India India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) Thread

[GoatsMilk]

EDIT: Mod news Reference: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...corridor-linking-europe-middle-east-and-india

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Nope. It might have been possible if the Erdogan admin didnt go out of its way to wreck the Turkish economy to the level it is now extremely beholden to KSA and UAE forex support and the associated 180 reversals suddenly taken in relations. Where in the 1- 10 scale those changes are taken credibly by the Gulf states, one is free to speculate.

The Gulf states always bring this up when Turkey comes up (when it rarely does happes) for conversation with India nowadays.

As long as the Erdogan admin is there and Turkish economy is in the state it is in and is unable to put up money for international infra projects with the forex level it has.... it will not be treated as a serious party.

The Arabs are also very interested in improving relations with Israel (Haifa port, now owned by Indian conglomerate) to counter Iran...and the US is interested in strengthening the Abraham accords.

This is all going to provide the impetus and inertia.

If Turkiye wanted to do better as a route, it should have done better core economically in the last decade (and this one). Instead you see the results for yourself. Instead it didn't even make wise investments regarding capital allocation for oil refining (as I talked about in the economy thread)....and then the Erdogan admin did a number of foreign policies that deteoriated relations with all these parties: KSA, UAE, India, Israel, US.

Like you can do one of the two and try recover, not both.

So this is case of objection noted and objection ignored. Make yourself matter in the next decade (2030 - 2040) at least after base recovery in this one, put up your own core funding for what you want to see and we will then see.

I had no idea about any of this, but its typical erdogan.

'No corridor without Turkey': Erdogan opposes India-Middle East transport project

Turkish president says Ankara is backing a rival scheme to connect the Gulf to Turkey through Iraq, called the Development Road Project

www.middleeasteye.net

Its fascinating watching this guy perform. He actively burns down all bridges with india, he provokes their disputes with pakistan in such a way as to only inflame and increase tensions, then he turns round and thinks india is going to join a trade project connecting them with the EU and place Turkiye in it?

Honestly is erdogan mad? So India whose seen a hostile erdogan is going to risk placing part of their trade network in Turkiye? And then be at the mercy erdogans mood swings?

If I'm India you would actively want to avoid Turkiye.

Now surely erdogan if you were so concerned about such a network why the hell would you spend the last 20 years provoking india?

Now some people are getting offended. It reminds me of the recent photo shoot with indian pilots and the greeks and some people were throwing shade on india. But we spent the last 20 years under erdogan playing these games on india especially with pakistan, then we act all self righteous when they do it.

As Turks we face incredible propaganda and slander on the international stage the only thing we have that can counter this is behaving with integrity, under AK party we are turning into a typical middle eastern style turncoat nation.

 

[Melkor]

I had no idea about any of this, but its typical erdogan.

'No corridor without Turkey': Erdogan opposes India-Middle East transport project

Turkish president says Ankara is backing a rival scheme to connect the Gulf to Turkey through Iraq, called the Development Road Project

www.middleeasteye.net

Its fascinating watching this guy perform. He actively burns down all bridges with india, he provokes their disputes with pakistan in such a way as to only inflame and increase tensions, then he turns round and thinks india is going to join a trade project connecting them with the EU and place Turkiye in it?

Honestly is erdogan mad? So India whose seen a hostile erdogan is going to risk placing part of their trade network in Turkiye? And then be at the mercy erdogans mood swings?

If I'm India you would actively want to avoid Turkiye.

Now surely erdogan if you were so concerned about such a network why the hell would you spend the last 20 years provoking india?

Now some people are getting offended. It reminds me of the recent photo shoot with indian pilots and the greeks and some people were throwing shade on india. But we spent the last 20 years under erdogan playing these games on india especially with pakistan, then we act all self righteous when they do it.

As Turks we face incredible propaganda and slander on the international stage the only thing we have that can counter this is behaving with integrity, under AK party we are turning into a typical middle eastern style turncoat nation.

Ffs, didn’t take you long.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Ffs, didn’t take you long.

Turkiye is a poor country for a reason.

Our geography could warrant us so many economic opportunities, instead we shit it all away. Absolute failure.

The guy cant even resolve northern syria and northern iraq meanwhile hes telling 1.2 billion india, the gulf states, europeans and americans that no corridor without Turkiye. Only muppets get excited by this nonsense and having visited Turkiye it has its fair share.

And let me add this, Kurdistan is a real agenda, that means the Isrealis, Americans, Europeans, gulf states and Indians all know that troubles are going to continue to destabilise iraq and Turkiye for the next 100 years. Only India is the one that doesn't actively support the Kurdistan/PKK agenda. So these guys are looking at Turkiye as a nation thats going to be "balkanised" eventually. Hence why this project can make sense.

So it makes perfect sense why you would try to avoid Iraq and Turkiye.

 

[B_A]

Turkiye is a poor country for a reason.

Our geography could warrant us so many economic opportunities, instead we shit it all away. Absolute failure.

The guy cant even resolve northern syria and northern iraq meanwhile hes telling 1.2 billion india, the gulf states, europeans and americans that no corridor without Turkiye. Only muppets get excited by this nonsense and having visited Turkiye it has its fair share.

And let me add this, Kurdistan is a real agenda, that means the Isrealis, Americans, Europeans, gulf states and Indians all know that troubles are going to continue to destabilise iraq and Turkiye for the next 100 years. Only India is the one that doesn't actively support the Kurdistan/PKK agenda. So these guys are looking at Turkiye as a nation thats going to be "balkanised" eventually. Hence why this project can make sense.

So it makes perfect sense why you would try to avoid Iraq and Turkiye.

Erdogan has many problems

But that s just a speech didn’t need to take it serious.western leaders especially Macron always do these type of speeches.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Erdogan has many problems

But that s just a speech didn’t need to take it serious.western leaders especially Macron always do these type of speeches.

You don't need tell me that, you need tell erdogan supporters that. Their the guys taking him seriously despite having a 20 year record of failure after failure after failure.

Any rational mind would know that if your India your going to be against Turkiye considering her posture towards her. It actually fascinates me despite all the instigations the indians are not really making any efforts to cause us problems regionally. They could do a lot more for Armenia, Greece and the PKK and there is next to nothing Turkiye could do stop their support.

Its also interesting to see Saudi screwing Pakistan. The same Pakistan that would avoid Turkiye on a saudi phone call.

 

[I_Love_F16]

You don't need tell me that, you need tell erdogan supporters that. Their the guys taking him seriously despite having a 20 year record of failure after failure after failure.

Any rational mind would know that if your India your going to be against Turkiye considering her posture towards her. It actually fascinates me despite all the instigations the indians are not really making any efforts to cause us problems regionally. They could do a lot more for Armenia, Greece and the PKK and there is next to nothing Turkiye could do stop their support.

Its also interesting to see Saudi screwing Pakistan. The same Pakistan that would avoid Turkiye on a saudi phone call.

Erdogan government siding with Pakistan during these 20 years was a huge mistake in my opinion. We could have gained so much more if Turkiye stayed neutral between Pakistan and India, because India is a huge market after all, with a growing economy. Many opportunities lost because of that. Not only that, they are usually neutral as you rightfully pointed out, but seeing the staunch support of Turkiye towards Pakistan, they might soon support Turkiye’s enemy in the future, and frankly speaking, if they do, I wouldn’t blame them.

 

[TheInsider]

Of course. And this Indian led, American sponsored corridor is designed to cut China as a hub in the future and break the BRI.

It will have an opposing effect. Chinese goods will be more competitive as the transportation price of Indian goods will be higher.

This American plan revolves around rich Middle East countries subsidizing transportation costs long enough that Chinese trade+production capacity gets crippled. This is a tall order. Anyway, this initiative is worse than the East Med pipeline project.

 

[Nilgiri]

Harsh words. I had to look up to see if there has been an economic miracle in India recently to justify the tone but it seems Indian GDP per capita is still worse than a quarter of the Turkish one. I suppose it's getting there.

I don't think these routes are serious proposals to begin with as the high cost due to multiple modality changes is self-evident. They are more like geopolitical statements to give a sense of self-importance to India (in case they don't have enough already) and tie together the countries in the route, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel.

I call it as I see it, the tone is literally the most neutral one given the circumstances long discussed with Turkish members in various threads over time....who have taken tones far far harsher on the Erdogan admin than I ever would desire to.

Turkish GDP by its own estimate in 2020 - 2025 is charting near exact same numbers as 2010-2015. i.e 700 - 900 billion USD.

That's a decade squandered....and largely by the hand of the Erdogan admin. I wont go into what the inflation levels have done on top.
These are objective facts.

Worse, its a hollower version of the 2010 one when it comes to foreign policy finance (if you dont have say a large sovereign wealth fund, we can only then look at the forex pile, before we then analyse how leveraged that forex pile is).

Turkish forex levels from 2010 - 2015 ranged from 70 billion USD - 110 billion USD.

Nowadays it takes wild swings in the 40 - 80 billion range (again because of currency exchanging with Gulf region countries and the over-reliance on a tourist season)....because it didn't invest nearly enough into hard factory production and core input sectors for example, preferring real estate during its relative boom time.

Indian economic performance from 2010 till now is nothing to write home about given its own squandering of potential (GDP essentially only doubled to tripled depending on references used and it should have done twice as good as that IMO, the reasons are long to get into why it didnt and there are two administrations to unpack unlike with Turkiye which had a monolith).

But its forex increased from 300 billion to about 600 billion now and there are not wild swings (doubling, halving, doubling again) in it.

The path is also fairly clear and assured as to what it has to keep doing this decade economic and foreign policy wise.

Then we come to the forex levels of KSA and UAE relative to their population and their very large sovereign wealth funds for projects like this. Things that go a ways to topping off Turkish forex right now as we speak in exchange for whatever concessions in return I suppose the Turkish nation will see in later years.

Erdogan admin is the one that put Turkiye in this position, and now he wants to cry foul about this logistics route being worked upon by others?

With Iraq in precarious state as it is too? Turkiye going to commit funds and military there to get that patched up cohesively (for a logistics route) against deep Iranian involvement and proximity there?

Why would these countries take Erdogan admin seriously? He took deliberate foreign policy stances and decisions to worsen relations with them too than objectively needed to be.

No country is sunshine and rainbows in the end, but there is a real world of statecraft and relations-shaping to pursue and Erdogan admin one has been well below par.

I thought we were friends dude ! You saddened me.

Um, do I know you?

 

[Nilgiri]

From an economical and logistical perspective, an India-Middle-East-Europe route is probably the worst proposition among the 3 available ones. As @TheInsider mentioned, the existing route through Suez is basically the superior one compared to the alternatives but even then a route trying to go around Turkey is going to jack up expenses and logistical difficulties to such a level that I guarantee you it won't be worth it in the end. @Nilgiri is correct that Turkish economy is not exactly in the strongest place to put forward its own suggestions but that's not the factor that I suspect will cripple this India-Middle-East-Europe proposition - it will be crippled by the fact that better alternatives exist for all parties involved. You can't really skip Turkey if you want the most expedient route that doesn't involve Egypt.

Sorry but no one is going to invest in Basra port and the tenuous route through Iraq with its deep scars, extreme factional politics, strife and instability and Iran overlooking and involving itself like it does all along it (KSA and UAE definitely will not).

You either go directly through Iran (and thus the Iran geopolitical realm w.r.t Russia and China) or you go a good distance away from them, no half measures where they will just start playing games knowing gulf money artery is ripe for the picking nearby.

Given Iran sanctions regime from the West and the Russia-Ukraine war that is now going to be permanently baked in for likely this century along with the Azerbaijan-Armenia thing also showing no sign of abating for long time...the Iran-Russia corridor is dead end project....and anything close to Iran like Iraq is also not going to be secure for investors.

Compare that to the TEU capacity already existing and commited to in Dubai and Haifa....and the only secure stable geopolitical route connecting the two with KSA and Jordan.

With the US and Europe involved too, we shall see in the next couple months what the details are regarding funding and throughput analysis for the long term....and also the next contours to KSA recognizing and setting up relations with Israel when that happens.

But its going ahead.

 

[Nilgiri]

It will have an opposing effect. Chinese goods will be more competitive as the transportation price of Indian goods will be higher.

This American plan revolves around rich Middle East countries subsidizing transportation costs long enough that Chinese trade+production capacity gets crippled. This is a tall order. Anyway, this initiative is worse than the East Med pipeline project.

Do you understand what ship-ship routes are compared to for goods that are more time and corridor sensitive?

Do you literally understand what the whole premise was for BRI compared to expanding more shipping and harbour capacity...given shipping pricepoint is by far the lowest?

Why China plugged in a ton of money and geopolitical resources with BRI if shipping is cheapest by far? (But didnt predict in the end just how bad Russia relations with the west would deteoriate so fast and now stuck at huge losses regarding that).

There are tiers of goods, there are corridors that have further economic and other rationale than sea lanes.

 

[Nilgiri]

Portuguese could opt to use the land route as usual, but they decided to go around Africa instead, which changed the world. This is a macro matter.

One gotta add, biggest loser of this corridor is Egypt as it completely bypasses Suez cannal. Which is good for us as it would be easier to pull them to an agreement.

Suez is at near full capacity, even with its ship size restriction. Its why the largest cargo ships (that offer the lowest shipping prices) already go around Africa instead.

How a land corridor (rail and road) competes in the region for various tiers of goods that have more premium w.r.t travel time compared to having to rely on ships all the way.....lets see.

According to wiki, this is the latest Suez expansion going on, I dont see the huge front on competition the MEIC would have given the capacity constraints and costs of the Suez infra and shipping always being the cheapest end-end to begin with:

The Egyptian government launched construction in 2014 to expand and widen the Ballah Bypass for 35 km (22 mi) to speed up the canal's transit time. The expansion intended to nearly double the capacity of the Suez Canal, from 49 to 97 ships per day.[9] At a cost of LE 59.4 billion (US$9 billion), this project was funded with interest-bearing investment certificates issued exclusively to Egyptian entities and individuals.

The Suez Canal Authority officially opened the new side channel in 2016. This side channel, at the northern side of the east extension of the Suez Canal, serves the East Terminal for berthing and unberthing vessels from the terminal. As the East Container Terminal is located on the Canal itself, before the construction of the new side channel it was not possible to berth or unberth vessels at the terminal while a convoy was running

 

[Anmdt]

Do you understand what ship-ship routes are compared to for goods that are more time and corridor sensitive?

Do you literally understand what the whole premise was for BRI compared to expanding more shipping and harbour capacity...given shipping pricepoint is by far the lowest?

Why China plugged in a ton of money and geopolitical resources with BRI if shipping is cheapest by far? (But didnt predict in the end just how bad Russia relations with the west would deteoriate so fast and now stuck at huge losses regarding that).

There are tiers of goods, there are corridors that have further economic and other rationale than sea lanes.

To be honest, i am among the people who find these 'corridors', regardless of being funded or leaded by whomever, merely part of the politics or fueled by politics. Just as Chinese corridor was not making any sense to me, neither this new one do. I just laughed once i saw it, and not paid attention to fancy graphs and animations after that.

 

[GoatsMilk]

To be honest, i am among the people who find these 'corridors', regardless of being funded or leaded by whomever, merely part of the politics or fueled by politics. Just as Chinese corridor was not making any sense to me, neither this new one do. I just laughed once i saw it, and not paid attention to fancy graphs and animations after that.

When Britain dominated the seas the Germans attempted to create a land corridor into Ottoman lands to export their goods to the wider world. Americans can shut the seas down, China needs an alternative just in case. In many ways it makes perfect sense, but at the same time its a massive project with massive problems to overcome.

 

[Nilgiri]

To be honest, i am among the people who find these 'corridors', regardless of being funded or leaded by whomever, merely part of the politics or fueled by politics. Just as Chinese corridor was not making any sense to me, neither this new one do. I just laughed once i saw it, and not paid attention to fancy graphs and animations after that.

In any case, I am waiting for more details to come out over next few months and then next year. Then I will pass more judgement.

The issue with BRI was it was done at large scales (build it and they will come) quite recklessly, I don't see the same here as its region specific between two existing ports....given the whole Iran-Russia-Central Asia conduit to Europe is going nowhere, whomever attempts that (China tried it in largest way and stuck with the bill now largely).

There is also the matter that the Europeans want a lot more LNG terminals given whats happened with Russia-Ukraine....one that does not come under Iranian pressure (like the persian gulf area) and bypasses the Suez chokepoint might fight the ticket for finance and commitment....then you make it more multi-modal for other stuff too wherever the market pricing makes sense.

i.e We don't know the energy conduit versus goods transport angle of things yet (i.e which one dominates, which one follows).

In any case we all have to see how KSA recognises Israel for any of this to pass muster later. It is certain the US is also using this to push KSA in that direction in the short term.

There's lot of things at play, we will have to observe for some time.

 

[Baryshx]

Of course. And this Indian led, American sponsored corridor is designed to cut China as a hub in the future and break the BRI.

To cut China out of the future? This can only be a wet dream of the US and India. We are talking about a country with a population of 1 billion people, which is the raw material center of the world.

 

[Nilgiri]

Moving the conversation here if any members want to take discussion further (especially any non-Turkish foreign policy related etc).

The initial reply quotes can be used to see origins of this thread in the TR foreign policy thread.

 

[Nilgiri]

To cut China out of the future? This can only be a wet dream of the US and India. We are talking about a country with a population of 1 billion people, which is the raw material center of the world.

No, its not a dream for India or US (cutting out China out of world future). It will be a hedge, that is all. There is deep extensive economic relations between US-China-India in all directions even with political relations declining between China and the other two.

There is no absolute to be done here with such large countries, look how difficult West has of doing it with Russia right now....and Russia is a fraction of China's relevance to world this century.

 

[wolveray1]

Seems to me,the success of iraq corridor depend on china,iran,turkey,iraq and gulf countries involvement.
If most of them work together then it will be high probability that it will work.
We must remember most of those militias are control by them and these corridors will not only serve India but the rest of Asia too.
Yet it all depend on transportation cost.
If suez canal still give cheaper cost even with the delay,then why bother building all these corridors.
If you want express or faster delivery then just use airfreight.

 

[Nilgiri]

If suez canal still give cheaper cost even with the delay,then why bother building all these corridors.
If you want express or faster delivery then just use airfreight.

There is pricing/time between these two (shipping and air). i.e trading off price and time.

Air gets really expensive for the amount transported, the items have to be very premium on timely delivery generally.

Thats why worldwide (where routing available for all) rail and road handle lot of freight occupying space between ship and air pricing.

What kind of goods and energy transport breakdown is projected in IMEC for the economics analysis, we will see in coming months etc.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1704551423420371187