TR Defence Exports & Updates

[Huelague]

The „Problem“ is not, that we aren’t able to export more. Inquires are there. We lack on capacities to export more and cover our own needs in the same way.

 

[Huelague]

Next year's target is 11 bn. IMHO, passing 10 bn is important we can now safely say that our defense industry sector is mostly self-sufficient.

Who set the targets and did it (source)?

 

[Zafer]

From the current 1.7% and 11th position I am guessing we can get to the 6th position with 5% in the next 5 years by the end of 2030 which requires 24% year over year increase for 5 years. This means nearly 3 times the current values. This can peak by 2035 when we hit 8% and 4th position. Table is SIPRI arms transfer list.

 

[Sanchez]

View attachment 78703

From the current 1.7% and 11th position I am guessing we can get to the 6th position with 5% in the next 5 years by the end of 2030 which requires 24% year over year increase for 5 years. This means nearly 3 times the current values. This can peak by 2035 when we hit 8% and 4th position. Table is SIPRI arms transfer list.

There's nothing to suggest that countries ahead of us won't increase their exports are similar levels.

Russia is probably expected to lose few more positions, but none of the European countries are losing market share; they all have very large conglomerates that are basically printing money and those countries will get the lion's share from EU rearmament.

Israel is not shunned enough to be booted from EU tenders and they are signing huge contracts left and right. Their industry is largely unaffected from the war.

Korea has matured to the point that it is now not only winning huge multi year contracts worth billions, but it is also managing to replace both US and Russia in some places, most importantly in the gulf. They are now also entering American market in subsystems and shipbuilding as well.

Top 10 is really hard to crack and there will be other contenders in the next decade, like a Japan that remembered it could actually sell weapons which started winning huge contracts as soon as they started offering their stuff like in Australia recently.

I'm hopeful, but I don't see us entering top 10 in this decade. We've probably hit a plateau at 11th and will continue increasing USDs earned but not entering the top 10.

 

[Zafer]

There's nothing to suggest that countries ahead of us won't increase their exports are similar levels.

Russia is probably expected to lose few more positions, but none of the European countries are losing market share; they all have very large conglomerates that are basically printing money and those countries will get the lion's share from EU rearmament.

Israel is not shunned enough to be booted from EU tenders and they are signing huge contracts left and right. Their industry is largely unaffected from the war.

Korea has matured to the point that it is now not only winning huge multi year contracts worth billions, but it is also managing to replace both US and Russia in some places, most importantly in the gulf. They are now also entering American market in subsystems and shipbuilding as well.

Top 10 is really hard to crack and there will be other contenders in the next decade, like a Japan that remembered it could actually sell weapons which started winning huge contracts as soon as they started offering their stuff like in Australia recently.

I'm hopeful, but I don't see us entering top 10 in this decade. We've probably hit a plateau at 11th and will continue increasing USDs earned but not entering the top 10.

There are climbers like the countries you mentioned but the US has 43% which is not sustainable.

We have come thus far with only drones, ammunition and smaller other additions. When we add jet fighters, tanks and air defences it is not far fetched to triple the current volumes. Kaan will be the sole new comer in the fifth gen market for 6-7 years at least so will Kızılelma be the sole contender for some years. When there is so much movement it is hard to guess the composition. But moving from 1.7% to 5% is not huge when the market is tripling and our offerings are not so selective.

 

[YeşilVatan]

I don't think major arms trades like tanks and jets are technical decisions. Those are mostly geopolitical / macro-economic in essence. That is why this scenario is not really plausible unless something seriously changes. And to be honest it really can, I just don't think it's going to change in the way it needs to for this to happen.

What needs to happen is Europeans wise up and buy our drones in droves (heh, pun) and then gulf arabs follow suit. Americans AND Chinese somehow need to lose market share while this happens. Coupled with numerous big sales to global south, and Pakistan & Azerbaijan making it rain for KAAN. And throughout all this there is no big instability issues that would stop the industry from growing.

That is the only way Turkey can be 6th. And let's be honest it's a long, long, long shot. Dream big but be realistic.