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Translated with Google, source: https://babel.ua/texts/90710-minist...oti-i-bahmut-interv-yu-z-oleksiyem-reznikovim
After the «Ramstein» meeting in Brussels you wrote that there will be «increases of the armored fist» and soon it will be possible to implement the plans of Valery. What exactly does this mean and does it mean that in the near future — month, two — Ukraine can start a counteroffensive?
And so it is. Our partners have changed their attitude to this war. The civilized world understands that it is real to defeat Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine. If there are still many human resources in Russia today, the technical — is less. Our partners clearly distinguish between our tactics and the tactics of the Russians. Their tactics — «meatgrinder». Western approach — to preserve the lives of the military. That's why we need powerful armored systems — Marder, Bradley, Stryker — to protect crews, as well as modern tanks, so that we break through the line of defense of the Russians and deploy a counteroffensive.
The training of tank crews involves the coherence of units, in fact it is an assault task. It will take some time. Let's take real terms — up to two months when mechanics know how to drive, gunners — how to shoot, crew commanders — how to give tasks, and equipment — how to serve. We need to set up a system for rapid recovery of equipment right on site, medium — somewhere in Ukraine, and complex — outside it.
That is, for technical reasons, our offensive may begin no earlier than two months?
These are approximate terms. There must be strength and means to implement the plan of Genstab. Second — let's not forget about the weather conditions. For example, in February, the Russians did not work on the so-called « frost general ». They thought it was possible to go on the offensive with wheel equipment. It played on our hands that the soil and swamps never froze. And here the question is — what will spring be like. We are now focusing on not allowing the Russians to successfully go on the offensive. As we will be ready, we will decide when we go to the counteroffensive. Now predict when this will happen — is wrong.
A lot now experts say, that the Russian offensive in the east has already begun. And you said in previous interviews that it's not him yet.
You and I saw a real offensive on February 24, 2022. From all borders, except the western, huge armored and tank columns, with aviation. Today in the east they changed tactics. Use waves by assault units of 10—20 souls maximum. Let's call it «creeping offensive». The Kremlin remains a political dream and a task to — go to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to report to their society that they have fulfilled the tasks of the so-called special military operation.
The other day you wrote, that threats from the sky will get better rebuff. Is it about air defense that partners will give us?
Yes, the partners have committed to increasing the number of air defense systems — those that already exist, but there will be more of them along with missiles. Out of respect for partners, I do not name which ones, because they want to tell themselves. I can say that this will significantly increase the level of protection of our sky. We discussed some systems that do not work for us, but we are learning from them, now we are finalizing technical solutions. It is possible that by February 24, the partners will make certain announcements.
When will we have these systems?
Not ready to answer now. All systems require crew training. Therefore, fulfillment of obligations — minimum month.
It's about Patriot? Because there are ballistic missiles S-300 and S-400, which Russians are very active in on cities near the border and already reached out to Kyiv. So far « catch» nothing to us?
Patriot is still just what you know — one system from the Americans, one — from the Germans, launchers and rockets from the Netherlands. But we know the countries where Patriot still is, and we have negotiations with them. The president at his level, the head of the OP and the prime minister at his own level, I — at the level of defense ministers. I am optimistic that Patriot will continue to be.
There are now two topics that are actively discussing the — big offensive of the Russians and their plans to actively use aviation. American officials and Media. On the one hand, this plan looks illogical, because the Russians wanted to capture the sky from the very beginning — and could not. Now that we have received a lot of air defense, it will be much harder to do. On the other hand, no one expects logic from the Russians. What do you think about this threat, are we ready for it?
In two parts, — the first you will immediately understand, and the second I will think about how to formulate so as not to reveal all the plans. The threat of Russian offensive and aviation should not be shared. These are two components of one. Classical military science teaches — if you plan to go on the offensive, you have to do three things: force your opponent to stop and go to the defense; to begin to rule in the air, so as not to allow him to go into a counteroffensive; you have to destroy all its reserves, logistics chains, stocks — and this also requires aviation. Therefore, when we say that the Russians are preparing for the offensive, it is also necessary about aviation.
Now I will try to hint why our partners and the Western press are talking about this. U our wish list «do Santa» was a large list in which we dreamed of artillery caliber 155 mm, modern volley fire systems, including HIMARS, about anti-ship complexes, armored vehicles of a serious level, finally Patriot, combat modern tanks, aircraft. Today, this ist list left with aircraft and long-range defeat systems, more than 200 kilometers. We either have the rest or we already have a political decision. Even in the ― fleet in the UK, we already have two mine minesweepers with a Ukrainian crew and flag. This is our common object. We lowered the first corvette to the water ADA class in Turkey — there will be a total of six.
There are modern planes that can see other enemy planes or missiles on the radar, and also have missiles. We convince partners that in addition to air defense systems, we need more aviation platforms to stop Iranian drones, shoot down cruise missiles and prevent the enemy from dominating our skies when he goes on the offensive. And still provide for our troops when we are ready to go to the counteroffensive. That is, today the talk of our needs for aircraft has moved to another plane: there is no need to be afraid that this may be another level of escalation, because it is done by the Russians.
We understood the hint. Questions from our editorial chat for « teapots»: when they say that Russians can use aviation and make a breakthrough deep into Ukraine, how far can they depend — is it about 20 or 300 kilometers?
I'm not a pilot, although I have 163 parachute jumps since serving in the army. Despite the fact that we have beaten a lot, the Russians still have many aircraft and propellers. However, aviation — is primarily professional pilots. Training a pilot of the class «sniper» — is years. I think we have already destroyed most of their flight elite. Now flies mainly « young ». How far will they be able to depend? Questions in skill, night or day, in pairs or not, maneuvers and technical condition. It also depends on the mass of their arrival, and how many air missiles will be fired on this day or hour.
That is, if 100 and 20 aircraft fly ― these are completely different forecasts.
Of course. Conditionally speaking, for one purpose — two missiles. If 20 aircraft — 40 missiles, 100 aircraft — 200. There are risks, but it should not be taken in such a way that everything is gone. Our partners are aware of this, so such an active position, especially in Lloyd Austin. He is very supportive of Ukraine and says [partners]: « Time, time and time again! Accelerate the transfer of weapons especially air defense systems».
At «Ramstein», you showed reporters a handkerchief depicting a fighter and said you were waiting for planes from the sky. The media wrote a lot about this move with a handkerchief. If you go down to earth, where should they be expected in the first place?
Honestly, it was an impromptu. In Kyiv, I received information from the [ service] protocol that ties and suits are this time mandatory. Because at the previous meeting they allowed smart casual, and we were in our skinny. This handkerchief has long been in my collection, but rarely matched in color. And here he looked and decided to take her as a mascot and a symbol.
What plane to be? We need to start from which aircraft platform the most partners have. They have the most spare parts and everything you need for maintenance. Which platforms will be able to take off and sit at our airfields, which systems we will master faster. Which systems allow you to see no less than you see Su-35 the Russians, and which missiles can strike at a distance of 150 km and beyond.
One country says: « I'm ready, but let the other partners give a» too. That is, the contribution must be common, as was the case with tanks. Our Air Force Commander, General [Nikola] Oleshchuk says the approach is this: optimal for us would be Falcon-F-16, the second is Gripen, there are British, French and German systems. But there is no final decision yet, it is being worked out by experts. My assumption — base will be some one type of aircraft, and there will be several others in support of it. As with tanks: we have a basic Leopard, and near them will serve Abrams, Challenger, French AMX-10 RC.
Lloyd Austin hinted that the United States never prevented Poland from handing us over to us MiG-29 or can Poland provide them to us?
MiGi is not only in Poland, but in almost all countries of the former socialist bloc. Of course, we will take MiGi, but this does not give a qualitative transition of Ukrainian air forces to a new platform. We fly to MiGah. Their radar sees a plus or minus 60 km, and the missiles hit 30 km. For comparison — Su-35 in orcs sees 150 km and shoots 120. So, if we get a little MiG, we will, of course, thank and take. But I'm not fighting for MiGi.
In your interview VVC you said that with the F-16 there are nuances, because our airfields are not ready for them. What is the situation now?
The F-16 has a lower landing than our aircraft. But we have already found a technical solution, so the warning has been lifted.
How many planes do we need for a successful counteroffensive?
I would say this: the more they give, we will take everything. Airplanes do not fly one, it all depends on the task.
Is it hundreds, a thousand?
Thousands definitely not. Speaking of a realistic plan... For example, France — is an advanced country, has its own Mirage fighters — generation, similar to our MiGam. And they made a new modern one Rafale. But it's not thousands...
Of course, we will fight for half a hundred first, and then — for a hundred. It is realistic if we had a hundred aircraft with different performance capabilities ― it would be a good case. And it is realistic, because each country can give 10—15 pieces, and it will not reduce their defense capabilities.
How long will we have to struggle for planes?
As for the planes, I think they are ripe. Some countries are already talking about a willingness to train our crews. And when they are ready to teach, it means that technical issues remain. My feeling ― is a matter of months. And when I say «months», it's one or two.
Let's talk about our Western partners. US and British intelligence has warned that the Russian counteroffensive will be at the end of the winter. The same spoke Valery Involved. Then they were statements by various leaders, that the last month of winter — the beginning of spring will be crucial for the future of Ukraine. On the other hand, — weapons The West will give us no earlier than the end of spring, that is, after the decisive battle. It seems that the States are afraid of our victory or rather — defeat of Russia.
How to formulate correctly... In deciding on the transfer of weapons to us, each country takes into account its internal agenda, population sentiment, political currents, the approach of elections and so on. In the civilized world, many people support us and want victory. But there are also enough those who want to trade with Russia, do business as usual, buy their gas, oil, sell them their things. Therefore, there are those who restrain the support of Ukraine.
Even our American friends have difficulties — there are congressmen and senators of certain political forces who do not encourage much support for Ukraine and talk about it openly on all airwaves. Those who support us need to have an internal discussion and make sure that the use of money [their ] taxpayers in Ukraine is in their interests.
After the Second World War, more precisely, after the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, came the era of pacifism, won by the respective political parties. They did not care about their armed forces — reduced stockpiles. There are NATO countries that are not ready for this war. I already know this for sure.
In Europe?
Yes, that's why they sometimes solve questions slowly, because they don't know how to admit that they don't have everything. «Ramstein» is cool in that countries have already given their tasks CPC. From the point of view of the world, now is the time of military economy.
At the Munich Security Conference, the French already said, that accelerated their military production, so theirs CAESAR we will get faster.
They give us 12 CAESARs that have ordered for themselves. The Danes, who ordered 17 pieces for themselves, also decided to give them to us. We will probably be the second country after France in terms of the number of CAESAR artillery systems.
Unclear things are happening around Bakhmut. Through the American media, in particular through Bloomberg, USA hinted, that we should leave the city, then there were direct statements. ZSU is gradually losing ground, but, according to our information, they are ready to stay there until the last. Why do we and the Allies have different assessments of this operation?
These are military assessments, not political factors. Our military clearly understands that Bakhmut — is a fortress that grinds the Russian resource. The biggest daily losses for the Russians are in the directions of Bakhmut, Lyman, all and part. They use assault practice in groups and leave bodies. And again and again. Our military understands that the more we grind, the less opportunities they have to go on a full offensive.
When we communicate with Lloyd Austin, and Valery Involved — with Mark Millie, they ask questions and ask to explain our tactics. The same was the case in Brussels, and we, together with our Deputy Commander-in-Chief Eugene Moysyuk, once again showed everything on the maps and explained. They listened to us and understood us.
And here is a certain question: who understands a little more? They have no experience with anyone, they whisper to me: «We love when your military comes to us to study. Because we learn from them including ». This is win-win, knowledge sharing.
But there is still the question of resources. NATO's Gensek Jens Stoltenberg says the war in Ukraine consumes huge amounts of ammunition and depletes Allied supplies. For example, there is a shortage of artillery shells of all calibers. How long will the allies be able to provide for us?
It is absolutely true that Stontelberg says this, but it continues: if you do not want to have to use your supplies to repel Russians at home, give everything from your warehouses to Ukrainians, that they restrain them. And you make new orders.
That is why today Germany applied to its military-industrial complex for ammunition. The French, Slovakia, Czech Republic — all those who have the appropriate plants have already submitted orders. Americans too. I know for sure even the amount of ammunition a year ahead that is ordered for us. I have two columns: one — what I buy under contracts, ordered at different companies in different countries. The second — is what will come as international technical assistance. Therefore, it is truly a war of resources — of Russians and their allies and the modern civilized world.
And how much in the column where it is ordered, can you say? At least to say, is enough or not.
No I can't. Well, how can you say during the war, enough or not? Never enough.
Ask differently, are you happy with the number of ammunition that is now in your plate?
I have no right to be satisfied because I need a lot. I would be happy if my strategic reserves were laid. And they are crazy. For example, if you count the number of small arms in the caliber of 5.45 (this machine gun) by book standards, we have to buy and put 64 billion rounds in stock. Given that eight billion — is the population of the entire planet Earth. In money it is $27 billion. Only cartridges. Let me remind you that the US defense budget — is about $800 billion. These are unrealistic stories, but they are written in standards. Can I be happy? No I can't. Because then I need 10 US budgets and 10 «supermarkets », where you can buy so many cartridges.
Further. In total, all European plants can produce 600,000 152-caliber ammunition per year. So the situation is like that.
In November, «Ucroboronprom» started produce artillery shells of this caliber. Can we make them a lot?
So far, the numbers I've seen don't have to be happy.
How much do we spend on this ammunition?
Until recently, the Russians poured up to 60,000 shots a day on our heads. Now they have reduced to 20 thousand different calibers. That is, in a month it is as much as the whole of Europe produces in a year. The Russians are still pulling ammunition from Soviet supplies. So Ben Wallace says: «Don't even think about copying their tactics. We give you high-precision weapons so you can make one shot instead of 10 or 12. That's the task ».
Let's then talk about high-precision long-range weapons. Recently, States announced that they are giving us GLSDB rocket bombs [text about them here]. This, to be honest, seems bullying, because this weapon does not yet exist in principle. It has never been used by any army in the world, it takes a long time to wait. At the same time, the United States has warehouses ATACMS, which would be 300 kilometers and which we have been asking for for a long time.
I understand your outrage, but I will try to protect my partners.
Someone would have.
Who, if not me. So sometimes our partners in Europe need the consent of « older brother » to make a decision. « The older brother of » for everyone is the United States, everyone understands that. Therefore, the decision on Leopard, for example, the German government finally made in favor of Ukraine after the British announced that they were giving Challenger, the French — light tanks AMX-10 and, most importantly, the Americans — Abrams. And the Abrams themselves are few, there will be no more, but we don't need more. It is a symbol that a non-German tank will be the first on the battlefield in Ukraine. This is a sensitive issue for the Germans.
The same with rockets. Their truth is really not, but this is a signal to partners « do not be afraid to give what you have ». Of course, our partners react painfully to any hint that somewhere, God forbid, we will hit their weapons on the territory of rf. And let's have no illusions, they have their contacts with the Kremlin. Everyone wants to end this war and then coexist in some way with a weakened Russia. So to give something so that someone in our country psycho and longed for what he dreams of — no, you can't even talk about it. When some of our politicians slap on the air « and we will guess » — the worst can't be thought of.
When can we get GLSDB? Experts say two options, they depend on production processes: spring or the end of this year.
I do not predict. There is a time that is defined in the order of the plant, now I do not remember. But again: it was fundamental to me that this decision was made and they announced it. Because in parallel there are other negotiations with other partners about other interesting things. And they will be earlier ( smiling ).
Okay, we understand that something will happen, but you are not ready to say yet. But still, is ATACMS a chance to get this year? Or something that would be 300 km.
Not at all that it will be ATACMS. There are other long-range missiles. Yes, orcs are now hiding behind 120—150 km, and something needs to be reached — and we will reach out.
In this half-year?
So. I can't say more.
One high-level official did not say under the record that «Ucroboronprom» is now, to put it mildly, an ineffective structure. He loses heavily to the business in producing the same UAV one long-range drone with a range of 1,000 kilometers, which in fact still does not exist. And immediately I will make a remark for readers that with the head «Ukroboronprom » Yuri Gusev [can be read here about him more ] you have a long-standing friendship.
Yes, we are old acquaintances, passed together the Aspen object «Responsible leadership». I am convinced that after the victory, our independence will be based on the domestic defense industry — and the private and public sectors. I support everything that ours does [Oleg] Korostilov , ours «Moans», «Corsars», « Neptunes» and everything else. We have signed a contract for the production of Ukrainian [ self-propelled howitzer] « Bogdans» 155 caliber. The contract is, I was in production, watching, all super, handsome.
Who is the manufacturer?
Our Kramator plant (heavy machine tool ).
How many pieces is the contract for?
I can't say it's not public. Let's say so, the first divisions will be this year, in the spring.
Returning to «Ucroboronprom». This is not a plant, this is a management system, and there are problems. They did not complete the reform because the open phase of the war had begun. They do everything they can with wheels. For example, we repair and restore our equipment — tanks, BMP, BTR. Not only that, the tanks we brought from partners from Poland, the Czech Republic and so on, they were not ready for battle. They, for example, did not have dynamic protection. It was able to be set up by specialists «Ukroboronprom » — and the tanks quickly went to war.
Would I like them to make more shells? So. Do they have time to increase production in such volumes? Not yet. What is their problem? Money. To date, all programs to be implemented «Ucroboronprom» — missile and missile programs — are billions. But there is a nuance. As a defense minister, I cannot be an investor. I can't invest in production in advance. I buy the finished product because I need it on the battlefield now. And if tomorrow comes to me «Ucroboronprom» and says: «Give me money in advance, I will develop production», then I will not give. I will say: « Go to the bank, take a loan, work as a private business». I do not ask for money in advance for private companies that make the same UAVs. But since companies «Ucroboronprom » have a lot of loans and different financial stories in the past,they are from the point of view of banking culture — unreliable borrower, they cannot be credited, standards are not missed. The question arises: where do they get the money to put the line, to transport production to a safer place, ideally to bury themselves underground? This is a hypertask for Yuri Gusev and his team — to find a solution on how to finance them to become competitive with private companies.
That is, if we summarize, our state defense complex approached the great war completely unprepared? And can business work more efficiently than a large state concern?
Our private business could hardly work in this area until a full-scale war, because everything there was very regulated. When the team and I saw this and realized that there are regulations that can be simplified, we simplified them at the level of regulations and internal orders, taking up arms and so on, it all went faster.
Ukrainians raised money on sea drones, but something we haven't drowned Russian ships in a long time. Do we have something to do?
Yes, but at a certain distance. They know this distance and the boundary does not cross — it is 200 kilometers from the shoreline. They estimate that they have five missile carriers and three submarines. We know eight goals.
Is there a prospect that we will be able to get to them soon?
We are working very fruitfully on this.
After the «Ramstein» meeting in Brussels you wrote that there will be «increases of the armored fist» and soon it will be possible to implement the plans of Valery. What exactly does this mean and does it mean that in the near future — month, two — Ukraine can start a counteroffensive?
And so it is. Our partners have changed their attitude to this war. The civilized world understands that it is real to defeat Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine. If there are still many human resources in Russia today, the technical — is less. Our partners clearly distinguish between our tactics and the tactics of the Russians. Their tactics — «meatgrinder». Western approach — to preserve the lives of the military. That's why we need powerful armored systems — Marder, Bradley, Stryker — to protect crews, as well as modern tanks, so that we break through the line of defense of the Russians and deploy a counteroffensive.
The training of tank crews involves the coherence of units, in fact it is an assault task. It will take some time. Let's take real terms — up to two months when mechanics know how to drive, gunners — how to shoot, crew commanders — how to give tasks, and equipment — how to serve. We need to set up a system for rapid recovery of equipment right on site, medium — somewhere in Ukraine, and complex — outside it.
That is, for technical reasons, our offensive may begin no earlier than two months?
These are approximate terms. There must be strength and means to implement the plan of Genstab. Second — let's not forget about the weather conditions. For example, in February, the Russians did not work on the so-called « frost general ». They thought it was possible to go on the offensive with wheel equipment. It played on our hands that the soil and swamps never froze. And here the question is — what will spring be like. We are now focusing on not allowing the Russians to successfully go on the offensive. As we will be ready, we will decide when we go to the counteroffensive. Now predict when this will happen — is wrong.
A lot now experts say, that the Russian offensive in the east has already begun. And you said in previous interviews that it's not him yet.
You and I saw a real offensive on February 24, 2022. From all borders, except the western, huge armored and tank columns, with aviation. Today in the east they changed tactics. Use waves by assault units of 10—20 souls maximum. Let's call it «creeping offensive». The Kremlin remains a political dream and a task to — go to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to report to their society that they have fulfilled the tasks of the so-called special military operation.
The other day you wrote, that threats from the sky will get better rebuff. Is it about air defense that partners will give us?
Yes, the partners have committed to increasing the number of air defense systems — those that already exist, but there will be more of them along with missiles. Out of respect for partners, I do not name which ones, because they want to tell themselves. I can say that this will significantly increase the level of protection of our sky. We discussed some systems that do not work for us, but we are learning from them, now we are finalizing technical solutions. It is possible that by February 24, the partners will make certain announcements.
When will we have these systems?
Not ready to answer now. All systems require crew training. Therefore, fulfillment of obligations — minimum month.
It's about Patriot? Because there are ballistic missiles S-300 and S-400, which Russians are very active in on cities near the border and already reached out to Kyiv. So far « catch» nothing to us?
Patriot is still just what you know — one system from the Americans, one — from the Germans, launchers and rockets from the Netherlands. But we know the countries where Patriot still is, and we have negotiations with them. The president at his level, the head of the OP and the prime minister at his own level, I — at the level of defense ministers. I am optimistic that Patriot will continue to be.
There are now two topics that are actively discussing the — big offensive of the Russians and their plans to actively use aviation. American officials and Media. On the one hand, this plan looks illogical, because the Russians wanted to capture the sky from the very beginning — and could not. Now that we have received a lot of air defense, it will be much harder to do. On the other hand, no one expects logic from the Russians. What do you think about this threat, are we ready for it?
In two parts, — the first you will immediately understand, and the second I will think about how to formulate so as not to reveal all the plans. The threat of Russian offensive and aviation should not be shared. These are two components of one. Classical military science teaches — if you plan to go on the offensive, you have to do three things: force your opponent to stop and go to the defense; to begin to rule in the air, so as not to allow him to go into a counteroffensive; you have to destroy all its reserves, logistics chains, stocks — and this also requires aviation. Therefore, when we say that the Russians are preparing for the offensive, it is also necessary about aviation.
Now I will try to hint why our partners and the Western press are talking about this. U our wish list «do Santa» was a large list in which we dreamed of artillery caliber 155 mm, modern volley fire systems, including HIMARS, about anti-ship complexes, armored vehicles of a serious level, finally Patriot, combat modern tanks, aircraft. Today, this ist list left with aircraft and long-range defeat systems, more than 200 kilometers. We either have the rest or we already have a political decision. Even in the ― fleet in the UK, we already have two mine minesweepers with a Ukrainian crew and flag. This is our common object. We lowered the first corvette to the water ADA class in Turkey — there will be a total of six.
There are modern planes that can see other enemy planes or missiles on the radar, and also have missiles. We convince partners that in addition to air defense systems, we need more aviation platforms to stop Iranian drones, shoot down cruise missiles and prevent the enemy from dominating our skies when he goes on the offensive. And still provide for our troops when we are ready to go to the counteroffensive. That is, today the talk of our needs for aircraft has moved to another plane: there is no need to be afraid that this may be another level of escalation, because it is done by the Russians.
We understood the hint. Questions from our editorial chat for « teapots»: when they say that Russians can use aviation and make a breakthrough deep into Ukraine, how far can they depend — is it about 20 or 300 kilometers?
I'm not a pilot, although I have 163 parachute jumps since serving in the army. Despite the fact that we have beaten a lot, the Russians still have many aircraft and propellers. However, aviation — is primarily professional pilots. Training a pilot of the class «sniper» — is years. I think we have already destroyed most of their flight elite. Now flies mainly « young ». How far will they be able to depend? Questions in skill, night or day, in pairs or not, maneuvers and technical condition. It also depends on the mass of their arrival, and how many air missiles will be fired on this day or hour.
That is, if 100 and 20 aircraft fly ― these are completely different forecasts.
Of course. Conditionally speaking, for one purpose — two missiles. If 20 aircraft — 40 missiles, 100 aircraft — 200. There are risks, but it should not be taken in such a way that everything is gone. Our partners are aware of this, so such an active position, especially in Lloyd Austin. He is very supportive of Ukraine and says [partners]: « Time, time and time again! Accelerate the transfer of weapons especially air defense systems».
At «Ramstein», you showed reporters a handkerchief depicting a fighter and said you were waiting for planes from the sky. The media wrote a lot about this move with a handkerchief. If you go down to earth, where should they be expected in the first place?
Honestly, it was an impromptu. In Kyiv, I received information from the [ service] protocol that ties and suits are this time mandatory. Because at the previous meeting they allowed smart casual, and we were in our skinny. This handkerchief has long been in my collection, but rarely matched in color. And here he looked and decided to take her as a mascot and a symbol.
What plane to be? We need to start from which aircraft platform the most partners have. They have the most spare parts and everything you need for maintenance. Which platforms will be able to take off and sit at our airfields, which systems we will master faster. Which systems allow you to see no less than you see Su-35 the Russians, and which missiles can strike at a distance of 150 km and beyond.
One country says: « I'm ready, but let the other partners give a» too. That is, the contribution must be common, as was the case with tanks. Our Air Force Commander, General [Nikola] Oleshchuk says the approach is this: optimal for us would be Falcon-F-16, the second is Gripen, there are British, French and German systems. But there is no final decision yet, it is being worked out by experts. My assumption — base will be some one type of aircraft, and there will be several others in support of it. As with tanks: we have a basic Leopard, and near them will serve Abrams, Challenger, French AMX-10 RC.
Lloyd Austin hinted that the United States never prevented Poland from handing us over to us MiG-29 or can Poland provide them to us?
MiGi is not only in Poland, but in almost all countries of the former socialist bloc. Of course, we will take MiGi, but this does not give a qualitative transition of Ukrainian air forces to a new platform. We fly to MiGah. Their radar sees a plus or minus 60 km, and the missiles hit 30 km. For comparison — Su-35 in orcs sees 150 km and shoots 120. So, if we get a little MiG, we will, of course, thank and take. But I'm not fighting for MiGi.
In your interview VVC you said that with the F-16 there are nuances, because our airfields are not ready for them. What is the situation now?
The F-16 has a lower landing than our aircraft. But we have already found a technical solution, so the warning has been lifted.
How many planes do we need for a successful counteroffensive?
I would say this: the more they give, we will take everything. Airplanes do not fly one, it all depends on the task.
Is it hundreds, a thousand?
Thousands definitely not. Speaking of a realistic plan... For example, France — is an advanced country, has its own Mirage fighters — generation, similar to our MiGam. And they made a new modern one Rafale. But it's not thousands...
Of course, we will fight for half a hundred first, and then — for a hundred. It is realistic if we had a hundred aircraft with different performance capabilities ― it would be a good case. And it is realistic, because each country can give 10—15 pieces, and it will not reduce their defense capabilities.
How long will we have to struggle for planes?
As for the planes, I think they are ripe. Some countries are already talking about a willingness to train our crews. And when they are ready to teach, it means that technical issues remain. My feeling ― is a matter of months. And when I say «months», it's one or two.
Let's talk about our Western partners. US and British intelligence has warned that the Russian counteroffensive will be at the end of the winter. The same spoke Valery Involved. Then they were statements by various leaders, that the last month of winter — the beginning of spring will be crucial for the future of Ukraine. On the other hand, — weapons The West will give us no earlier than the end of spring, that is, after the decisive battle. It seems that the States are afraid of our victory or rather — defeat of Russia.
How to formulate correctly... In deciding on the transfer of weapons to us, each country takes into account its internal agenda, population sentiment, political currents, the approach of elections and so on. In the civilized world, many people support us and want victory. But there are also enough those who want to trade with Russia, do business as usual, buy their gas, oil, sell them their things. Therefore, there are those who restrain the support of Ukraine.
Even our American friends have difficulties — there are congressmen and senators of certain political forces who do not encourage much support for Ukraine and talk about it openly on all airwaves. Those who support us need to have an internal discussion and make sure that the use of money [their ] taxpayers in Ukraine is in their interests.
After the Second World War, more precisely, after the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, came the era of pacifism, won by the respective political parties. They did not care about their armed forces — reduced stockpiles. There are NATO countries that are not ready for this war. I already know this for sure.
In Europe?
Yes, that's why they sometimes solve questions slowly, because they don't know how to admit that they don't have everything. «Ramstein» is cool in that countries have already given their tasks CPC. From the point of view of the world, now is the time of military economy.
At the Munich Security Conference, the French already said, that accelerated their military production, so theirs CAESAR we will get faster.
They give us 12 CAESARs that have ordered for themselves. The Danes, who ordered 17 pieces for themselves, also decided to give them to us. We will probably be the second country after France in terms of the number of CAESAR artillery systems.
Unclear things are happening around Bakhmut. Through the American media, in particular through Bloomberg, USA hinted, that we should leave the city, then there were direct statements. ZSU is gradually losing ground, but, according to our information, they are ready to stay there until the last. Why do we and the Allies have different assessments of this operation?
These are military assessments, not political factors. Our military clearly understands that Bakhmut — is a fortress that grinds the Russian resource. The biggest daily losses for the Russians are in the directions of Bakhmut, Lyman, all and part. They use assault practice in groups and leave bodies. And again and again. Our military understands that the more we grind, the less opportunities they have to go on a full offensive.
When we communicate with Lloyd Austin, and Valery Involved — with Mark Millie, they ask questions and ask to explain our tactics. The same was the case in Brussels, and we, together with our Deputy Commander-in-Chief Eugene Moysyuk, once again showed everything on the maps and explained. They listened to us and understood us.
And here is a certain question: who understands a little more? They have no experience with anyone, they whisper to me: «We love when your military comes to us to study. Because we learn from them including ». This is win-win, knowledge sharing.
But there is still the question of resources. NATO's Gensek Jens Stoltenberg says the war in Ukraine consumes huge amounts of ammunition and depletes Allied supplies. For example, there is a shortage of artillery shells of all calibers. How long will the allies be able to provide for us?
It is absolutely true that Stontelberg says this, but it continues: if you do not want to have to use your supplies to repel Russians at home, give everything from your warehouses to Ukrainians, that they restrain them. And you make new orders.
That is why today Germany applied to its military-industrial complex for ammunition. The French, Slovakia, Czech Republic — all those who have the appropriate plants have already submitted orders. Americans too. I know for sure even the amount of ammunition a year ahead that is ordered for us. I have two columns: one — what I buy under contracts, ordered at different companies in different countries. The second — is what will come as international technical assistance. Therefore, it is truly a war of resources — of Russians and their allies and the modern civilized world.
And how much in the column where it is ordered, can you say? At least to say, is enough or not.
No I can't. Well, how can you say during the war, enough or not? Never enough.
Ask differently, are you happy with the number of ammunition that is now in your plate?
I have no right to be satisfied because I need a lot. I would be happy if my strategic reserves were laid. And they are crazy. For example, if you count the number of small arms in the caliber of 5.45 (this machine gun) by book standards, we have to buy and put 64 billion rounds in stock. Given that eight billion — is the population of the entire planet Earth. In money it is $27 billion. Only cartridges. Let me remind you that the US defense budget — is about $800 billion. These are unrealistic stories, but they are written in standards. Can I be happy? No I can't. Because then I need 10 US budgets and 10 «supermarkets », where you can buy so many cartridges.
Further. In total, all European plants can produce 600,000 152-caliber ammunition per year. So the situation is like that.
In November, «Ucroboronprom» started produce artillery shells of this caliber. Can we make them a lot?
So far, the numbers I've seen don't have to be happy.
How much do we spend on this ammunition?
Until recently, the Russians poured up to 60,000 shots a day on our heads. Now they have reduced to 20 thousand different calibers. That is, in a month it is as much as the whole of Europe produces in a year. The Russians are still pulling ammunition from Soviet supplies. So Ben Wallace says: «Don't even think about copying their tactics. We give you high-precision weapons so you can make one shot instead of 10 or 12. That's the task ».
Let's then talk about high-precision long-range weapons. Recently, States announced that they are giving us GLSDB rocket bombs [text about them here]. This, to be honest, seems bullying, because this weapon does not yet exist in principle. It has never been used by any army in the world, it takes a long time to wait. At the same time, the United States has warehouses ATACMS, which would be 300 kilometers and which we have been asking for for a long time.
I understand your outrage, but I will try to protect my partners.
Someone would have.
Who, if not me. So sometimes our partners in Europe need the consent of « older brother » to make a decision. « The older brother of » for everyone is the United States, everyone understands that. Therefore, the decision on Leopard, for example, the German government finally made in favor of Ukraine after the British announced that they were giving Challenger, the French — light tanks AMX-10 and, most importantly, the Americans — Abrams. And the Abrams themselves are few, there will be no more, but we don't need more. It is a symbol that a non-German tank will be the first on the battlefield in Ukraine. This is a sensitive issue for the Germans.
The same with rockets. Their truth is really not, but this is a signal to partners « do not be afraid to give what you have ». Of course, our partners react painfully to any hint that somewhere, God forbid, we will hit their weapons on the territory of rf. And let's have no illusions, they have their contacts with the Kremlin. Everyone wants to end this war and then coexist in some way with a weakened Russia. So to give something so that someone in our country psycho and longed for what he dreams of — no, you can't even talk about it. When some of our politicians slap on the air « and we will guess » — the worst can't be thought of.
When can we get GLSDB? Experts say two options, they depend on production processes: spring or the end of this year.
I do not predict. There is a time that is defined in the order of the plant, now I do not remember. But again: it was fundamental to me that this decision was made and they announced it. Because in parallel there are other negotiations with other partners about other interesting things. And they will be earlier ( smiling ).
Okay, we understand that something will happen, but you are not ready to say yet. But still, is ATACMS a chance to get this year? Or something that would be 300 km.
Not at all that it will be ATACMS. There are other long-range missiles. Yes, orcs are now hiding behind 120—150 km, and something needs to be reached — and we will reach out.
In this half-year?
So. I can't say more.
One high-level official did not say under the record that «Ucroboronprom» is now, to put it mildly, an ineffective structure. He loses heavily to the business in producing the same UAV one long-range drone with a range of 1,000 kilometers, which in fact still does not exist. And immediately I will make a remark for readers that with the head «Ukroboronprom » Yuri Gusev [can be read here about him more ] you have a long-standing friendship.
Yes, we are old acquaintances, passed together the Aspen object «Responsible leadership». I am convinced that after the victory, our independence will be based on the domestic defense industry — and the private and public sectors. I support everything that ours does [Oleg] Korostilov , ours «Moans», «Corsars», « Neptunes» and everything else. We have signed a contract for the production of Ukrainian [ self-propelled howitzer] « Bogdans» 155 caliber. The contract is, I was in production, watching, all super, handsome.
Who is the manufacturer?
Our Kramator plant (heavy machine tool ).
How many pieces is the contract for?
I can't say it's not public. Let's say so, the first divisions will be this year, in the spring.
Returning to «Ucroboronprom». This is not a plant, this is a management system, and there are problems. They did not complete the reform because the open phase of the war had begun. They do everything they can with wheels. For example, we repair and restore our equipment — tanks, BMP, BTR. Not only that, the tanks we brought from partners from Poland, the Czech Republic and so on, they were not ready for battle. They, for example, did not have dynamic protection. It was able to be set up by specialists «Ukroboronprom » — and the tanks quickly went to war.
Would I like them to make more shells? So. Do they have time to increase production in such volumes? Not yet. What is their problem? Money. To date, all programs to be implemented «Ucroboronprom» — missile and missile programs — are billions. But there is a nuance. As a defense minister, I cannot be an investor. I can't invest in production in advance. I buy the finished product because I need it on the battlefield now. And if tomorrow comes to me «Ucroboronprom» and says: «Give me money in advance, I will develop production», then I will not give. I will say: « Go to the bank, take a loan, work as a private business». I do not ask for money in advance for private companies that make the same UAVs. But since companies «Ucroboronprom » have a lot of loans and different financial stories in the past,they are from the point of view of banking culture — unreliable borrower, they cannot be credited, standards are not missed. The question arises: where do they get the money to put the line, to transport production to a safer place, ideally to bury themselves underground? This is a hypertask for Yuri Gusev and his team — to find a solution on how to finance them to become competitive with private companies.
That is, if we summarize, our state defense complex approached the great war completely unprepared? And can business work more efficiently than a large state concern?
Our private business could hardly work in this area until a full-scale war, because everything there was very regulated. When the team and I saw this and realized that there are regulations that can be simplified, we simplified them at the level of regulations and internal orders, taking up arms and so on, it all went faster.
Ukrainians raised money on sea drones, but something we haven't drowned Russian ships in a long time. Do we have something to do?
Yes, but at a certain distance. They know this distance and the boundary does not cross — it is 200 kilometers from the shoreline. They estimate that they have five missile carriers and three submarines. We know eight goals.
Is there a prospect that we will be able to get to them soon?
We are working very fruitfully on this.
