TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Kartal1]

Mazloum Abdi has told U.S. reps that they should not count on him if they expand the war to confront Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq. If he's telling the truth (I doubt it), he must not be long for this world as the head of Syrian PKK, or may be the plan is to keep that organization safe and away from Iran's targeting, in case of clashes. Well they have bases inside Iran anyway, if Iran doesn't see them as a threat to itself, they are very happy to use it as a trump card against Turkey. It's very hard to develop a plan in juggling all of these possibilities.

My thesis that U.S. is preparing for a full-on war with Iran (despite most analysts thinking the opposite as they see the dem admin actually accommodating Iran based on superficial evidence), can be partially refuted if they stop Israel from making this a long-term thing and don't extend and elevate the level of engagement with Houthis, and militias in Syria (I say "partially", because if they don't do it now, they can always come back and do it later; so to fully refute it we have to see concrete steps by U.S. for rapprochement through JCPOA. As what I see is the exact opposite in U.S. abandoning JCPOA, I count this as an evidence for my hypothesis, based on the fact that a nuclear Iran will not be tolerated {since the risks of spillage with a nuclear Iran is real and unsustainable, unlike NK}, and on the other hand without JCPOA Iran will have no choice but to develop nuclear weapon). Since for U.S. and Israel to safely engage with Iran they have to clear its proxies first, this means moves against this goal will weaken my hypothesis, and naturally moves in keeping with this goal will strengthen it.

U.S. state department has opted to manifest a picture of what opinion on this matter (extending the war & carte blanche for Israel to continue) inside its halls are, as discordant and hesitant. But you never know if that's propaganda or real leaks. But sometimes the discord is real until an order to the contrary comes from some place else. I'd love to know where that some place is which can stifle any kind of discord so fast. Like how they have been avoiding the word "ceasefire" like the plague in a very wide geography. Would love to see how that's coordinated and where the actual decisions are made, or if it's only signalled from a central committee and everybody else recognizes the signals and conforms organically.

The US is ensuring there is proxy force that would keep the situation under control while the US went with limiting their footprint in the Middle East. Israel in Lebanon against Hezbollah, the Saudis in Yemen against the Houthis, Barzani in Iraq (not secure anymore), SDF in Syria.

The problem with SDF is that they know very well that suddenly the US could be forced to leave the region and they are flirting with everybody else in the same time ensuring that they don't fall on their asses. They are talking with Assad on SDF being included into the SAA as an autonomous force. YPG is already working with Assad and Russia on the west of Euphrates because there is no US presence there so they need a guarantor. YPG joining SAA would be would be the worst case scenario both for the US and the YPG because this means US would be out of proxies in the area so they will be forced to work with Turkiye and make compromises and the YPG would lose its protector so they will become an open target for the Turkish military and eventually annihilated in a couple of months.

The only safe exit for them would come if Assad face charges in international court, his replacement agrees on autonomous region for them, accepts US presence and limit relationship with Russia and Iran. Of course this is not possible so they are searching for an Iraqi connection in the name of Talabani that would not cooperate with Turkiye and would be the perfect replacement for Barzani's controversial politics that are shy of fully cooperating with PKK/YPG because Turkiye got him by the balls. Talabani family historically got good relationship with Iran and the Shiite groups. They also managed to play very good for different actors in the same time. The question here is the following: "Would Bafel Talabani ditch his relationship with Iran for power in KRG, joining of the KRG in Iraq and SDF controlled area in Syria under US protection?" I think yes. He is dumber than his ancestors.

The conclusion for Turkiye is that there are two important points. First is control over the province of Latakia, effectively cutting YPG forces from the sea and keeping a proxy in KRG that would contribute to the right balance of power so Talabani is far from the power there. The SDF will die without legitimation and legitimation can come in two ways. Joining the Assad government = annihilation by Turkiye or trough Talabani (what the US is pushing for) = Talabani will die before that even happens (Yasar Guler effect).

I am encouraging everybody to watch this video which is informative on the situation. The video also has EN subtitles:

 

[Kartal1]

Maldives pro-China President Muizzu's breaking all the existing practices and making his first foreign visit to Turkiye, not India, discussing security and defense issues and visiting TAI is discussed in India.

 

[uçuyorum]

Maldives pro-China President Muizzu's breaking all the existing practices and making his first foreign visit to Turkiye, not India, discussing security and defense issues and visiting TAI is discussed in India.

View attachment 63446

Maldives is tiny and has a tiny army and budget. We have some influence in Somalia and there is Pakistan but our naval presence in that region is what exactly? Their entire defense budget isn't enough to buy half a corvette so are they expecting us to form a base and contribute to their defense jointly with Pakistan?
Or train their military like Somalia?

 

[Kartal1]

Maldives is tiny and has a tiny army and budget. We have some influence in Somalia and there is Pakistan but our naval presence in that region is what exactly? Their entire defense budget isn't enough to buy half a corvette so are they expecting us to form a base and contribute to their defense jointly with Pakistan?
Or train their military like Somalia?

Really don't know. I know that we exported Otokar Cobra to the Maldives in the past. We also have an agreement for military cooperation. Maybe they want to buy some drones or Hurkus? I don't really know much about them.

 

[uçuyorum]

Really don't know. I know that we exported Otokar Cobra to the Maldives in the past. We also have an agreement for military cooperation. Maybe they want to buy some drones or Hurkus? I don't really know much about them.

That’s still expensive. Maybe just an Anka?

 

[Kartal1]

That’s still expensive. Maybe just an Anka?

Maybe.

 

[Sanchez]

Really don't know. I know that we exported Otokar Cobra to the Maldives in the past. We also have an agreement for military cooperation. Maybe they want to buy some drones or Hurkus? I don't really know much about them.

They have 3(three) Otokar Cobras and 2 Dhruv helicopters donated by India. Their biggest ship is a <50 meter Indian donation in their coast guard. 90% of their income comes from tourism. They have bigger issues than India, like the sea levels rising in the next 50 years.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729847363173240891

Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, is humiliating Erdogan on social media.

 

[Ryder]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729847363173240891

Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, is humiliating Erdogan on social media.

Pretty hilarious of these tyreheads when they themselves did fck all when Gaza was getting pummelled.

 

[Bozan]

Pretty hilarious of these tyreheads when they themselves did fck all when Gaza was getting pummelled.

They took out some radar or radio towers or whatever but still more than Erdogan

 

[Ryder]

They took out some radar or radio towers or whatever but still more than Erdogan

Minor skirmishes does not cut it by the way while Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters into Syria and Iraq.

They are cowardly to take on Israel.

They also pointed their guns at Turkiye and got smashed in 2020.

Palestinians should realise the reality of Iran and Hezbollah. Hamas once helped the FSA until Iran threatened to cut support and Hamas folded like cowards to Irans demands.

 

[Sanchez]

Erdoğan will go to Greece next week.

"7 ministers and advisors will come from Ankara

20 agreements to be signed, including on migration

The delegation will go to Western Thrace the next day and pray Friday prayers with the minority"

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1731393510337544685

 

[Kartal1]

Erdoğan will go to Greece next week.

"7 ministers and advisors will come from Ankara

20 agreements to be signed, including on migration

The delegation will go to Western Thrace the next day and pray Friday prayers with the minority"

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1731393510337544685

Sounds promising. Let's see...

 

[Sanchez]

Sounds promising. Let's see...

I seriously doubt something we'll like will come out of this, let's see.

 

[Asena_great]

Minor skirmishes does not cut it by the way while Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters into Syria and Iraq.

They are cowardly to take on Israel.

They also pointed their guns at Turkiye and got smashed in 2020.

Palestinians should realise the reality of Iran and Hezbollah. Hamas once helped the FSA until Iran threatened to cut support and Hamas folded like cowards to Irans demands.

lol maybe pelikan and others who throw stone at police should realized their influence as well

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1731695056837337470

Erdogan is clashing with the west to boost his domestic ratings. His administration has constantly pushed a narrative that the west is the main enemy of TR and pushed every conspiracy possible.

Foreign policy sacrificed for domestic boost.

 

[Sanchez]

Erdoğan: "Greece is not Turkey's adversary, but a valuable member of the alliance it is in."

"We share the same geography, the same sea. We breathe the same air. We are intertwined by our history. As two countries, we are aware that there are many issues between us that we have yet to resolve. But it is up to us whether or not we allow these problems to cause tension and lead to disagreements between our governments and our peoples. It is in this sense that I spoke of a 'new page' in our relations and the 'win-win' principle. The 'win-win' approach is already at the heart of Turkey's approach to international relations and diplomacy."

Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Yunanistan Türkiye'nin hasmı değil

Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, "Yunanistan Türkiye'nin hasmı değil, içinde bulunduğu ittifakın kıymetli bir üyesi" dedi.

www.trthaber.com

Never let them know your next move.

 

[Afif]

Erdoğan: "Greece is not Turkey's adversary, but a valuable member of the alliance it is in."

"We share the same geography, the same sea. We breathe the same air. We are intertwined by our history. As two countries, we are aware that there are many issues between us that we have yet to resolve. But it is up to us whether or not we allow these problems to cause tension and lead to disagreements between our governments and our peoples. It is in this sense that I spoke of a 'new page' in our relations and the 'win-win' principle. The 'win-win' approach is already at the heart of Turkey's approach to international relations and diplomacy."

Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Yunanistan Türkiye'nin hasmı değil

Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, "Yunanistan Türkiye'nin hasmı değil, içinde bulunduğu ittifakın kıymetli bir üyesi" dedi.

www.trthaber.com

Never let them know your next move.

"But your tiny uneducated brain could not even comprehend the depth of strategic masterclass and geopolitical manoeuvre of 'our' Great leader Erdogan."
Or so I am told By Bangladeshi Islamist every time Erdogan switches stance.

 

[Sanchez]

"But your tiny uneducated brain could not even comprehend the depth of strategic masterclass and geopolitical manoeuvre of 'our' Great leader Erdogan."
Or so I am told By Bangladeshi Islamist every time Erdogan switches stance.

TR and GR do have near irreconcilable differences in multitude of issues and presumably an outside hand is forcing us to work out some of them, or delay them for another generation. Greek nationalists are unhappy with the claims of what their gov is going to do this week, on our side however the running rhetoric is "we've taught them their place." Although Greeks said many times that they are very happy that Turkey stopped "overflights" for the last 6 or so months.

I'll refrain from commenting until we see what the deals are about.

 

[dBSPL]

"But your tiny uneducated brain could not even comprehend the depth of strategic masterclass and geopolitical manoeuvre of 'our' Great leader Erdogan."
Or so I am told By Bangladeshi Islamist every time Erdogan switches stance.

Please tell them that Erdogan is a master demagogue, not an Islamist. He even received two updates over the Islamist version (Nationalism additional package, and then, 'should we go back to this constitutional reform attempt?' beta ver), our Bangladeshi brothers still use the old version.