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Maximilian Veers

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What do you personally think will happen?

There will be a localized military conflict IN Ladakh and possibly areas around Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh(India's NE). It's unlikely to go to full-scale war right now. I really doubt the Chinese are looking for a prolonged conflict in their far west regions.
 

Paro

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Diplomatic Victory means for both or one side?
China probably geta s face-saving exit while India brags about dislodging the Chinese. You see from November the area becomes inhospitable. Indians are a little bit more prepared than the Chinese up there. It's not the snow that you'll have to deal with its the frost. Chinese have to dislodge or face casualties due to weather, no amount of infrastructure can keep them put up there until they decide to burrow themselves in caves and hibernate for 3 months hugging each other. Especially the heights.
EDIT -
Then we'll need to consider the troop composition on the two sides. As you know 69% of the infantry is conscript. Most of them are sent to the western theater command (according to CIA annual review) who don't see much action in their 3 years of service and account for the numbers. Their training goes something like this, 3 months of basic training (march pass rifle assembly and saluting the party flag) >> 16 days of party indoctrination >> followed by 7 months of theater specific courses.
They wouldn't be posted in a single terrain like Ladakh for more than 3 years so getting acclimated is one thing but actually planning on fighting a prolonged war and staying put in that terrain is another now compared to Indian infantry who is recruited from the tribes living it the inhospitable region for generations. That's the reason you saw PLA rotating troops that often and moving more in the last few months of the standoff.

The only advantage they really have in the region is their rocket force and Artillery spread out and sitting comfortably on the plateau while IA has a clear terrain disadvantage employing both of them in the mountains.
 
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Saithan

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Perhaps an alternative option is available. I’m thinking that China might beef up support to Jamu. Seeing as how that region is volatile.
 
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Maximilian Veers

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1598895775768.png


This is the region captured as per PLA claims. Note that this is nearly 3.5 - 4.0km within Chinese territory and have not been under Indian control since 1962.
 

Paro

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View attachment 638

This is the region captured as per PLA claims. Note that this is nearly 3.5 - 4.0km within Chinese territory and have not been under Indian control since 1962.
Clashes seem to have happened in multiple places. There is a version going around that the Chinese were dislodged from the F4 peak also along with Reqin. And there is something about the sugar sector in Kinnaur HP.
But the area btw F5 to F8 still seems to be occupied and I think it's lost forever. F4 peak was important as it was overlooking the road DBO was building and sitting on top of F4 would give a line of sight till F8 so I think IA would be satisfied with it, But we need to wait for the Chinese retaliatory move in the coming weeks.
 
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Maximilian Veers

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Clashes seem to have happened in multiple places. There is a version going around that the Chinese were dislodged from the F4 peak also along with Reqin. And there is something about the sugar sector in Kinnaur HP.
But the area btw F5 to F8 still seems to be occupied and I think it's lost forever. F4 peak was important as it was overlooking the road DBO was building and sitting on top of F4 would give a line of sight till F8 so I think IA would be satisfied with it, But we need to wait for the Chinese retaliatory move in the coming weeks.

If there is a localized military conflict. Then there is no certainty of what territory is lost or gained. India has been consistent that the Chinese will have to withdraw till finger 8, Neither the IA nor the govt. is willing to budge from that position.
 

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Chinese PLA’s Western Theatre Command issues statement accusing Indian Army of violating consensus reached at multi-level talks between the countries.
SNEHESH ALEX PHILIP 31 August, 2020 9:26 pm IST


Representational image of military equipment in Ladakh | Photo: ANI
Representational image of military equipment in Ladakh | Photo: ANI
Text Size: A- A+
New Delhi: Specialised elements of the Indian Army outflanked China’s People’s Liberation Army on the night of 29 August, dominating at least four locations claimed by both sides near the southern bank of the Pangong Tso.
The action drew a sharp verbal reaction from the Chinese military, with the Western Theatre Command of the PLA, which oversees borders with India, issuing a statement accusing the Indian Army of violating the consensus reached at the multi-level talks between both countries.

The remarks by the PLA came hours after the Indian Army issued a statement, saying that on the night of 29 August, PLA troops violated the agreed consensus, and carried out provocative military movements to change the status quo.

It said Indian troops pre-empted PLA activity on the southern bank of Pangong Tso, undertook measures to strengthen positions and “thwart Chinese intentions to unilaterally change facts on ground”, adding that the Indian Army is committed to maintaining peace and tranquillity through dialogue, but is also equally determined to protect its territorial integrity.

Also read: Why southern bank of Pangong Tso is the new flashpoint in India-China stand-off

Control of heights

Elaborating on the Army statement, a source said after picking up intelligence about Chinese movement at around 11 pm Saturday to “capture fresh territory in the cover of darkness”, Indian troops moved in faster and occupied the heights that are claimed by both countries.

“The Chinese had planned to capture these heights, which would have given them an advantage. In such terrain, anyone who has the heights holds the upper hand,” the source said.

However, the PLA denied any such move, saying Chinese troops are taking necessary measures in response to Indian troops’ “provocations”, and will closely follow the situation and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, peace and stability at the border.

Government sources said the Army deployed troops in certain key areas, including Rezang La, and carried out reconnaissance of other important heights in the vicinity over the past several days.

With heights being dominated now, the Army has also moved in additional troops, who have been brought in from the reserve columns that were deployed in eastern Ladakh after the stand-off with China began in early May.

Sources said domination of hilltops and passes in areas claimed by both sides, but where the Indians had the upper hand, was always part of the “military options” that Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat had mentioned. However, there was no physical clash between the two sides, the sources said.

Sources explained India’s move as a “race to the passes”, saying whoever gets to the heights first in a hilly terrain dominates the area. They said the demand within a certain section in the defence and security establishment was that India should dominate heights and passes in locations where it can, in order to counter China’s aggression in other areas.

Even though formal talks between the two sides have not made any headway since July, China continues with its massive military build-up along the LAC, which includes construction of new heliports and surface-to-air missiles sites.

 
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Maximilian Veers

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BELOW IS SPECULATION BASED PURELY ON OSINT and MSM news outlets. USE SALT AS REQUIRED

Based on the information we have from local OSINT and defense journalists. Clashes seem to have happened in more than once place. Three locations have repeatedly come up form time to time on different news outlets and on OSINT channels. That being 3 strategic features of HELMET top, BLACK top, and Reqin.

Untitled (1).jpg



Judging from the map and the geography. All three of these features of the highest elevation in that area. Seems to have considerable LOS into the surrounding areas. Holding on to Helmet, Black Top and Reqin makes the Chinese position(s) around the Spanggur gap untenable.

Blacktop is in much higher elevation and will have direct LOS to the Spangur Lake.

Here is the terrain map mode from google maps. Added points of interest that I know of.

Untitled.jpg



EDIT : Vishnu Som, local defence journalist claiming the same now.

 
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Saithan

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1598953799435.png


I assume that India and China don't want to divide the disputed area, but can anyone shed light on how the area became disputed ?

I know that some of Jamu region has been "rented" to China by Pakistan, but There are almost no definite borderline between China and Jamu/Kashmir.

Is it safe to assume that China expanded during a time where India and Pakistan wasn't looking ?
 

Nilgiri

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I assume that India and China don't want to divide the disputed area, but can anyone shed light on how the area became disputed ?

I know that some of Jamu region has been "rented" to China by Pakistan, but There are almost no definite borderline between China and Jamu/Kashmir.

Is it safe to assume that China expanded during a time where India and Pakistan wasn't looking ?

This (larger) area occupied by PRC is basically what they took in the 1962 border war largely due to unpreparedness of India to mount a significant enough defense of the claim it had politically chosen to assert at the time (the political dispensation of the time both underestimated and overestimated some things regarding Mao's China).

The new area of control specifics (i.e the exact demarcation of who controls what) is unresolved (till a final agreement or resolution comes) as things were left deliberately vague and thus control effectively becomes (w.r.t Line of Actual control) effectively what you can assert in these sections...and China has been notably aggressive in the last couple decades about how it does this (prompting counter over time by India in the area too).

It is clear to India now that China never negotiated anything with good faith and the process to have a peaceable status quo reference to then work out a long term border solution (started in 1990s after cold war ended and relations were starting to warm) was simply a deceptive time-buying by CCP in the end.

Any argument of whatever that "90s" era of the CCP intended compared to this era is largely irrelevant now anyway....we are back to square one of 60s and 70s era...except India is more aware, attuned and responsive to CCP shenanigans....and has developed its capability for it.
 

Saiyan0321

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BELOW IS SPECULATION BASED PURELY ON OSINT and MSM news outlets. USE SALT AS REQUIRED

Based on the information we have from local OSINT and defense journalists. Clashes seem to have happened in more than once place. Three locations have repeatedly come up form time to time on different news outlets and on OSINT channels. That being 3 strategic features of HELMET top, BLACK top, and Reqin.

View attachment 648


Judging from the map and the geography. All three of these features of the highest elevation in that area. Seems to have considerable LOS into the surrounding areas. Holding on to Helmet, Black Top and Reqin makes the Chinese position(s) around the Spanggur gap untenable.

Blacktop is in much higher elevation and will have direct LOS to the Spangur Lake.

Here is the terrain map mode from google maps. Added points of interest that I know of.

View attachment 649


EDIT : Vishnu Som, local defence journalist claiming the same now.


Lolzz @Joe Shearer remember our conversation on page 4 when that conflict started and how eventually they will demarcate the border by themselves through extensive militarization and Chinese encroachment has now reached limit.
 

Saiyan0321

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It is clear to India now that China never negotiated anything with good faith and the process to have a peaceable status quo reference to then work out a long term border solution (started in 1990s after cold war ended and relations were starting to warm) was simply a deceptive time-buying by CCP in the end


LOLZZZZ remember this post at the end of june @Joe Shearer i made to you

Another thing, i sought opinion of someone wiser than myself especially when it comes to analysis about the history of Indo-china conflict.

The first thing she asks me is about 1962 and i tell her about it and next she asks me about 1967 and i tell her that china lost and post that there was no conflict since both sides slowly agreed that the area should be demilitarized.

She stated that India was a fool to trust China due to 2 major factors

1. That in 1962 India witnessed that China was aggressive with its claims thus will not shy away from military conflict that could result in casualties in the thousands.

2. In 1967 India showcased that India is willing to fight for what it perceives is its own and will not stand for Chinese imperialism which sent a point to china that not all conflicts will be winnable with India.



Post these two major events India shouldnt have agreed to such demilitarization no matter what, even if they had kept it to minimum scale since China had seen that capturing territory was not easy. She highlighted that China was malicious from the start even by that agreement since it would easier to encroach on a demilitarized border slowly rather than attack with losses and even lose a war and gain nothing and lead to a secure frontier, due to which since then China has encroached as much territory as it could that now it is basically face to face with Indian control lines whereas India is struggling to create a military presence on the buffer zones that it has always laid claim to and more and more strategic areas are falling to Chinese control.

She also highlighted that The very essence of this Chinese strategy is based on malafide intent, which sees them build tents through patrol platoons, bring in reinforcement if the coast is clear and then build permanent structures and since India has little to no armament and relies on talks, there is no way they would leave fortified structures and if they get caught then they immediately retreat and offer peace talks through CO meets and retreat back only to try slowly again and again and considering its a no man's land, they cant secure everywhere.

What do you think about this? We often talk about how no bullet was fired for 40 years but what if that is the Chinese game from the start and remember post the 100 year humiliation period, the Chinese are extremely paranoid and meticulous in their approach.
 

Saiyan0321

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The way the incident is looking is frankly like this, not going to say i know much nor going to say that the Sino-India conflict concerns me like it concerns some of my PDF brethren however this is what i have been able to piece together. So give me some leeway

So the situation happened on the edge of the Indian side of the LAC where India holds occupation. The LAC can be divided into three major areas.

The Chinese Occupation

The No man Land that was basically 20 km away and once upon a time spanned thousands of Kmsq

and the Indian Occupation

By Occupation i mean occupation as in having in your hand. Like i occupy my house.

The Chinese have been near the Indian positions for some time as they have encroached more and more of the No Man land which again speaks volumes of how much the situation has deteriorated that the Chinese are at positions where they could mount offensives on the Indian sides. The encroachment that have done is staggering and it was highlighted before that China had gained thousands of kilometres of Indian land however what it meant was that China has encroached on the no man land which is claimed by India.

About a few days ago India received intelligence that Chinese may try to change the prevailing situation by taking a the heights of Black Top and Helmet Top. I dont think Reqin was the objective of the chinese as the pass was largely undefended and there was little to no movements over there despite the fact that China had built communication towers near the Reqin pass despite the pass not being personally occupied. Not sure but in those times, the areas near the pass were also encroached.

Now couple of days ago, China, in a bid to capture more strategic ground started the trek towards the two hills ( their strategic whether existed before or not, exists now due to the conflict) and the first trek was done at Helmet top. India, not acting like Stalin before operation Barbarossa, actually listened to its intelligence report and immediately countered and took over the Black top which the Chinese saw come under Indian occupation, retreated back. India, in a bid to make sure that the Chinese wont take anymore strategic areas and to negate the Helmet Top Chinese Occupation, captured the Reqin Pass which pissed them off alot and i think this is the situation. I could be wrong.

The Problem is that China has encroached so much of the No Man Land that India is forced to defend each and every inch of its actual occupation territory and launch where it can operations to capture strategic passes or hills.

All in all as both sides continue the conflict, the chances of the LAC becoming like the LOC, a militarized demarcation where even a half a million man assault would fall flat.

This situation is not good for us as well and i told that to joe when the first conflict happened.
 

Joe Shearer

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Indian infantry who is recruited from the tribes living it the inhospitable region for generations.

You might like to inspect the ORBAT for XIV Corps, including recent reinforcements, and check the validity of that assumption.
 

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