One of the biggest achievements of the previous Awami League government, as boasted by Sheikh Hasina herself time and again, was "illuminating" every house in the country by taking the country's electricity production capacity to unimaginable heights.
While the capacity was 4,942 MW in January 2009, it is now claimed to be standing at around 28,000 MW.
And yet, since Hasina fled the country, there has been a new surge of load-shedding. Even though the daily demand has been hovering between 14,000 MW and 16,000 MW, well below the supposed capacity, load-shedding has sometimes been in the excess of 2,000 MW.
As a result of that, prolonged power outages lasting 10 to 12 hours a day are affecting rural areas. According to Power Development Board (PDB) data, the regions most impacted by these power cuts include Rajshahi, Rangpur, Cumilla, Mymensingh, and Sylhet. Even residents in metropolitan cities, including Dhaka, are experiencing frequent load-shedding throughout the day.
So, has Hasina taken all the surplus electricity with her to Delhi?
Not quite. The electricity crisis had already been simmering beneath the surface for some time because of Hasina's endless list of corruption, as well as her lack of foresight. Now, the load-shedding is, in effect, the direct shedding of the load of Hasina's wrongdoings onto the people.
The combination of several factors are contributing to this, including corruption, irregularities, a shortage of gas, coal, and oil due to unpaid arrears, as well as technical issues.
Corruption and irregularities
The Hasina government had embarked on an ambitious plan to construct numerous power plants, including rental and quick-rental plants, without ensuring a steady fuel supply or adequately assessing demand.
This resulted in a substantial increase in electricity generation capacity, which now far exceeds the actual demand. But the increase in capacity was accompanied by a dramatic rise in rental costs, which have surged 16-fold over the past decade.
The cost of renting these idle plants has imposed a financial burden on the government, leading to increased electricity prices for consumers and a rise in government liabilities.
According to reports, the total expenditure in the power sector during the three terms of the Awami League government is $28.3 billion. Considering the current exchange rate ($1 = Tk119.93 as of 12 September 2024), this amounts to Tk3,39,401 crore.
At the same time, just in the name of capacity charges, Tk1,00,000 crore has been looted. In other words, the power plants have taken this huge sum of money by merely showing their capacity without producing electricity. Most of these plants are owned by Awami League leaders or businessmen close to them.
Hasina was in charge of this ministry for 15 and a half years.
Allegations of corruption and inefficiency within the power sector are also directly affecting the power crisis.
The Matarbari power plant, for example, has been plagued by corruption-related issues, leading to a drop in its power output. Corruption and irregularities have allegedly caused production to fall to 850-900 MW, significantly below its full capacity of 1,200 MW.
Gas shortage
The country needs 3.80 billion cubic feet of gas daily, but currently only 3 billion cubic feet are available. Of this, LNG deliveries from two floating terminals in Maheshkhali and Cox's Bazar supply 1.10 billion cubic feet.
Moreover, at least 25 gas-fired power plants have been shut down since 27 May when Cyclone Remal hit the coastal areas. In particular, the prolonged shutdown of the Summit LNG terminal since the natural disaster has worsened the situation.
As a consequence, the daily gas supply has fallen to 2.60 billion cubic feet, with gas allocated to the power sector decreasing to 820 million cubic feet. Approximately a month and a half ago, gas-based power plants were capable of producing up to 6,500 MW. Currently, however, production has reduced to about 5,000 MW.
"The shutdown of the LNG terminal has reduced gas-based power plant production by 1,200 to 1,250 MW daily. This is the main reason for the current load shedding crisis," PDB Chairman Rezaul Karim told reporters on Monday.
Coal and oil shortage
Adani's power plant in Jharkhand is expected to provide 1,500 MW of electricity daily. However, the plant's outstanding electricity bill has surpassed approximately Tk9,500 crore, with nearly Tk5,900 crore of this amount being overdue.
While it is crucial to investigate why Hasina accumulated so much debt with Adani, it's equally important to examine why she agreed to such a high-priced contract in the first place. Was she pressured by India, or did she do it voluntarily for her own benefit?
Whatever the reason, Adani and Co. are now demanding payment, and the delay in settling the bill is affecting coal imports for the plant, causing its production to drop to 1,000 MW.
The supply from Tripura, India, has also dropped, with only 60-90 MW being delivered per hour instead of the expected 160 MW.
Though 1,000 MW was expected from India's public and private sectors via the Bheramara link, only 880 MW is currently being received.
The Matarbari power plant is also facing difficulties in purchasing coal due to import challenges.
Oil-based power plants in the private sector are also unable to meet peak demand as they also owe a lot of money. Furnace oil imports also faced a dip due to the dollar crunch, according to PDB officials.
Still, in response to the reduced gas supply, there has been a shift toward oil-based power generation, significantly increasing production costs. Currently, over 4,000 MW of power are being generated from furnace oil, according to PDB sources.
Technical issues
Petrobangla officials claimed that despite numerous requests from the government, the Summit Group has been unable to restart operations at its LNG terminal. As a result, the national grid is missing out on 500 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMCFD) from imported supplies.
Technical challenges are said to be one of the key reasons delaying the reopening of the Summit LNG terminal.
Another power plant facing a shutdown due to technical issues is the 525MW Barapukuria power plant. This has resulted in an additional shortfall of 280 to 285 MW, which would have otherwise supplied electricity to Dinajpur and two other districts.
The plant is anticipated to remain offline for an additional two weeks.
The electricity crisis had already been simmering beneath the surface for some time because of Hasina’s endless list of corruption, as well as her lack of foresight
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