Alright! Let's get this show started then!
I think we may have to wait a couple days for it to start
On the serious note I think they will wait for Haniye to be buried, most probably tomorrow and also there is information circulating about a high level meeting of the Axis of Resistance organizations in Tehran, so they should also meet and discuss the details. We saw that Hezbollah fired some rockets today and probably these lower intensity attacks will continue until the real escalation comes in order to put pressure on IDF air defence stocks and personnel.
I think we may see Israeli governmental buildings and/or leadership residences targeted. I doubt they will inflict heavy damage as they will most probably demonstrate a restraint like the last time, but it will carry the same message of "If we want we can..."
The mystery of what exactly was the method of elimination of Haniye is also still there. Latest version is that, they targeted Haniye with an explosive devise placed in his room. It is still not 100% confirmed, but if actually this is not the case, but instead he was targeted by some kind of drone or something else launched from KRG, Iraq we may also see targets being hit in Erbil. I have no doubt that Israeli operations in Iran are enabled by KRG and US infrastructure in Iraq and I think the US forces stationed there will be on high alert.
A serious and "real" if we can call it that way response would most probably trigger a serious response by Israel in Lebanon. We also know that the IDF were in a process of preparation for a possible escalation in that area. Currently the situation is such that the US forces in the region are basically held hostage by a mad man in the face of Netanyahu. US forces will be forced to enable the Israeli response, provide support and intervene at the needed scale in the case of an escalation that gets out of control. The worst thing is that the chance of this escalation triggering a domino effect and the conflict being pushed in terms of intensity all over the region is not small and this situation may "invite" a large scale US intervention which will be a catastrophe for the Middle East.
I think influential actors like the US, Turkiye and Qatar should do everything possible to localize the scale of this conflict and prevent it from spreading further and intensify. To me it looks like Netanyahu is pushing towards some kind of an end game and will want to use the chaos of such a regional conflict in order to authorize even more aggressive IDF intervention in Gaza, pushing the narrative of how Israel's very existence is threatened, the world must defend Israel etc. while IDF terror increases even more because even if it is not believable to some they can be even more cruel, but they need the right atmosphere and conditions, so they can legitimize it.
By the looks, Hamas is not in a very good shape and while the US is ensuring the security of Israel from external threats like the one in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen with the help of its regional allies like Saudi Arabia and Jordan, the IDF will most probably push hard mercilessly so they can accomplish their military goal of finishing the resistance and their political one of ending the Palestinian enclave in Gaza by removing its population, forcing it to move to most probably Egypt.
Of course it is easier said than done and this ride will not be smooth at all. There will be very serious consequences for Israel, but personally I don't believe that super power like the US and its allies in Europe will allow Israel to be annihilated and/or overpowered. A possible direct confrontation between the US and Iran will be the catastrophe I talked about above in this scenario. It is just that I don't think the Axis of Resistance will be ready to face the regional consequences of the possible large scale US intervention and I also don't think the whole Eastern block is ready and determined enough for the global consequences that may arise from this escalation and the possible exploitation of this situation in another hot spots like Taiwan, Ukraine, Kosovo or even South America.
Taking in account of all that can go wrong I don't think the Axis of Resistance will be the ones escalating the conflict to such a point. We will most probably see a moderate response, it is possible that a second tier high ranked Israeli military and political officials are targeted, but annihilation, "the deletion" of Israel from the face of the earth over a guy like Haniye? Nah... This will be part of another movie.
With the death of these high level ideologically moved, unifying figures there are gaps that are opened for the possible exploitation, fracturing and enforcing X actor's positions. This actor may be Iran, Turkiye, even Israel. After the damage Hamas sustained I don't think it will ever return to the organization it was before even if it somehow survives. It will evolve into something else and time will show into what exactly it will evolve. As a Turk I would like to see Turkiye using this situation in order to reinforce its positions and influence within the organization as we know many names within it, worked with closely with a lot of figures and I overall think a Turkish hand in the whole mess will give the birth to a positive results for the people of Gaza. Qatar's and Turkiye's role in Hamas are critical and we must be able to exert influence in the organization better or Hamas will become the next Iranian proxy that will endanger our interests and will act as a destabilizing factor, exploiting the Palestinian resistance for Iran's political ambitions with the price of Palestinian and Sunni blood.
