Weapons & Ammunition: Should Germany Buy from Turkey?
Navid Linnemann
Head of Online Editorial
[email protected]
Amidst drone volleys and the thunder of rockets, Turkey showcases its capabilities at EFES 2026—and demonstrates what Germany urgently needs. While Erdoğan’s police storm opposition offices, Berlin is allegedly interested in Turkish intercontinental ballistic missiles. An exclusive look behind the scenes of Turkey's largest military exercise, the record-breaking SAHA 2026 defense expo in Istanbul—and at a dilemma of German security policy: Can you buy weapons from an autocrat when your own security depends on it?
In May, Turkey demonstrated its newfound strength as a defense industry nation on multiple levels. The climax took place during the EFES 2026 exercise.
Photo: CPM / Navid Linnemann
- From Dependence to Autarky – Erdoğan’s Defense Revolution
- Record after Record – The Turkish Defense Industry
- The Uncomfortable Question of Quality
- Closing the Security Gap: What Germany Needs Now
- Is Germany Also Buying High-Tech Rockets from Turkey?
- A Topsy-Turvy World: Germany as a Buyer Instead of a Seller
- Doing Business with an Autocrat – The Poisoned Partnership
- Between Necessity and Morality – Germany’s Dilemma
The bang is deafening; the shockwave shifts camera tripods. Across the expansive Doğanbey training and firing range—a few kilometers south of Izmir—volleys of heavy artillery thunder over the hills first, followed by attack helicopters firing air-to-ground missiles, accompanied repeatedly by applause from the audience. Turkey is firing its way through its current ammunition portfolio.
It is the first evening of the two-day closing exercise at EFES 2026, Turkey's largest multinational military exercise. More than 10,000 soldiers from Turkey and partner nations have participated in recent weeks. The closing exercise is a pure spectacle designed to leave the guests, who have arrived from 50 nations, in awe.
What the Turkish Armed Forces present in live-fire drills, and what the domestic defense industry showcases on the adjacent exhibition mile, is impressively versatile: The Korkut air defense system, with its twin 35mm guns, fires programmable airburst ammunition at drone targets. Self-propelled artillery systems, mortars, armored vehicles, ships, landing craft, and drones of various types—all "Made in Turkey," as the organizers never tire of emphasizing.
The name hints at it: Roketsan offers a large assortment of rockets and guided missiles—including the Tayfun Block 4 (here in the foreground at SAHA 2026).
Photo: CPM / Navid Linnemann
A week earlier—at SAHA 2026 in Istanbul—the message was even clearer: The Turkish defense industry has transformed from an importer into a global player. The share of domestically produced defense equipment has reportedly risen from around 20 percent in the early 2000s to 83 percent today. In terms of exports, the southeastern European country broke through the ten-billion-US-dollar threshold for the first time last year. Products whose latest iterations were displayed with immense pride in Istanbul and near Izmir.
Over 150,000 visitors flocked to the six-day exhibition; export contracts worth around 8 billion dollars are said to have been signed there. Purchasing delegations from Africa, South America, and large parts of Asia crowded between the exhibition booths. Turkey has something to offer—and it wants to sell.
To Germany, too.
From Dependence to Autarky – Erdoğan’s Defense Revolution
The transformation of the Turkish defense industry is unprecedented. What began in the 1970s with the founding of Aselsan has experienced a dramatic acceleration under Erdoğan’s government since 2003. According to official figures, state spending on defense research and development tripled between 2007 and 2019. The reasons for this lie in Turkish history—and in the fact that the country is urgently dependent on foreign funds due to numerous economic and currency crises.
The Executive Committee of the Turkish Defense Industry is chaired by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Photo: Communications Office of the Turkish Presidential Administration
A turning point in Turkish defense industrialization came in 1974 when the US imposed an arms embargo in response to the Turkish military invasion of Cyprus. From the Turkish perspective, the lesson back then was clear: anyone dependent on foreign suppliers can be politically blackmailed. It is a lesson that many other European states are relearning today regarding US systems and Chinese supply chains.
According to Haluk Görgün, President of the Turkish Defence Industry Agency (Savunma Sanayii Başkanlığı, SSB), the flourishing industry generated revenue exceeding 20 billion US dollars for the first time in 2025. This has turned the Turkish defense industry, with its more than 4,000 companies and over 100,000 employees, into a core sector of the Turkish economy.
Internationally, five Turkish defense companies now rank among the top 100 in the world: Aselsan (43rd), Turkish Aerospace Industries (47th), Roketsan (71st), Asfat (78th), and MKE (80th). By comparison, Germany only has four companies on this list: Rheinmetall (20th), Hensoldt (52nd), Diehl (82nd), and Renk (95th). However, European joint ventures such as Airbus, MBDA, and KNDS are not counted toward Germany.
Record after Record – The Turkish Defense Industry
In 2025, exports by the Turkish defense and aerospace industry reached a record 10.54 billion dollars, representing a 48 percent increase over the previous year. Turkey ranks 11th globally among arms exporters. This significant boom in the defense sector is also reflected in total exports: its share stood at 3.6 percent in 2025, compared to just 1.7 percent in 2022. By comparison, the defense share of German exports in 2025 was approximately 0.84 percent.
Turkish bestseller: TB2.
Photo: CPM / Navid Linnemann
The best-known systems of Turkish production are undoubtedly the drones from the Istanbul-based company Baykar Technologies—which, interestingly, is not among the international TOP 100. However, its HALE and MALE drones have effectively demonstrated their capabilities in conflicts ranging from Azerbaijan and Libya to Ukraine.
Yet the portfolio of the Turkish defense industry is much broader: from textiles and individual system components to sensors, ammunition, tanks, and the independently developed Kaan fighter jet. Turkey can already do a lot, and it is doing more every year.
The Uncomfortable Question of Quality
However, the crucial question for any potential buyer remains: Do Turkish systems deliver what they promise? The answer is complex: Turkish drones and weapons systems have been combat-tested in real operations—in Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine. The Bayraktar TB2 proved to be a cost-effective and efficient weapon against older air defense systems.
However, limits also became apparent: Today, Turkish drones are no longer used on the Ukrainian front lines. Russia has learned to neutralize them, and innovation cycles in Turkey are not on par with Ukrainian developments.
In the field of short-range drone defense, Aselsan's Korkut system is worth noting. It was deployed to Libya in January 2020 to counter hostile drones. There is little independent data regarding its actual effectiveness in combat.
When it comes to missiles, things get even more difficult. According to its own reports, Turkey conducted a successful test of the upgraded Tayfun missile in October 2025. The test reportedly demonstrated extended range, high-precision strike capabilities, and hypersonic performance. The test was heavily promoted in the media (see video below). Just how good and accurate the technology truly is cannot always be verified beyond doubt by observers.
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There are skeptical voices at the Istanbul exhibition and also among observers of the "EFES 2026 performance showcase." For instance, actual ranges, payload capacities, and advanced features like maneuverability or techniques to bypass defense systems remain unpublished by the manufacturer Roketsan, raising doubts about various performance claims.
The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle: Turkey has developed functional systems that are effective in certain scenarios. Whether they meet the highest Western standards is unclear. For many buyers—especially in regions with limited budgets—the price-to-performance ratio is more critical than absolute peak performance.
Another issue is the question of genuine domestic development. Although the label on Turkish defense goods is always "
milli ve yerli" (national and indigenous), critics point out that many Turkish systems are based on foreign technology or at least contain foreign components.
The Kaan fighter jet, for example, still uses US engines for its flights so far, as the Turkish TEI-TF35000 engine is not yet finished.
The name hints at it: Roketsan offers a large assortment of rockets and guided missiles—including the Tayfun Block 4 (here in the foreground at SAHA 2026).
Photo: CPM / Navid Linnemann
Closing the Security Gap: What Germany Needs Now
Back to Doğanbey on the Turkish Aegean coast. Among the international guests are also German staff officers. Attending EFES as observers, they have been in the country for some time. The Bundeswehr, according to the assessment of one officer, should take a closer look at Turkey.
There are areas where Germany is hitting capacity limits, but Turkey can deliver quickly. 155mm artillery ammunition is a good example. Turkey can deliver on short notice through several companies that produce to NATO standards. For other defense goods, however, the German soldier estimates that Turkey is still much further behind than people in Ankara care to admit.
One of Turkey's leading defense manufacturers—MKE—presented excerpts from its ammunition portfolio in Istanbul.
Photo: CPM / Navid Linnemann
For Germany, however, the urgency is real. Even with special funds, the suspension of the debt brake, and massive investments in industry, Germany will not be able to close all gaps simultaneously. Added to this is an increasingly clear loss of US reliability.
Since Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted a "deep ditch" between Europe and the US at the Munich Security Conference in February 2026 and called for "change, upheaval—and yes, even sacrifices," Germany has been feverishly searching for ways to increasingly strengthen its military capabilities without the United States.
Is Germany Also Buying High-Tech Rockets from Turkey?
Just how necessary this is became clear with US President Donald Trump’s reversal in early May of the agreement between Joe Biden and former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz—allegedly due to remarks made by the former German Chancellor, but more likely due to stockpiles severely depleted by the war with Iran. In any case, American deep precision strike capabilities, such as the Tomahawk cruise missile with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, are now not going to be stationed in Germany after all—a bitter loss of security for all of Europe given the long-range missiles stationed in Kaliningrad.
Then comes Turkey's entrance: according to a German media report, Berlin is currently "specifically working" on procuring the Turkish Yıldırımhan intercontinental ballistic missile, which allegedly boasts a range of 6,000 kilometers. However, this missile was only unveiled two weeks ago at SAHA and is still under development (
Defence Network reported). The Tayfun Block 4 hypersonic missile, which is also still under development, is also said to be a focus for German procurers.
Spokesman for the Turkish Armed Forces, Flotilla Admiral Zeki Aktürk, at the weekly press conference—this time in front of the Doğanbey training grounds.
Photo: CPM / Navid Linnemann
Yet when asked, the spokesman for the Turkish Armed Forces, Flotilla Admiral Zeki Aktürk, plays it down: "There are no specific talks regarding Tayfun missiles or other missiles with Germany." However, the media report from Germany suspects an announcement of the deal could come as early as this year's NATO summit in Ankara—in two months. Admiral Aktürk did at least attest to Germany's interest in closer relations with his country, adding: "We will see together in the coming period how this develops."
The explosiveness of this can hardly be overstated: a Turkish intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 6,000 kilometers would reach not just Moscow, but large parts of Russia, regardless of whether it is stationed in Germany or in NATO partner Turkey. By purchasing it, Germany would make itself more independent of American weapons systems—but would simultaneously enter into a strategic dependency on Turkey, which was already proven to be a bad idea during the 2016 refugee agreement.
A Topsy-Turvy World: Germany as a Buyer Instead of a Seller
Trade relations between Germany and Turkey in the defense sector (and beyond) are already substantial—though primarily in one direction. Turkey was one of the largest buyers of German defense goods in 2025.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Germany was the largest supplier of major conventional weapons to Turkey in the 2021–2025 period, accounting for 31 percent of Turkish arms imports, followed by Spain with 29 percent and Italy with 19 percent.
Yıldırımhan – with it, Turkey demonstrates its capability to build an intercontinental ballistic missile. The inscription at the tip is the signature of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey.
Photo: CPM / Navid Linnemann
This one-sided relationship could change. "The geopolitical and geostrategic importance of the Republic of Turkey is increasing by the day and will continue to grow," said Flotilla Admiral Aktürk.
By importance, the military spokesperson explicitly meant not only Turkey's position on the map and its role in NATO, but also its very rapidly growing defense industry. From Turkey's perspective, it is therefore only logical if Germany and other European nations go on defense shopping sprees in Turkey in the future.
Doing Business with an Autocrat – The Poisoned Partnership
And this is where it gets tricky. Even if Turkish systems impress technically and are attractively priced—the political framework conditions remain highly problematic. Just yesterday, another fracture occurred in the decay of Turkish democracy: police stormed the offices of the main opposition party, the CHP, firing tear gas and rubber bullets at supporters and party officials.
Prior to this, a court had removed the incumbent party leader, Özgür Özel, due to allegations of manipulation during his election three years ago, replacing him with an unpopular predecessor.
Furthermore, the popular mayor of Istanbul and most promising challenger to President Erdoğan in the upcoming 2028 election, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has been on trial since March 2026 over alleged corruption charges—just like party leaders of other parties and dozens of opposition mayors and political actors across the country.
Erdoğan’s ruling AKP has not led the CHP in any poll for over two years; his voted removal in a free and fair election would be highly probable due to the ongoing economic crisis in the country.
Imprisoned in Turkey since March 2025: Istanbul's Mayor and strongest challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: Ekrem İmamoğlu.
Photo: CHP
Added to this are geopolitical gray zones: Turkey is a NATO member but maintains close ties with countries that Western partners view critically. Erdoğan has received Hamas leaders in Ankara.
Turkey continues to maintain relations with Russia and its ruler Vladimir Putin. In Syria, Turkey supports Islamist militias that are viewed skeptically by Western partners. For the first time, elements of the Syrian armed forces and forces from war-torn Libya also participated in the EFES exercise near Izmir, as Flotilla Admiral Aktürk highlighted.
Critics also point out that Erdoğan’s inner circle profits from the defense industry. Selçuk Bayraktar, co-founder of Baykar Technologies, is Erdoğan’s son-in-law. In Turkey, the boundaries between state, economy, and family are blurring, mirroring trends seen in Russia and increasingly in the US.
Between Necessity and Morality – Germany’s Dilemma
Germany faces a dilemma. On one hand, the Bundeswehr has real needs that the domestic industry cannot meet in the short term. The Turkish defense industry offers solutions that function technically and are significantly cheaper than Western and Central European alternatives. Turkey is a NATO partner and strategically important for European security.
On the other hand, Turkey under Erdoğan has turned into an autocratic state that interprets NATO solidarity selectively and pursues its own geopolitical interests, which do not always align with Germany's.
On a hill near Izmir, the Turkish national flag is painted on the ground on a large scale; underneath it reads: "GÜÇLÜYÜZ – CESURUZ – HAZIRIZ" ("We are strong – We are brave – We are ready").
Photo: CPM / Navid Linnemann
So, should Germany buy weapons and ammunition from Turkey? It remains a question that must be answered not just technically, but above all politically and strategically. Anyone buying Turkish defense equipment strengthens a regime that has been disregarding democratic standards for a long time. At the same time, given the current security situation, Germany can hardly afford to pass up functioning and available weapons systems.
The Turkish military exercise EFES—referred to by the Turkish press as a "
gövde gösterisi" (show of force)—concluded this week. The clatter of helicopter rotors and the impacts of artillery still echo over the hills of Doğanbey, even as the first holidaymakers begin to occupy neighboring beaches: Wednesday marks the start of the Islamic Feast of Sacrifice (Eid al-Adha), giving Turkish workers a nine-day holiday.
Whether this applies to the defense industry is unclear. After all, its systems are selling more and more. The question is not whether Turkey will establish itself on the world market. The question is whether Europe and Germany can find an answer on how they want to handle this new, self-confident, and politically complicated player on the international arms market.
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