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Jagdflieger

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Yeah, but don't forget that Nike move to VN cos they accuse CN using Slave labour in Xinjiang, not mentioning Nike can't avoid 25% tariff if building a factory there.
From what I know (maybe I am wrong) - Nike and others had lost considerable market-shares in China already before Dumb Trump's trade war.
The first time I recall that NIKE and other's wanted to move to Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, etc. was starting at around 2012 onward..

The Xinjiang issue merely provided a "marketing argument" and thus obtaining subsidies (tax-cuts) by the US government in order to relocate to alternative markets hoping to regain lost market-share in China. Xinjiang is e.g. famous for it's agricultural goods - which have been sold in China and exported outside since decades from the same farms and companies - that are now suddenly all supposed to employ slave workers......... :rolleyes:
 

Viva_vietnamm

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From what I know (maybe I am wrong) - Nike and others had lost considerable market-shares in China already before Dumb Trump's trade war.
The first time I recall that NIKE and other's wanted to move to Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, etc. was starting at around 2012 onward..

The Xinjiang issue merely provided a "marketing argument" and thus obtaining subsidies (tax-cuts) by the US government in order to relocate to alternative markets hoping to regain lost market-share in China. Xinjiang is e.g. famous for it's agricultural goods - which have been sold in China and exported outside since decades from the same farms and companies - that are now suddenly all supposed to employ slave workers......... :rolleyes:
Im not sure if Nike had lost considerable market-shares in China, but Nike also don't have a big market-shares in VN. Nike produces shoes in Vietnam mainly for export to EU-US. So, it prove that building Nike shoes factories in VN for export is much better choice than in Xinjiang when they can avoid 25% tariff and political problem like "slave labour"
 

Jagdflieger

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Im not sure if Nike had lost considerable market-shares in China, but Nike also don't have a big market-shares in VN. Nike produces shoes in Vietnam mainly for export to EU-US. So, it prove that building Nike shoes factories in VN for export is much better choice than in Xinjiang when they can avoid 25% tariff and political problem like "slave labour"
No, China is not interested in an industry that produces shoes or textiles - that is sorry (cheap skate industry) so it is not subsidizing or incentivizing this kind of industry owned by Foreign investors. Naturally those companies are going to Bangladesh, Vietnam etc. Whilst Chinese shoe and textile manufacturers if they invest in e.g. Xinjiang or Sichuan are being subsidized.

And if a company such as NIKE - publicly participates in Uighur slander activities - you can be sure that they receive special attention by the tax, labor and environmental agencies in China then forcing e.g. Nike to adhere 100% towards applicable laws - thus bringing those factories to a complete still stand. Because many foreign investors (especially the cheap skate manufactures) are known to ignore the existing laws.

So if it gets tough on tough it isn't about paying 25% cooperate tax - but facing a still-stand in manufacturing = bankruptcy. And the Chinese shoe and textile manufacturers are simply taking over their market-share and employees.
 

Viva_vietnamm

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No, China is not interested in an industry that produces shoes or textiles - that is sorry (cheap skate industry) so it is not subsidizing or incentivizing this kind of industry owned by Foreign investors. Naturally those companies are going to Bangladesh, Vietnam etc. Whilst Chinese shoe and textile manufacturers if they invest in e.g. Xinjiang or Sichuan are being subsidized.

And if a company such as NIKE - publicly participates in Uighur slander activities - you can be sure that they receive special attention by the tax, labor and environmental agencies in China then forcing e.g. Nike to adhere 100% towards applicable laws - thus bringing those factories to a complete still stand. Because many foreign investors (especially the cheap skate manufactures) are known to ignore the existing laws.

So if it gets tough on tough it isn't about paying 25% cooperate tax - but facing a still-stand in manufacturing = bankruptcy. And the Chinese shoe and textile manufacturers are simply taking over their market-share and employees.
Actually , CN local govt want shoes or textiles factories to keep staying in CN, so they won't lose the Tax revenue (as I know, many CN local gotv are under big debt now due to the collapse of real estate industry ). Thats why CN let Myanmar workers to come to CN and u only need to pay abt 200-300 usd/month for them....but those factories can not suvive under 25% tariff plus 'slave labours' problem.

And of course not only shoes or textiles industry are leaving CN, but also electronic industry (Ipad, Xiaomi) and high tech industry (chip plants) also quiting CN when US threaten to slap more santion .

btw, can CN make 25nm chips without chipmaking gear from ASML ?? Some CN posters say Yes, but I don't see CN own chip making machines.

--------------------

US Wants Dutch Supplier to Stop Selling Chipmaking Gear to China​


 

Jagdflieger

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Actually , CN local govt want shoes or textiles factories to keep staying in CN, so they won't lose the Tax revenue (as I know, many CN local gotv are under big debt now due to the collapse of real estate industry ).
I think you really need to visit China - the local governments aren't in debt or bankrupt due to the property market (this is actually were they gain most of their revenue) but due to excessive infrastructure investments. And in the past (before 2016) due to heavy corruption involved in these projects.
Thats why CN let Myanmar workers to come to CN and u only need to pay abt 200-300 usd/month for them....but those factories can not suvive under 25% tariff plus 'slave labours' problem.
I guess you are not familiar with Chinese companies actual financial practices - and for US$200-300/month they can get Chinese workers in e.g. Yunnan province.
So I think you maybe should assume US$50-100/month for Myanmar workers. which would constitute illegal practice by the respective employer. So maybe some noodle, or bicycle repair-shop has these "illegal" workers.
btw, can CN make 25nm chips without chipmaking gear from ASML ?? Some CN posters say Yes, but I don't see CN own chip making machines.
From what I know, China can and is producing it's own chips down to 5nm - and the process to increase these productions incl. chip making gear producers, plus getting into the absolute high-tech nm range is underway. Most likely China will be absolutely self-sufficient by 2026-2030.

BTW, aside from Covid related issues - I have not heard of Chinese car customers not getting their vehicles in time due to chip shortages - unlike e.g. the German car market.
 
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xizhimen

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No, China is not interested in an industry that produces shoes or textiles - that is sorry (cheap skate industry) so it is not subsidizing or incentivizing this kind of industry owned by Foreign investors. Naturally those companies are going to Bangladesh, Vietnam etc. Whilst Chinese shoe and textile manufacturers if they invest in e.g. Xinjiang or Sichuan are being subsidized.

And if a company such as NIKE - publicly participates in Uighur slander activities - you can be sure that they receive special attention by the tax, labor and environmental agencies in China then forcing e.g. Nike to adhere 100% towards applicable laws - thus bringing those factories to a complete still stand. Because many foreign investors (especially the cheap skate manufactures) are known to ignore the existing laws.

So if it gets tough on tough it isn't about paying 25% cooperate tax - but facing a still-stand in manufacturing = bankruptcy. And the Chinese shoe and textile manufacturers are simply taking over their market-share and employees.
Shoes and textiles account for negligible share of China's overall exports, they had long been relocated out of China to the countries like Bangledash

How-Much-1200px.jpg
 

xizhimen

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Not only cheap industry is moving out of CN but also high tech industry
High tech industries, espciallly futuristic new industries are still flourishing in China, besides, the west doesn't have much high tech industries to start with.

high tech products.png
 

Viva_vietnamm

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I think you really need to visit China - the local governments aren't in debt or bankrupt due to the property market (this is actually were they gain most of their revenue) but due to excessive infrastructure investments. And in the past (before 2016) due to heavy corruption involved in these projects.

I guess you are not familiar with Chinese companies actual financial practices - and for US$200-300/month they can get Chinese workers in e.g. Yunnan province.
So I think you maybe should assume US$50-100/month for Myanmar workers. which would constitute illegal practice by the respective employer. So maybe some noodle, or bicycle repair-shop has these "illegal" workers.
Thanks for your information, so the salary for workers in Yunnan is the same with VN workers in 3rd tier cities. Bad news for Yunnan workers when shoes or textiles factories keep leaving CN due to trade war, so many of them will become jobless or at least have to find lower salary jobs .

Actually I see many poor Cnese living in slum or old houses in Tik tok, just don't know why CN posters keep saying "CN is rich, CN is powerful, all CNese living in nice houses and all have good lives " :LOL:

From what I know, China can and is producing it's own chips down to 5nm - and the process to increase these productions incl. chip making gear producers, plus getting into the absolute high-tech nm range is underway. Most likely China will be absolutely self-sufficient by 2026-2030.

BTW, aside from Covid related issues - I have not heard of Chinese car customers not getting their vehicles in time due to chip shortages - unlike e.g. the German car market.
I think CN still has to buy DUV/ EUV machines from ASML to make 28nm chips. CN doesn't have chip shortage problem cos CN still can buy 28nm chip making machine from ASML.


------------------------
In that area, power is concentrated in the hands of a few: ASML, a company from the Netherlands, is the only company in the world capable of making a machine that chip manufacturers need to make the most advanced chips.

So where is China now?​

China may be ahead of its peers in some areas of chip development, but it will find difficulty catching up with cutting-edge technology, at least in the short term.

For example, SMIC can manufacture 28-nanometer chips on a large scale. These could be used in TVs or even autos — an area China could do well in, particularly with the current shortage of semiconductors.

 

xizhimen

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CN doesn't have its own chip making machine to make chip for your "high tech" products . :cool:
High tech doesn't only mean chips and China reported has chip making machines and China's chip progress and development beats the rest of the world.
 

Viva_vietnamm

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High tech doesn't only mean chips and China reported has chip making machines and China's chip progress and development beats the rest of the world.
China reported has chip making machines.....:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: , we don't even see CN has its own part suppliers for the machine yet, let alone a completed chip making machine 🤣
 

xizhimen

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China reported has chip making machines.....:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: , we don't even see CN has its own part suppliers for the machine yet, let alone a completed chip making machine 🤣

Many reports on the dvelopment, lithography machines depend on the global supply chain to make, not only China, the fact is no countries now can independently make lithography machines without key imported components from other countries and China is trying to change it and soon become the first country to succeed in making those machines totally on her own supply chain.
 

Viva_vietnamm

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This Chinese jobs crisis could be its worst​

June 20, 2022
By Yawen Chen
A student stands in front of the statue of Chinese leader Mao Zedong after her graduation ceremony at Fudan University in Shanghai

A student stands in front of the statue of Chinese leader Mao Zedong after her graduation ceremony at Fudan University in Shanghai, China June 23, 2017. REUTERS/Aly Song

HONG KONG, June 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The unemployment crisis of 2022 could be the worst since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Nearly one-fifth of those between 16 and 24 years old are not working – a new record – while surveys suggest national joblessness is approaching levels not seen since global trade crashed in 2008.

China’s survey-based urban jobless data, a series considered more credible than the previous official method, has hovered below 6% throughout the pandemic. Private measurements, however, which are better at counting the country’s 292 million migrant workers, paint a far uglier picture. In early 2020, Zhongtai Securities economist Li Xunlei's team reported over 70 million jobs had disappeared, before he deleted the report and was removed from his leadership post. Since then, few have issued updated estimates. Of the 11 million people graduating from college this month, however, only 15% had secured jobs by mid-April, per recruiting services provider Zhaopin.com.

The problem is concentrated in the services sector, which employs roughly half the workforce. Many of them are low-end jobs at restaurants, cinemas and shopping malls. A survey of 165,000 small and medium companies in March found respondents had enough cash flow to stay afloat for just 2.4 months, the lowest share on record. Poorly timed regulatory crackdowns on technology, education and real estate sectors – many of them major employers – have aggravated the situation.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

With cities that contribute roughly half of output under some form of lockdown as of April, some economists revised their annual growth projections down to 3%, far below the official target of 5.5%. That would imply 5 million fewer new jobs, pushing the official unemployment rate up nearly one percentage point, according to Cinda Securities analysts.

EMPTY TOOLBOX​

In the Mao Zedong era, which ended in the mid-1970s, almost everyone able to work had a job in the command economy: one reason the safety net for the unemployed remains underdeveloped, with limited coverage and low payouts. Another is that subsequent market reforms allowed officials to treat temporary spikes in joblessness with raw growth.

In the late 1990s, for example, Premier Zhu Rongji prepared China for entry to the World Trade Organization by slashing employment in the public sector. In his first four years, headcounts at state firms shrank by 30%, and 34 million laid off employees hit the streets. But by freeing up the private sector, Zhu unleashed a period of double-digit export-led expansion that quickly absorbed the surplus workers.
By 2008, when the global financial crisis hit, the productivity gains from opening up to world trade had started to wear off, and the collapse of overseas demand hit manufacturers hard. The unemployment rate reached 9.4%, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. However, Beijing resolved the issue with monetary and fiscal firepower, slashing interest rates and pouring funds into infrastructure projects.

These methods won’t cut it this time around. China cannot join the WTO twice, and its demographic dividend of young, cheap labour has been exhausted; it now has to worry about underfunded pensions for an aging population. Returns on additional infrastructure investment are naturally lower given how much has already been built. The bad debts that resulted from the 2008 stimulus have yet to be fully digested, constraining monetary easing. Fiscal spending looks exhausted too. The government vastly overestimated incoming revenue for this year’s budget, Nomura analysts noted, leaving a staggering funding gap of 6 trillion yuan ($897 billion).

The export sector that helped keep the economy afloat during the pandemic won’t hold up if partners lurch into recession. It has little need for laid-off English tutors or app developers regardless. The vocational training system could help, but is in shambles.
The central government will surely pitch in at the margins, but it can’t hire everyone. The military might absorb some college graduates to its non-commissioned officer class. State-owned enterprises and government-affiliated institutions, which already employ up to 16% of the labor force per World Bank estimates, can add jobs too. Yunnan province announced in June that it will provide an annual subsidy of 50,000 yuan ($7,493) to college graduates who take “grassroot jobs” in education, medicine, farming and poverty alleviation. Suffice it to say these will not produce the disposable incomes companies like Starbucks (SBUX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) are looking for.

Saddling already bloated SOEs with excess headcount is not fiscally sustainable and deters private business investment. Civil servant jobs are already scarce. In 2021, there were 2 million applicants for only 30,000 positions.
Uncontained, the present crisis risks a vicious cycle in which falling real wages further deter domestic consumption, and therefore investment and job creation. It’s a scenario reminiscent of the stagnation that plagued Japan for decades. That would in turn further burden already strained government finances. At the end lies the Chinese Communist Party’s worst nightmare: social instability among legions of out-of-work people, and not enough jobs to go around.
The services sector that hires over half China's workforce is in deep trouble

The services sector that hires over half China's workforce is in deep trouble
S
China’s jobless rate among 16- to 24-year-olds, a group that includes college graduates, climbed to 18.4% in May after hitting a record 18.2% in April, official data showed on June 15. The national survey-based urban unemployment rate reached 5.9% in May.

 

xizhimen

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This Chinese jobs crisis could be its worst​

June 20, 2022
By Yawen Chen
A student stands in front of the statue of Chinese leader Mao Zedong after her graduation ceremony at Fudan University in Shanghai

A student stands in front of the statue of Chinese leader Mao Zedong after her graduation ceremony at Fudan University in Shanghai, China June 23, 2017. REUTERS/Aly Song

HONG KONG, June 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The unemployment crisis of 2022 could be the worst since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Nearly one-fifth of those between 16 and 24 years old are not working – a new record – while surveys suggest national joblessness is approaching levels not seen since global trade crashed in 2008.

China’s survey-based urban jobless data, a series considered more credible than the previous official method, has hovered below 6% throughout the pandemic. Private measurements, however, which are better at counting the country’s 292 million migrant workers, paint a far uglier picture. In early 2020, Zhongtai Securities economist Li Xunlei's team reported over 70 million jobs had disappeared, before he deleted the report and was removed from his leadership post. Since then, few have issued updated estimates. Of the 11 million people graduating from college this month, however, only 15% had secured jobs by mid-April, per recruiting services provider Zhaopin.com.

The problem is concentrated in the services sector, which employs roughly half the workforce. Many of them are low-end jobs at restaurants, cinemas and shopping malls. A survey of 165,000 small and medium companies in March found respondents had enough cash flow to stay afloat for just 2.4 months, the lowest share on record. Poorly timed regulatory crackdowns on technology, education and real estate sectors – many of them major employers – have aggravated the situation.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

With cities that contribute roughly half of output under some form of lockdown as of April, some economists revised their annual growth projections down to 3%, far below the official target of 5.5%. That would imply 5 million fewer new jobs, pushing the official unemployment rate up nearly one percentage point, according to Cinda Securities analysts.

EMPTY TOOLBOX​

In the Mao Zedong era, which ended in the mid-1970s, almost everyone able to work had a job in the command economy: one reason the safety net for the unemployed remains underdeveloped, with limited coverage and low payouts. Another is that subsequent market reforms allowed officials to treat temporary spikes in joblessness with raw growth.

In the late 1990s, for example, Premier Zhu Rongji prepared China for entry to the World Trade Organization by slashing employment in the public sector. In his first four years, headcounts at state firms shrank by 30%, and 34 million laid off employees hit the streets. But by freeing up the private sector, Zhu unleashed a period of double-digit export-led expansion that quickly absorbed the surplus workers.
By 2008, when the global financial crisis hit, the productivity gains from opening up to world trade had started to wear off, and the collapse of overseas demand hit manufacturers hard. The unemployment rate reached 9.4%, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. However, Beijing resolved the issue with monetary and fiscal firepower, slashing interest rates and pouring funds into infrastructure projects.

These methods won’t cut it this time around. China cannot join the WTO twice, and its demographic dividend of young, cheap labour has been exhausted; it now has to worry about underfunded pensions for an aging population. Returns on additional infrastructure investment are naturally lower given how much has already been built. The bad debts that resulted from the 2008 stimulus have yet to be fully digested, constraining monetary easing. Fiscal spending looks exhausted too. The government vastly overestimated incoming revenue for this year’s budget, Nomura analysts noted, leaving a staggering funding gap of 6 trillion yuan ($897 billion).

The export sector that helped keep the economy afloat during the pandemic won’t hold up if partners lurch into recession. It has little need for laid-off English tutors or app developers regardless. The vocational training system could help, but is in shambles.
The central government will surely pitch in at the margins, but it can’t hire everyone. The military might absorb some college graduates to its non-commissioned officer class. State-owned enterprises and government-affiliated institutions, which already employ up to 16% of the labor force per World Bank estimates, can add jobs too. Yunnan province announced in June that it will provide an annual subsidy of 50,000 yuan ($7,493) to college graduates who take “grassroot jobs” in education, medicine, farming and poverty alleviation. Suffice it to say these will not produce the disposable incomes companies like Starbucks (SBUX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) are looking for.

Saddling already bloated SOEs with excess headcount is not fiscally sustainable and deters private business investment. Civil servant jobs are already scarce. In 2021, there were 2 million applicants for only 30,000 positions.
Uncontained, the present crisis risks a vicious cycle in which falling real wages further deter domestic consumption, and therefore investment and job creation. It’s a scenario reminiscent of the stagnation that plagued Japan for decades. That would in turn further burden already strained government finances. At the end lies the Chinese Communist Party’s worst nightmare: social instability among legions of out-of-work people, and not enough jobs to go around.
The services sector that hires over half China's workforce is in deep trouble's workforce is in deep trouble

The services sector that hires over half China's workforce is in deep trouble
S
China’s jobless rate among 16- to 24-year-olds, a group that includes college graduates, climbed to 18.4% in May after hitting a record 18.2% in April, official data showed on June 15. The national survey-based urban unemployment rate reached 5.9% in May.

lOl, you first claimed that China is suffering labor shortage and won't be able to find enough workers and now claim that people in China can't find jobs, you always contradict yourself.

Unemployment is a worldwide problem, China , as the world biggest manufacturer, by and large, fares better than most countries.
unemployment rate.png
 

Nilgiri

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China reported has chip making machines.....:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: , we don't even see CN has its own part suppliers for the machine yet, let alone a completed chip making machine 🤣

Its ok, it will all just magically happen if you believe in CCP numah one enough.

Just like 120 - 150 billion textile export (yearly) China still does will magically transfer to "friendlier cooperation" countries....even though nothing indicates that in the longer term actual figures.

I mean Pakistan could surely use that textile capacity.....instead they got sold a white elephant infra project by CCP.

So much for "negligible" (if so can be given away and quickly to help iron brother surely?).

But you look deeper and you understand its not negligible number of jobs at all....that the 3 trillion forex needs to ensure stays as long as possible....because of what would happen if you lose those jobs.

But the CCP extreme fanboys just give their tired repetitive selective blah blah again and again....because its a cultish belief in CCP essentially.
 
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xizhimen

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But you look deeper and you understand its not negligible number of jobs at all....that the 3 trillion forex needs to ensure stays as long as possible....because of what would happen if you lose those jobs.

But the CCP extreme fanboys just give their tired repetitive selective blah blah again and again....because its a cultish belief in CCP essentially.
China's holding of one third of the world totally foreign reserves will be less useful when all countries start to hoard Yuan, even India now started to use yuan to trade with Russia.


 

Paro

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China's holding of one third of the world totally foreign reserves will be less useful when all countries start to hoard Yuan, even India now started to use yuan to trade with Russia.


Where does it say india using yaun to trade with russia?

So far indian russ trade is happening on inr.
 

Paro

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Enter google and write: India using Yuan to trade
Why? You cant do that from china?

Few Indian private cement companies used singapore banks as feeders to trade with Russia which intern used yaun mechanism as a temporary measure until Ind-russ mechanism is fully established in india. Doesnt mean india - Russia trade has gone yaun.
 

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