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Afif

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i am sorry to know your ignorance and knowledge gained from whatsapp university. please check facts India and Bangladesh exchanged, swapped, and gave up enclaves and exclaves all along the border, btw didn't you hear china buying 1000 sq miles of Turkmenistan territory, and doing similar deals with Mongolia and Kazakhstan, oh btw didn't anyone tell you that pak gifted / sold Saksgam valley / trans Karakoram tract to China in exchange for money to develop Rawalpindi citym and yes did you forget US bought panama canal track and UK bought Suez canal tract and both were very reluctant in returning them, btw there is no intention on my side to insult or demean you
All I see is, comparing Apples with oranges.
Panama and Suez was a long time ago.
Besides, Panama canal zone was 'unincorporated territory' of US.
Even that country itself was curbed out of Colombia by US for its own interest. The definition of 'State' barely apply on Panama at that time.

And when it comes to Saksgam valley, clearly you should have read more carefully about it.

From Article 6 of the treaty “the two Parties have agreed that after the settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the sovereign authority concerned will reopen negotiations with the Government of the People's Republic of China, on the boundary as described in Article Two of the present Agreement, so as to sign a formal Boundary Treaty to replace the present agreement.”

Doesn't look like Pakistan sold its sovereign territory as you are describing it.

I can drag that conversation but it will only derail the thread. Let's not do that.

Back to the topic.

1. There is no way BD is not going to sell its sovereign territory to India. (For the simple fact that, it is a people’s Republic. And 90% people won't agree on this) And this is not even comparable with enclave exchanges.
(Even that took almost 50 years to effectively implement it)

2. Any territory swap offer wouldn't be realized either. It would simply piss China off as it would be seen as Bangladesh is actively siding with India in the dispute. (which would be a huge problem for BD)

In a nutshell, Bangladesh will not take any part in India-China dispute or any potential conflict. We will always stay out of it.

@Nilgiri Could you move this convo to history, war, geopolitics thread?
 
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JOYDEEPGHOSH

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All I see is, comparing Apples with oranges.
Panama and Suez was a long time ago.
Besides, Panama canal zone was 'unincorporated territory' of US.
Even that country itself was curbed out of Colombia by US for its own interest. The definition of 'State' barely apply on Panama at that time.

And when it comes to Saksgam valley, clearly you should have read more carefully about it.

From Article 6 of the treaty “the two Parties have agreed that after the settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the sovereign authority concerned will reopen negotiations with the Government of the People's Republic of China, on the boundary as described in Article Two of the present Agreement, so as to sign a formal Boundary Treaty to replace the present agreement.”

Doesn't look like Pakistan sold its sovereign territory as you are describing it.

I can drag that conversation but it will only derail the thread. Let's not do that.

Back to the topic.

1. There is no way BD is not going to sell its sovereign territory to India. (For the simple fact that, it is a people’s Republic. And 90% people won't agree on this) And this is not even comparable with enclave exchanges.
(Even that took almost 50 years to effectively implement it)

2. Any territory swap offer wouldn't be realized either. It would simply piss China off as it would be seen as Bangladesh is actively siding with India in the dispute. (which would be a huge problem for BD)

In a nutshell, Bangladesh will not take any part in India-China dispute or any potential conflict. We will always stay out of it.

@Nilgiri Could you move this convo to history, war, geopolitics thread?
my friend the reference you give to article 6 of the agreement is for window dressing the truth, otherwise it will clearly become too obvious as to why pak sold saksgam valley and adjoining Karakoram tract to china (money to develop rawalpindi city) and even so pak had no locus standi to give it away to china, as for bang;ladesh it has no option but to side with India since its surrounded on 3 sides so it has to give importance to indias situation, as for china matter wait once the 7 dams on Brahmaputra (padma in bangladesh) come online including the one across the great bend after 2028 that will greatly reduce water supply into the country then bangladesh will be forced to side with India against china, mark my words it will happen
 

JOYDEEPGHOSH

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All I see is, comparing Apples with oranges.
Panama and Suez was a long time ago.
Besides, Panama canal zone was 'unincorporated territory' of US.
Even that country itself was curbed out of Colombia by US for its own interest. The definition of 'State' barely apply on Panama at that time.

And when it comes to Saksgam valley, clearly you should have read more carefully about it.

From Article 6 of the treaty “the two Parties have agreed that after the settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the sovereign authority concerned will reopen negotiations with the Government of the People's Republic of China, on the boundary as described in Article Two of the present Agreement, so as to sign a formal Boundary Treaty to replace the present agreement.”

Doesn't look like Pakistan sold its sovereign territory as you are describing it.

I can drag that conversation but it will only derail the thread. Let's not do that.

Back to the topic.

1. There is no way BD is not going to sell its sovereign territory to India. (For the simple fact that, it is a people’s Republic. And 90% people won't agree on this) And this is not even comparable with enclave exchanges.
(Even that took almost 50 years to effectively implement it)

2. Any territory swap offer wouldn't be realized either. It would simply piss China off as it would be seen as Bangladesh is actively siding with India in the dispute. (which would be a huge problem for BD)

In a nutshell, Bangladesh will not take any part in India-China dispute or any potential conflict. We will always stay out of it.

@Nilgiri Could you move this convo to history, war, geopolitics thread?
and btw the situation i referred to in the article is a situation that India will have to consider if bhutan gifts doklam plateau to China giving a clear shot to it into siliguri corridor, please clearly read the article
 

Nilgiri

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All I see is, comparing Apples with oranges.
Panama and Suez was a long time ago.
Besides, Panama canal zone was 'unincorporated territory' of US.
Even that country itself was curbed out of Colombia by US for its own interest. The definition of 'State' barely apply on Panama at that time.

And when it comes to Saksgam valley, clearly you should have read more carefully about it.

From Article 6 of the treaty “the two Parties have agreed that after the settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the sovereign authority concerned will reopen negotiations with the Government of the People's Republic of China, on the boundary as described in Article Two of the present Agreement, so as to sign a formal Boundary Treaty to replace the present agreement.”

Doesn't look like Pakistan sold its sovereign territory as you are describing it.

I can drag that conversation but it will only derail the thread. Let's not do that.

Back to the topic.

1. There is no way BD is not going to sell its sovereign territory to India. (For the simple fact that, it is a people’s Republic. And 90% people won't agree on this) And this is not even comparable with enclave exchanges.
(Even that took almost 50 years to effectively implement it)

2. Any territory swap offer wouldn't be realized either. It would simply piss China off as it would be seen as Bangladesh is actively siding with India in the dispute. (which would be a huge problem for BD)

In a nutshell, Bangladesh will not take any part in India-China dispute or any potential conflict. We will always stay out of it.

@Nilgiri Could you move this convo to history, war, geopolitics thread?

You can tag him there in that thread if you want to continue on any specifics. I'll keep this here since the convo originated here and the backdrop is PRC anyway.

Look, for most part I agree with you.... India would have long made overtures officially to Nepal and Bhutan if it was to then approach on same concept (of land exchange around this corridor) to BD.

It hasn't (and neither started it with those 2).... so that to me indicates India is fixing a whole lot of other (in my view far more consequential low hanging fruit) things first in its plan to deter and counter China both in this spot and other spots and topics as a whole.

Any case this guy has given some clear dates he expects to see stuff happen this decade on this matter and "just wait and see".

So its matter of letting this decade play out and he can see for himself what transpires. I've long gotten tired of going nook and cranny in this kind of debate setting when there's a "wait and you'll see" hanging over it always.

In meantime I am just going to watch what pressure West brings towards BD ruling party (BAL) this year in lead up to election. The DW documentary about the RAB that just dropped is going viral for example (I already discussed with BD friends of mine what they think of deeper rationale behind it).

West wants BAL to drop more dealings with China in my view and feel this election lead up time will be apt for it. This is probably some part of explaining why the Japanese overture at same time in military assistance domain.

Its another case of working with what you have first like you mention....there is little good reason, like you described, to coerce BD to do "pick a side" measures overtly and shake up its own stability recklessly. Neither India or West want that.
 

JOYDEEPGHOSH

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India would have long made overtures officially to Nepal and Bhutan if it was to then approach on same concept (of land exchange around this corridor) to BD.
i agree India has never made such a offer or even considered it as a situation where Bhutan will gift Doklam Plateau in exchange for china giving up claim to a much larger piece of bhiutanese land up north never arose, but now it looks a very much reality.
 

JOYDEEPGHOSH

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As for the dates even before Bangladesh India had officially protested against the building of those 7 dams on Brahmaputra that becomes Padma in Bangladesh which are in effect more important to that country than India. Do you realize what will happen if those 7 dams become operational in next 5 yrs. As for China fact is Bangladesh is kicking itself for buying 2 noisy Chinese subs to counter Myanmar that frequently breakdown whereas Myanmar is smarting itself and smiling for buying Indian Kilo submarine and is all set to buy 1 more
 

Afif

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As for the dates even before Bangladesh India had officially protested against the building of those 7 dams on Brahmaputra that becomes Padma in Bangladesh which are in effect more important to that country than India. Do you realize what will happen if those 7 dams become operational in next 5 yrs.
When those dams becomes operational we will see how all of it plays out.
As for China fact is Bangladesh is kicking itself for buying 2 noisy Chinese subs to counter Myanmar that frequently breakdown whereas Myanmar is smarting itself and smiling for buying Indian Kilo submarine and is all set to buy 1 more
Those two ming class sub aren't for actual deterrence purposes.
They were brought for political messaging both in home and aboard and mostly for training.
 

JOYDEEPGHOSH

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When those dams becomes operational we will see how all of it plays out.

Those two ming class sub aren't for actual deterrence purposes.
They were brought for political messaging both in home and aboard and mostly for training.
i hope you are finally able to see the clearer picture in time
 

Spenser

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I fail to understand why China right now is being so aggressive towards its Southeast Asian and its western neighbors when its military in its current form simply isn't ready to deal with either the USN in the pacific or the IN in the Indian ocean. Let's ignore the fact that they plan to take on the QUAD.

One of the main problems with the PLAN is its complete lack of experience with its mariners and officers. The main problem with expanding a navy so Rapidly is that you will be unable to find the experienced crews required to man the navy and ensure that the crew is trained and experienced enough to handle blue water deployment and operations.

Commander Wei Xiaohui to be Chinese Navy's first female warship captain

She became a captain of a PLAN warship in just seven years, compare that to the USN, where someone serving for seven years would just be a rank Lt. Commander. You have to be serving for at least 21-22 years in the USN to captain your own warship. While in the IN, this is around 15 years. Imagine, if the captain itself is that young, what would be the experience level of other officers and sailors. This is why I have said both here and elsewhere that, PLAN needs at least another 10-15 years to even think of matching USN in terms of developing the operational warfighting doctrines and crew experience. Even then the size of USN is predicted to increase its fleet size from 301 to 355 ships by 2034. Shiny toys will only get you so far.

As for the blockade, I doubt any IN or USN blockade will mean a 100% blockade. It's likely that any ship heading to or from China will be blockaded and any ships entering from elsewhere will be most likely allowed to go through. We have the information fusion center which is already in collaboration with 21 countries. I don't think it will be that difficult to set up a precise blockade without any collateral damage. Also from what I understand, the majority of Chinese shipping is basically Chinese merchant shipping which can be blockaded. While the majority of the Indian shipping is actually flagged as foreign vessels. So I am not sure if PLAN can actually blockade any ships going from Pacific/SCS side to India without collateral(diplomatic) damage.

PLAN right now cannot operate in the IOR region. They tried quite a lot to develop their string of pearls and create the infrastructure necessary for PLAN warships to be deployed extensively. The only place they can deploy, maintain, and resupply is in Gwadar port. Maldives is not an option, Srilanka has clearly said they will not allow anything in Hambentota. Maybe Myanmar, but even they won't be bend over as willingly as the Pakistanis did. Except for Nuclear Subs(maybe), any PLAN warship that enters the IOR is extremely vulnerable.
Do some reserch you can find the reason.
 

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Afif

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@Nilgiri
I don't know how international water sharing works. But if I remember correctly, the dam is supposed to work on run-of-river basis.

It looks like India is also planning to build a dam downstream to counter it.

But what if China just halt the water altogether, what will India do? I thought not getting water was the bigger concern than getting floaded by overflow.
 
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Nilgiri

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@Nilgiri
I don't know how international water sharing works. But if I remember correctly, the dam is supposed to work on run-of-river basis.

It looks like India is also planning to build a dam downstream to counter it.

But what if China just halt the water altogether, what will India do? I thought not getting water was the bigger concern than getting floaded by overflow.

Not getting water is not that big of issue here compared to say Mekong (that host gets alarmist upon in making an equivalency).

PRC controls maybe around 20% of the water that makes it to the local economic artery of India and BD.

This is why it was imperative that India kept and keeps arunachal pradesh under its control long term as this is where the watershed really establishes (~80%) for the Brahmaputra in raw flow terms.

I am veteran myself of handling a number of CCPbot troll hordes on this topic when it came up starting ~ 10 years ago and intensifying about ~5 years ago.

The hydrology data for example can be found in pages 15 and so on here:


But yes discharge dynamics and earthquake threat are much more larger concerns when it comes to specific dam China is building here...and Mr. Chellaney is correct to prioritise focus on that in the end.

As to what India will do, its already set into motion. Every single Indian in any position of leverage on a matter of note w.r.t CCP has to gather and concentrate force in purging and eviction of that tentacle. A group of us are proceeding right now to do just this in Canada in my domain....and making sure the CCP knows it us too. Find a "tier A job" in your own country...no more access to IP theft and IP networking/databases for you....and dont let the door hit you on the way out.

This way they are deleveraged in critical areas and its win-win for the West and India long term. There's lot of 5 eyes cooperation with India starting too, just needs further consolidation in certain things even CCP cant control well with its own population. Weibo is great for it.
 

Hari Sud

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@Nilgiri
I don't know how international water sharing works. But if I remember correctly, the dam is supposed to work on run-of-river basis.

It looks like India is also planning to build a dam downstream to counter it.

But what if China just halt the water altogether, what will India do? I thought not getting water was the bigger concern than getting floaded by overflow.
About 70% of water which is Brahmaputra River in India comes from rain fell in Assam and neighbouring hill states. In summer time, it is a bit less and later during rainy season it exceeds 85% as no rain falls in Tibet. The river in Tibet has only snow melt.
 

Hari Sud

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DSDBO Road and DBO ALG Are Now Useless

Useless; not really. It has been reconnected with Leh across the mountains, bypassing Chinese threat to Depsang plains.
 

Afif

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About 70% of water which is Brahmaputra River in India comes from rain fell in Assam and neighbouring hill states. In summer time, it is a bit less and later during rainy season it exceeds 85% as no rain falls in Tibet. The river in Tibet has only snow melt.

Is that why PRC wants Arunachal? For water resources?
@Nilgiri
 

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