Indonesia Indonesian Air Force, Tentara Nasional Indonesia-Angkatan Udara (TNI-AU)

[Parry Brima]

First of all if $9.3 bil for pinjaman luar negri can be consider high compare to before covid standard. The average was prolly around $4 bil something (before covid). Now what if that $9.3 bil was part of a bigger budget scheme which can be achieved if certain economic parameter is met so ibu SM can give a nod?

What I hear is there is this 4 year total budget scheme (that 9.3 is only around 1/4-nya) that has been proposed but under yearly review or disesuaikan dgn keuangan negara. There is this lobby and study about this thing which hasnt been settled. At first I dont believe we can afford $9.3 bil, but seems like it has been informally ok by most. If that 4 year total budget goes thru and materialized in the next 4 years then our Nation definetly transform her muscle into regional power that any other countries must reckon with. This will definetly change the region balance of power, it will be interesting to see how our neighbor react to it.

Now there is still a lobby, talk, discussion going on regarding the assets type tho MoD aim is somehow still fix on certain type. This happen due to the next years budget uncertainty (depend on certain economic parameter by kemenkeu?). They need to formulate the assets purchase and mitigate the risk if somehow the total budget collapse.

Thats what I been hearing, and the rest is my personal analyze. Perhaps @Madokafc can give us a bit of enlightment.

You're saying we have allocated $37 bil in total? That's almost twice the $20 bil number that's been circling around. A welcoming surprise.

 

[trishna_amrta]

Alman twits more like a Grumpy old man talking about his waist acting in the morning. That's utterly meaningless with all of the track record he had shown so far.

His tweeting for traffic revenue. Doesn't matter if the tweet make sense or not, as long there is traffic came in. Which is why I always avoid to clicking any dubious tweeter link in this forum. What worse is, he actually in this forum, albeit very shy of revealing himself for some reason.

This would be a repeat of massive buying just like what happened in 2010-2014 period, multi years financing package, installed payment for soft loan for a decade or more payment scheme.

How long the financing tenor for the next big procurements?

 

[trishna_amrta]

You're saying we have allocated $37 bil in total? That's almost twice the $20 bil number that's been circling around. A welcoming surprise.

How & where you came to that $37 B figure

 

[Parry Brima]

How & where you came to that $37 B figure

Quoting the message :

"What I hear is there is this 4 year total budget scheme (that 9.3 is only around 1/4-nya)......"

 

[Gundala]

Latest statement from Army Aviation say they were want to get rid of Mil mi 17v5 from inventory.
Since has crash issue.

But back then, a news about some procurement of Mil mi 17 pop up at middle of 2020, dunno if its a joke.

No, they want to get rid Mi--35 which if I recall correctly 2 of them is reaching the end of her life cycle.
Mi 17 is currently still the heaviest transporter they have and some of them is not that old so I think they are going to do some heavy maintenance for all of them.

Mi 17 (5 units if Im not mistaken) contract has been signed sometime in 2019 or 2018 but not yet effective, but we all know whats been holding all Russians procurement

You're saying we have allocated $37 bil in total? That's almost twice the $20 bil number that's been circling around. A welcoming surprise.

No, Im saying we are trying to allocate $40 bil over the period of 2021-2024 which can can be disburse no more than $10 bil yearly (abit out of reach, uncertain) but subject to certain economic condition (yearly review). Now those $20 bil (2021-2024) we have been hearing is suppose to be disbursed $5 bil yearly (affordable and most likely to happen) but also under certain economic condition and subject to be reviewed yearly as well. Thats why it surprises me if those $9.3 bill goes thru, but I hear the amount for upcoming year is $10 bil so its inline with that $40 bil condition. Nothing is certain at this moment so lets see what happen next, so far it is looking good.

Question is why $40 bil? is $20 bil enough?

• $20 bil will get us forward but not far. With around 24 hawk going to meet the end of their life cycle, mrtt, heavy lift chopper, van spejk class replacement and other old naval assets replacement we might end up adding only few more fighter/warships in quantity with some life extension refurbished assets. This wont be enough to deter upcoming North challange
• $40 bil will get us far forward and definetly can deter upcoming Northern challange. But there are risks involve as the economic uncertainty might push the budget intended way down. Now this create more complexity in the procurement process as the manufacture calculate the price/ToT/etc base on number ordered not base on future expectation. This is where the F16V purchase resurfaced as it might be a safe and affordable to be purchased in 32+ numbers and wont hurt that much if somehow the total budget fell thru. Rafale and Eagle need infrastructure/training thus making the purchase expensive (unit price also higher compare to Viper) and carry higher risk if there is uncertainty in the budget area.

It aint easy for kemenhan, kemenkeu and bappenas to formulate the right plan as there is also geopolitical calculation that need to be accounted for.

I agree with madokafc said that this year they will be trying to get the MEF 2 & 3 program going as it is already in the blue book. They just need to refocusing/realocating some budget to accomodate the priority list. But then again I hear they got $10 bil of pln this year, so who knows...

Thats the overview of our process, thats why we have been hearing some changes, contradicting news in the media. In reality only RI1 who can make the final say if those lobby/discussion getting a deadlock. So lets just wait and see what is going to happen next while seruput our coffee

 

[Parry Brima]

No, Im saying we are trying to allocate $40 bil over the period of 2021-2024 which can can be disburse no more than $10 bil yearly (abit out of reach, uncertain) but subject to certain economic condition (yearly review). Now those $20 bil (2021-2024) we have been hearing is suppose to be disbursed $5 bil yearly (affordable and most likely to happen) but also under certain economic condition and subject to be reviewed yearly as well. Thats why it surprises me if those $9.3 bill goes thru, but I hear the amount for upcoming year is $10 bil so its inline with that $40 bil condition. Nothing is certain at this moment so lets see what happen next, so far it is looking good.

Question is why $40 bil? is $20 bil enough?

• $20 bil will get us forward but not far. With around 24 hawk going to meet the end of their life cycle, mrtt, heavy lift chopper, van spejk class replacement and other old naval assets replacement we might end up adding only few more fighter/warships in quantity with some life extension refurbished assets. This wont be enough to deter upcoming North challange
• $40 bil will get us far forward and definetly can deter upcoming Northern challange. But there are risks involve as the economic uncertainty might push the budget intended way down. Now this create more complexity in the procurement process as the manufacture calculate the price/ToT/etc base on number ordered not base on future expectation. This is where the F16V purchase resurfaced as it might be a safe and affordable to be purchased in 32+ numbers and wont hurt that much if somehow the total budget fell thru. Rafale and Eagle need infrastructure/training thus making the purchase expensive (unit price also higher compare to Viper) and carry higher risk if there is uncertainty in the budget area.

It aint easy for kemenhan, kemenkeu and bappenas to formulate the right plan as there is also geopolitical calculation that need to be accounted for.

I agree with madokafc said that this year they will be trying to get the MEF 2 & 3 program going as it is already in the blue book. They just need to refocusing/realocating some budget to accomodate the priority list. But then again I hear they got $10 bil of pln this year, so who knows...

Thats the overview of our process, thats why we have been hearing some changes, contradicting news in the media. In reality only RI1 who can make the final say if those lobby/discussion getting a deadlock. So lets just wait and see what is going to happen next while seruput our coffee

If what you've been hearing is right that we'll approve $10 bil PLN this year, then it's bloody marvelous. If we're willing to commit as much in this pandemic year, then $40 bil total until 2024 is almost a sure thing.

 

[Madokafc]

His tweeting for traffic revenue. Doesn't matter if the tweet make sense or not, as long there is traffic came in. Which is why I always avoid to clicking any dubious tweeter link in this forum. What worse is, he actually in this forum, albeit very shy of revealing himself for some reason.



How long the financing tenor for the next big procurements?

Some Dutch Bank offer of more than 20 years soft loan if we are taking their, and there is also from France- Qatari facing France UAE finance institution, in which they had proposed their solution to handle several projects.

 

[NEKO]

Some Dutch Bank offer of more than 20 years soft loan if we are taking their, and there is also from France- Qatari facing France UAE finance institution, in which they had proposed their solution to handle several projects.

Does French related PLN need us to buy French products?

 

[Madokafc]

Does French related PLN need us to buy French products?

What else?

 

[Madokafc]

Picture above is credit to Bams Bramble

 

[Van Kravchenko]

That, was a nice Indonesian Ass.

 

[Umigami]

 

[trishna_amrta]

View attachment 17003

Amateur... amateur.... not to mention noobish

Selama batu nisan belum terukir, masih ada kesempatan

 

[trishna_amrta]

View attachment 17003

OMG.. OMG.. look it that its the Typhoon

 

[Parry Brima]

View attachment 17003

Forumers say MoD visit to UK is related to Arrowhead 140. I say it's all about Typhoon.

15 from Austria + 24 from RAF.

(I wish)

 

[Umigami]

Well I don't think typhoon is a bad fighter but put tranche 3 into the mix if EX or Rafale got canceled please!!!

 

[trishna_amrta]

Well I don't think typhoon is a bad fighter but put tranche 3 into the mix if EX or Rafale got canceled please!!!

At this junction, I say both Rafale & Typhoon are the most likely WINNER. The F-15EX still doubtful, more so with the current administration

 

[Madokafc]

If Indonesia ever seriously to consider and starting to begin negotiation especially for the Hercules, Hawk, Sentinel and Typhoon that's can alleviate Indonesia Air Force lack of number for everything. Including LIFT type Aircraft and cargo transport aircraft

 

[Captain Wales]

If Indonesia ever seriously to consider and starting to begin negotiation especially for the Hercules, Hawk, Sentinel and Typhoon that's can alleviate Indonesia Air Force lack of number for everything. Including LIFT type Aircraft and cargo transport aircraft

The plan is for Typhoon going to be scrap and used as parts, the sentinel also going to be scrap (also we need US permission if we want to buy that, it got alot of sensitive equipment).
hawk t1 is to old for us (even older than our hawk) and they just got grounded yesterday because one Royal Navy Hawk crash during FOST training (both pilot survived).

The only one we probably can get is C130

 

[Madokafc]