@Kartal1 @Sanchez @Afif
Now will Türkiye start killing US soldiers or CIA agents? WTF?
These are good news.
I don't think the US Army or CIA has anything to do with the weapons supplies in question. The Americans are playing another game, assisting the PKK/YPG in relationship to the PKK's Syrianizing effort and especially taking security measures for the PKK/YPG high ranked terrorists who have to travel between Syria and Iraq in order to meet PUK under US patronage. After the US quickly realized that their personnel may become targets, instead of Ford Santa Fe's and helicopters a new strategy was developed, using PUK's transport and fake Iraqi and Peshmerga IDs. I don't think currently the US is ensuring the security of YPG leaders in Iraq, rather they trust in PUK and the fact that the terrorists are moving in a way which would endanger PUK security personnel, political officials and property if we take a shot, which will not be optimal.
On the other hand we have Iran which is delivering weapons and training to PKK trough PUK, using PUK's infrastructure.
Weapons and drone training comes from Iran, the security of the traffic and logistics base in Iraq comes from the political cover of PUK and their infrastructure and the security of high ranking YPG terrorists in Syria comes from the US, but the protection is limited to the big fishes while the ones in the middle or the low level rats are fried by MIT as we see almost every week.
Is there real danger for the US soldiers or CIA in Iraq? I think yes, as long as they stay close to YPG/PKK targets. They understand the risk and this is why a new tactic is employed in order to ensure the safety of US personnel and also prevent the headlines of US personnel being killed or hurt together with a YPG high ranking leader in Iraq or God forbid with a high ranking Qandil/Iraqi branch PKK terrorist. Such an event will also be a very big hit to the Turkiye-US relationship and the US would carry all the responsibility for this. I don't think the US is ready to lose Turkiye because of such a dumb accident and they are taking the needed measures to prevent it. This is why they shot down our drone in Syria earlier. A drone is a news for a day or two, not even on the headlines while hurt or killed US personnel will be another story.
Is there real danger for IRGC personnel? It depends on who's directly involved in the logistics of the weapons supply. If they are caught by some chance on the wrong place and in the wrong time, for example at the Suleymaniye Airport during a weapons delivery or at the PUK depot points around Suleymaniye connected with manufacturing and engineering facilities then IRGC personnel may get fried.
What I think is that the biggest risk will be taken by PUK. Why? Because if the news are true and I understand correctly the scale of things, then we may see targeting of aircraft, facilities within the Suleymaniye Airport, other logistics facilities in Suleymaniye (not only) and even land transport means like trucks or light vehicles as we earlier witnessed on the route going from Gara to Zap and Metina.
Together with this action I also expect other actions to be taken as a last warning to PUK. What we see right now is in result of extreme escalation and rising risk both towards the positions of TSK in Iraq, but also in Syria due to the US support in transport of YPG or Qandil PKK branch important terrorists from Iraq towards Syria and eventually the Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood in Aleppo where they get in touch with HRE under IRGC supervision. In result of this traffic, directives, know how, weapons, materials and engineers are transferred in order to assist the efforts on all fronts and the level of technology, the equipment and style of work which we see in the drones of PKK after their failed tests or failed attacks proves this point.
Out of the situation in Iraq we must also look at the situation in Syria within the same chain of events. Not long ago ~8 UAVs were dispatched to Al-Bab for an ISR flight and were countered by our EW deployed in the area. Immediately after this accident TSK started to take measures by sending additional reinforcements and EW systems in order to cover important sectors in Idlib. If "shoot" order was given for the weapons supply chain in Suleymaniye, I think it is logical that such an order may come for Aleppo/Tal Rifat where not only IRGC is stationed, but also Russian forces. We don't know for sure if there is a high level manufacturing going on in Syria and Iraq at the moment as PKK was experiencing troubles with it earlier, but if we know that there is a serious manufacturing happening in these two countries, then I think the manufacturing facilities will become a direct target. Another version for the origin of these UAVs is that they are manufactured in Iran, transferred to Qandil, from there to Suleymaniye and from Suleymaniye they are distributed to their end destinations like Gara (Iraq) and Aleppo (Syria). In the last days we also see increased activity of the TuAF above Qandil. This may be a sign that manufacturing or depot facilities are targeted (just my 2 cents).
Overall very good development in my opinion, but a late response. If we act within the principle of "The best measure is the preventive measure" I think we should've escalated earlier and prevented these developments. No matter what is going to happen after this, it is going to bring positive points to our shaken deterrence.
May God help our warriors, known and unknown and may he grant us the ultimate victory!
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