TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

GoatsMilk

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The s400 deal necessary or not Turkey needed long range defense systems, it is not Turkey's fault if they did not get it from the USA. Then one should rather question the partnership attitude of the USA. This eternal mistrust is also just a consequence of several steps and is not completly Türkiyes fault. According to the motto from US Government we don't give you PATRIOTS but you are not allowed to buy other systems either...so one thing leads to another.
The USA thinks the PKK/YPG aka SDF are freedom fighters ok then for us the HAMAS are also freedom fighters the game can also be played in pairs. Using a terrorist organization as a tool for power projection.

The game has always been imperialism, nations win and nations lose. Anther posters said it before, there is only winners and losers. The Ottomans kept losing and they were ultimately destroyed, in fact nearly the entire islamic world was conquered by non-muslims. All nations will screw Turkiye if you play the game badly.

The issue isn't about seeing Americans as good guys or friends, no. They are the single greatest threat facing Turkiye and have been for a long time. But that's the nature of the game, in reality they are a threat to most of the world and if you play the game badly they will destroy you.

The s400 was dumb, the outcome was lose lose. You gained nothing from Russia, in fact shortly after they bombed/murdered our troops and told the entire country in essence to go f'k itself. Then the Americans used s400 to kick your ass out the f35 only for the same AK party to go running back for f16's. Now don't get it twisted they are always looking for excuses/reasons to screw us, but its not our job to give them reasons. Our job is to move in a way that limits the damage they can cause to us while trying to benefit us as much as possible from the relationship of having economic, technological, political ties to the USA.

As for the USA they are a super power, a continent sized country with a 28trillion dollar economy. They have a population of 350 million and hundreds of bases across the entire globe. Your fooling yourself if you think supporting losers like hamas is a counterweight for them supporting the PKK. While Erdogan's support for Hamas will amount to nothing, no gains, no successes, it opened the door for the Americans to further delegitimise us internationally and justify further support for the PKK. Its a bit like the vampire at the door, yeah he wants to harm you but you got to invite him in first. When you make dumb decisions you invite trouble.

Looking at the last 20 years, if a hundred land mines were placed in front of Turkiye AK party walked over 95 of them, then to counter the failure they placed their own landmines and then ended up walking over them too.
 
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Kartal1

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Mashallah ya Batal! Mashallah ya ikhwani! Al mawt li Israil, al mawt li Amrika, al la'nat ala al yahud, An nasr ul-Islam! Lilililililililil

Ya ikhwani, look at this incredible job mashallah! The arrow of anger launched by our Mujahedeen (JazakAllahu khair) struck the disbelievers in the heart. The boat of shaytan (LanatAllahi aleyh) will sink inshallah and our ikhwan in Yemen will free us from the occupation of the kafireen and their hand will be broken bi idhnillah!

Yaaaa Turks! Yaaa balad al murtadeen! Who are you to do business and prosper!??! Who are you to drive the ships of apostacy trough our seas?!?!!?


In another world we would've been responding right now, but we are busy simping to Hamas.
 

IC3M@N FX

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I have a question that is OT and of course absolute fiction but do you think there is some kind of safeguard in a direct nuclear war when all 3 superpowers are going crazy and can no longer control the escalation because everyone takes the next step and leads to the next level of escalation.
That there is something like a hedge that resets this state.

For example, if you are on the verge of a nuclear war.

Such a scenario, in which the US, Russia and China have installed some sort of secret emergency system or protocol to stop war in the event of an inevitable nuclear conflict through a coordinated coup by their respective rulers, would be highly unusual, but not entirely unthinkable. Here are some thoughts on this:

1. possible existence of an emergency protocol

Omega directive or "deadlock agreement":
A protocol of this type could hypothetically exist between the three superpowers based on the mutual realization that nuclear war would be catastrophic for all involved. Such a directive could have been agreed through secret channels to create a final rescue mechanism.

Key elements of the protocol:

Automatic activation: in the event of an imminent nuclear attack on a global scale, the protocol would kick in.

Coordinated stop: All three countries could force a synchronized coup of power to eliminate the potential for escalation.

A "reset" system: Those in charge could be replaced by transitional governments or technocratic groups with the sole aim of restoring peace.

2. realistic implementation

Silent power structures:
Such a system would have to be deeply embedded in the military or intelligence apparatuses of the three countries, independent of the respective rulers. There could be groups in the intelligence services (e.g. CIA, FSB, MSS) involved in such an arrangement.

Backchannels and communication:
This type of cooperation would run through discreet channels that are not always known even to senior policy makers. These channels could be maintained by Cold War veterans or specialized security groups.

Collusion among generals:
In all three states, there could be collusion among high-ranking military officers to prevent a global Armageddon. These generals would be pragmatic actors who understand the long-term consequences of all-out war.

3. challenges of such a system

Mistrust between the superpowers:
Russia, China and the US historically have a deep mistrust of each other. The assumption that they could agree on such a joint protocol is optimistic, though not impossible.

Risk of a power vacuum:
A coup against those in power could create a dangerous power vacuum, especially in authoritarian regimes such as Russia or China. In the USA, this could lead to constitutional chaos.

Sabotage and internal conflicts:
Not all actors within the three countries would agree with such a plan. Radical elements could try to prevent the coup or exacerbate the situation.

Technological escalations:
Even if such a coup were successful, automated weapons systems or AI-driven nuclear programs could escalate further, regardless of human intervention.

4. historical precedents and inspiration

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD):
During the Cold War, strategy was based on the premise that no country would launch a nuclear attack, as this guaranteed mutual destruction. A secret emergency protocol could emerge as a logical development of this principle.

Able Archer 83:
During this NATO exercise, the Soviet Union believed a real attack was underway and covert communication channels were needed to stop the escalation. Such events may have led to considerations for an Omega Protocol.

The fear of "uncontrollables":
In authoritarian regimes such as Russia or China, there may be a concern that an individual leader is acting irrationally. Such a protocol could serve as an internal safeguard.

5. fictitious or speculative models

This concept is strongly reminiscent of scenarios from science fiction or geopolitical novels:

"Fail-Safe" (1964): a movie in which a nuclear conflict is only prevented by drastic measures.

Secret "government overthrows": Stories about shadow governments or "deep state" organizations coordinating across national borders.

6. conclusion

Such a system would be extremely secret and would require the cooperation of the deepest power structures in the three superpowers. The idea of an "Omega Protocol" or coordinated coup is intriguing and would require all parties involved to place an overarching, global responsibility above their national interests. It is difficult to say whether such a system actually exists, but it is not entirely implausible that high-ranking actors in the intelligence services or military are thinking about this possibility.

Why I am thinking about this is because the Chinese may have cut the telecommunications cable between Europe and Finland or damaged maybe a preparation for an invasion from Russia....?
In Ukraine in Kiev a massive attack on the capital is expected, the US embassy has already been closed in Kiev.
Of course it is unlikely that these scenarios will happen but it also made me wonder how escalation levels could go on and on.
 
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Mis_TR_Like

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On Turkish MFA's post about the attack on a Turkish ship there were countless people celebrating... of course the usual suspects (Islamists).

These people have lost the plot since the Israel-Hamas war started. They've been frothing at the mouth at everything opportunity, trying to damage Turkish-Azerbaijani ties, attacking businesses and now even celebrating an attack on a Turkish ship all for the sake of their agenda.
 

Anastasius

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I legitimately don't see any reason why Turkey SHOULDN'T hand over every single Hamas member and their property to the US (and try to bargain for some extra goodies in the process). Turkey wins literally nothing by providing a safe haven to these guys.
 

IC3M@N FX

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I legitimately don't see any reason why Turkey SHOULDN'T hand over every single Hamas member and their property to the US (and try to bargain for some extra goodies in the process). Turkey wins literally nothing by providing a safe haven to these guys.
It is also of no use to the USA to hold on to the PKK/YPG, which has long since crushed ISIS - there is no immediate threat and there hasn't been for a long time.
Nevertheless, this force is the extended tool of the USA in Syria and Iraq....
 

Anastasius

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It is also of no use to the USA to hold on to the PKK/YPG, which has long since crushed ISIS - there is no immediate threat and there hasn't been for a long time.
Nevertheless, this force is the extended tool of the USA in Syria and Iraq....
If the US is doing something stupid that doesn’t mean Turks should follow suit.
 

Dennixtoue

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I legitimately don't see any reason why Turkey SHOULDN'T hand over every single Hamas member and their property to the US (and try to bargain for some extra goodies in the process). Turkey wins literally nothing by providing a safe haven to these guys.
with all due respect why you believe the people of Türkiye will buy into this regurgitating a political bargain sellout to 'wish' get some extra goodies
 

Anastasius

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with all due respect why you believe the people of Türkiye will buy into this regurgitating a political bargain sellout to 'wish' get some extra goodies
Turkiye wins by giving up Hamas members either way. Either you hand them over and get extra concessions out of it or you don’t get anything but either way, Hamas is gone and not able to undermine Turkiye from within.
 

Iskander

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I legitimately don't see any reason why Turkey SHOULDN'T hand over every single Hamas member and their property to the US (and try to bargain for some extra goodies in the process). Turkey wins literally nothing by providing a safe haven to these guys.
Erdogan presents AK Rarti as a defender of the rights of the oppressed all over the world. And you suggest that Türkiye should catch these same oppressed people all over the world and hand them over to the American imperialists? :)
 

Sanchez

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"NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is due to visit Turkiye on Monday Will meet President Erdoğan, plus FM Fidan + DM Güler. Also notably will visit Turkish Aerospace (TUSAŞ) in Ankara, the scene of the PKK attack last month.... Also notably he will then be in Greece the day after, where he'll meet the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and Defence Minister."

 

Kartal1

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NATO must stay resilient and strong for the upcoming 4 years and beyond.
The way I see it is that NATO is in a serious decline.

Lack of determination, new rising challenges and internal problems will raise the needs for an alternative body to NATO.

With the increasing pressure on the US in the Asia Pacific, the realization of the fact that Europe can not stand on its own feet militarily, the changing priorities of the countries in NATO will push for the realization of the need for an European collective security body independent from NATO of which leader will be France. Trump's government will press even further and this process may start to be seriously considered and concrete steps to be taken towards this direction. This body will create further troubles for Turkiye in Africa, the Aegean, the Mediterranean and Caucasus.

Of course such an initiative in order to be structured and put to action in the best way possible will need time to mature. The countdown for us is the establishment of this body and the increase of Iranian military capabilities to a certain level. We should reach a certain level of military capabilities and diplomatic capacity before this countdown ends. We should make everything possible to time this well and balance the tempo of these developments so all our adversaries can be busy and contained while we still have time to catch our breath. We should keep them busy.
 

Sanchez

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The way I see it is that NATO is in a serious decline.

Lack of determination, new rising challenges and internal problems will raise the needs for an alternative body to NATO.

With the increasing pressure on the US in the Asia Pacific, the realization of the fact that Europe can not stand on its own feet militarily, the changing priorities of the countries in NATO will push for the realization of the need for an European collective security body independent from NATO of which leader will be France. Trump's government will press even further and this process may start to be seriously considered and concrete steps to be taken towards this direction. This body will create further troubles for Turkiye in Africa, the Aegean, the Mediterranean and Caucasus.

Of course such an initiative in order to be structured and put to action in the best way possible will need time to mature. The countdown for us is the establishment of this body and the increase of Iranian military capabilities to a certain level. We should reach a certain level of military capabilities and diplomatic capacity before this countdown ends. We should make everything possible to time this well and balance the tempo of these developments so all our adversaries can be busy and contained while we still have time to catch our breath. We should keep them busy.
I think we will also see increased bilateral security relations from the Baltics down to Poland, Romania and Black Sea to Turkey, a new eastern axis, solely against Russia. Russian encroachment there doesn't serve us at all, with or without NATO considerations.
 

No Name

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The way I see it is that NATO is in a serious decline.

Lack of determination, new rising challenges and internal problems will raise the needs for an alternative body to NATO.

With the increasing pressure on the US in the Asia Pacific, the realization of the fact that Europe can not stand on its own feet militarily, the changing priorities of the countries in NATO will push for the realization of the need for an European collective security body independent from NATO of which leader will be France. Trump's government will press even further and this process may start to be seriously considered and concrete steps to be taken towards this direction. This body will create further troubles for Turkiye in Africa, the Aegean, the Mediterranean and Caucasus.

Of course such an initiative in order to be structured and put to action in the best way possible will need time to mature. The countdown for us is the establishment of this body and the increase of Iranian military capabilities to a certain level. We should reach a certain level of military capabilities and diplomatic capacity before this countdown ends. We should make everything possible to time this well and balance the tempo of these developments so all our adversaries can be busy and contained while we still have time to catch our breath. We should keep them busy.
Peter Zeihan discussed this 4 months ago. He concluded that the entire EU relies on German economic strength in financing unification and that France be forced to replace Germany in the coming future as the economic unifier of Europe.

The French people will not be willing to carry the burden, especially as more and more Germans retire in the coming years and become more of a benefactor rather than a contributor to the economy. Thus, a European army is unlikely as the burdern of maintaining the EU grows to become to much for France.
 
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Anastasius

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France simply isn't capable of being the leader of a European confederacy whether economically or militarily unified. Even Germany isn't really the de-facto leader of the EU, they are basically a proxy for the US. I could see a UK that got its shit together being able to efficiently lead Europe but they don't really care enough plus I've noticed a curious trend among British people in that they don't really identify themselves as "European". There's almost an air of superiority present where they perceive themselves as better than and separate from the rest of the European nations. If you pay close enough attention you can even detect it among British far-right/white nationalist movements where they occasionally let the mask slip.
 

Afif

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@Kartal1 @Sanchez There is no doubt United States increasingly wants Europe to carry most of its own security burden within existing NATO set-up, however, any push for serious independent European security body is not something United States may want in the long run. Specially if it means effectively making NATO useless. It is still the apparatus through which US partly exercise its power in MENA in case of large events. As US hard power shift more and more toward Indo-Pacific, it will need NATO more to directly exercise authority in MENA.

That may allow a strategic realignment between USA and Türkiye, in which Türkiye will hold NATO together and keep it relevant using its increasing military and diplomatic might. With a new Eastern axis as @Sanchez proposed.

Because in the end, a United independent European security body is more dangerous for Türkiye than a declined Russia. IMO, only by keeping US and existing NATO apparatus relevant here, Türkiye can realistically counter that.
 

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