TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[fushkee]

Well good luck. No country with an open border conflict can join NATO and than of course good luck in convincing us to let you join. But I see this is an opportunity to solve the Cyprus problem. We would finally have some leverage of our own.

Do you really believe that it is a dream or unrealistic approach for them to be a NATO member especially while this akp-based government in place?
I really laugh at that

 

[Asena_great]

If they were serious about defeating/attacking Russia it wouldn't have taken 3 years to send Ukraine a dozen old and shitty F16's. It took 3 years to "ok" basic nato munitions to be used by Ukrainians against Russian targets on Russian soil.

The reality is they want to keep the meat grinder going on in Ukraine for many many years to come. I suspect everything they say is meant to deceive both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine in the sense that the americans are serious in defeating Russia, while by the same token all the other messages outside are meant to make the Russians think the Americans are not really interested in supporting Ukraine. That way you get both sides killing each other for many years to come thinking a solution isn't far away.

They played a similar game on Turkiye over Syria, lots of promises, then lots of threats, then they turned Turkiye into the bad guy in the war. Meanwhile the americans and russians were working together against Turkiye, so much so that when Turkiye moved on the PKK the americans handed control of the regions they had to Russia just to stop a "NATO ally" from securing them. While increasing the tension between Turkiye and Russia. Infact their actions in sryia only contributed to tensions and the potential for war between Turkiye and Russia. And remember Turks NATO will not side with you in a war with Russia. Arguably the only nation that would have pre their war, was Ukraine. As far as the ummah is concerned, most of them if not all them would support Russia.

Ideally the two global shit stirrers america and russia can have at it while the rest of the world just sits out of it.

ukranian leadership is an example of dreamer people without vision. the US goal is not to defeat russia but to weaken it via Ukraine they already got what they wanted sweden and finland are in nato and russia is landlocked in European side. with the fraction of US millitary budget US destroyed thousands of russian equipment saw their real capability in technology military and intelligence and tested their own weapons and capability on live russian targets they will never supply ukraine enough to defeat russia and if russia is winning then they will give more weapons to ukraine to balance it. ukranian leadership should have better vision then this for their chldren now they are nothing but cannon fodder for the west. anyone trusted US always got betrayed by them in turkey that would be turgut özel and erdoğan

 

[Kartal1]

Great extended answer.

I'm currently in the process of reading up on these topics academically, currently prospecting a reading list on realist IR, and natural resource topics. Really wish I took some PoliSci electives in undergrad rather than economics electives which were a pile of bs (on industrial policy though I'd recommend new structural economics by Justin Yifu Lin). I don't like to comment too much without having enough knowledge but...

I agree that Turkey is going to need friends in its near abroad in order to compete with Iran and their advantages in terms of proxies, energy resources and geographic positioning. The departure of the US might actually be golden opportunity in that regard, if the Gulf countries are looking for a new security guarantor. Hopefully Turkey will be able to recover from the damage in relations from the early Erdogan administration when the FETO-ists were still around. I think one positive development in this regard is that while these countries were trying to play Machiavellian and line up with Israel against Iran, Israel hasn't looked too hot this past year in its ability to respond to Iran. So that devils alliance might not play out in the medium-long term.

I said earlier that the Arab countries are not ready to be reliable partners, and I think most people here would agree frankly. It's tough, all your good (and relatively more advanced) friends are on the other side of Iran unfortunately or even further.

I can't comment too much on the specifics your overall foreign policy prescription, I'm no expert, but obviously I generally agree with the jist of it.

For example though, I remember reading a paper some time ago that Turkey was heavily dependent on the import of intermediate goods. This was years ago, but according to chatgpt today Turkey stands around 30% whereas your typical industrial power is closer to %20. Obviously this is a more simplistic metric, but the idea is that when it comes time to exert hard-power the country is going to need to shift to an autarkic/semi-autarkic mode.

Honestly man I feel obligated to say something since you came through with such effort, but my grasp of these topics is a WIP.

Don't take my analysis as a done fact.

I am also not an expert and these are just my assumptions and thoughts.

 

[Tabmachine]

Don't take my analysis as a done fact.

I am also not an expert and these are just my assumptions and thoughts.

Honestly haven't been super sharp lately, came down with some covid-like stuff this last few weeks, so wasn't really well-equipped to break down your write-up. I'll revisit it sometime as food for thought.

Something you guys here may be interested in:

The MIT recently started up a National Intelligence Academy, and they have website here where they publish articles: https://mia.edu.tr/

"A European Union Stuck Between Ambition and Reality: THE DRAGHI REPORT": https://mia.edu.tr/uploads/f/10102024_1.pdf

 

[Lool]

The greatest joke i ever read today
Now, the USA is permitting F35 slaes to Turkey? Why? Didnt the Americans bitch and whine for years about how the Russian S400s are a threat to the F35s cyber security? Didnt they distort the relations with turkey for years over such a stupid excuse? Now, they are offering the F35s again? As far as I know, the Turks didnt throw the S400 systems away and yet they are offering the F35 again

Ppl now need to believe that the reason the West increasing hostility to Turkey isnt because of Erdogan or whatever they say on their media but the Turkish defence industry. Having a top of the line defence industry that isnt controlled by the few globalist elites in the West is a pure threat to their authority and their respective countries. For years, they have been using military sales as a way to threaten nations but when they see that their competitors are developing better products, they cry about how you arent buying their products

Just wait, sooner or later Germany will beg Turkey to purchase German-made tanks and engines after the BATU power group is completed

It was never about Erdogan or Turkish foreign policy...... it was, is, and will always about subordination. Fqing western countries, I swear

Thankyou for the beautiful news, Mr. YASAR Guler

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1861489020611825845

Translation:
"We have 6 planes there regarding the F-35s. Now, when the Americans saw that we will make the Kaan plane now, that we can make it, and that it is flying, their thoughts have changed a little bit. They are now stating that they can provide the F-35. There has been no such development on this issue yet. Now we insist that our production share be given back to us and we have submitted our request to purchase the F-35." — Yaşar Güler | Minister of National Defense

 

[Shtr]

When you have a fictional problem, solution is fictional too.

 

[Kartal1]

Governor of Nineveh (Mosul) Iraq, Abdulkadir Dakhil and his high-level Iraqi delegation visited Ankara Governor Vasip Şahin

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1861461050954027198

 

[YeşilVatan]

Framing the Gaza issue as a religious-civilizational war was a massive mistake. Turkish policy should have been to oppose Israel forefully but non-militarily and denounce Hamas on humanitarian grounds. I just watched a video from hellenic american leadership something or whatever those people are called, Hamas support has been brought up every other minute. They were ecstatic that they could influence pro-Israeli members of the congress or the senate or white house. That veled-i zina Rubin was also in it. We are in for a ride.

The potential saving grace here is Trump filled the positions to the brim with loyalists and by some accounts, made it very clear that they are there to enact Trump's policies, not their own. He also has a very good personal relationship with RTE. At this point, I'm %25 hopeful that he would not destroy US-Turkish relationship but who knows.

 

[Rooxbar]

The Chinese channel acting as a mouthpiece for China's regional allies (Iran-Hezbollah) once again (just like other Eurasianists). They will always side with the interest of those guys, but some times it overlaps with our interests and sounds good so it dupes people.

 

[Dennixtoue]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865670150311067726

Spoiler: disturbing footage

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1866258736823603339

 

[IC3M@N FX]

Merz after Assad's Fall: Work More Closely with Turkey

What comes next after the overthrow in Syria? On the sidelines of his trip to Ukraine, which is under attack by Russia, the CDU leader makes a suggestion for Europe's response.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz calls for closer cooperation between Europe and Turkey following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to bring peace to the Middle East region. "Russia is weakened because Russia was the protector of Syria and the regime there. And Turkey is strengthened. It will now play an even bigger role in the entire region of the Middle East," said the Union's chancellor candidate during his visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in an interview with RTL Aktuell.

"Therefore, a good piece of advice for us — and not just for us Germans but for all Europeans — is that we must now work much more closely with Turkey to bring political stability to this region," Merz stated. "This is now a task for German and European politics." At the same time, the leader of the Union parliamentary group warned against hasty responses given the rapidly changing situation in Syria: "We now need to wait and see what actually happens in Syria, whether the civil war is truly over."

Syrien: Merz nach Assad-Sturz: Stärker mit Türkei zusammenarbeiten

Wie geht es nach dem Umsturz in Syrien weiter? Am Rand seiner Reise in die von Russland angegriffene Ukraine macht der CDU-Vorsitzende einen Vorschlag zur europäischen Reaktion.

www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de

I don't give a shit, for years the Turks in Europe and especially in Germany were supposedly the ones to blame for Germany's messed up domestic and foreign policy!
To divert attention they came up with Erdogan here Turkey there Erdogan Erdogan Erdogan in the German Media!
The last European Football Championship showed what makes the Germans tick, how they treat Turkey, hopefully we will continue to fuck the German ass.
They are foaming at the mouth with rage that they are absolutely powerless, every time the German media reports on what weapons systems Turkey is developing and manufacturing, they really think it's being done with EU and German money LOL.
If Turkey has any degree of political self-respect, I would look at them and then turn around and leave without comment.

And then I wouldn't even look at them with my left ass cheek. Let them go to their French friends who don't even have a government.

 

[YeşilVatan]

Merz after Assad's Fall: Work More Closely with Turkey

What comes next after the overthrow in Syria? On the sidelines of his trip to Ukraine, which is under attack by Russia, the CDU leader makes a suggestion for Europe's response.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz calls for closer cooperation between Europe and Turkey following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to bring peace to the Middle East region. "Russia is weakened because Russia was the protector of Syria and the regime there. And Turkey is strengthened. It will now play an even bigger role in the entire region of the Middle East," said the Union's chancellor candidate during his visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in an interview with RTL Aktuell.

"Therefore, a good piece of advice for us — and not just for us Germans but for all Europeans — is that we must now work much more closely with Turkey to bring political stability to this region," Merz stated. "This is now a task for German and European politics." At the same time, the leader of the Union parliamentary group warned against hasty responses given the rapidly changing situation in Syria: "We now need to wait and see what actually happens in Syria, whether the civil war is truly over."

Syrien: Merz nach Assad-Sturz: Stärker mit Türkei zusammenarbeiten

Wie geht es nach dem Umsturz in Syrien weiter? Am Rand seiner Reise in die von Russland angegriffene Ukraine macht der CDU-Vorsitzende einen Vorschlag zur europäischen Reaktion.

www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de

The level of delusional hubris these cretins have is simply astounding.

I guess they won't try to block Eurofighters now huh

 

[Sanchez]

Very interesting. Mahmoud of Somalia and Abiy of Ethiopia are in Ankara and separately met with Erdoğan. Talks from few months ago were thought to be stalled but finally some movement here. Hoping for a deal two can live with.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1866870564171944310

 

[Sanchez]

Very interesting. Mahmoud of Somalia and Abiy of Ethiopia are in Ankara and separately met with Erdoğan. Talks from few months ago were thought to be stalled but finally some movement here. Hoping for a deal two can live with.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1866870564171944310

They are giving a joint presser, very interesting. Abiy calls it "win-win". No details yet. Erdoğan mentions sea access for Ethiopia. But this is not final as he mentioned future talks to detail it. I'm thinking this joint declaration for now is just a signature of goodwill and intent, but nothing final.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1866945256287060076

 

[Scott Summers]

Somalia was already in the Turkish hemisphere, but putting Ethiopa in it (with its Great Rennesaince Dam and vast population of 150+ million) is a very great achievement.

Defense, construction, trade, minerals, oil, tourism etc.

This historic deal will also put pressure on Somaliland and Eritrea to come to the table again.

Erdogan - bigger chestplayer than Kasparov.

 

[Sanchez]

I'm thinking this joint declaration for now is just a signature of goodwill and intent, but nothing final

"They agreed, within a spirit of friendship and mutual respect, to forgo and leave behind differences and contentious issues and forge ahead in a cooperative manner to pursue shared prosperity.

Somalia recognizes the sacrifices of Ethiopian soldiers within the African Union Missions.

They acknowledged the potentially diverse benefits that could be derived from Ethiopia’s assured access to and from the sea, whilst respecting the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

They further agreed to closely work together to finalize mutually advantageous commercial arrangements through bilateral agreements, including contract, lease, and similar modalities, which will allow the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia to enjoy reliable, secure and sustainable access to and from the sea, under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

They decided to start technical negotiations in good faith for these purposes no later than end of February 2025, with the facilitation of Türkiye, to be concluded and signed in four months."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1866954246333272498

If this can be handled in a timely manner and with both countries abiding by what they agree with, where Ethiopia gets to use Somali ports and foregoes any encroachment on Somali sovereignty over all of Somalia, including Somaliland breakaway state, I believe it could be a solution to start a good, fruitful and most importantly symbiotic relationship.

 

[Sanchez]

Well, that was sooner than expected. Trump is on his way to wreak havoc on Iran and he will ask us to take a side this time with no ifs and buts I fear.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1867566521750368757

 

[YeşilVatan]

Well, that was sooner than expected. Trump is on his way to wreak havoc on Iran and he will ask us to take a side this time with no ifs and buts I fear.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1867566521750368757

Keep in mind Haley lost the primary to Trump in a spectacular fashion, and was made fun of by the entire Trump base. She's very unpopular. America's version of Davutoğlu. The other neocon guy who was CIA head were discarded in staffing process.

I believe Trump will make deals according to his own logic, and will expect ironclad loyalty in implementation.

I was fearing another lameduck term where his orders were undermined like the last time, but it's seems more and more impossible each passing day.

If Trump and Turkish visions align on Syria, then we can breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[hugh]

Keep in mind Haley lost the primary to Trump in a spectacular fashion, and was made fun of by the entire Trump base. She's very unpopular. America's version of Davutoğlu. The other neocon guy who was CIA head were discarded in staffing process.

I believe Trump will make deals according to his own logic, and will expect ironclad loyalty in implementation.

I was fearing another lameduck term where his orders were undermined like the last time, but it's seems more and more impossible each passing day.

If Trump and Turkish visions align on Syria, then we can breathe a sigh of relief.

Trump will either be somewhat good for us or extremely bad(like for every other country). But I'm a bit optimistic as his utter focus will be on upending every US institution to "cut the fat" as they put it. The ME is too costly to maintain for him.

 

[Ryder]

Guys I want to ask about Serbia.

As Russia is weakening. Serbia now finds itself deep shit as they know their traditional protector wont able to protect them as much.

I know Serbia and China are close but China is too far for Serbia to have any kind of military alliance.

Does Turkiye have any chance to fill the void for Serbia? What should Turkiye power plays be in the Balkans?

Serbia will no doubt try to find as much friends as possible while most of its neighbours join the EU and leaving them to be alone.