TR Economy & Updates

[Saithan]

I'm thinking out loud:

Let's not forget that the world is going to schit pretty fast, looking at the countries around we can see how they're treating their own population, so it's to be expected that these countries will experience braindrain of sorts, and those could potentially still end up in US.

EU is big, but not able to handle the waves also it's very diverse. Also the right wing has been moving towards protectionism, and even rejecting refugees and immigrants. e.g. Romania, UK.

The US being big and with low taxes may become a place of opportunity for those who have the drive, but the immigration policies will reject any who will not fit in.

Yes the US policy is going to harm the country and the people, but we're in times where being selective about who you give citizenship is important. Especially if you take a look at the issues in Türkiye.

the Nationalists who voted for Sinan (who joined AKP afterwards) were some 5 mio or so. But if RTE can get the same votes from Syrian who holds Turkish Passport and any other he gave the citizenship to. Then he's effectively rendered those votes inefficient.

People has a tendency to move towards stability in the past and in the present. Let's see what's going to happen.

 

[Oublious]

Shale gas investment in Turkiye, interesting looks like why Trump is friend off Erdogn mistery began to solve ..

oooo not to forget F35...

 

[No Name]

A new OECF report has come out about Turkey.

 

[Rooxbar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1914025892055244923

 

[Rooxbar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1915424314356092952

 

[Rooxbar]

The alternative red world is what would happen if Albayrak and Bilal Erdogan had let Ağbal continue implementing orthodox policy, nipping the rising inflation in the bud to then be able to lower rates; but no the construction lackeys had to get their cheap credit to add to their billions to funnel back to Bilal and co. Erodgan must be furious that his son and son-in-law's short-term greed and lack of any knowledge of economy whatsoever is going to cost him his throne potentially but he has nobody to blame but himself for being so gullible to believe in their nonsense and try giving it a religious polish with the Nas bs. Meanwhile the Turkish people had to see their purchasing power slashed 70-80% and experience world record inflation for 4 years.

 

[Saithan]

if I understand it correct. The government is probably stuck having to keep the constructions ongoing without being able to reduce them. As long as the money is circulated this shit can be kept going, but it'll deteriorate bit by bit.

 

[Rooxbar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1917658477092049114

It's gonna be a bloodbath in the coming months; I doubt the government can stand until 2027.

When there was unorthodox rate cuts while inflation was raging leading to massive currency devaluation, everyone understood that the devaluation and inflation was spurred on by the rate cuts and in the opposite case both would be controlled since trust had not eroded yet. Then orthodox policies came back, devaluation slowed and inflation didn't increase and started to reverse (albeit slowly as expectations are sticky).

This meant the relationship which should hold if there's institutional trust in the economy did hold; higher rates did lead to stopping of devaluation. (As I had predicted at the time, unlike some opposition economists who predicted large devaluation despite rate hikes).

This relation doesn't always hold when there's no trust, as in the case of Argentina until a year ago, or Zimbabwe, Hungary or Weimar republic. Sometimes people become suspicious of rate hikes thinking they can reverse anytime and prefer to stay in assets which are less lucrative but safer.

The break in this relation in our country has happened already after the Imamoglu case. The only reason it hasn't translated to massive devaluation is that the tank is still half full from the previous record rates throughout the past year. But the tank is emptying faster than it can be filled now, and even more hikes will be needed but they will not have the desired effect leading to the situation getting out of control. Hyperstagflation is inevitable.

 

[TheInsider]

Net FX reserves in billion $. 50+ billion $ evaporated in 1 month.

 

[TheInsider]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1918412221798920257

New measures from CB to support the Turkish lira. Basically, capital control policies.

 

[Spitfire9]

For anyone interested in a look at the Turkish economy from a British economist with no interest in Turkiye politically

 

[Huelague]

For anyone interested in a look at the Turkish economy from a British economist with no interest in Turkiye politically

We are in „trouble“ since the beginning of Türkiye Republic.

 

[Sanchez]

We are in „trouble“ since the beginning of Türkiye Republic.

We had the fortune of having a young population with a very nice population pyramid back then. We have managed to become the first country in the history to lose our population increase while not getting richer. This is a first and it's wholly untreaded.

 

[Zafer]

We are not in trouble we don't have a big debt

 

[Spitfire9]

I guess that the economist commenting sees as serious the reversal of improvement in the economy due to the reaction to the arrest of Erdogan's political rival (suggests political instability) and the reaction to Trump's wild tariffs (suggests trade instability).

To me, some useful data in the report.

 

[Huelague]

We are not in trouble we don't have a big debt

We are not in trouble because we don’t have a big debt?

 

[No Name]

This is concerning. The trade deficit has increased compared to last year.

 

[duveil]

We are not in trouble we don't have a big debt

Is that sarcasm？If not could you explain us what is the ratio of debt considered as “big” according to our budget and growing trade deficit ？

 

[Zafer]

Is that sarcasm？If not could you explain us what is the ratio of debt considered as “big” according to our budget and growing trade deficit ？

Government debt is low at 29,5%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_debt

 

[duveil]

Yes actually it looks good. But we are in trouble because of trade deficit, productivity growth,high inflation,income inequality and high interest. So if you are not belong to ％17 percent of the population you are fu.kd.