas, the economy and the massive influx of economic migrants.

Look, you can't convince any objective observer that a leader who performed so well economically in over a DECADE will suddenly lose touch with reality and start mismanaging things. Especially when there are signs of economic attacks all over the place. You may want to turn a blind eye to this because you dislike Erdogan, but that doesn't mean others are wrong.
I've seen how the U.S. destroyed Iran's economy, obliterated the Syrian pound, and destroyed the economies of Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Yemen, and Lebanon. While the U.S. had been overt in its attack against these other countries, it has taken great caution to hide its attack on Turkiye's economy. This is why it'll take some effort to understand the nature of this attack.

Turkey's economy was attacked to help the opposition oust Erdogan.

 

[Afif]

@Lool I think if Erdogan is gone, Turkish people would have 5 years to observe if their expectations from new leadership are met and reflect on the past if it was any better.
You are being judgmental too early.
If Turks chooses the opposition candidate and it turns out to be a bad choice, they are the one who are gonna have to bear the consequences. Not us, so let’s just wait and see.
The common sense that we can all agree on is, as long as democracy and rule of law nurtured in Turkey, fundamentally speaking, the country would to do just fine. Irrespective of who is in power.

I do think if the opposition comes to power, they are gonna uphold these two most fundamental pillars of the state. (As far as I read about them that what I conclude) If democracy and rule of law were actually threatened by the opposition coming into power, then we could have rightfully said, it would be a disaster for Turkey.

It is important to keep in mind, Foreign policy achievements does not determine an State's fundemental success, not in the long run. Because, a leader could achieve some foreign policy goals, while at the same time his country domestically could be on a brink of crisis. (I do not mean Mr. Erdogan here, it would be too loaded)

I am not a student of political science but my humble understanding is, A state's long term success is determined by coherent domestic institutional functionality hence producing strategic autonomy in education, economics and defence. And 70% to 75% of this coherent functionality depends on the state of democratic practices and rule of law in country. Because, ultimately these two pave the way for better domestic policy choices as they keeps critical checks and balances in place. (For example, separations of power, less centralization and more participation in policy making, etc)
In a nutshell, it has much less to do with foreign policy successes (to be more accurate, foreign policy gambles that are sometime successful) that we primarily assume.

 

[ADMusa]

Didn't read after first sentence, you are wasting your time. You can't fool anyone here with youtr fantasies.

A Nigerian trying to teach me about my county, what else are we going to see?

Yeah, if you read the first sentence well, you'll notice I mentioned "the Muslim world", which is much bigger than Turkey.

 

[ADMusa]

I'm gonna defend our Nigerian friend a bit here and then draw different conclusions. The west is not happy with Erdogan, you can see this in the way they ordered their lackeys in the Gulen movement to attack them when Erdogan didn't back off from helping Iran circumvent sanctions (along with a slew of other reasons which convinced Washington Erdogan is no longer a good boy), first a la Lula in 2013 corruption scandal, second a la Maduro in 2016 coup attempt. But would the Empire stop at that? No, they have infinite resources and practically think they're infallible. So slowly but surely you bring up the heat by giving the hint to rating agencies to start downgrading the country's debt rating and then you bring in money to short the currency in Forex; anybody looking from afar will see this and gander a guess that a crisis is brewing and take their money out and it doesn't help when you have a government which is through no good of its own, riddled with mismanagement and corruption reinforcing the already bad situation. This has happened to many geopolitical naughty boys and the consistent response by these nations has been to get into paranoia mode and start seeing ghosts even where there is none, jailing any naysayers suspecting them of having foreign overlords, starting to doubt orthodox economic policies and policy recommendation by big firms and hedge funds. This "everybody is out there to get me" attitude then leads to even more instability and chaos.

Now, rational actors can foresee certain responses to geopolitical actions they take against the Empire and can ameliorate them through a series of prophylactic actions a la Russia in the 7 years leading up to the war, or China after the 1999 bombing of their embassy in Belgrade, or leading up to the 2021 Huawei ban. Irrational actors cannot foresee anything and get tangled up more in their own mess than whatever net the Empire was trying to cast. The economic woes of Turkey are mainly due to this and other fundamental problems created by AKP governemnt even before the 2013 falling out with the U.S.

U.S. was obviously hoping for a currency crash for Russia in the aftermath of sanctions, which happened in the short-term, then only to recover to all-time highs later. This doesn't mean the sanctions didn't work, but they worked much less than expected and much slower. And more importantly they were literal sanctions, something U.S. never enacted against Turkey because there was no adequate rationalization for it.

So yes, U.S. has tried to mess with Erdogan and his regime through economic manipulation. But no, Turkey's economic woes are not due to this, or not at least as a main factor. If you borrow credit with 10% from shady actors instead of 3% from IMF or other major banks, because you cannot get yourself to be transparent about how you're gonna spend it or enact anti-laundry laws as a guarantee, that's not on U.S. When you put the most incompetent people in charge of the economy and then ignore even those incompetent people to enact heterodox policies and economic trial and error in times of turmoil, that's just on you. AKP was lucky to come to power during 2000-2008 when excess money in the first world was so much that they were just searching for places to put their excess money to and Turkey became one destination due to Erdogan being enough of a good boy to help as much as it could with the Iraq and Afghanistan invasions and chastise those in parliament who voted against it, and not bring up Eastern Mediterranean against EU claims, and jail whoever did in Ergenekon and Balyoz. This flood of investment then was put into some of the worst places you could imagine but it was so much that it still lead to an increase in prosperity and infrastructure projects as there was still enough legal trust in the Turkish jurisprudence due to AKP-Gulen alliance being promoted as a reformist brand of Islam that was democratic, unlike that other icky kind of terrorists which U.S. and the west had nothing to do with (wink wink). After that money dried up since 2008/09 financial crisis, since then Turkey's problems have been apparent to anyone who has been looking. The share of value added content in Turkey's exports is like 3.5%; the lowly neighbor Greece is 11%. Turkey has one of the highest brain drain rates in the world. Some of the lowest papers published per university among OECD nations. And there has been minimal effort to specialize universities based on local industry and link factories and faculties. None of these structural problems were brought upon Turkey in smoke-filled rooms in Washington.

So yes, U.S. has tried to mess with Erdogan and his regime through economic manipulation. But no, Turkey's economic woes are not due to this, or not at least as a main factor. If you borrow credit with 10% from shady actors instead of 3% from IMF or other major banks, because you cannot get yourself to be transparent about how you're gonna spend it or enact anti-laundry laws as a guarantee, that's not on U.S. When you put the most incompetent people in charge of the economy and then ignore even those incompetent people to enact heterodox policies and economic trial and error in times of turmoil, that's just on you.

You have actually tried to reinforce the idea that Erdogan, who had managed the economy well for many years, suddenly employed the wrong people and started mismanaging the economy. And this happened exactly when the West was trying to get rid of him, from 2013 till date. Colour revolution in 2013 failed. The coup in 2016 failed. The attempt to start a war between Turkey and Russia in Syrian failed. Their last card is now the Turkish opposition. Biden said it clearly they will support the Turkish opposition. This should be enough to open the eyes of all Turks as to America's plans for their country.

Erdogan stated in 2018 that the West has attacked Turkey's economy. He didn't have to say that for me to see it. Anyone who's studied the way America deals with independent regimes will clearly see they employed the same method on Turkey, only mover covertly.

 

[Lool]

@Lool I think if Erdogan is gone, Turkish people would have 5 years to observe if their expectations from new leadership are met and reflect on the past if it was any better.
You are being judgmental too early.
If Turks chooses the opposition candidate and it turns out to be a bad choice, they are the one who are gonna have to bear the consequences. Not us, so let’s just wait and see.
The common sense that we can all agree on is, as long as democracy and rule of law nurtured in Turkey, fundamentally speaking, the country would to do just fine. Irrespective of who is in power.

This is the problem.... Turkey has no time to waste
For those who are too blind to notice, the Middle East is heating up way too fast with all of Turkey's enemies are arming up while Turkey's most probably next presidential candidate knows next to nothing about foreign policy

-The party leader, KK, believes that Baykar should be nationalised and his party members were attacking it on numerous occasions

-The same party was criticising Togg 6 month ago in which one of the CHP representatives who visisted the company stated "we dont need Togg since we have many foreign companies manufacturing cars in our country"

-The same party pro-media was criticising TCG Anadolu stating that it is a waste of money since it can be downed with 2 missiles

-The same party alliance wants to get the hell out from Libya, Qatar, Somalia, Azerbaijan, and Syria even when all the surrounding nations are either eyeing Turkey's territorial waters or Turkey's Eastern land borders and cities

-the same party promised a "special budget" to Hurjet even though it isnt a state-financed program in their election manifesto. Rumors that they soent more than 72 hours discussing such manifesto yet they couldnt even point such an error? Then what the hell were they even discussing

@Afif the famous saying of "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" explains pretty much everything Turkey is facing rn. Kemal Kilicdaroglu must never ever be the one to replace Erdogan. I agree that the AKP became corrupt and withered but even so Erdogan has some principles he is operating on. However, Kilicdaroglu throws such principles out of the window with his unimaginable ignorance. If Yavas were to rule instead, then the CHP should be given the chance but kilicdaroglu is just a big NO

 

[ADMusa]

How do you feel about Erdogan helping Iran avoid sanctions or improving trade relations with Israel ? Was that Allah's help as well

What about when he said Arabs belong in a desert?

That wouldn't be a problem if Erdogan were a Western puppet. It's halaal to help Iran against Western aggression. It's also halaal to trade with Israel. But it's haram to be their puppets like the Saudis and Emiratis are.

If Erdogan said Arabs belong do a desert, then he's referring to the sellouts. Obviously, the prophet SAWS was an Arab.

 

[Rooxbar]

You have actually tried to reinforce the idea that Erdogan, who had managed the economy well for many years, suddenly employed the wrong people and started mismanaging the economy. And this happened exactly when the West was trying to get rid of him, from 2013 till date. Colour revolution in 2013 failed. The coup in 2016 failed. The attempt to start a war between Turkey and Russia in Syrian failed. Their last card is now the Turkish opposition. Biden said it clearly they will support the Turkish opposition. This should be enough to open the eyes of all Turks as to America's plans for their country.

Erdogan stated in 2018 that the West has attacked Turkey's economy. He didn't have to say that for me to see it. Anyone who's studied the way America deals with independent regimes will clearly see they employed the same method on Turkey, only mover covertly.

America as I said (and you should learn from their latest coup attempts in Venezuela) is not an omnipotent god. Even if you give them that kind of power, then that omnipotence should help them destroy economies of countries they actually try to destroy with severe sanctions, like Russia and Iran. Turkey's economy is nowhere near under the same amount of pressure from the west as Russia or Iran's is, and our inflation in the past 3 years laps them 5 times.

 

[GoatsMilk]

America as I said (and you should learn from their latest coup attempts in Venezuela) is not an omnipotent god. Even if you give them that kind of power, then that omnipotence should help them destroy economies of countries they actually try to destroy with severe sanctions, like Russia and Iran. Turkey's economy is nowhere near under the same amount of pressure from the west as Russia or Iran's is, and our inflation in the past 3 years laps them 5 times.

They could destroy Turkiyes economy with relatively few sanctions, look at Trump during the pastor/halk bank scandal as an example.

Andrew Brunson: US hits Turkey with sanctions over jailed pastor

The US says the move is a response to Turkey’s failure to release jailed US pastor Andrew Brunson.

www.bbc.co.uk

The economy and its terrible performance is based on erdoeconomics and rampant corruption from top to bottom. The recovery process during the first 5 to 7 years was developed primarily by kemal dervis, a real economist with international accreditation. Once AK party left that behind the economy kept getting worse and worse and looking forward if he wins you can guarantee that Turkiye becomes a poorer and poorer country. So a vote for AK party 100% means that the average Turkish citizen will be made poorer. We have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that this man knows anything about state economics. Putting his pathetic other son in law in charge of the central bank exposed how lacking this man is as a statesman.

But on a side note the reason the Americans can't go down the line of destroying the Turkish economy outright is for several reasons. Too many western corporations make good business from Turkiye, so destroying the Turkish economy will economically cost the USA/West money.

Then their is the geopolitics, nearly the entire middle east doesn't like the Americans operating there. Outside pkk terrorists and a few lackeys dictators the americans are seen as two faced instigating trouble makers of the region and the biggest supporter of isreal, which outside Turkiye is generally despised by the rest of the middle east. Go after Turkiye's economy and the Americans will be dumped out of Turkiye and most likely their entire position in the region will come into question.

Then they lose the advantage of Turkiye geography being used to contain Russia. So they won't go after Turkiye's economy what they will do is things like feto, take the country from within and people will not even notice it.

Sanctions and embargoes can only ever be used to a degree to manipulate Turkish actions in the direction that favours US regional policy. They go too far and their entire position in the region is undermined.

But as far as this terrible economy is concerned its 90% rests on AK party and terrible performance.

 

[Rooxbar]

For our Nigerian friend's consumption: this graphic shows the correlation between Erdoğan's decision to lower interest rates for Central Bank's lending to banks and USD/TL exchange rate, increase of the latter is the main culprit for inflation. Inflation in turn in itself should lead to more increase in exchange rate which would be catastrophic so the government tries to control it through selling dollars which means TL in comparison to inflation gains real value against currencies of trading partners. Selling dollars by central bank, and increase in real value of TL and a double rate for foreign currency (resulting from capital controls to contain the increase in exchange rate) with special access to lower rates to wealthy well-connected importers, all increase the appeal of imports as opposed to exports; this in turn leads to current account deficit, leading to further pressure on the local currency, which makes the government need even more dollars to sell to stop it which means the government has to borrow more, and since inflation is high and current account deficit is also high, the government only can borrow at high rates due to bad credit score which leads to increasing foreign debt, increasing the risk of default in turn coming full circle and feeding into expectation of inflation (leading to pressure on exchange rate, more selling of dollars, more borrowing, worse credit score, more current account deficit) and the catch-22 that has only bankruptcy and defaut at the end of the tunnel. And all of these defense industry projects that everyone thinks are finished after the first prototype tests and you applaud as a sign of progress (which they are) will not see the light of day in terms of mass production in this scenario since you have to go for austerity measures after your inevitable default on debts and bankruptcy.

 

[GoatsMilk]

View attachment 56501

For our Nigerian friend's consumption: this graphic shows the correlation between Erdoğan's decision to lower interest rates for Central Bank's lending to banks and USD/TL exchange rate, increase of the latter is the main culprit for inflation. Inflation in turn in itself should lead to more increase in exchange rate which would be catastrophic so the government tries to control it through selling dollars which means TL in comparison to inflation gains real value against currencies of trading partners. Selling dollars by central bank, and increase in real value of TL and a double rate for foreign currency (resulting from capital controls to contain the increase in exchange rate) with special access to lower rates to wealthy well-connected importers, all increase the appeal of imports as opposed to exports; this in turn leads to current account deficit, leading to further pressure on the local currency, which makes the government need even more dollars to sell to stop it which means the government has to borrow more, and since inflation is high and current account deficit is also high, the government only can borrow at high rates due to bad credit score which leads to increasing foreign debt, increasing the risk of default in turn coming full circle and feeding into expectation of inflation (leading to pressure on exchange rate, more selling of dollars, more borrowing, worse credit score, more current account deficit) and the catch-22 that has only bankruptcy and defaut at the end of the tunnel. And all of these defense industry projects that everyone thinks are finished after the first prototype tests and you applaud as a sign of progress (which they are) will not see the light of day in terms of mass production in this scenario since you have to go for austerity measures after your inevitable default on debts and bankruptcy.

The general policy AK party has used is quite like a 1001 nights.

"One Thousand and One Nights is a collection of Middle Eastern and South Asian stories and folk tales compiled in Arabic during the Islamic Golden Age. The original Arabic title is Alf Layla wa-Layla, which means "One thousand nights and one night".

The stories are framed around the narrative of Scheherazade, a legendary queen who tells her husband, King Shahryar, a new story every night to delay her execution. The stories she tells are diverse and include fairy tales, romances, adventures, and tragedies, featuring characters such as Aladdin, Ali Baba, Sinbad the Sailor, and many others.

That's basically AK party administration across the decades, we will need many more stories and illusions to maintain the dire situation. From White Turks, to interest rate lobbies. From Ergenekon trails to FETO. Over the next decade many more outside threats that need to be fought against and many more blame games to cover up all the failure and corruption. Actually the whole "white Turk" thing looking back was hilarious. The "white Turks" were to blame for all the failings of the brown Turks, according to erdogan. Reminds me of how minorties in the west blame the common whites for all their current economic woes.

We will face constant turmoil's to distract the people and lots of enemies at the gates will be invented.

AK party or Erdogan have never taken any blame for any of the failings. Maybe he apologised for the poor super slow response to the earthquake, but thats maybe it.