More about the meeting from WaPoUS, Israel and UAE meeting last Thursday about Gaza “day after (war)” plan from Axios
Some points:
1. UAE only wants to involve if PA be the one that responsible for Gaza without Hamas, and sending its troops to Gaza for peacekeeping and to return law and order only if received formal invitation from the PA.
2. Israel asked the UAE to be part of rebuilding of Gaza, troops for peacekeeping operation and overhaul Gaza education which include deradicalization. Good to know, MBZ known for its anti-Muslim Brotherhood stance and its derivatives (both Bannaism and Qutbism).
Bannaists (from Hasan Al-Banna name) tend to create Islamic state through democratic process and gradual change. While Qutbists (Sayyid Qutb) are revolutionary Islamists.
UAE tries to pull of an ‘Abraham Redux’ in Gaza | WaPoThe essence of the UAE proposal is that a “reformed” Palestinian Authority, as the internationally recognized governing authority for Gaza, could invite international partners to support security and humanitarian aid in Gaza during a “stabilization mandate” that might last up to a year. The Emiratis are said to favor Fayad, the PA’s prime minister from 2007 to 2013, as leader of the reform effort. The Israelis appear willing to accept him. Fayad did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.
The Emirati proposal envisions that the PA would solicit military and intelligence support from a range of countries. Despite Netanyahu’s past strident opposition to the PA, Dermer is said to have conveyed that Israel might tacitly accept this approach.
Possible Arab security providers include Egypt, Morocco, Qatar and the UAE itself, officials said. The parties discussed potential security backing from non-Arab countries, too, including Italy, Rwanda, Brazil, Indonesia and perhaps a leading Central Asian nation. The United States would provide command-and-control and logistical support from a nearby base in Egypt. A potentially controversial part of the plan would be armed support from U.S.-based security contractors.
The back-channel group has discussed seeking backing for this stabilization force from the U.N. General Assembly, rather than the Security Council, where it might face a Russian veto or paralyzing negotiations. The initial stabilization period would be followed by a “reconstruction mandate” that could stretch for years.
In its white paper, the UAE is said to have detailed its basic ideas: After fighting ends, the “reformed” PA would issue its invitation to security providers. Israel would agree not to undermine this Gaza effort by making provocative moves in the West Bank that could explode the security situation there. The Emiratis also hope the United States will work to refine a “road map” toward an eventual Palestinian state, even though Israel wouldn’t endorse it.
The Emirati plan envisions a gradually expanding zone of internationally supported security moving from north to south in Gaza, one sector at a time. This approach is similar to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s proposal for security “bubbles,” though the emissaries don’t use that term. Though Netanyahu publicly rejected Gallant’s proposal, Dermer’s involvement suggests he might be ready to accept a rebranded version of it.
The Emiratis have played a growing role in Gaza, with a hospital there and other humanitarian efforts. They have tapped a network of supporters of Mohammed Dahlan, a former top PA security official from Gaza who has lived in Abu Dhabi since Hamas came to power. Dahlan, a controversial figure in Palestinian circles, doesn’t intend to return to the enclave, officials said. But the UAE hopes he will continue tapping a network of longtime supporters behind the scenes, officials told me.
Given Netanyahu’s past disdain for day-after planning, it’s good that his team is finally engaging these issues seriously. But the real requirement in Gaza — the sine qua non, literally, is a real and lasting end to the war. And the Abu Dhabi dialogue, encouraging as it is, hasn’t done anything yet to silence the guns.
Israel is trying to install Mohammed Dahlan as a potential leader for post-war Gaza.
— Dahlan is a former Palestinian security chief who once tried to crush Hamas but was later exiled from the West Bank.
— He currently lives in Abu Dhabi and is seen by some U.S., Israeli, and Arab officials as a viable leader for an interim security force in Gaza.
— Dahlan is being considered as a temporary solution to govern Gaza's security after the Israel-Hamas war.
— One option under consideration involves Dahlan overseeing a Palestinian security force of 2,500 men working with an international force.
— The force would be vetted by the U.S., Israel, and Egypt and would not have clear loyalties to the Palestinian Authority.
— But, Gazans don't want him.
I've talked about this on many places already (not sure if I touched upon it here). This will be a catastrophe scenario.
I have told this fact multiple times in the past, and this is why I'm the rare pro-Palestine supporter who is against ceasefire and even wishes for the:
Many of those points the zionist's general staff lament, I have exhaustively written about that. Some of the things I observe in the Middle East.
- Prolonging of war
- Expansion of the war
- Islamists, and not secular nationalists are the only hope Palestinians have to turn to kick the zionists out
This is because the Arab secular nationalists failed to take advantage of their numerical superiority, there's a saying: "You fight not by following the rules of your enemy, but by forcing your enemy to fight by your rules". And boy those secularists failed big time as they played to the advantage of Israel everytime.If you look at Arab-Israeli wars that were fought in the 20th, it's always characterized by:
- Short sharp wars that are to Israeli advantage
- it always ended with foreign powers intervening (on behalf of Israel and to Israel's advantage) before anything could be done to reverse the situation
This in turn led the secular Arabs to lose their stomach and will in the long run and prefer:
- normalization early on
- followed by full-blown cooperation with the zionists later on.
This is nothing surprising for people with understanding. Because the bedrock and foundation of secularism that the Arabs surrounding Palestine adopt is worldly in matter. They have no concept of good and bad, right or wrong, the hereafter etc. For secularists, good life and money is the end goal. And because money is the goal, the Israelis could direct the Americans (through AIPAC) to shower them with money (and other worldly matters) in return for abandoning Palestine. This is the case with Egypt at the Camp David accord, the case of Morocco in selling Palestine for some empty desert etc.In contrast, Islamist is the anti-thesis of secularists, their goal is not some earthly matter, their stated goal is to make god laws supreme, and to do that they must fight and die. Not any amount of earthly gold and money could buy an Islamists stance in regard to the status of Al-Quds.Also, most Islamists are extranational, they see themselves as one (the Ummah) and do not separate their identity with man-made imaginary borders. In contrast, the nationalist Arabs see themselves as either Egyptians, Syrians, Iraqis etc etc. Which led them to busy quarreling with each other.This explains why the wars of secular Arabs ( Six day war, October war) are short in nature, never exceeding 3 months in duration. While if you look at the war waged by Islamists spans in the years and decades. The Afghan war is 40 years old, the Iraq war is 21, the Syrian war is 13 years old etc etc. The Maxim "You fight not by following the rules of your enemy, but by forcing your enemy to fight by your rules" is something that Islamists understand better than Secularists.This is why Israelis prefer secular regimes because it will be easier to navigate and make deals with them.
- It is imperative to expand the war to the detriment of Zionists
I saw a lot of 'Muslims' on Twitter desperately calling for a ceasefire. This is not smart, because a ceasefire allows the Israelis a breathing space. Like I said, the wars that Israel has fought in the last 70 years are short in nature never exceeding 3 months before they direct a ceasefire.What Israel is facing is Hezbollah, an Islamist group and not the secular Lebanese national army. War with Hezbollah, just like the war with the Taliban, AL-Qaeda, the Islamic State etc is a war you are ensured to be sucked into for decades to come.Just like In Ukraine, at some point, these zionist will lose the will to fight, because they are mostly and exclusively settlers, there's always the option to flee, which will hurt the state of Israel, especially in the middle of a war that is guaranteed to last decades and not weeks or months. As the Americans figure it out the hard way in AfghanistanThe religion of Islam + the numerous Arabs that adopt it is the ultimate combo of this war because Islam is a religion that emphasize martial struggle (Jihad) and it is a religion that elevates martyrs (shahid) to such a very high and noble degree, again this is something that secularists neither know nor understand. The Egyptian army for example pursued ceasefire after the Israelis came close to Cairo in 1973, meanwhile Islamist Hamas fought on for 9 months already inside Gaza. There's a very big difference between the two bedrock of Arab struggle against Israel.A war fought and directed by Islamists will make sure the maxim "You fight not by following the rules of your enemy, but by forcing your enemy to fight by your rules" is to the advantage of Arabs. Because the Arabs have the numbers, and with Islam as its soul, they will never be short of willing-to-die manpower to fight the war.An expanded war the engulfs the Middle East will make it easier for recruitment because what I observe in Syria is that Islamists simply have the appeal to the masses more than the secular FSA.
- Rarely if ever a war against a region of Islamists hotbed goes the way the Zionists want
The Netanyahu cabinet of Ben Gvir and Smotrich goes to war in Gaza believing that Hamas will be gone in weeks or months, it's been 9 months and Hamas is yet to be cracked. The invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan that was directed by the Jews not only failed to transform those states into 'friendlies' (Like Morocco) it backfired. Iraq comes up with ISIS and the Shia militias that are now sending missiles and drones towards Israel. In short, rarely their plan works. Unlike their dealing with secular regimes.This again shows why it's imperative that this struggle to boot out the Zionists is done exclusively through warfare and not peace talks and conferences. Because whatever the Zionists plan, they couldn't control the outcome.
Which Islamists? Imran Hussein? Or Kadirov ? Maybe Jahbet ul Nusra? Or Pakistani Taliban? The various flavours of the Syrian or Iraqi islamists? Maybes Iranian islamists who just sold weapons to Armenians? Which ones? The ones for whome wearing white socks is too sexy? Or the ones who debate about second wife and masculinity?
The number of Israelis who left the country permanently surged 285 per cent following 7 October, according to data published in the Times of Israel. Reports from Channel 12 News, based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), indicate an unprecedented increase in October 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
Latest reports of the exodus of Israelis confirms data published two months after the 7 October attack which showed that nearly half a million people left Israel. It also showed a significant decline in the number of Jewish immigrants arriving in Israel. A second survey among Israelis living abroad conducted in March by the Hebrew University on the initiative of the World Zionist Organisation revealed that 80 per cent said that they do not intend to return to Israel.
The data from CBS suggests that many Israelis who have the option of a second home abroad choose to relocate during times of heightened conflict, seeking safety and stability elsewhere. This trend stands in stark contrast to the claims made by proponents of Zionism who argue that Israel is the ultimate sanctuary for Jews worldwide.
Instead, the data indicate that it is precisely the existence of Israel and its policies that compel Jews to seek refuge elsewhere, highlighting a paradox in the Zionist narrative.
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The manpower surrounding israel is enough to sustain war for..forever.
The war in Syria is in it's 13th year, with no end in sight, the country is battered but that doesn't seems to affect how the players are able to stockpile guns and ammo + recruit men.
The Islamic State Badia campaign is the most extreme example that the expansion of this war is TOTALLY 100% sustainable and viable. I'm thinking that the likes of Hezbollah and Houthis will have a more liberal amount of backers and supplies than the desert units of IS fighting Assad.
If IS can sustain war in the Badia with minimal resources and tiny manpower, it's totally realistic that a war the engulfs the entire middle east could be sustained, there's simply more pool of people with less central authority to police weapons ownership.
Long war =
collapse of many Arab states central authority
exhaustion of Israel, it's allies and its Arab dogs
The eventual flight of jews seeking to dodge the draft (israel is a tiny nation of 9 million)
Eventually the final showdown could not be achieved without the complete, total and utter destruction of the secular Arab states. Islamist is the only one that will plant the victory flag in Aqsa. Guaranteed,