Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict

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Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: How the conflict could destabilise its neighbours​


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Militiamen from Amhara state, neighbouring Tigray, are fighting alongside the federal army

The fighting in Ethiopia's northern Tigray state may not only have drastic implications for the future of the country but could also seriously affect its neighbours.
Seeking to calm tensions a day after fighting started, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that "the stability of Ethiopia is important for the entire Horn of Africa region".
With a population of more than 110 million and one of the fastest growing economies on the continent, what happens in Ethiopia inevitably has a wider impact.
Despite this, the federal government has so far resisted calls for diplomatic intervention to end the hostilities with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which runs the state.

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Thousands of refugees have already crossed into neighbouring Sudan

Instead it has launched a charm offensive aiming to persuade the world that this is an internal matter. The government has described the conflict as a "law-enforcement operation" against a "clique" intent on destroying Ethiopia's constitutional order.
This fighting may have been the result of long-standing tensions between the TPLF and the federal authorities, but the thousands of refugees crossing into Sudan indicates how this has spread beyond Ethiopia's borders, whether the government likes it or not.

'The impact is huge'​

"The war is already regional," says Rashid Abdi, a Horn of Africa analyst.
"The Sudanese are involved and at some point it will involve other countries in the region, and also beyond, because it is a strategic region. The impact is huge."
He also believes that the conflict has drawn in Eritrea, which shares a long border with Tigray.
Eritrea has a history of poor relations with the TPLF, with its own scores to settle, and its President, Isaias Afwerki, is an ally of Ethiopian Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed.

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There is no doubt that attacking across Tigray's northern border would open up a new flank in the fighting, but so far the Eritrean authorities have denied involvement in the crisis.
There is also a danger that the federal government's focus on Tigray could weaken its involvement in backing the government in Somalia against al-Shabab militants.
Ethiopia has already withdrawn about 600 soldiers from Somalia's western border, though they were not tied to the African Union's mission in Somalia (Amisom), which Ethiopia also supports.
"If the situation deteriorates further and Mr Abiy is forced to pull out of Amisom, that would be catastrophic... it will create an opportunity for al-Shabab to regrow and regroup again," says regional analyst Mr Abdi.
The International Crisis Group agrees, saying that unless the conflict is urgently stopped, it "will be devastating not just for the country but for the entire Horn of Africa".

'End of Ethiopia as a nation-state'​

Regardless of the current involvement of Ethiopia's neighbours, some argue that the conflict could weaken the Ethiopian state, which could have damaging regional consequences in itself, with other groups in the multi-ethnic country emboldened to take on the central government.

Mr Abdi told the BBC that "what you will see essentially is the regions drifting away from the centre and the centre becoming weaker, unable to assert itself".

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Tigrayan forces have taken control of an army base

But the director of Nairobi-based think-tank the Horn Institute, Hassan Khannenje, understands that Prime Minister Abiy needed to bring Tigray back in line with the federal government to avoid a situation where others could follow its example.
"Mr Abiy sees this as setting a bad precedent for the other regions... a unilateral movement towards a potential secession will mean the balkanisation of Ethiopia, which could mean the end of Ethiopia as a nation-state," he told the BBC.
"His endgame is to bring the state back into the fold and hopefully move into elections next year as a united country. Which is going to very hard to do in practice, but it is not impossible."
In the meantime, the crisis could lead to thousands being forced from their homes either directly because of conflict, or because of the fear of conflict.

 

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Tigray rulers say Ethiopian troops facing 'hell'​


ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - The local rulers of Ethiopia’s rebellious Tigray region said on Wednesday they would never surrender to federal troops and would soon defeat their two-week offensive.

“Tigray is now a hell to its enemies,” the local government said in a lengthy statement on the state of a war rocking Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa region.

There was no immediate response from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

 

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Ethiopian MiG-23BM jets Conduct Airstrikes on Tigray’s Capital​


In what could lead Africa’s most populous countries to slide into a civil war, the Ethiopia Air Force MiG-23BM fighter jets began conducting airstrikes targeting Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Tigray’s capital, Mekele.

The attacks began on Wednesday evening. The jets took off from Bahir Dar in western Ethiopea. U.A.E. armed drones were also reportedly seen hovering over Ethiopean skies.

Violence escalated earlier this month after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed that the well-armed Tigray military attacked a national military base. He responded by sending in troops to bomb the TPLF-governed region.

Abiy won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for efforts to normalize relations with Eritrea, which shares a border with Tigray. Eritrea was once a part of Ethiopia but gained independence in 1993. From 1998 to 2000, the two countries fought a bitter war that left tens of thousands dead and their relationship had severed. They finally made peace in 2018.

Tigrayan regional president Debretsion Gebremichael alleged that Eritrea sent troops and tanks over the border into Tigray to support Abiy. Ethiopea is said to be using an Eritrean airport to attack Tigray.

On November 14, in what it claims to be a retaliatory attack, the Tigrayan forces fired missiles at targets in Eritrea.

Hundreds of refugees have fled to neighboring Sudan fearing being caught in the brutality.

If the conflict were to spill outside Ethiopia’s borders, it may potentially destabilise the Horn of Africa region.The stability of Ethiopia is important for the entire Horn of Africa region. I call for an immediate de-escalation of tensions and a peaceful resolution to the dispute,” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres had said in a Twitter post on November 6.

The U.S. and China have several strategic military bases in that region, the closest being Djibouti. Russia is planning to build a naval facility capable of mooring nuclear-powered surface vessels, in Sudan.
 

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Ethiopia religious map:
Greens Muslim
Light red Christian (Protestant)
Purple Christian (Orthodox)
Orange Local religions


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Ethiopia ethnic map:
 

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