150-200 m. difference between aim and hit point.Is not that too much?
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Just curios, how did you come to the conclusion where the bomb hit is 150-200m from the cave entrance?
My own very simple and amateur conclusion is that the bomb hit just left of halve way up from your green line.
That make the distance between cave entrance (lower halve of your orange circle) and bomb about <5m.
You can use the cave entrance (1-2m), bomb (Mk82+LGK, 2m), the layered mountain structure (1-2m) or the blast radius (20m) as scale.
I simply can not get anywhere near 150-200m as you suggest. We also need to consider that we have seen many examples where our laser guided bombs such as MAM-L have CEP < 1m. I assume that our military would simply not accept CEP>150m from LGK.
Also, you can see a blast with flames which directed straight away from the cave entrance like the cave is directing the blast outwards. This indicate that a blast occured inside the cave. It could obviously be secondary explosion from within the cave but it could also be the chock waves bouncing off from the cave entrance. Anyway, that directed explosion away from the cave indicate that people inside had a bad day.
Finally, I also assume that we had people on the ground to verify the kills, otherwise this whole statement of him being killed is stupid since caves can be very safe against explosion on the outside.