Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Kartal1]

Iraqi Hezbollah sent troops to the Jordan border. Hezbollah leader declared war on Israel yesterday.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715075603739881760

 

[Knowledgeseeker]

I didn't take anything that came out of Jordan or Egypt as anything serious. If a war were to expand it would do so with an unplanned escalation, not by willful consent by Arab states to enter a war they haven't been preparing for.

IF Hezbollah does make good on its promise to open a front in the North, and the Americans do make good on their promise to bombard Hezbollah, that could lead to Hezbollah sister organization in Iraq (particularly) to bombard U.S bases and military installations, particularly in Iraq and Syria, which again in return could lead the Americans not only bombarding the Iraqi PMF, but could lead to military operation to sever the links between Iraq and Lebanon, the M20 highway in Syria.

Blue: America possible move. Green: line of communication between Iraq to Lebanon (sorry for the bad edit)

View attachment 62035

If they decide to do this, then the Americans would rely on a few key airbases, most notably (and closest to the epicenter) is Muwaffaq As-Salti AB in Jordan.

9734+VVF, Al-Mafraq, Jordan

Do this and the militias or even Iran directly could bomb those airbases, dragging those countries into a wider regional war, so if Egypt or Jordan enters a war, it will likely be because they're forced to do so, not because they're so confident in their army.

So far Iran and its proxies are not convincing me. A lot of barking, but little action. I think the aircraft carriers that were sent were deployed as a warning to the whole Middle East, and especially the Arabs.

Israel wants to push the inhabitants of Gaza to Sinai, while Egypt and Jordan refuse such a plan. I don't know where this could lead us, but it could become dirty.

 

[Ryder]

Please stop sharing Jackson Hinkle tweets. It seems many members don't know that he is a Putin-paid shill and Assadist and that he supports Khomeini.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1705982772999798807

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1706342550280327219

He was even in Russia to promote Russia's invasion recently.

His business is conspiracy theories and he is paid to do so, even more so now that twitter pays blue checkmark accounts

His more honest than cnn, reuters and bbc.

Even if his a propagandist for Russia.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715082511393464754

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715083988828664060

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715085803351674964

The US warship off the coast of Yemen destroyed many missiles. Although the target of the missiles is not exactly clear, it is considered that the US warship may have been targeted (CNN Int)

According to US officials, the missiles were fired "north", not towards the ships.

The Houthis started bombing Israel from Yemen.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715089883817996742

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715082511393464754

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715083988828664060

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715085803351674964

The US warship off the coast of Yemen destroyed many missiles. Although the target of the missiles is not exactly clear, it is considered that the US warship may have been targeted (CNN Int)

According to US officials, the missiles were fired "north", not towards the ships.

The Houthis started bombing Israel from Yemen.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715094933676159237

The Pentagon says cruise missiles and kamikaze UAVs were sent from Yemen. The distance between Yemen and Israel is approximately 1800 km, which proves that the Houthis have enough inventory to hit Israel.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715096236796096769

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715091911160074488

It is reported that long-range ballistic missile launchers belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have begun to be moved to the western borders of the country.

Iran is preparing to enter full-fledged war.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715091911160074488

It is reported that long-range ballistic missile launchers belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have begun to be moved to the western borders of the country.

Iran is preparing to enter full-fledged war.

If this is the case, the reason Hamas keeps firing rockets is to use up supplies of the iron Dome.

It's going to fail, as the US is about to airdrop more supplies to Israel.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715103452777386008

 

[Saithan]

I hope they have a plan with all these attacks besides saturation. Taking out oilfields are nice, but taking out PAC system and such would be even better.

 

[Kartal1]

Things are also complicated in Syria... Iranian-backed militia groups have now begun to target American soldiers with guided missiles.

It is reported that 2 American soldiers were killed in the northern countryside of Deir ez-Zor, Syria.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715111161706819855

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715113554422956327

 

[Gary]

So my prediction is going to be correct here ?

 

[Bogeyman]

Gaza Exodus To Egypt Would Risk West Bank Displacement To Jordan: Sisi​

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned Wednesday of the dangers of "forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt", saying it would set a precedent for "the displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan".

Sisi, who has rejected calls to allow large numbers of refugees from Gaza into Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, said the goal of "the Palestinian state" would be "eradicated".


"If it came to it, I could call on the Egyptian people to come out and express their rejection of this proposal, and you would see millions of Egyptians" in the street, he told reporters.

Gaza Exodus To Egypt Would Risk West Bank Displacement To Jordan: Sisi

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned Wednesday of the dangers of "forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt", saying it would set a precedent for "the displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan".

www.barrons.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715121814060286367

"Let our lives and blood be sacrificed, Palestine."
Sisi did what he said. And millions took to the streets in Egypt.

 

[Kartal1]

So my prediction is going to be correct here ?

Which one was that?

 

[Foulgrim]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715091911160074488

It is reported that long-range ballistic missile launchers belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have begun to be moved to the western borders of the country.

Iran is preparing to enter full-fledged war.

Unfortunately for Israel, the time has come. Time is up, an Iranian official said. May all this end in the creation of a Palestinian state.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715127239128305933

 

[Gary]

Which one was that?

At least we know now that:

Combat has spread beyond Gaza, to Lebanon and Iraq (and even Yemen)
The U.S has promised to defend itself from these attacks (not yet)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715114479820640697

I didn't take anything that came out of Jordan or Egypt as anything serious. If a war were to expand it would do so with an unplanned escalation, not by willful consent by Arab states to enter a war they haven't been preparing for.

IF Hezbollah does make good on its promise to open a front in the North, and the Americans do make good on their promise to bombard Hezbollah, that could lead to Hezbollah sister organization in Iraq (particularly) to bombard U.S bases and military installations, particularly in Iraq and Syria, which again in return could lead the Americans not only bombarding the Iraqi PMF, but could lead to military operation to sever the links between Iraq and Lebanon, the M20 highway in Syria.

Blue: America possible move. Green: line of communication between Iraq to Lebanon (sorry for the bad edit)

View attachment 62035

If they decide to do this, then the Americans would rely on a few key airbases, most notably (and closest to the epicenter) is Muwaffaq As-Salti AB in Jordan.

9734+VVF, Al-Mafraq, Jordan

Do this and the militias or even Iran directly could bomb those airbases, dragging those countries into a wider regional war, so if Egypt or Jordan enters a war, it will likely be because they're forced to do so, not because they're so confident in their army.

The situation is more brittle than you might think, and something that Erdogan couldn't cope, I believe.

See the map here?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1713383100838039568

That's what the Ford CSG's eye and ear are in the Eastern Mediterranean right now, they could pick movements all the way to Western Iraq. We know that the 2 CSGs the U.S. Navy stationed there is a direct response to a "third party" which is unmistakeably Hezbollah/Iran.

I doubt Hezbollah will enter the war in significant means, but if they do and they're increasingly signaling so, you will find the theater of war expand from Gaza all the way to Iran, because Iranian proxies extend from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq...with direct links to Iran.

If the U.S wants to cripple Hezbollah they would do so by simultaneously engaging their sister organization in Iraq as well, the PMFs of Iraq. And cut any line of communication from Iran through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

In return, the Iranian faction could target U.S. positions in Syria, particularly the Tanf border crossing base which looks like an Island in areas controlled by the Iranian faction.

In retaliation, the U.S could fly sorties either from the 2 carrier strike group or from allied Arab states like Jordan (Muwaffaq As-Salti AFB), Saudi Arabia (Prince Sultan AFB). But this could prove a dilemma because of the emotional state in the Arab world in regards of their kinsmen in Palestine, putting the Arab monarchs in these states in limbo to give clearance for the operation.

A U.S. attack emanating from Arab states could also trigger the long-Iranian threat of raining missiles at those airbases, further expanding the chaos.

Also, if the situation compels, the U.S. could find ways to drag NATO into this, article V is of course only activated if the sovereign land of member countries are attacked, but I believe there's some way to circumvent this. Diego Garcia which is officially a sovereign UK territory hosting U.S troops will be in the crosshairs as well, and this could trigger article V. Which means war with Iran.

If NATO article V is activated, Turkiye will be compelled to participate in the conflict as well, which means your cities and air bases will now be targets of Iranian missiles, in retaliation your warplanes (and NATO's) would sortie to Iran.

This is not something within Erdogan's power to stop.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1714896240117473396