Canada Canada picks the F-35 in fighter replacement competition

[Ripley]

Canada Reconsidering $13.2 Billion F-35 Purchase Amid Growing Tensions With The U.S.

The news comes just one day after Portugal announced it was abandoning its plans to purchase the F-35. "Canada is actively looking at potential

theaviationist.com

By David Cenciotti

Looks like they are second in line dropping or considering cancelling F35 after Portugal. Theirs is not gonna be an easy task, however. Canada already paid for the first 16 planes and their air fleet lacking essential asset of aircraft.

 

[Nilgiri]

Canada Reconsidering $13.2 Billion F-35 Purchase Amid Growing Tensions With The U.S.

The news comes just one day after Portugal announced it was abandoning its plans to purchase the F-35. "Canada is actively looking at potential

theaviationist.com

By David Cenciotti

Looks like they are second in line dropping or considering cancelling F35 after Portugal. Theirs is not gonna be an easy task, however. Canada already paid for the first 16 planes and their air fleet lacking essential asset of aircraft.

It would make no sense to acquire just 16.

This is just to apply counter pressure on Trump admin to drop the 51st state shenanigans.

I mean RCAF either gets 5th gen for its arctic needs till 2050 (with belligerent Russia and possibly China later given NORAD with US) and beyond or it has to revisit 4.5 gen again to plug the squadron gap looming.

If the latter, then we should have already gone for the superbug, rafale or gripen already....when the first pause on F-35 was done previously.

Clownshow levels of procurement that Trump has salted now.

 

[Saithan]

It would make no sense to acquire just 16.

This is just to apply counter pressure on Trump admin to drop the 51st state shenanigans.

I mean RCAF either gets 5th gen for its arctic needs till 2050 (with belligerent Russia and possibly China later given NORAD with US) and beyond or it has to revisit 4.5 gen again to plug the squadron gap looming.

If the latter, then we should have already gone for the superbug, rafale or gripen already....when the first pause on F-35 was done previously.

Clownshow levels of procurement that Trump has salted now.

But it would make sense to diversify their air force to avoid worst outcome. Unlike Denmark which is a small nation with 5.5 mio people. Canada is much bigger and being extremely dependent on US, as things are going isn’t an option.

I have a rough gut guess that some 40-50% of the F35 orders might get cancelled, but still acquire enough to have a squadron as minimum (small countries far away from frontlines).

EF T5 might get more tractio. While T4 production might have To hold the ford.

or

LM will have to establish independent maintenance structure in EU with production, which means Turkeys production capability is going to be an important asset.

 

[Nilgiri]

But it would make sense to diversify their air force to avoid worst outcome. Unlike Denmark which is a small nation with 5.5 mio people. Canada is much bigger and being extremely dependent on US, as things are going isn’t an option.

I have a rough gut guess that some 40-50% of the F35 orders might get cancelled, but still acquire enough to have a squadron as minimum (small countries far away from frontlines).

EF T5 might get more tractio. While T4 production might have To hold the ford.

or

LM will have to establish independent maintenance structure in EU with production, which means Turkeys production capability is going to be an important asset.

Yah but I mention NORAD for a reason. RCAF is tied at the hip to USAF literally. No other 2 airforces anywhere operate/exist like this. If relations go really sour, RCAF is literally stuck in worst spot of between a rock and hard place on the infra its reliant on and accustomed to. It is simply not an option for it to go that sour.

I mean lets say somehow F-35 is cancelled (incl or excl the 16), and RCAF goes for say Rafale to replace the legacy hornets in 1:1 way.... and then jumps to the euro 6th gen thing etc....and all the costs/delays this would involve again adding to the earlier dawdling back and forth.

Canada still forks out huge amount of spending for its destroyer program to the US (lockheed martin is heavily involved by way of radar, CMS etc in very long term substantial way that cant be undone)....among other things.

These are things Trump just doesn't understand, ignorantly or deliberately.

There are 100 different easier + optimal ways to communicate, pressure and even coerce Canada "underground" (US has done it a number of times and Canada makes some red lines known too in similar way when required)......be it greater military spending, border security, tariff agreements, drugs and crime you name it......

.....without coming off as a buffoon and damaging the relationship above ground for all to see and setting all kind of dumb precedence and tension/heat and unease, confusion and worry about what's next....especially given the significant bonds that have been invested into long term.

Trump has just ruined a bunch of things for no reason (and you see mixed messaging and uncomfortiness from the ambassador he is nominating regd political sovereignty side and also folks like Bessent regd the Trade side).

Canada only option is to wait things out a bit till something else distracts Trump much more, placate him slowly and work with his team somehow to communicate how to get things back to better order in relationship, and see if this F-35 "shot across bow" maybe lubricates this all starting (like I don't know whats being discussed behind closed doors to play-act a bit.... or this is Canada winging it to see how it goes).