India set to overtake China as most populous nation, two child policy proposed

[xizhimen]

India set to overtake China as most populous nation, two child policy proposed

 

[Kaptaan]

India set to overtake China as most populous nation, two child policy proposed

“quantity has a quality of its own” Joseph Stalin.

 

[Kaptaan]

Actually I suspect India is already even with China at probably 1.4 billion. Figures from 2019 show India closing in fast. This figure is greater then all of Europe, USA, Canada, South America combined or near 1/5 of the earth's population. Sobering thought.

 

[FalconSlayersDFI]

Smh

 

[Kaptaan]

This is a greart infographic of the global population and each countries share. China and India literally dominate big chunk of it.

 

[kumata]

Actually I suspect India is already even with China at probably 1.4 billion. Figures from 2019 show India closing in fast. This figure is greater then all of Europe, USA, Canada, South America combined or near 1/5 of the earth's population. Sobering thought.

View attachment 25464

IMO, these figures are speculative at best and have no real solid footing. Still, population bill is the need of the hour .

 

[Kaptaan]

Source: World Bank. Population line diagram over time of China, India, Pakistan, Turkey. Gives a good perspective.

 

[Nilgiri]

IMO, these figures are speculative at best and have no real solid footing. Still, population bill is the need of the hour .

The average of 2.1 currently has a variance somewhat hidden at first glance

Important thing overall is to get to the consistent balance of TFR = 2.1 as consistent everywhere as possible....and not be too high or too low in various populated spots.

i.e bring states like UP and Bihar from their TFR of 3 close to 2.1 ...and bring the states in south and east that are now approaching 1.6 (or even lower)...steadily closer to 2.1.

This is overall the chart for countries like India, Bangladesh and Iran that have managed macrodemographic transition reasonably.

i.e they should continue to try escape both extremes like seen atrociously at one end in the area (Pakistan and Afghanistan with TFRs in 3.5 area and barely reducing just like their infant mortality rates) and PRC on the other (with serious demographic problem of other variety esp. relative to wealth accumulation during the bulge period projected this century).

The population pyramid effects (and projected populations, compositions and relative stability) can be found here:

Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100

WORLD - 2019

www.populationpyramid.net

One can see which country will still be struggling to stabilize at 400 million people even by 2100....because of its gross mismanagement and proclivities in this area.

@VCheng

 

[Kaptaan]

One can see which country will still be struggling to stabilize at 400 million people even by 2100....because of its gross mismanagement and proclivities in this area.

Maybe if this country had mismanaged India variant it might have culled a good few % sent down the Indus but alas ....

 

[Kaptaan]

And I think I already clarified most of the growth will come in provinces which are sparesely populated. Punjab is already seeing decline. In India on the other hand most of ther growth will take place in areas like Bihar where already there is little space to even take a pee.

 

[Nilgiri]

Maybe if this country had mismanaged India variant it might have culled a good few % sent down the Indus but alas ....

I have zero credibility in the Pakistani establishment about all that kind of stuff....ever since it sent literal millions of people fleeing its atrocities into India (with stories of just how many were being murdered/died en masse with associated state-repressing of it)....and still does not reconcile and come clean on it....and just double's down on it. It needs actual credible population surveys (if cleansing political revolutions are not forthcoming) in the end.

Similarly, I would not have much credibility in the various "A, B and C" measuring-sensitive counting numbers of a Nazi German rump state (if one persisted) for that very reason either. The psychology just gets entrenched in both overt totalitarianism and various proxy variants of it by entrenched and psychologically compromised establishment larping as whatever setup of immediate convenience. Truth and honesty is based on the proper allegiance of it from the 1st principle and as this relates to a nation state's ethos and more importantly basic track record.

At any rate, the world will over time increasingly realise how close Pakistan is to a number of Afghanistan's tendencies + results (given the similar psyche found there among so many developed over 100s of years), or maybe its the other way around. Only that the basic difference is the extrapolated scale of 10 times for one of them. There are some very raw (inescapable) numbers of reality like a basic census whenever they do happen, and other ones taking shape and solidifying (in undeniable way) in the last 20 years...both inside and outside the actual political borders of these entities.

Meanwhile I can confidently say India and Iran will continue to actually produce intellectual sustenance (the only way for any chance of sustained economic breakout) compared to the void (occupied by 2 countries) between them....precisely because of the underlying reasons governing all this. One visit to any university here in Canada for example says it all like nothing else does.

A population 6 times less should have 6 times less output, rather than 50 or 100 times less or worse.

How surprised or not surprised you will be (say 10 years downroad and then say 20 years) is very much related to how you pay attention to this stuff and know the reality deep down, past whatever exterior you prefer to project and whatever you simply hammer out more frivolously on a keyboard based on it.

Just let time pass I say....it is ultimately the best objective disinfectant for emotional bias and cruder BS there is that envelops every mind existing in whatever moment to whatever degree.

@VCheng

 

[kumata]

And I think I already clarified most of the growth will come in provinces which are sparesely populated. Punjab is already seeing decline. In India on the other hand most of ther growth will take place in areas like Bihar where already there is little space to even take a pee.

Again Sir,

Your preconceived notion doesn't let you see the real picture which made u think that bihar do not have space to Pee.

Fact remains that population growth is being contributed majorly by Muslims in india. As per 2011 census , Muslims are growing at break neck pace..while Hindus have declined recently.

All other religions are at par and maintaining consistent replaceable rates almost.

I know people think wiki is source of truth ..

Religion in India - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think i should leave the discussion here given the situation.

 

[kumata]

The average of 2.1 currently has a variance somewhat hidden at first glance

Important thing overall is to get to the consistent balance of TFR = 2.1 as consistent everywhere as possible....and not be too high or too low in various populated spots.

i.e bring states like UP and Bihar from their TFR of 3 close to 2.1 ...and bring the states in south and east that are now approaching 1.6 (or even lower)...steadily closer to 2.1.

This is overall the chart for countries like India, Bangladesh and Iran that have managed macrodemographic transition reasonably.

i.e they should continue to try escape both extremes like seen atrociously at one end in the area (Pakistan and Afghanistan with TFRs in 3.5 area and barely reducing just like their infant mortality rates) and PRC on the other (with serious demographic problem of other variety esp. relative to wealth accumulation during the bulge period projected this century).

The population pyramid effects (and projected populations, compositions and relative stability) can be found here:

Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100

WORLD - 2019

www.populationpyramid.net

One can see which country will still be struggling to stabilize at 400 million people even by 2100....because of its gross mismanagement and proclivities in this area.

@VCheng

That TFR close is 2.1 is majorly contributed by Hindus . In Muslims that figure goes to almost 3.5. With UCC and population control bill, we hope to bring at replaceable levels& control the unhindered population growth which is eating away all our resources and sucking them into subsidy.

Another problem is peoples reluctance to record the births with govt. There are many with 3 wife's & 4 or 5 kids from each living on streets but are not part of any records. Ultimately, they get involved in petty crimes and contribute nothing to nation building.

 

[xizhimen]

India is proposing a 2-child policy to keep its population under control, and it includes cash benefits for couples who opt for voluntary sterilization
Cheryl Teh
Sun, July 11, 2021, 9:57 PM

India is taking a leaf from China's population playbook with a proposed two-child policy in two states.

The two-child policy in Uttar Pradesh would give cash benefits to couples who opt for voluntary sterilization.

Meanwhile, those who choose to have more than two kids could have their government subsidies taken away.


On World Population Day on July 11, India proposed a series of fresh population control measures reminiscent of China's two-child policy.

The slate of proposed measures was announced in two states - Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state in India that is home to more than 240 million people, and Assam, in northeastern India.

While the country has not yet adopted China's now-overturned policy of fining couples for having more than two children, these statewide proposals are an attempt to control its fast-increasing population numbers. India is currently expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country by 2027, per a 2019 UN report. UNICEF estimates that around 25 million children are born every year in India, accounting for a fifth of the world's annual births.

And much of this booming population growth is happening in Uttar Pradesh, which - if it were considered a country - would be the world's fifth-largest nation, just behind the US and Indonesia.

Uttar Pradesh's proposed new approach to managing its population will span the next decade. Titled the "New Population Policy," the proposed measures would reward those who stick to having two kids, and punish those who have more than two.

Most drastically, Uttar Pradesh's draft bill on population management states that couples with two children who opt for voluntary sterilization would get incentives. If one member of the couple goes under the knife for voluntary sterilization, the family could get a range of benefits including tax rebates, subsidies for home purchases, and receiving cash back on their power and utility bills.

At the same time, the proposed Uttar Pradesh policy regulations would bar those who have more than two children from receiving any government subsidies, applying for jobs in the local government, and running for political office in local elections, per the Times of India.

"Increasing population is the root of major problems including inequality prevailing in the society. Population control is the primary condition for the establishment of an advanced society," wrote Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath on Twitter on July 11.

"Let us on World Population Day take a pledge to make ourselves and the society aware of the problems arising from the increasing population," he added.

The draft bill on population control in Uttar Pradesh is currently open for public consultation until July 19. From there, the bill will be moved to the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly to be read and debated before it can be written into law.

In Assam, where 36 million people live, the state's chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma announced on Sunday that a "population stabilization" roadmap will be developed by the state government. Sarma earlier hinted on June 18 that he would introduce plans to make having two children the norm, by withholding subsidies and other benefits to those who choose to have more than two kids. Assam in 2016 recorded a fertility rate of 2.3 children per family, per statistics from the Indian government.

"Population explosion in some parts of Assam has posed a real threat to the development of the state," Sarma said on Sunday to the Hindustan Times.

India's population control plans come just as China relaxes its two-child limit.

On May 31, China announced a landmark policy shift to allow couples to have three children in an attempt at raising its flagging birth rate. The change comes five years after the country's 2016 decision to scrap its one-child policy and raise the quota to two-kids-per-family.

India is proposing a 2-child policy to keep its population under control, and it includes cash benefits for couples who opt for voluntary sterilization

Uttar Pradesh, the country's most populous state, proposed a detailed slate of policies to discourage couples from having more than two kids.

www.yahoo.com

 

[VCheng]

A population 6 times less should have 6 times less output, rather than 50 or 100 times less or worse.

Not necessarily. A linear correlation is not really a good measure to compare very different countries.

Just let time pass I say....it is ultimately the best objective disinfectant for emotional bias and cruder BS there is that envelops every mind existing in whatever moment to whatever degree.

Exactly. Facts will speak for themselves, eventually, given that demographic changes take decades to reveal themselves. What's the rush?

 

[Nilgiri]

That TFR close is 2.1 is majorly contributed by Hindus . In Muslims that figure goes to almost 3.5. With UCC and population control bill, we hope to bring at replaceable levels& control the unhindered population growth which is eating away all our resources and sucking them into subsidy.

Another problem is peoples reluctance to record the births with govt. There are many with 3 wife's & 4 or 5 kids from each living on streets but are not part of any records. Ultimately, they get involved in petty crimes and contribute nothing to nation building.

Their (Muslims in India) TFR, pop growth rate et al. is also declining though (if you look at what it was in the pre 80s, 80s, 90s, 2000s and recent decade etc).

I say that looking at the trends for TFR among Muslims in the South, East (west Bengal), some parts of the west (MH, GJ) and also Bangladesh where their TFR is at replacement level or below (largely in line with the other communities of these areas)

There is a socioeconomic lag factor in play for this community in the northern states....thus this decade will see a further improvement and socioeconomic programs focused on family planning will continue to play their part.

Southern states likewise should keep family planning ideal TFR goal at around 2.1 as well...having it at 1.6 etc for too long will not be conducive in long term looking at other countries that have had it here for extended period now.

 

[kumata]

Their (Muslims in India) TFR, pop growth rate et al. is also declining though (if you look at what it was in the pre 80s, 80s, 90s, 2000s and recent decade etc).

Yeah but at almost double of hindu's , there is a concentrated effort from few to replicate more. IMO, only solution is to educate women and give them more rights but than majority of muslims do not beleive in following the law. sharia is supreme , Kooran is supreme ... they are already getting subsidies in lakhs of crores funded by tax payers , who again majorly are hindus given that majority of madrassa educated do not get high end paying jobs. So Jaziya continues in subtle form.

I say that looking at the trends for TFR among Muslims in the South, East (west Bengal), some parts of the west (MH, GJ) and also Bangladesh where their TFR is at replacement level or below (largely in line with the other communities of these areas)

Well, they are already in the verge of being majority. Assam & now shortly bengal wil be a classic example of "demographic change" promoted by state .

Fact remains that muslims do not intend to send their kids of normal schools where they get educated in science and maths. majority ended up in Madrassa's reading and learning Urdu which givem them no way to get out of poverty. End result, they end up being butchers, puncture man or at best, sew clothes for others.. what ever remains , take it to petty crimes & spend time going in/out of jail.

 

[Nilgiri]

Yeah but at almost double of hindu's , there is a concentrated effort from few to replicate more. IMO, only solution is to educate women and give them more rights but than majority of muslims do not beleive in following the law. sharia is supreme , Kooran is supreme ... they are already getting subsidies in lakhs of crores funded by tax payers , who again majorly are hindus given that majority of madrassa educated do not get high end paying jobs. So Jaziya continues in subtle form.



Well, they are already in the verge of being majority. Assam & now shortly bengal wil be a classic example of "demographic change" promoted by state .

Fact remains that muslims do not intend to send their kids of normal schools where they get educated in science and maths. majority ended up in Madrassa's reading and learning Urdu which givem them no way to get out of poverty. End result, they end up being butchers, puncture man or at best, sew clothes for others.. what ever remains , take it to petty crimes & spend time going in/out of jail.

NFHS (among other sources) paints quite different picture.

Overall replacement fertility rate for Hindus in India is reached right around now (2016-2021) and for Muslims it will be about 10 - 15 years later in 2026-2031.

The peak difference between the two in TFR (3.3 and 4.4 respectively i.e diff of 1.1) was around the early 90s....30 years ago.

As Hindu TFR stabilises now around the 2 range, Muslim TFR continues to drop at the pace Hindu one did when it was at the same level....the overall lag period between the two now is about 10 years.

From NFHS:

From census TFR estimate By state (and mind you this is 2001 and 2011,.... 2021 census results coming around 2023-2024 which will show further validation):

In fact taking snapshot of Hindu population being roughly 80% of population and TFR of 2.....one can also calculate what the TFR of Muslims (who make up about 14% now) would have to be and also remain at a long time to become 50% in say 30 years....and what the total population of India would have to be at that point given Hindu population stabilisation at around 1.1 billion people.

You can calculate/estimate it and tell me, but its nowhere near what it actually is now (i.e Muslim TFR of 2.6 in the last NFHS and would have dropped below 2.5 by now).

I also suggest dropping your accusatory and stereotype tone on a whole community. They only detract from any point you are trying to make.