Indonesia Indonesian Air Force, Tentara Nasional Indonesia-Angkatan Udara (TNI-AU)

[Gary]

I think this thread is a good a thread as any to bring up fiscal matter for all these programs (airforce being the most visible, but also navy and army have big ticket plans I have seen).

Up to about 2018 - 2019, the Indonesian military budget was around 7 - 8 billion dollar level (by SIPRI standardisation basis) per year.

Now it has increased in 2020 - 2021 to around 9 billion dollars per year:

Indonesia announces strong increase in 2021 defence budget

Indonesia has announced a strong increase in its annual defence budget despite rising economic challenges related to Covid-19. The government has indicated that the...

www.janes.com

What do people see as the budget (or I guess budget ramp) thats needed for this large airforce, C4I, navy etc expansion this decade?

Will Indonesia for example quickly push it to 2% of GDP level spending?

Last year there are plans to increase defence budget to 1.5% of GDP.

 

[Nilgiri]

Last year there are plans to increase defence budget to 1.5% of GDP.

Do we know roughly how soon to this level? I believe right now its approaching 1% level.

So 1.5% level by like 2025 or sooner or later?

 

[Parry Brima]

I don't think the consortium could deliver Typhoons any sooner than Dassault or Boeing unless you're getting used Typhoons from their existing inventory. Also, maintenance of Typhoons is ridiculously expensive and it would make more sense going for additional Typhoons instead of Rafales or Eagles to get the benefit of volume if your first lot happens to be Typhoons. Also, training your pilots and ground crew on multiple aircrafts, the entire logistical nightmare would bring down availability rates.

Getting 15 ex-Austrian T1 Typhoon pretty much opening up the door to get all used T1 and T2 from those 4 countries. Airbus will make sure of that.

So far the project to revitalize T1 Typhoon only coming from RAF as they want to covert 2-seats T1 variant into spare parts (worth $50 mil per aircraft).

 

[HellFireIndo]

Arya Bantah Pemberitaan Media Jepang yang Sebut RI akan Beli Pesawat Tempur F-15 dan F-18 dari AS - Tribunnews.com

Klarifikasi ini merujuk dengan pemberitaan media asal Jepang Nikkei yang memuat detil jumlah kesepakatan.

m.tribunnews.com

So what is the truth then?

 

[Madokafc]

Nikkei only stated there is verbal agreement from US about the availability of F15 and F18 in the market for TNI AU. And it is still up to Indonesian to follow their inquiries or not. They are clearly no mentioned about deal or whatsoever, and only giving hints about Indonesia budget for future procurement. This Arya are he is in command of his English or not?

And what Nikkei had published is in line with what Lembaga Keris had convey even before the article published.

 

[Umigami]

From nikkei:

Indonesia has been pushing the U.S. to sell it F-15, F-18 and F-35 fighter jets, but finally agreed on only two models as the third could take up to 10 years to deliver, Pedrason said. The F-15s and F-18s are manufactured by U.S. aerospace companies McDonnell Douglas and Boeing.

Reporter is Indonesian. I want to watch that webinar if it's available publicly.

 

[Madokafc]

From nikkei:

Indonesia has been pushing the U.S. to sell it F-15, F-18 and F-35 fighter jets, but finally agreed on only two models as the third could take up to 10 years to deliver, Pedrason said. The F-15s and F-18s are manufactured by U.S. aerospace companies McDonnell Douglas and Boeing.

Reporter is Indonesian. I want to watch that webinar if it's available publicly.

Lembaga keris who member attend the webinar, had giving their clue a day earlier

 

[trishna_amrta]

So what is the truth then?

 

[trishna_amrta]

Do we know roughly how soon to this level? I believe right now its approaching 1% level.

So 1.5% level by like 2025 or sooner or later?

I believe WHEN all those new fighter & ships came there will be an inevitable rise in defence budget. Although reaching 2% is a possibility, but IF it happens it will be merely for a year and related to bulk procurement

 

[Nilgiri]

I believe WHEN all those new fighter & ships came there will be an inevitable rise in defence budget. Although reaching 2% is a possibility, but IF it happens it will be merely for a year and related to bulk procurement

Yeah I mean more for sustained level....sustained average capex and opex. Is there Indonesian white paper etc for its overall projection for this decade etc?

Sometimes loans etc help to smooth this out too.

I notice Indonesian forex reserve is about 135 billion, its an ok level for its GDP...but its not great (given Indonesia has lot of things already to do with this to compete)....so I would assume some loans will be leveraged on it to deal with strong impulse capex.

But its underlying ramp trend that Indonesian govt will need to plan out well this decade.

 

[Madokafc]

Yeah I mean more for sustained level....sustained average capex and opex. Is there Indonesian white paper etc for its overall projection for this decade etc?

Sometimes loans etc help to smooth this out too.

I notice Indonesian forex reserve is about 135 billion, its an ok level for its GDP...but its not great (given Indonesia has lot of things already to do with this to compete)....so I would assume some loans will be leveraged on it to deal with strong impulse capex.

But its underlying ramp trend that Indonesian govt will need to plan out well this decade.

There is great lethargic among decision maker to increasing Indonesia annual defense budget so greatly without clear justification. Soekarno era always being an example when the government let the people eat grass as his government from 1961 toward 1965 roughly spend at least 40 percentage of state budget for military spending and Indonesia economy took the toll from wanton unbalanced defense spending. The current level of spending is around four to five percentage of state budget, 136 trillion rupiah from 2800 trillion rupiah state budget.

I am always suspecting during peacetime era as current, the highest ceilling caps any government willing to spend for defense budget actually is around 10 to 15 percentage of state budget without incurring major hickup politically and still had leisure to boost Development budget. If at current level of spending is around 270 to 400 trillion rupiah or around 18 to 27 Billion US Dollar. But still they are needed major reason to increase defense spending

 

[trishna_amrta]

Yeah I mean more for sustained level....sustained average capex and opex. Is there Indonesian white paper etc for its overall projection for this decade etc?

Indonesia policymaker : Paper is white..... eeech white and paper what...??? What is white paper? All paper is white right...?

Sometimes loans etc help to smooth this out too.

Every procurement where financed trough loan. And we also don't need to worry about fuel cost (particularly Jet A1) because in practice Jet A1 is GRATIS

I notice Indonesian forex reserve is about 135 billion, its an ok level for its GDP...but its not great (given Indonesia has lot of things already to do with this to compete)....so I would assume some loans will be leveraged on it to deal with strong impulse capex.

Those FX reserve is also based on loan. But don't tell that to any Indonesian, they most likely won't understand such things anyway.

But its underlying ramp trend that Indonesian govt will need to plan out well this decade.

Indonesia policymaker : Yes there are planning (plural) for comparative studies abroad (read : vacation). And there are also planning for how to spend the budget and to request for more budget in next fiscal year.

 

[R4duga]

IWI Tavor tested for kopaskhas .

https://www.facebook.com/lembagakeris/posts/3231136030328051

 

[trishna_amrta]

IWI Tavor tested for kopaskhas .

https://www.facebook.com/lembagakeris/posts/3231136030328051

They all get Tavor Face afterward. I don't understand Why TF do they even consider Tavor in the first place

 

[Gary]

Is there a chance we could have another big ticket clandestine military cooperation with Israel? I know they have spare F-16

 

[Madokafc]

Is there a chance we could have another big ticket clandestine military cooperation with Israel? I know they have spare F-16

For what? US even give nod for their F18 and F15 and there is plethora of F16 legacy anywhere

 

[Van Kravchenko]

They all get Tavor Face afterward. I don't understand Why TF do they even consider Tavor in the first place

Well they got plenty of it in the special unit tho. Moreover the way to get thoose rifle are little spine away. Enter Indonesia via third party country.

Other than that it must be
"Never forget that your weapon was made by the lowest bidder"

 

[Gary]

For what? US even give nod for their F18 and F15 and there is plethora of F16 legacy anywhere

Ummm A better stop gap than EF2000s?

 

[R4duga]

Do we know roughly how soon to this level? I believe right now its approaching 1% level.

So 1.5% level by like 2025 or sooner or later?

we're still at 0,8% level

 

[Umigami]

Still no information which version F15 or F18 they offer to us?
How many US fighters we could expect?
(Hoping for more than a skadron of F15 is too much I guess)