@Kartal1 @Sanchez There is no doubt United States increasingly wants Europe to carry most of its own security burden within existing NATO set-up, however, any push for serious independent European security body is not something United States may want in the long run. Specially if it means effectively making NATO useless. It is still the apparatus through which US partly exercise its power in MENA in case of large events. As US hard power shift more and more toward Indo-Pacific, it will need NATO more to directly exercise authority in MENA.
That may allow a strategic realignment between USA and Türkiye, in which Türkiye will hold NATO together and keep it relevant using its increasing military and diplomatic might. With a new Eastern axis as
@Sanchez proposed.
Because in the end, a United independent European security body is more dangerous for Türkiye than a declined Russia. IMO, only by keeping US and existing NATO apparatus relevant here, Türkiye can realistically counter that.
The problem here is that Turkiye is more of a wildcard for NATO than a country which can lead NATO's efforts. An increased cooperation in the Black Sea and the Balkans (Kosovo, Bosnia) is to be expected, but what about Caucasus, Africa and the Middle East?
Turkiye and the other members in NATO have totally different goals there and they don't like the fact that Turkiye starts to exercise more pro-active policies towards these regions by directly going into a clash with the interests of countries like France which is one of the few EU countries that actually is both militarily capable, active and also has this pro-active approach towards their objectives despite the recent fails which are partly due to Turkiye's role in their areas of influence.
Turkiye entered a revisionist mode which will guarantee the State's right to have a stronger card in the decision making mechanisms in the West and guarantee that Turkiye's national interests and national security concerns are actually considered before making a move. We saw what happened in Libya and how Turkiye and France actively supported different sides of the conflict. We saw what happened with the whole Operation Irini fiasco and the event where a Turkish warship actually illuminated a French warship with its radar. We also saw the German role in the operations there. We also know that Turkiye had a major role in what happened in other African countries where France had interests. Karabakh was another major event with smaller secondary events including the role of the Azerbaijani intelligence in popular unrest or separatism activities in places like New Caledonia, Corsica, Martinique, French Guiana and French Polynesia. When it comes to the Middle East as the events are more recent we see what is Turkiye's position on the Israel-Palestine issue, the fact that Turkiye doesn't participate in the Operation Prosperity Guardian where France and even Greece actually participate (France prefers to put its ships under national command) is evident. There is not even a passive support for the defensive part of the operation despite Turkish business also being targeted. And lastly Syria is a hot topic even in this hour and minute. France is supporting Turkiye's grave enemy by directly involving its forces on the ground on the pre-text that they are fighting DEASH.
Many of the issues listed above were lying in a deep status quo, but by the looks not anymore.
The US is a major factor in establishing the link between the other NATO countries and Turkiye and due to the US's increased balancing role in all these events we managed to turn back from great dangers. As I listen to recent US rhetoric especially when it comes to areas of contact with Russia and the Middle East (Turkiye's areas of interest) we see that they basically say "Guys, you are already big enough to look after yourselves, papa will support you every time you need it , but you should already take more responsibility regarding your life and the decisions you take".
If we accept that NATO is a family then we should know that the US is like a dad in a patriarchal family, Europe is an entity consisted of good aunts, bad aunts, spoiled children and a big sister in her 30s looking like a grandma, both psychically and physically in a bad shape. Turkiye is like a step-child in this family.
Whatever the US did was to prepare its children for the challenges in life, but also intervene in the interest of the spoiled children and when dad says "You are big enough to run the show" both sides gain a level of independence including the responsibility it comes with, but the difference is that the spoiled children will always come first. When dad abdicates from part of his responsibilities, there is a power vacuum to be filled and this is where the sons start fighting. Of course the family always comes together on Christmas or in the face of important events including the Muslim step child, but everybody in the family knows that actually no one cares about the Muslim step child out of a couple irrelevant aunts and uncles when it comes to this whole process. When the children were small and fought only one word coming out of the mouth of dad was enough to bring an end to the fight and he imposed his position on both regardless of their opinion, ensuring the peace for a day according to his taste, but what about now when both of the sides are grown ups and they are supposed to be more independent... not to forget that dad's decisions usually are in a quality of temporary containing measures so the children can basically shut up, but the problems are still there.
I think currently we are in this transitional process where the US ensures everyone can stand on its own feet while being sure that the spoiled children have the advantage in "life". While the spoiled children get more pocket money, Turkiye is forced to work overtime for everything it gets and what it doesn't get Turkiye manages to either make its own or buy it from the "neighbour" everyone in the family actually hates. In fact everyone in the family has a touching point with this "neighbour" despite the conflict for land that unites the family, but when it comes to Turkiye everybody is mad and when SHTF, no one does nothing except for talking because Turkiye is simply a step-child and can never be a real part of this family.
Turkiye despite being the step-child of this family should grow strong and independent, keep the relations with the aunts and uncles in the family that supported Turkiye in hard times.
What is next... We will soon come to a moment where these partly independent children will start digging into these temporarily frozen conflicts once dad stops supervising them and while the side of the spoiled children and the step-child start fighting the only one smiling in this whole situation will be this one bad "neighbour". Very hard times are ahead of Turkiye, because while we fight for our rights we should also look for ways to contain this neighbour.
A logical solution would be for the spoiled part of Europe and the US to recognize the rights of Turkiye to coexist with them on the same level, because Turkiye earned this right, as Turkiye served NATO in the best ways possible whenever and wherever NATO needed Turkiye. The US and Europe's spoiled part should stop looking at Turkiye as a servant and instead start looking at Turkiye as a partner and an equal. If not, then the family of NATO is destined for a decline.
The US should act fast because Erdogan is currently watching "Cinderella", gets more inspired by the day and while the story may not end with a beautiful marriage, this rising "Cinderella" with a population of 85+ million people, a growing independent defence industry, diplomatic and military power can be a very serious pain in the butt if forced. This will not be a positive scenario for no one and the damage that can be done to this whole family is a doom scenario for the whole neighbourhood. My hopes are not high tho...
