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Mazloum Abdi has told U.S. reps that they should not count on him if they expand the war to confront Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq. If he's telling the truth (I doubt it), he must not be long for this world as the head of Syrian PKK, or may be the plan is to keep that organization safe and away from Iran's targeting, in case of clashes. Well they have bases inside Iran anyway, if Iran doesn't see them as a threat to itself, they are very happy to use it as a trump card against Turkey. It's very hard to develop a plan in juggling all of these possibilities.
My thesis that U.S. is preparing for a full-on war with Iran (despite most analysts thinking the opposite as they see the dem admin actually accommodating Iran based on superficial evidence), can be partially refuted if they stop Israel from making this a long-term thing and don't extend and elevate the level of engagement with Houthis, and militias in Syria (I say "partially", because if they don't do it now, they can always come back and do it later; so to fully refute it we have to see concrete steps by U.S. for rapprochement through JCPOA. As what I see is the exact opposite in U.S. abandoning JCPOA, I count this as an evidence for my hypothesis, based on the fact that a nuclear Iran will not be tolerated {since the risks of spillage with a nuclear Iran is real and unsustainable, unlike NK}, and on the other hand without JCPOA Iran will have no choice but to develop nuclear weapon). Since for U.S. and Israel to safely engage with Iran they have to clear its proxies first, this means moves against this goal will weaken my hypothesis, and naturally moves in keeping with this goal will strengthen it.
U.S. state department has opted to manifest a picture of what opinion on this matter (extending the war & carte blanche for Israel to continue) inside its halls are, as discordant and hesitant. But you never know if that's propaganda or real leaks. But sometimes the discord is real until an order to the contrary comes from some place else. I'd love to know where that some place is which can stifle any kind of discord so fast. Like how they have been avoiding the word "ceasefire" like the plague in a very wide geography. Would love to see how that's coordinated and where the actual decisions are made, or if it's only signalled from a central committee and everybody else recognizes the signals and conforms organically.
My thesis that U.S. is preparing for a full-on war with Iran (despite most analysts thinking the opposite as they see the dem admin actually accommodating Iran based on superficial evidence), can be partially refuted if they stop Israel from making this a long-term thing and don't extend and elevate the level of engagement with Houthis, and militias in Syria (I say "partially", because if they don't do it now, they can always come back and do it later; so to fully refute it we have to see concrete steps by U.S. for rapprochement through JCPOA. As what I see is the exact opposite in U.S. abandoning JCPOA, I count this as an evidence for my hypothesis, based on the fact that a nuclear Iran will not be tolerated {since the risks of spillage with a nuclear Iran is real and unsustainable, unlike NK}, and on the other hand without JCPOA Iran will have no choice but to develop nuclear weapon). Since for U.S. and Israel to safely engage with Iran they have to clear its proxies first, this means moves against this goal will weaken my hypothesis, and naturally moves in keeping with this goal will strengthen it.
U.S. state department has opted to manifest a picture of what opinion on this matter (extending the war & carte blanche for Israel to continue) inside its halls are, as discordant and hesitant. But you never know if that's propaganda or real leaks. But sometimes the discord is real until an order to the contrary comes from some place else. I'd love to know where that some place is which can stifle any kind of discord so fast. Like how they have been avoiding the word "ceasefire" like the plague in a very wide geography. Would love to see how that's coordinated and where the actual decisions are made, or if it's only signalled from a central committee and everybody else recognizes the signals and conforms organically.
but still more than Erdogan
