TR Industry, Science and Technology

[IC3M@N FX]

It is curious if China will sell the eUV machines that they are developing which will be distrupting to the microprocessor market.

If this scenario were to actually occur, it would undoubtedly bring about fundamental changes.
However, I consider it unlikely that it will come to this: Similar to the US, China pursues a strategy of not giving up its own advantages without receiving significant concessions or strategic benefits in return.

Another scenario seems more likely: Turkey could gain access to EUV lithography machines produced in China from around 2033/34, as these will not more high-end that time.
With this technology, Turkey would be able to manufacture semiconductor structures in the range of 16 to 5 nm by around 2040. However, once this technological level has been reached, further progress will be virtually impossible without highly specialized equipment, extensive know-how, and considerable research capacities.

In principle, both countries (USA & China) would always be 10-15 years ahead of the rest of the world.

Nevertheless, technological backwardness can be compensated for to a certain extent – primarily through smart and efficient chip design. The use of chiplet architectures and scaling to systems with a larger number of cores and integrated edge AI accelerators will enable significant progress to be made in specific areas of application. Such approaches could succeed in reducing the existing lead within five to eight years.

However, it should be noted that the US (Taiwan) – and to a certain extent China – currently have a lead of around 10 to 15 years over the rest of the world in this area. This lead is based not only on advanced manufacturing technology, but also on decades of expertise, a mature ecosystem of specialized professionals, software and tooling infrastructure, and massive investment.

Advances through innovative designs can narrow this gap, but they cannot close it completely on their own. Especially in areas such as energy efficiency, density, and manufacturing quality, such approaches reach their limits without access to the latest manufacturing technologies and the corresponding expertise.

 

[TR_123456]

If this scenario were to actually occur, it would undoubtedly bring about fundamental changes.
However, I consider it unlikely that it will come to this: Similar to the US, China pursues a strategy of not giving up its own advantages without receiving significant concessions or strategic benefits in return.

Another scenario seems more likely: Turkey could gain access to EUV lithography machines produced in China from around 2033/34, as these will not more high-end that time.
With this technology, Turkey would be able to manufacture semiconductor structures in the range of 16 to 5 nm by around 2040. However, once this technological level has been reached, further progress will be virtually impossible without highly specialized equipment, extensive know-how, and considerable research capacities.

In principle, both countries (USA & China) would always be 10-15 years ahead of the rest of the world.

Nevertheless, technological backwardness can be compensated for to a certain extent – primarily through smart and efficient chip design. The use of chiplet architectures and scaling to systems with a larger number of cores and integrated edge AI accelerators will enable significant progress to be made in specific areas of application. Such approaches could succeed in reducing the existing lead within five to eight years.

However, it should be noted that the US (Taiwan) – and to a certain extent China – currently have a lead of around 10 to 15 years over the rest of the world in this area. This lead is based not only on advanced manufacturing technology, but also on decades of expertise, a mature ecosystem of specialized professionals, software and tooling infrastructure, and massive investment.

Advances through innovative designs can narrow this gap, but they cannot close it completely on their own. Especially in areas such as energy efficiency, density, and manufacturing quality, such approaches reach their limits without access to the latest manufacturing technologies and the corresponding expertise.

How is the US the frontrunner when in reality ASML of the Netherlands is by far the most advanced in chip design?

 

[Yasar_TR]

Turkey could gain access to EUV lithography machines produced in China from around 2033/34, as these will not more high-end that time.
With this technology, Turkey would be able to manufacture semiconductor structures in the range of 16 to 5 nm by around 2040. However, once this technological level has been reached, further progress will be virtually impossible without highly specialized equipment, extensive know-how, and considerable research capacities.

Why do you think with blinkers and in two dimensions. Think wide and in 3D.
What you are suggesting is for Turkey to be producing f16s. Not F35/F22 equivalents.
In KAAN we have done the latter.
Increase country’s educational level. Produce more scientists not clergies. Educate masses in the right way towards IT and AI orientated education.
As the saying goes: If there is a will, there is a way.
Who would have believed we would be flying a 5th generation plane? When the program was envisaged officially in 2009 many people laughed at it as being an unattainable goal.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

How is the US the frontrunner when in reality ASML of the Netherlands is by far the most advanced in chip design?

Even if buyers are able to purchase the machines, ASML and the United States ultimately retain control over the technology. This is because operation, maintenance, spare parts, and software updates still depend on ASML — which itself is politically and technologically dependent on the U.S.

What real leverage would ASML or the Dutch government have if they wanted to supply countries like China or Turkey against the will of the U.S.? The Netherlands is neither a military nor a political great power, and the U.S. could easily create massive obstacles — through sanctions, export bans on U.S. technology, or exclusion from the U.S. market.

In practice, it is clear that the U.S. determines access to and control over this key technology. They assert their influence, and the Netherlands follows this line because it is itself highly dependent on the U.S.

I deliberately mentioned the USA as a pioneer and technology owner because that is essentially what it is also have complete control over it.

 

[what]

Why are we talking about Chinese EUV lithography? It's not like we're sanctioned or anything.
But EUV is not all there is, you need billions to get a fab running and even than its not guaranteed success.