Breaking News China-US War?

[contricusc]

Problem for China compared to D-Day is Taiwan knows all the landing sites and how to force concentrate on each (well past the staging area + conveyance interdiction tiers).

Exactly.

This makes an unbearable cost for the Chinese IMO. Blockade + capitulation is really only forseeable way, but that carries high risk with the US/Japan.

Totally agree with you. Trying to land on Taiwan would be a disaster for China, and their chances of success would be close to zero.

People don't read up sufficiently just how much the allies invested in ww2 in deception game to fool the germans where/when the landings would happen.....otherwise D-Day done lackadaisically as bigger Dieppe would have likely been a failure. Ike had a failure speech ready even with the real D-Day.

And the deception games no longer work in the age of of live data from satellites. Any attempt at a landing would be easily discovered by US satellites who will pass the information to the Taiwanese.

Trying to do a D-Day against a country equipped with modern weapons is destined to end in a huge failure. I doubt any Chinese landing ships would manage to even reach the shores of Taiwan if they would be under fire, and if some would escape, they would be easily crushed under artillery fire once on shore. The only survivors of such a landing attempt would be those who would manage to surrender.

 

[Jammer]

Tibet came under the rule of the Qing Dynasty of China in 1720 after the Qing expelled the Dzungar Khanate. It remained under Qing rule until 1912. The subsequent Republic of China claimed the inherited territories of the Qing Dynasty, including Tibet."

"The Chinese annexation of Tibet (also known as the "Chinese invasion of Tibet" by the Tibetan government in exile, or the "peaceful liberation of Tibet" by the Chinese government... in 1950..." Ibid.

Colleague, it seems that thanks to you I will become a sinologist As I have already written, I have never studied Southeast Asia. (I am also not familiar with Oceania, Latin America and Africa, except for the northern part of the continent).
But this does not mean that you can invent incredible fables about it. As you see, with Tibet, not everything is as "clean" as you write. Tibet, it turns out, belonged to China 150 years before the events of 1950! You wanted to mislead me!!! Oops, oops, oops!

Quoting sources from wikipedia is embarrassing and isn't the flex you think it is buddy.

Regarding the USA. You write that the USA wages countless aggressive wars "because the USA is a superpower, the only goal which is to protect their dominance, they are going to invade and overthrow countries. This is their game." After these words of yours, I don't even know what to say!!! Let it be known to you that international laws, written, by the way, by the USA, do not/should not make exceptions for the most powerful countries. In theory, international relations, figuratively speaking, are not the Indian jungle!!! If the most powerful countries do not comply with the laws because they are hegemons, then no one else is obliged to comply with them!!!

Its a wierd cope to think the world treats all countries as the same. Even in the proverbial jungle you talked about their is a power structure. Everyone respects powerfull ones. Russia only got sanctioned for invading a country when Iraq got operation desert storm for doing the same.The US never recieved any flack for doing any of its wrongdoing. India and china are buying russian crude and by your logic then every one should do the same but thats not how its going. If you dont comply to rules and if you are not the top dog economically and militarily you are screwed.

During the UN vote on the withdrawal of Armenian occupation troops from Karabakh, the USA, France and Russia (and for some reason India, which joined this trio), by the way, all three members of the UN Security Council, voted against. Although all of them, like all UN members, including India, officially recognize Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan!!! The great superpower - the democratic United States shamefully supported the occupier, only because Armenia is a Christian country, and we are Muslims.
We can make an exception for Russia, because Armenia is its military ally and it was with Russia's help that it occupied Karabakh. I am ready to make an exception even for India. But when these big countries publicly behave meanly, then the moment of truth comes!!!

You guys have made your bed with pakistan. You have chosen a side and your PM blabbers on our issues when we were quiet on your issues with armenia. Still amazes to see people thinking india should be nice to countries that side with our enemies. You guys support pakistan because its a muslim country then calling out others aint fair. We are just returning the favor.

The moment of truth came in 2020: the glorious army of Azerbaijan, having defeated the occupying forces of Armenia in 6 weeks, itself restored international law!!!
And you call this bragging...
By the way, before this war there was another famous Six Weeks' War - the war between France and Germany in 1940. A war that the French shamefully lost

Buddy we have fought some of the largest aerial, tank and naval warfare since world war 2. The war in 71 ended in 13 days.

 

[Sanchez]

Very unrealistic. Nothing like this happened in Kyiv when Russia invaded, and there is no reason to believe that the authorities in Taiwan would lose control without the Chinese army landing on their shores.

Not because Russia didn't try subversion of such kind. Remember Kherson. It worked pretty well there, local leaders turned coat.

 

[Gary]

Take it or leave it.

 

[contricusc]

Not because Russia didn't try subversion of such kind. Remember Kherson. It worked pretty well there, local leaders turned coat.

But I doubt China can find enough support in Taiwan to be able to pull this off. Taiwan has broken away from China a much longer time ago than Ukraine from the Soviet Union, and the sea between them cuts ties much faster. In Ukraine’s Eastern parts that are close to Russia, there was still a lot of Russian influence. I doubt there is still any Chinese influence in Taiwan, considering that all the surveys show that the Taiwanese are feeling less and less Chinese with every generation.

 

[Afif]

But I doubt China can find enough support in Taiwan to be able to pull this off. Taiwan has broken away from China a much longer time ago than Ukraine from the Soviet Union, and the sea between them cuts ties much faster. In Ukraine’s Eastern parts that are close to Russia, there was still a lot of Russian influence. I doubt there is still any Chinese influence in Taiwan, considering that all the surveys show that the Taiwanese are feeling less and less Chinese with every generation.

Not the same. Russians and Ukrainians are different entities. China and Taiwan has the same language and culture. Taiwan's official name is Republic of China. Only difference is the political system. Anyway, we can never know these things for sure, unless they actually happens.

 

[Iskander]

Quoting sources from wikipedia is embarrassing and isn't the flex you think it is buddy.

Its a wierd cope to think the world treats all countries as the same. Even in the proverbial jungle you talked about their is a power structure. Everyone respects powerfull ones. Russia only got sanctioned for invading a country when Iraq got operation desert storm for doing the same.The US never recieved any flack for doing any of its wrongdoing. India and china are buying russian crude and by your logic then every one should do the same but thats not how its going. If you dont comply to rules and if you are not the top dog economically and militarily you are screwed.

You guys have made your bed with pakistan. You have chosen a side and your PM blabbers on our issues when we were quiet on your issues with armenia. Still amazes to see people thinking india should be nice to countries that side with our enemies. You guys support pakistan because its a muslim country then calling out others aint fair. We are just returning the favor.

Buddy we have fought some of the largest aerial, tank and naval warfare since world war 2. The war in 71 ended in 13 days.

You claim that in two weeks of fighting, Indian troops captured 90,000 Pakistani soldiers? Unbelievable! What kind of blitzkrieg did you have there?! If this is true, then the general who planned this operation was simply a genius!
What is his last name? For some reason, I don’t know anything about him. I seem to know all the genius generals, from Hannibal to the present day. Strange. And what was the name of this operation?

But I read about the Pakistani air operation carried out at the very beginning of the war. If I remember correctly, it was called “Genghis Khan”. Russian sources consider it a failure. And do you know how the Russians do it? If Pakistan were a country friendly to Russia, the Russians would undoubtedly call this operation... brilliant That is, I do not trust Russian sources at all. And I have not read either Pakistani or English-language literature.
By the way, I apologize for being so frank, but I also consider Indian sources to be frivolous.
Do you know why? Because of Indian movies! They are frivolous, too much exaggeration.
Please recommend neutral sources writing about the capture of 90,000 Pakistanis by Indian troops and about the Pakistani air operation.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Afif]

You claim that in two weeks of fighting, Indian troops captured 90,000 Pakistani soldiers? Unbelievable! What kind of blitzkrieg did you have there?! If this is true, then the general who planned this operation was simply a genius!
What is his last name? For some reason, I don’t know anything about him. I seem to know all the genius generals, from Hannibal to the present day. Strange. And what was the name of this operation?

But I read about the Pakistani air operation carried out at the very beginning of the war. If I remember correctly, it was called “Genghis Khan”. Russian sources consider it a failure. And do you know how the Russians do it? If Pakistan were a country friendly to Russia, the Russians would undoubtedly call this operation... brilliant That is, I do not trust Russian sources at all. And I have not read either Pakistani or English-language literature.
By the way, I apologize for being so frank, but I also consider Indian sources to be frivolous.
Do you know why? Because of Indian movies! They are frivolous, too much exaggeration.
Please recommend neutral sources writing about the capture of 90,000 Pakistanis by Indian troops and about the Pakistani air operation.

Thanks in advance.

The numbers of total prisoners could be around 90k. There are disputes regarding this. Pak army regular personnel were likely around 30k. The war lasted for 9 months. In the end Pak army was significantly outnumbered. Vast majority of 70 millions people were against them. Countrywide clashes with BD freedom fighters over the span of 9 months degraded their logistics. Being stuck with a large hostile population hurt their morale. When Indian army formations directly intervene in support of freedom fighters, Pak defense collapsed within two weeks.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1818445645327302778

Sharing this in full because it’s an exceptionally well written press release by 1st Lt. Alyssa Letts, Pacific Air Forces

U.S. Air Force brings premier combat jet to Exercise Pitch Black 24

With the soft light of dawn illuminating the vast Northern Territory of Australia, the gentle rustle of eucalyptus leaves in the warm breeze, and the distant calls of kookaburras breaking the calm silence, another morning at Exercise Pitch Black 24 begins.

Suddenly, the tranquility shatters as the distant rumble of an F-22A Raptor quickly escalates into a deafening roar. The United States Air Force’s premier air-to-air combat jet is here to wake up the Outback.

“This is our first time bringing Raptors to Pitch Black,” said Lt. Col. Ryan Nickell, USAF Pitch Black Detachment commander. “Our objectives for this exercise are to train with our global Allies and partners to enhance joint, collective interoperability and lethality.”

Exercise Pitch Black, hosted biennially by the Royal Australian Air Force in the Northern Territory, is a multinational air combat exercise that has evolved into 20 nations working together. It highlights the importance of collaboration and preparedness in the increasingly strategic Indo-Pacific region.

The inclusion of the F-22A Raptor, the world’s most advanced fighter jet, underscores the strategic importance of this year’s largest and most complex Pitch Black iteration to date. “Bringing the F-22 Raptor to Exercise Pitch Black is a powerful statement of our dedication to our Allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Lt. Col. Ty Bridge, Pacific Air Forces Exercise Pitch Black lead planner. “The Raptor’s unmatched capabilities in air dominance make it an invaluable asset in any modern combat scenario.”

The F-22A’s advanced stealth technology, supercruise capabilities, and unparalleled maneuverability provide a significant edge in any combat situation. Its deployment in Exercise Pitch Black allows European and Pacific Forces alike to experience firsthand the operational advantages it brings, fostering interoperability and enhancing collective defense strategies.

“In today’s strategic environment, the ability to rapidly project power and integrate seamlessly with our Allies and partners is crucial,” said Nickell. “The F-22’s participation in Pitch Black not only demonstrates our commitment to regional security but also enhances our collective readiness to respond to any potential threats.”

Throughout the exercise, each participating nation will practice basic fighting maneuvers, offensive counter-air, defensive counter-air, and other high-end tactics. “Our strength lies in our ability to operate together, learn from each other, and stand united against any potential adversary,” said Bridge. “The F-22’s presence here is a testament to that enduring commitment.”

 

[Relic]

Take it or leave it.

I'll leave it. The video leaves out some key nuance. For example...

While the video correctly states that the U.S. and their Allies could embargo upwards of of 6.5 million barrels of Chinese oil imports per day, it also glosses over the fact that China's domestic offshore oil production accounts for approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. Those off shore oil platforms are exposed and would be juicy, strategic targets for long range American strike weapons. If USA could neutralize those as well, you're now talking about 8.0 million barrels per day required.

The next point that is glossed over is that buying 8.0 million barrels of oil per day from the likes of Russia and central Asia would be incredibly expensive. Do you think they're just going to do the Chinese a favour and sell them that oil at market value? Hell no. Let's say that China is required to pay 50% more per barrel (that's conservative) to bring 8.0 million barrels per day into their country. And make no mistake, that's exactly what would happen geopolitically (see artillery shell costs for Ukraine). In that case China could easily be on the hook for $100-$120 per barrel of oil. 8.0 million x $100 is $800 million usd per day, equivalent to $24 billion usd per month. That's a completely unsustainable $288 billion usd per year... Conservatively. In that math I'm assuming that USA has no luck using long range precision weapons to blow up land based Chinese pipelines, refining facilities, etc, that could deeply impact China's domestic energy production and / or import capabilities.

Lastly, the video also assumes that China's oil needs won't actually RISE during a time of war and that's completely ridiculous. Defense production would increase considerably, which would, in turn, require more oil. Fighter jets would constantly be active in large numbers, which would greatly ramp up the need for more jet fuel. China's vast navy is largely powered by conventional fuel and would be extremely active during a war. It would require significant fuel to keep operational.

The simplicity of the video leaves out too much nuance and doesn't focus enough on the strategic steps USA would take to deeply damage Chinese fuel imports, at the same time that their fuel requirements would skyrocket to fund and fight a war of that magnitude.

 

[Gary]

The next point that is glossed over is that buying 8.0 million barrels of oil per day from the likes of Russia and central Asia would be incredibly expensive. Do you think they're just going to do the Chinese a favour and sell them that oil at market value? Hell no.

actually very likely the answer is yes. because the alternative is seeing China (the top dog of the alliance) collapse, in which the West could pick them up next.

 

[Relic]

actually very likely the answer is yes. because the alternative is seeing China (the top dog of the alliance) collapse, in which the West could pick them up next.

Never works that way in reality. For the same reason that 155mm artillery shells have tripled and quadrupled in price for Ukraine and other nations supplying them, fuel prices for Russias would go through the roof. An even better example might be what India and China are currently doing to Russia. They are only willing to purchase Russian oil that previously was being sold to Europe, at a deep discount. India has been getting Russian oil for $60'ish usd per barrel from the Russian, at a time when they're paying $80+ usd per barrel from all other sources.

There is nearly a 0% chance that Russia and the Central Asian countries would simply do China a favour and keep oil prices level during their time of need. They'd certainly do their best to meet the demand, but only at a cost that benefits them.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820486801116844036

Construction of the Chinese Type-076 amphibious assault ship doesn't stop at night.
I think China is building 3 shifts of warships.

If this is not preparation for war, I don't know what to call it.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820486801116844036

Construction of the Chinese Type-076 amphibious assault ship doesn't stop at night.
I think China is building 3 shifts of warships.

If this is not preparation for war, I don't know what to call it.

@Anmdt @Kartal1 @Sanchez @TR_123456 @Gary @NEKO @Afif

 

[Gary]

@Anmdt @Kartal1 @Sanchez @TR_123456 @Gary @NEKO @Afif

Yes this region is heading for war. At some point mistakes will be made and the entire thing will spiral out of control.

The 076 should be of great concern to naval watchers in AsPac. It has enough firepower to keep practically all ASEAN navies at bay.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820911799887179795

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1826677081155273205

 

[Huelague]

New customs on Chinese goods by EU and vice versa can be a good opportunity for Türkiye

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1828779745393123633