Bangladesh’s integration into the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) network has entered a period of uncertainty amid Myanmar’s civil war, long-standing India–Pakistan hostility, and recent diplomatic strains between Bangladesh and India. Over the past 15 years, Bangladesh has invested about BDT 1 trillion in rail infrastructure to join the multilateral network.
Yet escalating geopolitical frictions and regional political instability have cast doubt on whether those investments will deliver the regional connectivity and commercial gains once envisaged. With transit and corridor arrangements largely centred on India, any further deterioration in bilateral ties would jeopardise not only Bangladesh’s linkage but the effective implementation of the entire TAR framework, officials and analysts say.
In 2007, Bangladesh signed an agreement to join the Trans-Asian Railway — a global initiative to streamline freight movement across Asia and Europe. The country has since then executed major upgrades to its rail system, including the Chattogram–Cox’s Bazar line, the Padma Bridge, the Padma Bridge rail link, and the Jamuna rail bridge.
Together, these four flagship projects cost about BDT 980 billion. The government has also completed a series of complementary projects, among them the Dhaka–Chattogram line upgrade, the Khulna–Mongla rail link, reopening of the Akhaura–Agartala route, and a new line from Pabna to Dhalarchar. Each was designed, in part, to anchor Bangladesh more firmly in the TAR network.
Despite the scale of investment, Bangladesh still lacks a direct rail connection with Myanmar. That gap has blocked practical links with South-East Asia’s rail systems and onward links to China, Malaysia, and other countries in the region. At the same time, the stalemate between India and Pakistan, prolonged political instability in Myanmar, and intensifying geopolitical competition among regional powers have pushed the wider corridor toward uncertainty, according to sector specialists.
Meanwhile, diplomatic friction between Dhaka and New Delhi has deepened following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina amid the student-led uprising on August 5, 2024. Analysts say the strain has injected fresh doubt into rail-based transit and corridor plans.
Large sections of the TAR network depend on cross-border movement, transit facilities, and port access for India’s north-eastern states via alternative routes through Bangladesh. These arrangements and concessions could erode if bilateral relations worsen. In such a scenario, plans to build a rail corridor linking north-eastern India, Bangladesh, and sub-regional markets could stall or lose practical relevance.
Bangladesh’s participation in the Trans-Asian Railway has fallen into uncertainty amid Asia’s current diplomatic and geopolitical dynamics, said Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue. “Joining the Trans-Asian Railway is not only about economic investment; it is also inherently geopolitical,” she told
Bonik Barta. “If relations among stakeholder countries are poor, the project cannot function. That is where we are now.
Political tensions persist among several Asian countries, and Bangladesh is part of that. As a result, Bangladesh’s integration into the Trans-Asian Railway has become uncertain. When multiple countries are involved and diplomatic and geopolitical ties do not improve, projects of this kind are simply not feasible.”
Officials at Bangladesh’s Ministry of Railways say the country is currently part of three TAR routes and a fourth proposed route. Route 1 enters Bangladesh at the Gede-Darshana border. It then runs via Ishurdi, the Jamuna Bridge, and Joydebpur to Tongi, before continuing through Akhaura, Chattogram, Dohazari, and Ramu. It then exits into Myanmar at the Gundum border. A sub-route of Route 1 branches from Akhaura and enters India via Shahbazpur in Kulaura.
Route 2 begins at Singhabad in India. It enters Bangladesh through the Rohanpur border in Chapainawabganj and runs via Rajshahi, Abdulpur, and Ishurdi, where it connects with Route 1. Route 3 also starts in India, at Radhikapur. It crosses into Bangladesh through the Birol border in Dinajpur and proceeds via Parbatipur, Abdulpur, and Ishurdi before merging with Route 1.
In addition to these three routes, Bangladesh Railway has proposed another TAR route — starting at Petrapole in India and entering Bangladesh through the Benapole border. It then runs through Jashore, Bhanga, Mawa, Dhaka, and Tongi before joining Route 1. All four routes converge on a 28-kilometre stretch from Ramu in Cox’s Bazar to the Gundum border with Myanmar. No railway line has been built along this section yet.
Bangladesh had earlier initiated construction of the Ramu–Gundum rail link under the Chattogram-Cox’s Bazar railway project. It later withdrew from the plan. Railway officials say Myanmar’s ongoing civil war, a deterioration in bilateral relations, and the presence of Rohingya refugee camps along the proposed route have emerged as key obstacles to implementation.
Commenting on the broader implications, Delwar Hossain, a professor in the Department of International Relations at the University of Dhaka, told
Bonik Barta that Bangladesh’s integration into the TAR network would inevitably slow under current conditions.
He added, “It’s true that domestic political instability, strained bilateral relations, and the wider geopolitical environment will reduce momentum. But because multiple countries are involved in such initiatives, they will remain engaged regardless of how the situation evolves and that’s only natural.”
Experts say the TAR network is not any single country’s project. It is a policy-driven, technology-led connectivity concept built on a multilateral framework. But growing geopolitical polarisation has weakened its political foundations. China-led corridors and parallel connectivity networks are advancing rapidly. Traditional multilateral initiatives meanwhile are struggling to secure political backing and trust.
As a result, although the project has not faced outright opposition, its pace of implementation has slowed and its strategic relevance has diminished. Analysts argue that the rail corridor remains technically feasible and commercially attractive. But its greatest uncertainty is now political, shaped by regional tensions, security concerns, and a widening trust deficit.
M Humayun Kabir, a former ambassador, told
Bonik Barta, “The initiative has effectively stalled. Yet if the region’s future needs and expectations are considered, the Trans-Asian Railway was necessary and remains so. Connectivity is essential for economic growth. That connectivity cannot be confined within national borders.”
The current uncertainty, he added, would serve no one in the long run. “That is precisely where hope lies. Countries cannot achieve their development ambitions without connectivity. To secure the growth they seek, there is no alternative to overcoming instability and strengthening regional links. The challenges are real. But necessity will ultimately push the initiative in a positive direction.”
Stakeholders note that the TAR network in South Asia inevitably revolves around India. Geography makes it impossible to build a continuous land corridor that bypasses Delhi. Rail links for Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Pakistan all ultimately depend on Indian tracks. On paper, the westbound route runs from Bangladesh into India via Gede, continuing to Kolkata, Delhi, and Attari, before crossing into Pakistan at Wagah and continuing through Iran and Turkey to Europe. Eastward, the concept rests on a land bridge through Myanmar to South-East Asia. To the north, Afghanistan is envisaged as a gateway to Central Asia. However, a continuous rail corridor linking Afghanistan with South Asia has yet to materialise.
In reality, political tensions grip almost every country on this map. The sharpest fault line lies between India and Pakistan. From a technical standpoint, the Dhaka–Delhi–Lahore–Tehran–Istanbul corridor is largely ready. Track infrastructure exists, gauge-change points have been identified, and freight trains have conducted trial runs over long distances.
Still, the corridor remains non-functional. Decades of political deadlock have turned rail connectivity into a security and strategic issue rather than a matter of trade or transit. Recent wars, the Kashmir dispute, border clashes, and severed diplomatic channels have rendered this section of the TAR network effectively unworkable.
Plans for a land link to South-East Asia via India and Myanmar have also stalled because of Myanmar’s internal conflict. Civil war, fighting between the military junta and rebel groups, and chronic border insecurity have transformed the country from a land bridge into a geopolitical buffer zone. The picture is more nuanced for Nepal and Bhutan.
Caught between Indian and Chinese competition, both countries move cautiously. Analysts also point to China’s Belt and Road Initiative as a major obstacle to TAR’s implementation. Many countries across South and Central Asia have gravitated towards Chinese corridors in search of rapid financing, visible infrastructure, and political backing. That shift has further eroded the appeal of the consensus-driven, negotiation-heavy Trans-Asian Railway initiative.
Over the past 15 years, Bangladesh has invested about BDT 1 trillion in rail infrastructure to join the multilateral network. Yet escalating geopolitical frictions and regional political instability have cast doubt on whether those investments will deliver the regional connectivity and...
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Russian Ambassador to Bangladesh Alexander Grigoryevich Khozin today (22 December) called for reducing tensions in Bangladesh to create a conducive environment before the next national election scheduled for 12 February next year.
During his first interaction with a small group of journalists since his arrival in Dhaka, the Ambassador also highlighted the importance of reducing Bangladesh's tensions with its neighbour India. "The sooner you reduce tensions with India, the better."
The interactive session was held at the Embassy of the Russian Federation.
Alexandra Khlevnoy, the Director of the Russian House in Dhaka, among others, spoke at the session.
Responding to a question, Ambassador Khozin said this (reducing tensions) is important for both countries and the entire South Asia region.
Touching upon geopolitical implications, he said they have read statements of both Bangladesh and India, including comments of Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain, and said the two sides are trying to find a balanced way to reduce tensions as soon as possible.
The Ambassador highlighted the role of India and Russia during 1971 and acknowledged India's help in gaining Bangladesh's independence - shoulder to shoulder together.
He said they are not interfering with the two countries' bilateral relations but they think it will be wise to find a way so that the tension does not escalate further from the current level.
The Ambassador said the relations should be based on mutual trust and confidence.
He welcomed the election date announced by the Election Commission and said they are expecting that the election will be held on time - February 12. "This (announcement of polls schedule) is a positive trend."
Regarding sending election observers, the Ambassador said they are in touch with the Election Commission and they are waiting for the official invitation from the Election Commission.
Ambassador Khozin said they are very much interested in creating such a positive, friendly and nonviolent and violation free atmosphere for the upcoming election. "This is very important for us."
He said they are interested in reducing the tension in Bangladesh as it is very important for the election. "For us and for me as Ambassador of my country, this is important to reduce tensions so that a congenial atmosphere can be created for the elections to be held."
Bangladesh-Russia relations
The Ambassador said Bangladesh remains their second largest trade partner in South Asia. For the past three years, despite the existing global hindrances, he said, the bilateral turnover steadily exceeded 2 billion US dollars.
He said Russia mainly exports machinery and agricultural products to Bangladesh and imports ready-made garments and textile goods.
"We hope that by the end of 2025 our turnover will also be significant – let's wait for the relevant statistics from our authorities at the beginning of the next year," said the Russian envoy.
He said Russia has been continuously contributing to the food security of Bangladesh being one of its key sources of food and agricultural products, including wheat and fertilizers. In 2025, the export volume of Russian wheat to Bangladesh is 2 million tons.
"This year we managed to achieve two times the increase in the supply of Russian fertilizers and mustard seeds to your country. We have also supplied almost 400 thousand tons of potash fertilizers to Bangladesh this year. Export of Russian veterinary vaccines has also increased by 25 percent," he said.
Ambassador Khozin said energy cooperation has always been the backbone of our economic relations.
"Our flagship development project is the construction of Bangladesh's first nuclear energy facility – Rooppur nuclear power plant. "Rosatom" State Corporation and its engineering division ASE are building the plant utilizing the most advanced engineering solutions, following the most stringent safety standards and environmental requirements," he said.
Once commissioned, he said, the Rooppur NPP will contribute to the stability of national energy security, providing an additional 2,400 MW to the grid.
Ambassador Khozin said nuclear power is low cost and environmentally friendly since NPPs produce nearly zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Moreover,he said, it will create an entire hi-tech industry for the benefit of Bangladesh's agriculture, health sector and engineering.
"We have a number of other projects no less important in terms of their impact on people's life and economic prosperity of this country. The Russian company Gazprom has been present in Bangladesh since 2012 and proved itself as a reliable partner in exploring gas reserves," he said.
Through its assistance, Ambassador Khozin said, new gas fields have been identified on Bhola island to further contribute to national self-reliance. Gazprom has accumulated vast expertise on the tricky geological structure of Bangladesh with its specific features and stands ready to continue its services for the benefit of the nation.
"Another field of our bilateral cooperation is gas production. Since 2012, Russian company "Gazprom International" has designed and built about 20 wells, including 7 on Bhola island," he said.
Ambassador Khozin said a significant amount of natural gas has been discovered there. Gazprom is interested in continuing its operations in Bangladesh by participating in drilling, seismic survey and gas transportation projects.
The company's proposals for gas evacuation and exploration of new fields are under consideration.
Ambassador Khozin said Russian exporters of LNG and crude oil are in the discussion to arrange the supplies of these products on a long-term basis that will meet the needs of Bangladesh facing shortage of energy resources required for the rapidly developing economy and daily communal activities.
Besides, he said, Russian companies engaged in the sphere of renewable energy are ready to share their developments with the Bangladeshi partners, as well as to invest in this sector and open joint ventures.
Ambassador Khozin said a skilled work force from Bangladesh is in demand in many countries, and Russia has joined this list.
"We are proud of the success achieved in bilateral economic relations so far, but at the same time we have to admit that the full potential of trade and investment cooperation is yet to be fully tapped," he said.
Ambassador Khozin said they have all the prerequisites for the successful development of our ties in a variety of spheres.
"Our political cooperation is smooth as it is not challenged by any contradictions. We have similar positions on the key issues of international agenda, such as countering terrorism, cybercrime, neocolonialism and glorification of Nazism, preventing arms race, including in outer space," he said.
Ambassador Khozin said their nations share traditional values such as patriotism and strong family links. "In other words, there is fertile soil for our bilateral relations to flourish."
Russian Ambassador Alexander Khozin has urged Bangladesh to ease internal and regional tensions ahead of the 12 February national election, while reaffirming Russia’s commitment to strengthening bilateral trade, energy and strategic cooperation.
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A leader of the youth wing of Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s party, Pakistan Muslim League, said that Pakistan’s military and missile capabilities would come into play in the event of any attack on Bangladesh.
Kamran Saeed Usmani made the remarks in a video statement circulated online, calling for a formal military alliance between Pakistan and Bangladesh.
“If India attacks Bangladesh’s autonomy, if anyone dares to look at Bangladesh with ill intent, then remember that the people of Pakistan, the Pakistani armed forces and our missiles are not far away," Usmani said.
Usmani alleged that Pakistan would not accept what he described as attempts to impose India’s “Akhand Bharat ideology" on Bangladesh.
In another video message, he said Pakistan does not accept Bangladesh being pushed into what he termed “India’s ideological dominance," adding that even an “evil eye" cast on Bangladesh’s autonomy would draw a response.
Outlining a hypothetical strategic scenario, Usmani spoke of coordinated pressure, with Pakistan acting from the west, Bangladesh from the east and China remaining focused on Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh.