India India - China Relations

Paro

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Talk of PLA mutiny is probably too much, but there is lot of salient points brought up that we talked about before @SHOX @Paro
It's a long way if you expecting an internal breakdown will bring down CCP or Mr11. As long as they having a functional economy it's highly impossible. I would prefer external pressure and loss of face to bring down CCP but the way things are moving everyone is in a hurry to save their own butts back at home.
 
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Gary

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i knew it already, face saving is always the CCP priority, it will not be long until they're dragged in a situation where they're no longer able to do traditional safe facing means. talking about a war with the US which will result of the destruction of their Navy and their artificial sand dunes
 

Gary

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actually the best way to anger Beijing is a s simple as sending Ships for a FONOP in the South China Sea.
 

Zapper

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View attachment 480

India has withdrawn from a multilateral war game 'Kavkaz 2020' in Russia next month, citing China's participation. China, Pakistan and a number of other member nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are expected to participate in the strategic command-post exercise.

The exercise is scheduled to be held in the Astrakhan region in southern Russia from September 15 to 26.

India cannot be seen to be participating with China in an exercise when the two armies are involved in a standoff, sources said on Saturday.

The Indian and Chinese armies have been locked in a tense standoff in eastern Ladakh for over three-and-half-months despite multiple rounds of diplomatic and military talks. The tension escalated after 20 Indian soldiers were killed in the Galwan Valley clash in which Chinese military also suffered casualties.

In June, a tri-services contingent from India participated at the Victory Day Parade at the iconic Red Square in Moscow to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War. A contingent from China had also attended it.

Russia earlier said India and China should resolve the border dispute through talks and that a "constructive" relationship between the two countries was important for regional stability.

The SCO, seen as a counterweight to NATO, has emerged as one of the largest transregional international organisations which accounts for almost 44% of the world population stretching from the Arctic Ocean to the Indian Ocean and from the Pacific Ocean to the Baltic Sea. The aim of the SCO is to maintain peace, stability and security of the region. India became a member of SCO in 2017.

Kinda kiddish imo. While I agree with Nilgiri's comment, there's no reason to pull outta an exercise which we've been participating for years. Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak ... PA has always sent SSG for these exercises while we sent some regular unit. Though there's no real gain from these exercises, we should continue doing the same to get a better understanding of what our adversaries are while sending in our weakest
 

KKF 2.0

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I don't understand why India is a member of SCO. Why not initiate a competing organization with Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, Mongolia etc?

Joining SCO helped China in the long term by presenting her as a global dealmaker.

But what was the benefit for India in the first place?
 

Nilgiri

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I don't understand why India is a member of SCO. Why not initiate a competing organization with Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, Mongolia etc?

Joining SCO helped China in the long term by presenting her as a global dealmaker.

But what was the benefit for India in the first place?

Modi got it in his head that China (Xi) could be addressed with peace/cooperation to improve the relationship etc...and over time the border issue and other issues of contention solved like some kind of domino chain over time etc.

Joining SCO was natural extension of the summits Xi and Modi were having before it to try get new era of detente and progress etc.

SCO seemed a vanilla flavour extension of it (it really doesn't have much teeth in the end if you look at its charter, its one big MOU in the end).

But now that's all been put to rest for good now....everything is back to square one pragmatic reality now.
 

Nilgiri

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actually the best way to anger Beijing is a s simple as sending Ships for a FONOP in the South China Sea.

Yup....lo and behold:


Post-Galwan clash, Indian Navy quietly deployed warship in SCS.
 

KKF 2.0

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Modi got it in his head that China (Xi) could be addressed with peace/cooperation to improve the relationship etc...and over time the border issue and other issues of contention solved like some kind of domino chain over time etc.

Joining SCO was natural extension of the summits Xi and Modi were having before it to try get new era of detente and progress etc.

SCO seemed a vanilla flavour extension of it (it really doesn't have much teeth in the end if you look at its charter, its one big MOU in the end).

But now that's all been put to rest for good now....everything is back to square one pragmatic reality now.
I never understood this foreign policy concept of India. It's very unique and probably deeply rooted in Indian culture.

Sometimes India's foreign policy appears to be almost pacifistic. Ofc, the relationship with Pakistan was and still is the big exception but nevertheless, your previous handling of China is another piece of evidence of how different you were treating international issues compared to traditional Western countries.

Though, this has been changing since Modi took over the office. Ironically, India has never been as Western as she is nowadays thanks to Modi, a Hindu nationalist.
 

Gary

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Paro

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just figured this out, why not make a publicity out of it??
Indians in general suck at presentations. You won't come across a decent marketing brochure ever in India no matter how superior the product is compared to its competitor. Be it a commercial retail product, a tank, or a foreign policy slideshare. This is probably Indias biggest flaw after its red tape bureaucracy.
 

Gary

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Indians in general suck at presentations. You won't come across a decent marketing brochure ever in India no matter how superior the product is compared to its competitor. Be it a commercial retail product, a tank, or a foreign policy slideshare. This is probably Indias biggest flaw after its red tape bureaucracy.
bureaucracy is what slowing everything down, I see similarity between Indonesia, Pakistan and India when it comes to the culture of excessive bureaucracy.
 

Nilgiri

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Apparently more pics from the same area:


site1.jpg
site2.jpg


 

Maximilian Veers

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Full statement by the Western Theatre command

新华社成都8月31日电 西部战区新闻发言人张水利大校8月31日就中印边境局势发表谈话指出,8月31日,印军破坏前期双方多层级会谈会晤达成的共识,在班公湖南岸、热钦山口附近再次非法越线占控,公然挑衅,造成边境局势紧张。

印方此举严重侵犯中国领土主权,严重破坏中印边境地区和平稳定,出尔反尔、背信弃义,中方对此表示强烈反对。我们严正要求印方,立即撤回非法越线占控兵力,严格管控和约束一线部队,切实遵守承诺,避免事态进一步升级

----------------------------------

Xinhua News Agency, Chengdu, August 31. On August 31, the spokesperson of the Western Theater Command, Colonel Zhang Shuili, made a statement on the situation on the Sino-Indian border. The Hunan coast and the nearby Reqin mountain pass once again illegally crossed the line and took control, blatantly provoking and causing tension on the border.

This move by the Indian side seriously violated China's territorial sovereignty, severely undermined the peace and stability of the Sino-Indian border area, and rebelled against it. China strongly opposes this. We solemnly request the Indian side to immediately withdraw its illegally crossing troops, strictly control and restrain the front-line troops, earnestly abide by its commitments, and avoid further escalation of the situation.
 

Maximilian Veers

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A localized military engagement between India and China is imminent. Victory for PLA will mean that they will be encouraged to make further aggressive moves in the SCS. A Victory for India will mean, Xi will be humiliated and he will be forcefully removed from power soon.

Even a back to Status quo will be advantage India right now considering how India has managed to show the Chinese as the aggressive side.
 

suryakiran

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A localized military engagement between India and China is imminent. Victory for PLA will mean that they will be encouraged to make further aggressive moves in the SCS. A Victory for India will mean, Xi will be humiliated and he will be forcefully removed from power soon.

Even a back to Status quo will be advantage India right now considering how India has managed to show the Chinese as the aggressive side.

Chinese victory : All out war, we are not withdrawing. And this WILL damage both the economies and push back China by another 15 years. India by another 10 years. Why India lesser? Because the western economies will pump up the Indian economy to take one China. Formation of a formalised Quad, thereby restricting any future moves of the Chinese State. Indian policy will shift to first 'fixing' Pakistan before focusing complete attention on China.

Indian Victory : If this happens, it goes beyond China. It means, Pakistan will be on notice. AND smaller nations will rally behind the US. And will result in formation of an Asian NATO. Much bigger than the Quad. Russia will get aggressive in their theaters wrt China.

Status Quo : Indian psychological victory. Smaller nations will rally behind the Americans.

Diplomatic Victory : Both sides withdraw and agree to go back to de facto recognised claim lines before the incident. Pakistan will be on notice. Smaller countries may rally behind the US, but will need coercion by the Americans.

Till date, the eastern border for China which has been peaceful and without incident will be an active border. The Galwan incursion was a faux passe by the Chinese state, not expecting retaliation. This has now converted the only border, which though not demarcated has not resulted in any investments by the Chinese side to actively protect or aggressively patrol, into an enemy border facing the largest standing armies amongst its neighbours.

I had said this before in another forum, the current crop of diplomats and bureacrats in the Indian system are no longer the Nehruvian non aligned ideologues. The senior level diplomats have seen the crushing of the Khalistanis and the terrorism of the jihadis of Kashmir. They have been brought up by using the might of the Indian State. They have no qualms using force unlike the earlier Gandhian philosophies of old. They have also seen the growth of the Indian economy and the development of our capabilities. This shows a gross misunderstanding of the Indian polity changes by the Chinese.

Whatever happens, Hindi-Chini bhai bhai is officially dead, cremated and dispersed in the wind.
 
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TR_123456

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Chinese victory : All out war, we are not withdrawing. And this WILL damage both the economies and push back China by another 15 years. India by another 10 years. Why India lesser? Because the western economies will pump up the Indian economy to take one China. Formation of a formalised Quad, thereby restricting any future moves of the Chinese State. Indian policy will shift to first 'fixing' Pakistan before focusing complete attention on China.

Indian Victory : If this happens, it goes beyond China. It means, Pakistan will be on notice. AND smaller nations will rally behind the US. And will result in formation of an Asian NATO. Much bigger than the Quad. Russia will get aggressive in their theaters wrt China.

Status Quo : Indian psychological victory. Smaller nations will rally behind the Americans.

Diplomatic Victory : Both sides withdraw and agree to go back to de facto recognised claim lines before the incident. Pakistan will be on notice. Smaller countries may rally behind the US, but will need coercion by the Americans.

Till date, the eastern border for China has been peaceful and without incident till February will be an active border. The Galwan incursion was a faux passe by the Chinese state, not expecting retaliation. This has now converted the only border, which though not demarcated has not resulted in any investments by the Chinese side to actively protect or aggressively patrol into an enemy border, facing the largest standing armies amongst its neighbours.

I had said this before in another forum, the current crop of diplomats and bureacrats in the Indian system are no longer the Nehruvian non aligned ideologues. The senior level diplomats have seen the crushing of the Khalistanis and the terrorism of the jihadis of Kashmir. They have been brought up by using the might of the Indian State. They have no qualms using force unlike the earlier Gandhian philosophies of old. They have also seen the growth of the Indian economy and the development of our capabilities. This shows a gross misunderstanding of the Indian polity changes by the Chinese.

Whatever happens, Hindi-Chini bhai bhai is officially dead, cremated and dispersed in the wind.
What do you personally think will happen?
 
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