TR Military Operations in Northern Iraq

Kartal1

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Let's not open our mouths too much, but the Claw-Lock ongoing in Metina is going well. 5 more terrorists were neutralized yesterday. In terms of the rate of martyrs/neutralized terrorists, the highest rate in the Claw series of operations has been achieved.

TSK will deploy in the western part of Metina and the region will be completely under siege. All that remains is to sweep the tunnels. Villages are still the problem here. If the villages can be evacuated, the personnel on the field will move much more easily.

Both the Turkish Armed Forces and the PKK are entering and leaving these village areas. PKK's attempt to use villages as a shield must be prevented. As you know, the way our operations work does not follow the logic of making the job of the personnel in the field easier. Let's see if extra steps will be taken.

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Kartal1

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The positions at Matin were attacked by a series of UAV strikes in the last couple of days. Fortunately the counter-measures deployed by TSK in the area were active and managed to intercept the drones.


It was revealed that the PKK used a new miniaturized version of the Mugin-3 that they used before and the drone was upgraded with a camera and additional antennas. Judging by the style and workmanship we can conclude that it is produced by the same team that produces the jet motor powered UAV that they tried to use in Syria and tested in Qandil. We can also say that this is the UAV that took the HD videos of the previous failed attacks published by PKK.

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Other than that we can say that TSK took the Metina Mountain range completely under control.

If we draw a line from Seri (Zap) to Metina we can see that a ~40km line was taken under total control.

Now what's left are the tunnels to be isolated one by one and our soldiers to start working on them.

It is estimated that there are ~130 terrorists in the 11 tunnels which will fall under siege during operation Claw-Lock if everything goes right and these ~130 terrorists are the main fighting force of PKK.

If we manage to deal with the tunnels till this winter we will strike a very heavy blow to the PKK's fighting force.

If we happen to not clean them, then we will have 11 tunnels under siege which will fall due to the tactical situation on the field, which will not allow PKK movement, logistical replenishment and we may only expect some kind of inghimasi style suicide attacks.

The only tunnel that carries some level of risk will be the Seri tunnel.

Contrary to what we thought earlier there is still not deployment at Tepe Bahar, but after Metina mountain range fell under control we can say that the time of deployment is close.

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For the best sources on the operation:

 

Kartal1

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According to information leaked around a week ago from within the Iraqi Ministry of Internal Affairs it was revealed that Ferhat Abdi Sahin, the leader of the PKK/YPG terrorist organization in Syria is illegally residing in PUK controlled Kirkuk with the help of false ID. He was residing under the false name of Muhammad Halil Husain. It is thought that there are concerns for his safety in Syria and he took refuge in Iraq due to Turkish pressure.

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Heartbang

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According to information leaked around a week ago from within the Iraqi Ministry of Internal Affairs it was revealed that Ferhat Abdi Sahin, the leader of the PKK/YPG terrorist organization in Syria is illegally residing in PUK controlled Kirkuk with the help of false ID. He was residing under the false name of Muhammad Halil Husain. It is thought that there are concerns for his safety in Syria and he took refuge in Iraq due to Turkish pressure.

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Wouldn't it be easier for our guys to reach to him there?
 

Kartal1

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Wouldn't it be easier for our guys to reach to him there?
We can reach him everywhere. The problem is our agreement with the US.

How I read the situation is that he is slowly realizing that he is disposable and he is scared of being left unprotected by the US. This is why he wants to guarantee his safety by asking PUK for help.

He knows very well that he is breaching the rules put by us by travelling to meet with PUK and most probably the US warned him to not put US forces in risk by such a risky travel. They probably told him "If you want to travel, then we wouldn't be able to ensure your security", after we took this warning drone shot at the Suleymaniye airport. Turkiye is pushing the limits.

We know that PUK arranges the transport of PKK HVTs with a PUK marked political vehicles and false IDs between Syria and Iraq for some time, after nothing else worked. I bet that Ferhat Abdi Sahin is staying in a PUK place, under PUK protection and wherever he goes, he goes in a PUK marked vehicle. This way, they guarantee his safety (the safety which the US can no longer guarantee while he is in Iraq), because they know that the preferred option for us is not to strike a target belonging to the second most powerful Kurdish party in KRG. This will bring repercussions.

In order to ensure a possible undisturbed stay in Iraq under PUK protection, they forged a false identity where he can do what he needs to do without causing suspicion and prevent intelligence leaks. If you have a Syrian passport and you try to enter the KRG you can get a 30 day visa permit which would be lengthened in different cases. The situation is such that if he travels with his real passport not only MIT will confirm trough more than one sources that he travelled, but if he wants to stay in KRG for more than 30 days he may face a legal situation sourced by KDP influence within the KRG government. With the forging of this false Iraqi citizenship PUK basically both covers his identity on entry/departure in/from Iraq and also ensures that he won't face a legal problem with the KRG law enforcements. The management of information leak on Syrian territory is easy as he is holding the strings, but in Iraq the situation changes.

I think this is a countermeasure caused by his panic. Can we strike him in this situation if the need arise and the conditions are met? Yes, we can. What we can't do is strike him directly, but there are more than one options on the table. The hand of the Turkish State is long and no enemy of Turkiye can feel safe.

We can ask why the Iraqi authorities revealed his false identity? In order to eliminate a safe exit from Syria if SHTF and enforce a dependence towards Iran. Why they chose this instead of sending a suicide drone at his house? Because they have plans with PUK and such a move will get in the way of the high level cooperation between Iran and PUK so they prefer to keep him in Syria.

That's my humble opinion on the situation.
 

Saithan

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We can reach him everywhere. The problem is our agreement with the US.

How I read the situation is that he is slowly realizing that he is disposable and he is scared of being left unprotected by the US. This is why he wants to guarantee his safety by asking PUK for help.

He knows very well that he is breaching the rules put by us by travelling to meet with PUK and most probably the US warned him to not put US forces in risk by such a risky travel. They probably told him "If you want to travel, then we wouldn't be able to ensure your security", after we took this warning drone shot at the Suleymaniye airport. Turkiye is pushing the limits.

We know that PUK arranges the transport of PKK HVTs with a PUK marked political vehicles and false IDs between Syria and Iraq for some time, after nothing else worked. I bet that Ferhat Abdi Sahin is staying in a PUK place, under PUK protection and wherever he goes, he goes in a PUK marked vehicle. This way, they guarantee his safety (the safety which the US can no longer guarantee while he is in Iraq), because they know that the preferred option for us is not to strike a target belonging to the second most powerful Kurdish party in KRG. This will bring repercussions.

In order to ensure a possible undisturbed stay in Iraq under PUK protection, they forged a false identity where he can do what he needs to do without causing suspicion and prevent intelligence leaks. If you have a Syrian passport and you try to enter the KRG you can get a 30 day visa permit which would be lengthened in different cases. The situation is such that if he travels with his real passport not only MIT will confirm trough more than one sources that he travelled, but if he wants to stay in KRG for more than 30 days he may face a legal situation sourced by KDP influence within the KRG government. With the forging of this false Iraqi citizenship PUK basically both covers his identity on entry/departure in/from Iraq and also ensures that he won't face a legal problem with the KRG law enforcements. The management of information leak on Syrian territory is easy as he is holding the strings, but in Iraq the situation changes.

I think this is a countermeasure caused by his panic. Can we strike him in this situation if the need arise and the conditions are met? Yes, we can. What we can't do is strike him directly, but there are more than one options on the table. The hand of the Turkish State is long and no enemy of Turkiye can feel safe.

We can ask why the Iraqi authorities revealed his false identity? In order to eliminate a safe exit from Syria if SHTF and enforce a dependence towards Iran. Why they chose this instead of sending a suicide drone at his house? Because they have plans with PUK and such a move will get in the way of the high level cooperation between Iran and PUK so they prefer to keep him in Syria.

That's my humble opinion on the situation.
Wouldn’t this be a good time to reduce PUK influence. If PUK lost influence and got smaller while other parties gained more influence it’d limit their abilities more.
 

Kartal1

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Wouldn’t this be a good time to reduce PUK influence. If PUK lost influence and got smaller while other parties gained more influence it’d limit their abilities more.
The influence of PUK depends on the political situation in KRG and after the latest elections the situation is not the brightest we've seen.

They also gained importance both for the US and Iran.

We previously said that the "failed State" label of Iraq is both a curse, but also a thing which we and other policial players like KDP for example can exploit. The word "democracy" carries different meaning in that side of the world.

I think you are right in your take.
 

Kartal1

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Very big reinforcement convoy including artillery units was spotted in the area of Kani Masi. Kani Masi was one of the starting points for the infiltration operations that was launcher in the beginning of the operation targeting Metina. What we can say is that most probably in the coming days we will witness very serious TSK movement in Metina. Base areas will be established and work on the tunnels will start.

 

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