TR Military Operations in Northern Iraq

Kartal1

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Sounds like bullshit on the border closing but let's see
Close the border? If they are talking on the Iraq-Syria border this is impossible. If the operation is as speculated in Tepe Bahar it will go for months even more than a year.

There are also rumors on operation in Syria and closing the borders would make sense to prevent fighters fleeing to Iraq and in this sense there is some possibility for closing the border for guys with uniforms and transferring the names of the ones that crossed the border to MIT for examination. Analyzers are not looking too positive on a possible operation in Syria, but even if it happens I don't think it will target areas close to Malikiya. Maybe Tal Rifat.
 

Sanchez

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Security meeting in Claw-Lock Zone

MSB: Our operations in northern Iraq are carried out in close coordination with Iraqi security units.

In this context, 2nd Army Commander Lieutenant General Metin Tokel and the accompanying delegation held a border security meeting with Iraqi local officials.

In the meeting held with Iraqi local officials within the borders of the Claw-Kilit Operation Zone, the security of the Iraq-Turkey border line was discussed, while measures to increase the security of Iraqi citizens were also discussed.

Army delegation met with the Iraqi border guard contingent up north. @Kartal1
 

Bozan

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Security meeting in Claw-Lock Zone

MSB: Our operations in northern Iraq are carried out in close coordination with Iraqi security units.

In this context, 2nd Army Commander Lieutenant General Metin Tokel and the accompanying delegation held a border security meeting with Iraqi local officials.

In the meeting held with Iraqi local officials within the borders of the Claw-Kilit Operation Zone, the security of the Iraq-Turkey border line was discussed, while measures to increase the security of Iraqi citizens were also discussed.

Army delegation met with the Iraqi border guard contingent up north. @Kartal1

Lmao they censored the flag on the guys arm on the official account as well. Is it really that important?

But when they post compromising media (opsec) they won't censor it
 
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Kartal1

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Security meeting in Claw-Lock Zone

MSB: Our operations in northern Iraq are carried out in close coordination with Iraqi security units.

In this context, 2nd Army Commander Lieutenant General Metin Tokel and the accompanying delegation held a border security meeting with Iraqi local officials.

In the meeting held with Iraqi local officials within the borders of the Claw-Kilit Operation Zone, the security of the Iraq-Turkey border line was discussed, while measures to increase the security of Iraqi citizens were also discussed.

Army delegation met with the Iraqi border guard contingent up north. @Kartal1
Many sources confirm that operation will start soon. The meeting between MoFA, MIT Chief and MoND was a sign. One day after this the Second Army Commander is going to the operation area himself. This is very big! The meeting was held close to our position and both Iraqi Army and Peshmerga officials were there. Both Iraqi Army and Peshmerga were given tasks and reportedly the Iraqi Army was given a task of control over Sinjar.

According to the sources TSK is preparing something big. We may not see a direct incursion in Sinjar, but a serious wave of airstrikes. It is known that the PKK is enlarging their tunnel network in the area. We also may see an operation in Syria towards the end of the summer or in 2025 at latest (if not stopped like the last couple of times). The fact is that while the situation in Iraq is good, determination in terms of counter-terrorism is there, Syria as we all know is not looking good and we are late. What I can decipher from the statements of people close to MoND and leading analyzers of the operations is that we are going to do a serious catching up in 2025 when it comes to Syria.

Iraq is also showing a positive approach because they started to put a big importance on the Iraq Development Project. In order for the project to work as intended both PKK and Iranian militias presence must be eliminated in Sinjar and KRG as a whole. Iran is sensing what is happening and started two projects that aim at strengthening their presence in the areas of question. First they announced the forming of Hezbollah wing in KRG and secondly they started mobilizing Syrian Arab tribes as a pretext of fighting against YPG (we are talking about a new formation). In fact these tribal forces will work for establishing of Iranian presence along critical areas on the border between Syria and Iraq so they can secure the strategic route that Iran wants to establish which is going to the Mediterranean. This is different than the tribal uprising against the YPG that we saw earlier in the last couple of months.

Operation in Iraq will most probably start after Ramadan and after the elections are finished. This operations carries a critical importance both when it comes to the fight against PKK, but also when it comes to limiting Iranian influence in the areas of our interest. Both the conjecture regarding the military and political developments in KRG is pointing that we are approaching a critical point where we may fall in a situation where we must intervene in KRG as a guarantor force because Iranian and Central Government pressure is rising with every passing day. I just hope we are ready when this day comes because if we now are talking about PKK in Zap, Hakurk and Metina, tomorrow we may talk about Hezbollah at these places. May God help our decision makers and soldiers so we deliver the best response to this hard situation.
 

Saithan

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IMO, Türkiye needs the ability to utilize 100 deaths a night, either through MIT or several other organizations.

Taking out one snake is not enough if they have 5 that can replace them. That's what building institutions, organizations and such are for. They'll keep providing people to fill the shoes, and slowly advance forward.

You need to clean up people that intellectually drives the enemy and erase the foundation.
 

Sanchez

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Lmao they censored the flag on the guys arm on the official account as well. Is it really that important?

But when they post compromising media (opsec) they won't censor it
Good eye, totally missed the KRG flag there. So it was a triple meeting of Turkey, Iraqi Army and KDP Peshmerga.

Operation in Iraq will most probably start after Ramadan and after the elections are finished.
Erdoğan will also visit Iraq, both Erbil and Baghdad in April per reports. First time since 2012.
 

Bozan

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Good eye, totally missed the KRG flag there. So it was a triple meeting of Turkey, Iraqi Army and KDP Peshmerga.


Erdoğan will also visit Iraq, both Erbil and Baghdad in April per reports. First time since 2012.

Yeah it's censored in both pictures. They didn't do that before, I don't think. Election season!
 

Kartal1

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Potentially big. But the word terrorist was not used.
Woow! This is indeed big! I wonder what steps will Iran take regarding the whole situation and the Development Project they oppose.



Iraqi local sources: The Turkish state's spring operation will begin after the elections. Especially Baregare and Zebari regions.

Baregare: East of Gara, east of Sheladiz town, south of Siriye village.
Zebari: Zevka passage, located in the south of Deraluk town, is one of the largest passages in the Gara region.

With the intense diplomatic traffic, expectations for the Claw operations to be held in Iraq this summer have increased. It left question marks in our minds as to whether it would spread to Gara or Sinjar. We will try to clear these question marks in your minds.

First of all, the organization continues its presence in Zap and Metina. There are more than 100 terrorists in the Matin Mountain, Seri and Tepe Bahar regions of the Zap region. There are 4 large tunnels that still cannot be cleaned. And the OP has not yet been launched on Tepe Bahar, the largest tunnel in the region.

This year, these 4 large tunnels will be specifically targeted. Another part of the job is the Metina camp area. Even though the TSK base areas in the Gapnerk and Amedi regions are not under high threat, the organization continues to have a presence in Metina with 5 large tunnels in the area.

In addition to Zap and Metina, there are steps to be taken to connect the Avasin and Zap operation areas and to address the increasing PKK activity in Hakurk. In other words, we do not have the space/power/necessity to operate in Gara or any other region at this time.

Secondly, the strategy, functioning and action style of the Claw operations are not suitable for either Gara or Sinjar. If there is an operation in Gara or another region, a different strategy and course of action is required.

This is not something that will happen immediately. This requires long-term preparation and a large number of soldiers. The Turkish Armed Forces currently neither have the time nor the "idle" soldiers who can carry out such a major operation.

In addition, it is not reasonable to expect the Turkish Armed Forces, which cannot solve the tunnel problem in the Claw Lock area, to carry out an operation in the Gara camp area, where the organization's most advanced tunnels are located and where only tunnel work has been carried out for the last 2 years.

Best sources on the operations in Iraq and Syria:

 

Kartal1

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PKK's Karayilan: We will deliver good news on Newroz​

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Pervin Buldan reads a letter from Ocalan in 2013


News Center - PKK Executive Committee Member Murat Karayilan announced that they will make an important statement in Newroz.

Murat Karayilan, one of the leading figures of the PKK, announced in an interview about the agenda that they will announce a “good news” with a written statement in the next few days.

"No one should vote for thieves, murderers, tyrants"

PKK Executive Committee Member Murat Karayilan called on voters to vote for not those who would enrich themselves, their families, their relatives, but those who would truly serve them.

“We will deliver good news to our people in the coming days”

Saying that they will deliver good news on Newroz, Karayilan used the following statements in this regard:

"Newroz also means a day of unity, struggle, resistance. On this occasion, I call on all the forces in Kurdistan; parties, organizations, patriotic persons to act for national unity. Today our people need national unity like water, like air, more than ever. In this historical period, the Kurdish people should have a common strategy and realize their national unity. Although some do not participate, those who participate will come and establish unity. That's very important. Newroz could be the beginning.

In this Newroz, the administration of our movement, will deliver good news to our people in the next few days. We will announce our good news with a written statement. These good news will be a tool that has an important role in raising our struggle. We will announce the news in the coming days."

The leader of the PKK in Imrali Prison, Abdullah Ocalan, called for a ceasefire in Newroz in 2013.

In a letter read by Pervin Buldan and Sirri Sureyya of BDP at the Newroz celebration in Diyarbakir by the leader of PKK, Ocalan asked the PKK to withdraw its armed forces from Turkey.

Abdullah Ocalan's letter read at the Newroz celebrations in 2014 and 2015, in Diyarbakir, reiterated his call to the PKK to end the armed struggle and enter into political struggle.

 

Bozan

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PKK's Karayilan: We will deliver good news on Newroz​

View attachment 66564

Pervin Buldan reads a letter from Ocalan in 2013


News Center - PKK Executive Committee Member Murat Karayilan announced that they will make an important statement in Newroz.

Murat Karayilan, one of the leading figures of the PKK, announced in an interview about the agenda that they will announce a “good news” with a written statement in the next few days.

"No one should vote for thieves, murderers, tyrants"

PKK Executive Committee Member Murat Karayilan called on voters to vote for not those who would enrich themselves, their families, their relatives, but those who would truly serve them.

“We will deliver good news to our people in the coming days”

Saying that they will deliver good news on Newroz, Karayilan used the following statements in this regard:

"Newroz also means a day of unity, struggle, resistance. On this occasion, I call on all the forces in Kurdistan; parties, organizations, patriotic persons to act for national unity. Today our people need national unity like water, like air, more than ever. In this historical period, the Kurdish people should have a common strategy and realize their national unity. Although some do not participate, those who participate will come and establish unity. That's very important. Newroz could be the beginning.

In this Newroz, the administration of our movement, will deliver good news to our people in the next few days. We will announce our good news with a written statement. These good news will be a tool that has an important role in raising our struggle. We will announce the news in the coming days."

The leader of the PKK in Imrali Prison, Abdullah Ocalan, called for a ceasefire in Newroz in 2013.

In a letter read by Pervin Buldan and Sirri Sureyya of BDP at the Newroz celebration in Diyarbakir by the leader of PKK, Ocalan asked the PKK to withdraw its armed forces from Turkey.

Abdullah Ocalan's letter read at the Newroz celebrations in 2014 and 2015, in Diyarbakir, reiterated his call to the PKK to end the armed struggle and enter into political struggle.


Wonder if it's related to the development road, or a new ceasefire. His language regarding votes can't mean a ceasefire.
 

Kartal1

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Wonder if it's related to the development road, or a new ceasefire. His language regarding votes can't mean a ceasefire.
It may be something related to PUK, PJAK and PYD/YPG. By those who do not participate he may be sending references to KDP.

Note:

"Newroz also means a day of unity, struggle, resistance. On this occasion, I call on all the forces in Kurdistan; parties, organizations, patriotic persons to act for national unity. Today our people need national unity like water, like air, more than ever. In this historical period, the Kurdish people should have a common strategy and realize their national unity. Although some do not participate, those who participate will come and establish unity. That's very important. Newroz could be the beginning."
 

Lool

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Are they trying to establish an axis of resistance against the new Iraqi-Turkish alliance?
 

Kartal1

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Are they trying to establish an axis of resistance against the new Iraqi-Turkish alliance?
It is still very early to call it an alliance. Yes, it is important that PKK was listed as an outlaw organization by the Iraqi Central Government, but this is simply not enough. While it is a good start we want to see a concrete steps taken regarding the fight against PKK in all its realms.

For example there is no distinction between PKK and YBS for Turkiye and good part of the targeted HVTs in Sinjar by MIT are part of YBS, which is a structure fully incorporated within the Hashdi Shaabi (PMU) and their salaries are being paid by Iraq's budget.

I personally don't know exactly how to understand Murat Karayilan's statement. While in its core it is similar to big extend to his message from 2023 the part with the "good news" is a bit confusing for me. It may be something politically related to the internal politics in KRG or some cooperation agreement with actors in Iraq, Iran and Syria or a sign for a major preparation for an attack. We will see...
 

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