Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Gary]

An Eilat deprived of traffic means an Eliat that deprive its citizens of work, hezbollah in the north has done quite good job to basically turn the entire northern settlers into refugees, adding another town or two in the south deprived of economic opportunity is way to go.

Told you so

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1740688833849549041

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741164445177360830

What the hell is that? Has China started arming Hamas?
Or is Hamas buying Chinese weapons on the black market?

@Gary @Afif @Kartal1 @NEKO

 

[Kartal1]

T

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741164445177360830

What the hell is that? Has China started arming Hamas?
Or is Hamas buying Chinese weapons on the black market?

@Gary @Afif @Kartal1 @NEKO

The Chinese Type 56 is one of the most common AK variants used by paramilitary groups in MENA. It is also one of the most commonly used AK variants in Hamas. I don't think China directly sold weapons to Hamas, but instead they probably got them earlier from the black market.

Interesting facts: Among weapons seen in the hands of Hamas fighters is also the AK-103. This variant is used as a status weapon (cultural thing among many groups in the MENA and beyond). They are known to be originating from the old Gaddafi stocks in Libya. After the Libyan civil war broke out many weapons from the stocks of Gaddafi fell in the hand of weapon traffickers and were sold all around the region. Another interesting fact is that among the weapons smuggled to Gaza from the old Gaddafi stocks is also the FN2000.

Hamas fighters with AK-103 and FN2000.

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741164445177360830

What the hell is that? Has China started arming Hamas?
Or is Hamas buying Chinese weapons on the black market?

@Gary @Afif @Kartal1 @NEKO

I've read the post and the only "massive" thing I could conclude from reading it is the amount of bullshit they wrote.

If it's that massive, they'll come up with 10000000 pictures of the supposed Chinese weapons and try to blackmail China for aid compensation (lol).

As other members have pointed out the only likely Chinese weapons that Hamas could have it's hands on in quantity is the type-56 AK rifle which is plenty in the Middle East.

In fact the Type-56 is more plenty than even the AK-47 model 1 or the AK-74.

The North Koreans prolly is the bigger arms source to Hamas than China , as their Bulsae-2 ATGM has been spotted many times before.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741200803065381026

 

[NEKO]

Hamas got no manpads? Only RPG?
They've been ground pounded from the air non-stop without able to counter attack.

Stinger Manpads managed to affect greatly the Soviet - Afghan war in the past.

I've read the post and the only "massive" thing I could conclude from reading it is the amount of bullshit they wrote.

If it's that massive, they'll come up with 10000000 pictures of the supposed Chinese weapons and try to blackmail China for aid compensation (lol).

As other members have pointed out the only likely Chinese weapons that Hamas could have it's hands on in quantity is the type-56 AK rifle which is plenty in the Middle East.

In fact the Type-56 is more plenty than even the AK-47 model 1 or the AK-74.

The North Koreans prolly is the bigger arms source to Hamas than China , as their Bulsae-2 ATGM has been spotted many times before.

Well China is siding with Palestine, so is normal to make some propaganda about China.

Yoooo... China is also quite good at propaganda department, would be interesting to see if China use their keyboard warrior or little pink against Nazisrael.

 

[Gary]

Hamas got no manpads? Only RPG?
They've been ground pounded from the air non-stop without able to counter attack.

They have Iglas prolly smuggled from the black market, but even then I don't think Igla is a threat against IDF sophisticated self-defense system onboard their aircrafts.

With the limited resources they have, it is better to invest in more RPGs and IEDs. The more IDF infantry dead in Gaza, the less enthusiastic the Israeli public support going forward.

 

[Gary]

Hamas made a good choice by putting their resources into mass producing the tandem-85 and Yassin-105 + anti-tank stick IED.

Although to be fair, I really hope they invest more in the production of the anti-personnel Thermobs TBG-7V rounds which would increase the number of deaths from the IDF, especially from the tight-grouped IDF inside buildings.

There also seems to be very little in NVG equipment, most of the videos coming out of Gaza are daylight actions.

 

[NEKO]

Hamas made a good choice by putting their resources into mass producing the tandem-85 and Yassin-105 + anti-tank stick IED.

Although to be fair, I really hope they invest more in the production of the anti-personnel Thermobs TBG-7V rounds which would increase the number of deaths from the IDF, especially from the tight-grouped IDF inside buildings.

There also seems to be very little in NVG equipment, most of the videos coming out of Gaza are daylight actions.

But, does they have enough of it and also other ammunition?
They are effectively under siege and blockade.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Hamas got no manpads? Only RPG?
They've been ground pounded from the air non-stop without able to counter attack.

Stinger Manpads managed to affect greatly the Soviet - Afghan war in the past.

Gaza has been nearly entirely reduced to total shit. Much of it has been entirely depopulated. If you watch the Israelis as soon as take some land they send their construction vehicles around to destroy and remove all buildings debris. To make sure that land will remain under Israeli control. Nothing for any Arab to return to.

Not having manpads reminds me of syrian rebels who also were never given man pads. Sometimes i think its all just a plot to make sure the "real, not the western controlled" islamists get completely destroyed. I used to watch the countless videos of Assads helicopters dropping barrel bombs and wondered why Erdogan never supplied manpads, lots of guns, but nothing to deal with the air. Basically condemning the rebels to getting obliterated, yet when they looked like they had actually got the upper hand and could go on to win the war, Russian air power came in and then Isis came about completely dividing the resistance and delegitimising the entire rebellion. Since no sane person on earth looked at the backward filthy head choppers and thought they were a good idea. I guess maybe AK party and their most degenerate of supporters thought they were a good idea, but 99% of the civilised world realised they were terrible news.

Provoke them to start a fight, but make sure that the advantage is always massively in the favour of the side you want to win. Hamas creates a stupid attack, then Isreal floods in and destroys everything.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741381969936834951

 

[Gary]

But, does they have enough of it and also other ammunition?
They are effectively under siege and blockade.

It's up for debate, but if you ask me, they should have plenty.

Hamas is surprisingly good at smuggling weapons, some of the most common weapons after the Type-56 AK is none other than the Menusar (shortened Colt 503) that they smuggled in quantity from the IDF, together with the Matador rocket launcher.

M72 + Matador, a few more M72 has also been captured from the IDF in the ongoing war

So if they could smuggle all that stuff from mortal enemy israel, I suggest they can smuggle more from Egypt, which while at the top level is clearly having animosity with Hamas (being affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood), at the bottom, they could rely on the Egyptian low ranking troops which I believe has been their main supplier of arms in addition to the traditional black market dealer. Low-paid soldiers are surprisingly willing to sell weapons to their foes, as can be seen in this picture where OPM brandished their rifles which are open secret to be sourced from Indonesian low-paid soldiers and police.



OPM Pindad SS-1 and Norinco AK-2000P which could only be sourced from none other than Indonesian army and police arsenal

Most of Hamas's domestic weaponries are made from readily available ingredients (sugar, fertilizer, etc) so they're still good to go for many more months.

Back during the Mosul campaign, ISIS readily make thousands of home-crafted rocket launchers, some even with in-house explosive penetrator design

I believe Hamas's subterranean weapons workshop deep inside those tunnels is more protected than the surface weapons workshop of ISIS during the battle for Mosul + I suspect they have stored the necessary ingredients to keep producing even in war time.

Another indicator to "guess" how much longer that Hamas will be supplied with anti tank rocket is this article from 2009

Egypt's Role in Gaza Arms Smuggling

Flickr/Creative Commons/apdk The intricate network of tunnels connecting the Gaza Strip with Egypt remains the lifeline of Hamas, allowing it to build up its weapons arsenal and indiscriminately fire rockets into Israel. Some sources estimate that as many as 800 tunnels crisscross the border...

www.aei.org

from September 2005 through December 2008, that number increased drastically: Israeli intelligence sources estimate that 250 tons of explosives, 4,000 RPGs, and 1,800 rockets crossed the border during that span.​

Since then a lot has changed, in 2011 Gaddafi Jammahirriya finally fell, and so has the locks of his massive arsenal which included AK-103 that @Kartal1 previously mentioned in addition to rare F2000 rifle and the IGLA-S MANPADS.


Hamas gunmen with F2000s and Ak-103. All ex-Jamahiriya stock

and I'm sure as well many ex-Libyan army RPGs finds its way to Gaza through Egypt.

So that + Hamas own production, should be good for a long protracted urban war

 

[Gary]

It's up for debate, but if you ask me, they should have plenty.

Hamas is surprisingly good at smuggling weapons, some of the most common weapons after the Type-56 AK is none other than the Menusar (shortened Colt 503) that they smuggled in quantity from the IDF, together with the Matador rocket launcher.

M72 + Matador, a few more M72 has also been captured from the IDF in the ongoing war

So if they could smuggle all that stuff from mortal enemy israel, I suggest they can smuggle more from Egypt, which while at the top level is clearly having animosity with Hamas (being affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood), at the bottom, they could rely on the Egyptian low ranking troops which I believe has been their main supplier of arms in addition to the traditional black market dealer. Low-paid soldiers are surprisingly willing to sell weapons to their foes, as can be seen in this picture where OPM brandished their rifles which are open secret to be sourced from Indonesian low-paid soldiers and police.



OPM Pindad SS-1 and Norinco AK-2000P which could only be sourced from none other than Indonesian army and police arsenal

View attachment 64347

Most of Hamas's domestic weaponries are made from readily available ingredients (sugar, fertilizer, etc) so they're still good to go for many more months.

Back during the Mosul campaign, ISIS readily make thousands of home-crafted rocket launchers, some even with in-house explosive penetrator design

View attachment 64346

I believe Hamas's subterranean weapons workshop deep inside those tunnels is more protected than the surface weapons workshop of ISIS during the battle for Mosul + I suspect they have stored the necessary ingredients to keep producing even in war time.

Another indicator to "guess" how much longer that Hamas will be supplied with anti tank rocket is this article from 2009

Egypt's Role in Gaza Arms Smuggling

Flickr/Creative Commons/apdk The intricate network of tunnels connecting the Gaza Strip with Egypt remains the lifeline of Hamas, allowing it to build up its weapons arsenal and indiscriminately fire rockets into Israel. Some sources estimate that as many as 800 tunnels crisscross the border...

www.aei.org

from September 2005 through December 2008, that number increased drastically: Israeli intelligence sources estimate that 250 tons of explosives, 4,000 RPGs, and 1,800 rockets crossed the border during that span.​

Since then a lot has changed, in 2011 Gaddafi Jammahirriya finally fell, and so has the locks of his massive arsenal which included AK-103 that @Kartal1 in addition to rare F2000 rifle and the IGLA-S MANPADS.


Hamas gunmen with F2000s and Ak-103. All ex-Jamahiriya stock

and I'm sure as well many ex-Libyan army RPGs finds its way to Gaza through Egypt.

So that + Hamas own production, should be good for a long protracted urban war

Oh yes, Hamas anti tank rocket arsenal included M136 and NLAW sourced from faraway Ukraine

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1716471120818237580

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741460027787948122

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741501050941579558

I recommend that the title be changed to Palestine-Israel-Yemen War. Because it is only a matter of time before coalition countries attack Yemen.

@Kartal1 @Yasar

 

[Gary]

The UK and US are set to release an unprecedented joint statement in the coming hours that will warn the Houthis to stop attacking commercial vessels or face the military might of the West, according to the paper.

UK 'prepares for air strikes' on Houthi rebels following Red Sea vessel attacks

Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, said the UK 'will be forced to take the necessary and appropriate action' against the Houthis if the attacks continue

inews.co.uk

Interesting development.

The UK seems to want to have its hand in every corner of the earth at the moment. Good, I expect the UK to be stretched fighting the Houthis, arming the Ukrainians against Russia, policing Caribbean waters against Venezuela, and confronting China in the Pacific at the same time.

To be fair unless they physically occupy Yemen, the effect will be short term.

 

[Gary]

The situation now is the Israelis are stuck in Gaza, they are itching to clear the Lebanese border up North, while at the Mandeb strait, the US/UK is itching to open another front, which they probably thought would be a quick military campaign, but could lead to attacks to their men and assets in Iraq and Syria. Houthis and Hezbollah are two of the important pillars of the so-called 'axis of resistance' led by Iran, if the Houthis/Hezbollah are to be put in a position where they are in imminent danger of succumbing to the might of Western power, expect the US military mission in Iraq and Syria to be pounded heavily by the other arms of the axis such as the PMF.

Prolly creating an even bigger war, not just an Israel-Palestine-Yemen war but it could lead to a literal Middle East War/ Gulf War 3.0 where Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar could be dragged.

An Iran-dominated Iraq could be forced to close the border crossing with Syria, making it even more difficult for the U.S. forces in NES to sustain their operations there and safekeeping Rojava. This could be Turkiye's chance to offer the Americans a deal in which Turkey demands the Americans to throw the SDF to the bin and let Turkish troops to enter the area in exchange for containing Iran's influence long term. And if they don't agree, it's best for Turkey to let the Americans be fed to the dogs.

It remains to be seen if Saudi Arabia would want to gamble and join the US/UK strike on Yemen and potentially throw away the ceasefire deal. If they do, well again be prepared for another Abqaiq event which the Saudis (and their Israeli allies) would want to be used as Cassus Beli to widen the war directly against Tehran, the patron of the Axis with Western help. Iran entering the war/being dragged into the war, as a result, will mean that Hormuz would become another naval chokepoint to be closed for commercial shipping.

While this happens the Chinese and Russians are ready to do their own thing, with Venezuela still testing waters in Guinea.

China in particular would pay close attention if the Western air power based from their aircraft carriers could subdue Iran and Yemen via airstrike alone. And if after careful consideration they deem it not to be much of a threat to a nation's survival, it will likely embolden them to take Taiwan via the military option.

The happiest of them all should be Russia who now finds that the West are paying even less and less attention to Ukraine.

 

[Kartal1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741501050941579558

I recommend that the title be changed to Palestine-Israel-Yemen War. Because it is only a matter of time before coalition countries attack Yemen.

@Kartal1 @Yasar

We are following.

 

[Bogeyman]

The situation now is the Israelis are stuck in Gaza, they are itching to clear the Lebanese border up North, while at the Mandeb strait, the US/UK is itching to open another front, which they probably thought would be a quick military campaign, but could lead to attacks to their men and assets in Iraq and Syria. Houthis and Hezbollah are two of the important pillars of the so-called 'axis of resistance' led by Iran, if the Houthis/Hezbollah are to be put in a position where they are in imminent danger of succumbing to the might of Western power, expect the US military mission in Iraq and Syria to be pounded heavily by the other arms of the axis such as the PMF.

Prolly creating an even bigger war, not just an Israel-Palestine-Yemen war but it could lead to a literal Middle East War/ Gulf War 3.0 where Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar could be dragged.

An Iran-dominated Iraq could be forced to close the border crossing with Syria, making it even more difficult for the U.S. forces in NES to sustain their operations there and safekeeping Rojava. This could be Turkiye's chance to offer the Americans a deal in which Turkey demands the Americans to throw the SDF to the bin and let Turkish troops to enter the area in exchange for containing Iran's influence long term. And if they don't agree, it's best for Turkey to let the Americans be fed to the dogs.

It remains to be seen if Saudi Arabia would want to gamble and join the US/UK strike on Yemen and potentially throw away the ceasefire deal. If they do, well again be prepared for another Abqaiq event which the Saudis (and their Israeli allies) would want to be used as Cassus Beli to widen the war directly against Tehran, the patron of the Axis with Western help. Iran entering the war/being dragged into the war, as a result, will mean that Hormuz would become another naval chokepoint to be closed for commercial shipping.

While this happens the Chinese and Russians are ready to do their own thing, with Venezuela still testing waters in Guinea.

China in particular would pay close attention if the Western air power based from their aircraft carriers could subdue Iran and Yemen via airstrike alone. And if after careful consideration they deem it not to be much of a threat to a nation's survival, it will likely embolden them to take Taiwan via the military option.

The happiest of them all should be Russia who now finds that the West are paying even less and less attention to Ukraine.

I already wrote these 3-4 weeks ago.

 

[Ravager]

The UK and US are set to release an unprecedented joint statement in the coming hours that will warn the Houthis to stop attacking commercial vessels or face the military might of the West, according to the paper.

UK 'prepares for air strikes' on Houthi rebels following Red Sea vessel attacks

Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, said the UK 'will be forced to take the necessary and appropriate action' against the Houthis if the attacks continue

inews.co.uk

Interesting development.

The UK seems to want to have its hand in every corner of the earth at the moment. Good, I expect the UK to be stretched fighting the Houthis, arming the Ukrainians against Russia, policing Caribbean waters against Venezuela, and confronting China in the Pacific at the same time.

To be fair unless they physically occupy Yemen, the effect will be short term.

Yup , without a boots presence on the geound . This is nothing but a theatrical gestures . Yet , any land invasion into yemen only galvanizing the resistamce movement and precursor of US diminishing influences in the MENA . Talibans and radicals ( all kinds ) alike would gladly come to the calllings . With china and russia as the main beneficary of it .

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741460027787948122

After all the dust are settled . A new generation of islamic fighters are born and thriving . Wether it was a beneficial for islamic world or not .... Honestly , I have no idea .