Analysis How Turkey canceled the advantage of the newly introduced Greek Rafale.

Foulgrim

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The main reason why many in Greece supported the purchase of French Rafale fighters was the fact that their advantages are unknown to the Turkish Air Force. This gives the Greek Air Force an advantage and puts in a difficult position the Turkish pilots who have not faced the Rafale in the field. But is that so, or is it the responsibility of France that Turkey finally knows the secrets of the Rafale, before Greece even acquires them? Last week, much was written about Qatar's decision to relocate 36 of its aircraft to Turkey, including Rafale. This action cancels the primary reason why Greece acquired Rafale. The reaction of the French was unfortunately lukewarm trying to downplay the issue. However, as it seems from the photo, things are worse!
The photo that exposes France(Anatolian Eagle 2021)
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He is a pilot of the Pakistan Air Force, as seen from the flag on his arm. Pilots of Azerbaijan and Turkey are sitting next to him and behind him, as part of the "Anatolian Eagle 2021" exercise, organized by Turkey together with its allies, Pakistan, Qatar and, for the first time, Azerbaijan. Few noticed a detail, which is clearly reflected in the second photo in the red circle. The Pakistani pilot in question carried the Rafale fighter badge on his arm above the Pakistani flag. This is where the questions begin, because Pakistan does not have Rafale. So where and to what extent does the Pakistani pilot carry this badge?
The story goes back a long way, before Greece decided to procure Rafale fighter jets, that is, since India decided to procure them in the distant 2016. In April 2019, an article in the Indian "Hindustan Times" blamed France because, according to the columnist Rezaul Hasan Laskar, while India had ordered Rafale "Pakistan sent two of its pilots to Paris to be trained in them, before they even get into operational readiness by the Indian Air Force"! That revelation spread, forcing the French Ambassador to India, Alexander Zingler, to refute it, calling it "fake news"! Laskar's article was written in 2019, but referred to a 2016 report written in Arabic, which stated that "France's Dassault Aviation signed the Rafale agreement with India in September 2016 and shortly afterwards in November, two Pakistanis pilots went to train in France ". Other analysts, citing reports, have made it clear that Pakistani exchange officers ("Pakistani exchange officers") are learning the secrets of the Rafale by flying these fighter jets on behalf of Qatar. They inform, of course, their aviation about how they should deal with them in air battles. And as things began to normalize between India and France, Qatar ordered an additional 12 Rafale in 2017, bringing their total to 36, in a total deal that reached 6.5 billion euros. And yes, it's a lot of money for Dassault, but it's clear that Indian journalists were right to shout. The Qatari Air Force has Pakistani pilots in its ranks who learn the secrets of the Rafale.
Greece was added to the list of countries that supplied Rafale, with the result that the value of the aircraft rises in the international market, since the Greek aviation is one of the best in the world and its selection adds credibility to the manufacturer Rafale. Greece, moreover, has been a customer of the French Dassault for almost half a century. The photo shows the French and the Dassault company as on the one hand we have countries like India and Greece, which give billions to acquire and maintain Mirage and Rafale from the backwardness of their citizens and on the other hand we have Pakistanis and Turks, who learn the strategic secrets of these aircraft from the Qataris. We are not talking about simply learning the secrets of the aircraft, the Indians at worst having lost their advantage in the air battle against Pakistan, but for something worse. We are talking about relocation of Rafale (4.5th generation) from Qatar to Turkey, with the result that the Turkish Air Force may be able to use them in a collision with Greece over the Aegean or the Mediterranean! Greece rushed to acquire Rafale and Turkey, with the tacit tolerance of the French, managed to have them first and even for free in its territory! What do French Defense Minister Florence Parly and French Ambassador to Athens Patrick Mezonav have to say about all this? Those who supported the purchase of Rafale in Greece are proving to be wrong as France is an dishonest supplier and partner. The Greek government has a huge responsibility, especially when we have all heard in the past about Pakistanis flying various types of Turkish aircraft in the Aegean, even though we had heard about what happened between India and Pakistan.
 

Saithan

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I am thinking that not having the planes, but knowing the secrets is a way to balance things.

Doesn’t change much, but gives a means or chance to counter. Thus avoiding wars.
 

Foulgrim

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I am thinking that not having the planes, but knowing the secrets is a way to balance things.

Doesn’t change much, but gives a means or chance to counter. Thus avoiding wars.
In this case, Turkey may not have the Rafale in its arsenal, but Qatar offered them to it, the 16 Rafale of Qatar is not a random choice as they "equalize" the Greek Rafale that will be acquired.
 

Foulgrim

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Which secrets could that be?
The response of the aircraft in terms of combat software, its technical characteristics but also its weapons (not theoretical but practical) and of course the detectable trace left on the radar + the quality level of maneuvering it has.
 

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In this case, Turkey may not have the Rafale in its arsenal, but Qatar offered them to it, the 16 Rafale of Qatar is not a random choice as they "equalize" the Greek Rafale that will be acquired.

It is unfortunate France elected for this w.r.t Qatar...but I guess the money on offer was just too big to forego.

If India did go for 126 or 200 sized commitment (the numbers floated in MRCA and MRCA+ last decade), it could have had counter-bargaining power entrenched in French state on this specific item....but 36 + "???" was simply not enough. One can look at French sales to our opponent through time to get basic idea of what is the needed commitment for exclusivity far away from any opponent reach.

Anyway, in India's case the relationship with France has evolved more to ecosystem level (rather than buy + operate level) for many critical technologies going forward.

Rafale acquisition ended up (for now) being a door opening + immediate squadron lethal req. on more of this, rather than a final wedded commitment of scale (which remains open depending on some factors such as this one).

This is how for example, LCA mk2 (MWF) is growing in stature as serious option (harnessing many of the rafale cross-related technologies from the larger growing symbiosis of French-India strategic partnership)

Impact of an opponent having access through Qatar is non-ideal but mitigated in India's case given what the niche for Rafale is within IAF and Indian RnD for now.

However it could be bigger issue for other airforces (like Greece) relative to the % level (w.r.t strength and duration of total AF power level) Rafales will occupy in the AF.

I haven't seen @Vergennes around for a while, I wonder if he has comment on this if he drops by.
 

Spook

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Diplomatic repercussions of using them in combat is too much for Qatar. The most important reason for deployment is training. Qatar needed large capable range to train with such aircraft. Turkey gets first hand knowledge on the aircraft.
 

Huelague

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The response of the aircraft in terms of combat software, its technical characteristics but also its weapons (not theoretical but practical) and of course the detectable trace left on the radar + the quality level of maneuvering it has.
Software/Codes is hard to shown. It’s more or less protected.
Which technical characteristics in specific?
The weapons they can carry is well known.
The RCS is also known, more or less. The maneuverability is maybe unknown.
 

Nilgiri

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Software/Codes is hard to shown. It’s more or less protected.
Which technical characteristics in specific?
The weapons they can carry is well known.
The RCS is also known, more or less. The maneuverability is maybe unknown.

All it really takes is commited aggressor training....i.e you need two distinct platforms (Qatar has rafale and earlier mirage 2000 itself....and could furthermore base other a/c from any allies in exercises), and you design the core BFM envelopes and then layer the tactical exercises above it. That will be iterative and based on aggressor training experience done already with other platforms.

It is similar in many other fields of military, like how frigates train versus submarines etc...you just need distinct platforms pitted against each other and of course last "kill" option turned off.

So here, it would be something like each and every pilot involved does any relevant conversion training and then run these aggressor exercises from both pitching and receiving end for each platform (and supporting a/c and assets like AWACS).

It wont give you too many details on the inner IP/tech details etc, but it will give you lot of scope on the practical experience you can migrate to own strategy if the pilot is a double-dipper (i.e serves or closely associated to QuAF and another AF....say PAF or TurAF).

Access to a platform guarantees lot of things you just cannot do otherwise. It is why Indian AF trains a lot with AF's that have F-16s for example.
 

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There is so such thing as a wonder weapon.

Greeks should have known that once they bought the Rafale that the Turks would try to find counter measures against it.

Warfare has always been like this there is always something to counter a particular weapon system.

Greece flies Mirage jets so it makes sense for them to buy Rafales. Greek Air force flew French Jets for decades along with American ones.
 

Foulgrim

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Software/Codes is hard to shown. It’s more or less protected.
Which technical characteristics in specific?
The weapons they can carry is well known.
The RCS is also known, more or less. The maneuverability is maybe unknown.
When the Turkish Air Force has direct internal access to Rafale, anything can happen. Unlocking weapons systems code is nothing new.
 

Philips

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Software/Codes is hard to shown. It’s more or less protected.
Which technical characteristics in specific?
The weapons they can carry is well known.
The RCS is also known, more or less. The maneuverability is maybe unknown.
Dynamic launch zones of weapons, radar detection ranges, radar tracking ranges, resistance to jamming, burn-through range of radar under jamming, instantaneous turn rate, sustained turn rate etc, etc. You get the gist.
 

mulj

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so, turks and pakistanies, made with one joint exercise whole greek and india air supremacy strategy garbage and full waste of money.
master stroke indeed and harsh reality check.
 

Combat-Master

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so, turks and pakistanies, made with one joint exercise whole greek and india air supremacy strategy garbage and full waste of money.
master stroke indeed and harsh reality check.

No. These are still advantages that the adversary has, Turkey gained some knowledge of the tactical advantages that the opposing side has. There have to be solutions developed from the knowledge gained, whether those solutions will be shared and made public is something we won't be aware of in the near future and well, further down the line Turkey will have its 5th gen fighter to which Greece will have to contend with getting their 5th gen fighter...
 

mulj

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No. These are still advantages that the adversary has, Turkey gained some knowledge of the tactical advantages that the opposing side has. There have to be solutions developed from the knowledge gained, whether those solutions will be shared and made public is something we won't be aware of in the near future and well, further down the line Turkey will have its 5th gen fighter to which Greece will have to contend with getting their 5th gen fighter...
i did not say that there is not advantages but meant advantages to be achieved by purchasing of those planes are significantly decreased and you have easier way to develope certain countermeasures to them regardless their technological advance on paper, for main intention that is basically canceling strategic advantage and and much harder achieving air superiority. for me that is enough but sure, i do not underestimate Raffales edge in terms of airframe capability. At best what greeks and indians achieved is enhanced operational options but at what costs, especially that cost is high for greeks, they fell in futile arms race with you all over again.
 

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so, turks and pakistanies, made with one joint exercise whole greek and india air supremacy strategy garbage and full waste of money.
master stroke indeed and harsh reality check.
There's a huge difference between qatari rafales and Indian rafales,matters nothing,everything is taken on to account while making a deal :)
@Nilgiri
 

mulj

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There's a huge difference between qatari rafales and Indian rafales,matters nothing,everything is taken on to account while making a deal :)
@Nilgiri
What is huge diffrence in terms of airframe, engine and electronics? You are saying like your Rafale is spacecraft comparing to the Qatari ones.
 

Spook

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I hope Qatar buys F35, I think US can't refuse even with Israeli pressure. Same reason with why France is quiet. How many countries can buy that many aircraft with single signature. Money talks.
 

Huelague

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When the Turkish Air Force has direct internal access to Rafale, anything can happen. Unlocking weapons systems code is nothing new.
We have F-16 too, and know F-35 from inside. It doesn’t stop you to buy these planes. No, I think it’s an excuse not to buy France jets.
 

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The biggest advantage of the Rafale is Meteor missiles which have much larger no escape zone than AMRAAMs. So if Rafales will keep distance they will win quote easily most of the engagements.
 

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