The three founding countries form a strong foundation with their capacities, historical backgrounds, and geopolitical characteristics. However, while these three are founding states, the alliance will soon enter a process of expansion once the necessary institutional framework is established. There is a potential for a much larger goal than what is immediately apparent; we don't know what the grand strategy is, but the situation will become clearer when the institutional mechanisms become functional.
This security agreement is actually the first major step in aligning national interests under a common security umbrella, following numerous workshops over the years and many recent economic, logistical, and energy agreements or joint vision statements. There will be truly challenging phases here. Especially under the heading of expansion, if the Egyptian issue, the integration of Indonesia and Malaysia on both sides of the Strait of Malacca, and the expansion into North Africa and the Caspian Sea are successfully overcome, a military security alliance controlling all waterways, straits, trade routes, energy resources, and human resources between the China-EU blocs will be indispensable globally.
-A small side note regarding Turkiye;- We need to start interpreting the next 30 years of the navy in the context of this new security paradigm. Because the weak point of this newly formed alliance will be its naval power. The high pace at MUGEM, which many naval analysts find baffling, and the NUKDEN vision—which, technically, might be a topic for the 2040s—or, to give a more comprehensive example, the fact that we can now launch three ships in six months for alliad states, don't seem like unrelated issues to me.
Even considering the potential first wave of expansion of this alliance, the only serious naval power is TN. I'm not talking about paying for the construction of frigates; I'm talking about the training and combat capacity of its Navy Staff, its naval tradition, and, equally importantly, its ability to design and rapidly mass-produce these ships, including their subsystems, within its own doctrinal approach; and to maintain all these systems at a very high level of combat readiness. With its accumulated experience and industrial capabilities, the Turkish navy can quickly transform into a "blue navy" and become a key player in improving the naval capabilities of other elements of the alliance. So, while everyone is looking at KAAN, Kızılelma, or combat aviation, the real major capacity contribution will be opening up a wider area of military-industrial support for our allies within this alliance. I believe this could open up a vast area that cannot be squeezed between hesitations regarding technology transfer and could become a huge leverage for the Turkish defense industry. If managed correctly, the progress that would take 30 years can be achieved in 10-15 years.