India India interested in Joining European 6th Gen FCAS Fighter Program

[Gessler]

Talks are at a very exploratory stage so nothing is confirmed yet. First reports appeared last month:

India eyes 6th generation FCAS, looks at tying up with France for possible collaboration

Initial talks held on the possibility of India entering the programme that was started in 2017 between France, Germany and Spain to ensure European sovereignty in defence and security.

theprint.in

Later in March, the proposal was confirmed to be official:

India pitches to join Future Combat Air System with France

India seeks to join France's Future Combat Air System program, enhancing defense collaboration amid record defense exports.

www.thehindu.com

"...At the 6th India-France Annual Defence Dialogue in Bengaluru, this Feburary, India expressed its interest in joining France’s futuristic sixth-generation fighter jet programme. The proposal was discussed in a meeting by India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, where Minister of the Armed Forces and Veterans Affairs of France Catherine Vautrin were also present.

According to official sources, Mr. Singh presented India’s intent to participate in the co-development and co-manufacture of a sixth-generation combat aircraft under the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) programme. The ambitious project was originally launched by France and Germany in 2017, with Spain joining the initiative in 2019. India’s participation would mark a significant expansion of defence-industrial cooperation between New Delhi and Paris.

The FCAS programme aims to develop a next-generation air combat system centred around a sixth-generation fighter, supported by unmanned systems and advanced network-centric warfare capabilities..."

++++

My comments:

In the long term (2050+), India will need a 6th gen air superiority platform to replace the 260+ Su-30MKIs in service. This is a role the AMCA is not expected to fill. If that requirement can be clubbed with the Navy's evolving need for a next gen deck-based fighter to fly from future CATOBAR carriers, there is likely potential requirement for ~350+ airframes of the type.

Germany's biggest gripes with the program being 1) not requiring a carrier-based version and 2) not wanting it to be nuclear delivery-ready, neither of which are likely to be issues for India. In fact we would love for it to have those features.

On the face of it, joining FCAS makes a lot of sense. But whether everything can be successfully negotiated or not is the question. The impending 114 Rafale deal for ~$35 Billion and Safran being the preferred party for AMCA's $7 Billion next-gen engine program would go a long way in solidifying the relationship with France & Dassault. That would possibly set a good stage for joining FCAS.

Remains to be seen which way things will go.

@Nilgiri @TR_123456

 

[TR_123456]

Talks are at a very exploratory stage so nothing is confirmed yet. First reports appeared last month:

India eyes 6th generation FCAS, looks at tying up with France for possible collaboration

Initial talks held on the possibility of India entering the programme that was started in 2017 between France, Germany and Spain to ensure European sovereignty in defence and security.

theprint.in

Later in March, the proposal was confirmed to be official:

India pitches to join Future Combat Air System with France

India seeks to join France's Future Combat Air System program, enhancing defense collaboration amid record defense exports.

www.thehindu.com

"...At the 6th India-France Annual Defence Dialogue in Bengaluru, this Feburary, India expressed its interest in joining France’s futuristic sixth-generation fighter jet programme. The proposal was discussed in a meeting by India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, where Minister of the Armed Forces and Veterans Affairs of France Catherine Vautrin were also present.

According to official sources, Mr. Singh presented India’s intent to participate in the co-development and co-manufacture of a sixth-generation combat aircraft under the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) programme. The ambitious project was originally launched by France and Germany in 2017, with Spain joining the initiative in 2019. India’s participation would mark a significant expansion of defence-industrial cooperation between New Delhi and Paris.

The FCAS programme aims to develop a next-generation air combat system centred around a sixth-generation fighter, supported by unmanned systems and advanced network-centric warfare capabilities..."

++++

My comments:

In the long term (2050+), India will need a 6th gen air superiority platform to replace the 260+ Su-30MKIs in service. This is a role the AMCA is not expected to fill. If that requirement can be clubbed with the Navy's evolving need for a next gen deck-based fighter to fly from future CATOBAR carriers, there is likely potential requirement for ~350+ airframes of the type.

Germany's biggest gripes with the program being 1) not requiring a carrier-based version and 2) not wanting it to be nuclear delivery-ready, neither of which are likely to be issues for India. In fact we would love for it to have those features.

On the face of it, joining FCAS makes a lot of sense. But whether everything can be successfully negotiated or not is the question. The impending 114 Rafale deal for ~$35 Billion and Safran being the preferred party for AMCA's $7 Billion next-gen engine program would go a long way in solidifying the relationship with France & Dassault. That would possibly set a good stage for joining FCAS.

Remains to be seen which way things will go.

View attachment 79582

@Nilgiri @TR_123456

The problem is both France and Germany together in such a project,it usually doesnt even start.
Maybe you should develop from the AMCA or go with France alone(with others) since you have a good relationship already.
There is also the possibility that Germany changes its priorities and takes a more active instead of the passive stance it has in all military projects.

 

[Gessler]

The problem is both France and Germany together in such a project,it usually doesnt even start.
Maybe you should develop from the AMCA or go with France alone(with others) since you have a good relationship already.
There is also the possibility that Germany changes its priorities and takes a more active instead of the passive stance it has in all military projects.

Agreed, dealing with Germany can be a headache.

On the other hand, if Germany ends up leaving the program over their disagreements with French requirements, then things could get interesting.

 

[TR_123456]

Agreed, dealing with Germany can be a headache.

On the other hand, if Germany ends up leaving the program over their disagreements with French requirements, then things could get interesting.

It all depends on Merz,he seems to be more assertive but German politics is crazy.
The Greens have won in the last Baden Würthenberg(province/state) elections ahead of the CDU of Merz which could be an indication for the next elections.
The Green party is a big obstacle for defence projects in Germany.
You are better of without current Germany.

 

[Gessler]

Agreed, dealing with Germany can be a headache.

On the other hand, if Germany ends up leaving the program over their disagreements with French requirements, then things could get interesting.

Well, that has happened.

Franco-German Future Fighter Effort Collapses Over Irreconcilable Differences

Germany and France failed to come to terms on requirements, apparently bringing Europe’s flagship next gen fighter program to an end. Germany and France have failed to reconcile requirements, apparently bringing Europe’s flagship combat air program to an end.

www.twz.com

Now time to see what this means for India's interest in the program. For starters, carrier-spec airframe and nuclear-hardened electronics will be a-okay for IAF/IN.

As I've said before, there's certainly space for a 6th gen air superiority platform in the IAF for a post-2045 scenario (eventual MKI replacement for 250-300 airframes). This will be independent of AMCA as that plane was never meant to replace the MKI.

Funding is of course the question. The ~$35 billion Rafale purchase should certainly help get our foot in the door but ultimately any FCAS investment will cost a significant amount on its own. How significant will depend on what we want from the platform e.g. I really doubt we will seek joint IP control of the European platform. Most likely, we will seek to obtain simple ToT to locally manufacture the airframe & engines. But we will likely implement our own 'combat cloud' and avionics most probably. Very MKI-like in scope. If that's the case, our investment in R&D need not be at the intended level of Germany's.

If the Navy comes in with their own requirement for a carrier-based 6th gen jet for our future CATOBAR flattops, that should help our case further. It'll also help France as right now the Marine Nationale is the only intended buyer of the carrier-spec version. IN's purchase should help remove some of that burden.

 

[Afif]

Well, that has happened.

Franco-German Future Fighter Effort Collapses Over Irreconcilable Differences

Germany and France failed to come to terms on requirements, apparently bringing Europe’s flagship next gen fighter program to an end. Germany and France have failed to reconcile requirements, apparently bringing Europe’s flagship combat air program to an end.

www.twz.com

Now time to see what this means for India's interest in the program. For starters, carrier-spec airframe and nuclear-hardened electronics will be a-okay for IAF/IN.

As I've said before, there's certainly space for a 6th gen air superiority platform in the IAF for a post-2045 scenario (eventual MKI replacement for 250-300 airframes). This will be independent of AMCA as that plane was never meant to replace the MKI.

Funding is of course the question. The ~$35 billion Rafale purchase should certainly help get our foot in the door but ultimately any FCAS investment will cost a significant amount on its own. How significant will depend on what we want from the platform e.g. I really doubt we will seek joint IP control of the European platform. Most likely, we will seek to obtain simple ToT to locally manufacture the airframe & engines. But we will likely implement our own 'combat cloud' and avionics most probably. Very MKI-like in scope. If that's the case, our investment in R&D need not be at the intended level of Germany's.

If the Navy comes in with their own requirement for a carrier-based 6th gen jet for our future CATOBAR flattops, that should help our case further. It'll also help France as right now the Marine Nationale is the only intended buyer of the carrier-spec version. IN's purchase should help remove some of that burden.

When first AMCA prototype is flying and infra+experience is already there, wouldn't it make more sense to start indigenously design a 6th gen platform from early 2030s and induct it in late 2040s.

From US and China's experience, it seems, 6th gen programs are running relatively smoothly compared to 5th gen programs since 2000s. A lot of core technologies developed under 5th gen programs are providing baseline for what to come in 6th gen platforms. Specially in terms of sensors, fusion engine, and networking lately.

Obviously, you would need a tailless wideband stealth platform and powerful engines. If joint venture with Safran is successful and technologies+expertise are transferred, then a powerful variant of AMCA's engine can be derived within reasonable timeline I suppose.

 

[Gessler]

When first AMCA prototype is flying and infra+experience is already there, wouldn't it make more sense to start indigenously design a 6th gen platform from early 2030s and induct it in late 2040s.

From US and China's experience, it seems, 6th gen programs are running relatively smoothly compared to 5th gen programs since 2000s. A lot of core technologies developed under 5th gen programs are providing baseline for what to come in 6th gen platforms. Specially in terms of sensors, fusion engine, and networking lately.

Obviously, you would need a tailless wideband stealth platform and powerful engines. If joint venture with Safran is successful and technologies+expertise are transferred, then a powerful variant of AMCA's engine can be derived within reasonable timeline I suppose.

I feel they'll prefer to diversify in order to create back-ups. The Govt/IAF has already expressed an interest in both FCAS & GCAP.

Right now there's too many unknowns regarding the AMCA Mk2 (with NG engine), so expecting to create a 6th gen out of that without any Plan B would be quite risky in the face of J-36/J-XDS already emerging.

The J-36 in particular is a concern because it could represent an ability of the PLAAF to influence an air war over Tibet/Xinjiang while operating from bases in the core Chinese lowlands. This is something current jets (including J-20) cannot do, and therefore have to rely on bases within Tibet/Xinjiang which are few and far between (susceptible to saturation strikes that puts those air wings out of commission).

FCAS could represent having a viable air superiority fighter that can effectively engage & disrupt J-36/J-XDS sorties by mid-2040s, as opposed to an indigenous 6th gen that might only appear 10 or so years later. Those years are valuable time.

The AMCA can help stabilize the situation, but is not designed to take on likes of J-XDS or other F47-class fighters that are bound to hold significant kinematic & 'broadband stealth' advantages over a conventional 5th gen airframe like the AMCA/F-35/others.