TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

GoatsMilk

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The s400 deal necessary or not Turkey needed long range defense systems, it is not Turkey's fault if they did not get it from the USA. Then one should rather question the partnership attitude of the USA. This eternal mistrust is also just a consequence of several steps and is not completly Türkiyes fault. According to the motto from US Government we don't give you PATRIOTS but you are not allowed to buy other systems either...so one thing leads to another.
The USA thinks the PKK/YPG aka SDF are freedom fighters ok then for us the HAMAS are also freedom fighters the game can also be played in pairs. Using a terrorist organization as a tool for power projection.

The game has always been imperialism, nations win and nations lose. Anther posters said it before, there is only winners and losers. The Ottomans kept losing and they were ultimately destroyed, in fact nearly the entire islamic world was conquered by non-muslims. All nations will screw Turkiye if you play the game badly.

The issue isn't about seeing Americans as good guys or friends, no. They are the single greatest threat facing Turkiye and have been for a long time. But that's the nature of the game, in reality they are a threat to most of the world and if you play the game badly they will destroy you.

The s400 was dumb, the outcome was lose lose. You gained nothing from Russia, in fact shortly after they bombed/murdered our troops and told the entire country in essence to go f'k itself. Then the Americans used s400 to kick your ass out the f35 only for the same AK party to go running back for f16's. Now don't get it twisted they are always looking for excuses/reasons to screw us, but its not our job to give them reasons. Our job is to move in a way that limits the damage they can cause to us while trying to benefit us as much as possible from the relationship of having economic, technological, political ties to the USA.

As for the USA they are a super power, a continent sized country with a 28trillion dollar economy. They have a population of 350 million and hundreds of bases across the entire globe. Your fooling yourself if you think supporting losers like hamas is a counterweight for them supporting the PKK. While Erdogan's support for Hamas will amount to nothing, no gains, no successes, it opened the door for the Americans to further delegitimise us internationally and justify further support for the PKK. Its a bit like the vampire at the door, yeah he wants to harm you but you got to invite him in first. When you make dumb decisions you invite trouble.

Looking at the last 20 years, if a hundred land mines were placed in front of Turkiye AK party walked over 95 of them, then to counter the failure they placed their own landmines and then ended up walking over them too.
 
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Kartal1

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Mashallah ya Batal! Mashallah ya ikhwani! Al mawt li Israil, al mawt li Amrika, al la'nat ala al yahud, An nasr ul-Islam! Lilililililililil

Ya ikhwani, look at this incredible job mashallah! The arrow of anger launched by our Mujahedeen (JazakAllahu khair) struck the disbelievers in the heart. The boat of shaytan (LanatAllahi aleyh) will sink inshallah and our ikhwan in Yemen will free us from the occupation of the kafireen and their hand will be broken bi idhnillah!

Yaaaa Turks! Yaaa balad al murtadeen! Who are you to do business and prosper!??! Who are you to drive the ships of apostacy trough our seas?!?!!?


In another world we would've been responding right now, but we are busy simping to Hamas.
 

IC3M@N FX

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I have a question that is OT and of course absolute fiction but do you think there is some kind of safeguard in a direct nuclear war when all 3 superpowers are going crazy and can no longer control the escalation because everyone takes the next step and leads to the next level of escalation.
That there is something like a hedge that resets this state.

For example, if you are on the verge of a nuclear war.

Such a scenario, in which the US, Russia and China have installed some sort of secret emergency system or protocol to stop war in the event of an inevitable nuclear conflict through a coordinated coup by their respective rulers, would be highly unusual, but not entirely unthinkable. Here are some thoughts on this:

1. possible existence of an emergency protocol

Omega directive or "deadlock agreement":
A protocol of this type could hypothetically exist between the three superpowers based on the mutual realization that nuclear war would be catastrophic for all involved. Such a directive could have been agreed through secret channels to create a final rescue mechanism.

Key elements of the protocol:

Automatic activation: in the event of an imminent nuclear attack on a global scale, the protocol would kick in.

Coordinated stop: All three countries could force a synchronized coup of power to eliminate the potential for escalation.

A "reset" system: Those in charge could be replaced by transitional governments or technocratic groups with the sole aim of restoring peace.

2. realistic implementation

Silent power structures:
Such a system would have to be deeply embedded in the military or intelligence apparatuses of the three countries, independent of the respective rulers. There could be groups in the intelligence services (e.g. CIA, FSB, MSS) involved in such an arrangement.

Backchannels and communication:
This type of cooperation would run through discreet channels that are not always known even to senior policy makers. These channels could be maintained by Cold War veterans or specialized security groups.

Collusion among generals:
In all three states, there could be collusion among high-ranking military officers to prevent a global Armageddon. These generals would be pragmatic actors who understand the long-term consequences of all-out war.

3. challenges of such a system

Mistrust between the superpowers:
Russia, China and the US historically have a deep mistrust of each other. The assumption that they could agree on such a joint protocol is optimistic, though not impossible.

Risk of a power vacuum:
A coup against those in power could create a dangerous power vacuum, especially in authoritarian regimes such as Russia or China. In the USA, this could lead to constitutional chaos.

Sabotage and internal conflicts:
Not all actors within the three countries would agree with such a plan. Radical elements could try to prevent the coup or exacerbate the situation.

Technological escalations:
Even if such a coup were successful, automated weapons systems or AI-driven nuclear programs could escalate further, regardless of human intervention.

4. historical precedents and inspiration

Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD):
During the Cold War, strategy was based on the premise that no country would launch a nuclear attack, as this guaranteed mutual destruction. A secret emergency protocol could emerge as a logical development of this principle.

Able Archer 83:
During this NATO exercise, the Soviet Union believed a real attack was underway and covert communication channels were needed to stop the escalation. Such events may have led to considerations for an Omega Protocol.

The fear of "uncontrollables":
In authoritarian regimes such as Russia or China, there may be a concern that an individual leader is acting irrationally. Such a protocol could serve as an internal safeguard.

5. fictitious or speculative models

This concept is strongly reminiscent of scenarios from science fiction or geopolitical novels:

"Fail-Safe" (1964): a movie in which a nuclear conflict is only prevented by drastic measures.

Secret "government overthrows": Stories about shadow governments or "deep state" organizations coordinating across national borders.

6. conclusion

Such a system would be extremely secret and would require the cooperation of the deepest power structures in the three superpowers. The idea of an "Omega Protocol" or coordinated coup is intriguing and would require all parties involved to place an overarching, global responsibility above their national interests. It is difficult to say whether such a system actually exists, but it is not entirely implausible that high-ranking actors in the intelligence services or military are thinking about this possibility.

Why I am thinking about this is because the Chinese may have cut the telecommunications cable between Europe and Finland or damaged maybe a preparation for an invasion from Russia....?
In Ukraine in Kiev a massive attack on the capital is expected, the US embassy has already been closed in Kiev.
Of course it is unlikely that these scenarios will happen but it also made me wonder how escalation levels could go on and on.
 
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Iskander

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Islamism today is mostly a major tool used by the enemies of Islam to undermine, control and if required destroy Muslim majority societies. AK party along with their FETO buddies are the very definition of Islamists. If you pay attention, one their hallmarks is turning the nation in on itself. This has taken place in Turkiye where incrementally they attack everything Turkish, while they promote everything against Turkish interests ...
You see, there is a contradiction between Islamism and nationalism, including Turkish nationalism, which was noticed by contemporaries 150 years ago. This is the contradiction we see today in Turkish society. Here's the thing. Islamism ("all Muslims are brothers!" is like Soviet communism's "workers of the world, unite!") is a more appropriate idea for all Muslim countries. If you want to unite all Muslims, then you raise the green banner of Islam, and to avoid contradiction, you put a taboo on any nationalism. But if you decide to strengthen the national state, then you raise the red banner with the star and the crescent...

P.S. Keep in mind that I am not writing about religion, but about the ideas in general
 
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Mis_TR_Like

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On Turkish MFA's post about the attack on a Turkish ship there were countless people celebrating... of course the usual suspects (Islamists).

These people have lost the plot since the Israel-Hamas war started. They've been frothing at the mouth at everything opportunity, trying to damage Turkish-Azerbaijani ties, attacking businesses and now even celebrating an attack on a Turkish ship all for the sake of their agenda.
 

Anastasius

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I legitimately don't see any reason why Turkey SHOULDN'T hand over every single Hamas member and their property to the US (and try to bargain for some extra goodies in the process). Turkey wins literally nothing by providing a safe haven to these guys.
 

IC3M@N FX

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I legitimately don't see any reason why Turkey SHOULDN'T hand over every single Hamas member and their property to the US (and try to bargain for some extra goodies in the process). Turkey wins literally nothing by providing a safe haven to these guys.
It is also of no use to the USA to hold on to the PKK/YPG, which has long since crushed ISIS - there is no immediate threat and there hasn't been for a long time.
Nevertheless, this force is the extended tool of the USA in Syria and Iraq....
 

Anastasius

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It is also of no use to the USA to hold on to the PKK/YPG, which has long since crushed ISIS - there is no immediate threat and there hasn't been for a long time.
Nevertheless, this force is the extended tool of the USA in Syria and Iraq....
If the US is doing something stupid that doesn’t mean Turks should follow suit.
 

Dennixtoue

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I legitimately don't see any reason why Turkey SHOULDN'T hand over every single Hamas member and their property to the US (and try to bargain for some extra goodies in the process). Turkey wins literally nothing by providing a safe haven to these guys.
with all due respect why you believe the people of Türkiye will buy into this regurgitating a political bargain sellout to 'wish' get some extra goodies
 

Anastasius

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with all due respect why you believe the people of Türkiye will buy into this regurgitating a political bargain sellout to 'wish' get some extra goodies
Turkiye wins by giving up Hamas members either way. Either you hand them over and get extra concessions out of it or you don’t get anything but either way, Hamas is gone and not able to undermine Turkiye from within.
 

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