TR Military Operations in Northern Iraq
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According to information leaked around a week ago from within the Iraqi Ministry of Internal Affairs it was revealed that Ferhat Abdi Sahin, the leader of the PKK/YPG terrorist organization in Syria is illegally residing in PUK controlled Kirkuk with the help of false ID. He was residing under the false name of Muhammad Halil Husain. It is thought that there are concerns for his safety in Syria and he took refuge in Iraq due to Turkish pressure.
Heartbang
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Wouldn't it be easier for our guys to reach to him there?
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We can reach him everywhere. The problem is our agreement with the US.
How I read the situation is that he is slowly realizing that he is disposable and he is scared of being left unprotected by the US. This is why he wants to guarantee his safety by asking PUK for help.
He knows very well that he is breaching the rules put by us by travelling to meet with PUK and most probably the US warned him to not put US forces in risk by such a risky travel. They probably told him "If you want to travel, then we wouldn't be able to ensure your security", after we took this warning drone shot at the Suleymaniye airport. Turkiye is pushing the limits.
We know that PUK arranges the transport of PKK HVTs with a PUK marked political vehicles and false IDs between Syria and Iraq for some time, after nothing else worked. I bet that Ferhat Abdi Sahin is staying in a PUK place, under PUK protection and wherever he goes, he goes in a PUK marked vehicle. This way, they guarantee his safety (the safety which the US can no longer guarantee while he is in Iraq), because they know that the preferred option for us is not to strike a target belonging to the second most powerful Kurdish party in KRG. This will bring repercussions.
In order to ensure a possible undisturbed stay in Iraq under PUK protection, they forged a false identity where he can do what he needs to do without causing suspicion and prevent intelligence leaks. If you have a Syrian passport and you try to enter the KRG you can get a 30 day visa permit which would be lengthened in different cases. The situation is such that if he travels with his real passport not only MIT will confirm trough more than one sources that he travelled, but if he wants to stay in KRG for more than 30 days he may face a legal situation sourced by KDP influence within the KRG government. With the forging of this false Iraqi citizenship PUK basically both covers his identity on entry/departure in/from Iraq and also ensures that he won't face a legal problem with the KRG law enforcements. The management of information leak on Syrian territory is easy as he is holding the strings, but in Iraq the situation changes.
I think this is a countermeasure caused by his panic. Can we strike him in this situation if the need arise and the conditions are met? Yes, we can. What we can't do is strike him directly, but there are more than one options on the table. The hand of the Turkish State is long and no enemy of Turkiye can feel safe.
We can ask why the Iraqi authorities revealed his false identity? In order to eliminate a safe exit from Syria if SHTF and enforce a dependence towards Iran. Why they chose this instead of sending a suicide drone at his house? Because they have plans with PUK and such a move will get in the way of the high level cooperation between Iran and PUK so they prefer to keep him in Syria.
That's my humble opinion on the situation.
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These are good news.
I don't think the US Army or CIA has anything to do with the weapons supplies in question. The Americans are playing another game, assisting the PKK/YPG in relationship to the PKK's Syrianizing effort and especially taking security measures for the PKK/YPG high ranked terrorists who have to travel between Syria and Iraq in order to meet PUK under US patronage. After the US quickly realized that their personnel may become targets, instead of Ford Santa Fe's and helicopters a new strategy was developed, using PUK's transport and fake Iraqi and Peshmerga IDs. I don't think currently the US is ensuring the security of YPG leaders in Iraq, rather they trust in PUK and the fact that the terrorists are moving in a way which would endanger PUK security personnel, political officials and property if we take a shot, which will not be optimal.
On the other hand we have Iran which is delivering weapons and training to PKK trough PUK, using PUK's infrastructure.
Weapons and drone training comes from Iran, the security of the traffic and logistics base in Iraq comes from the political cover of PUK and their infrastructure and the security of high ranking YPG terrorists in Syria comes from the US, but the protection is limited to the big fishes while the ones in the middle or the low level rats are fried by MIT as we see almost every week.
Is there real danger for the US soldiers or CIA in Iraq? I think yes, as long as they stay close to YPG/PKK targets. They understand the risk and this is why a new tactic is employed in order to ensure the safety of US personnel and also prevent the headlines of US personnel being killed or hurt together with a YPG high ranking leader in Iraq or God forbid with a high ranking Qandil/Iraqi branch PKK terrorist. Such an event will also be a very big hit to the Turkiye-US relationship and the US would carry all the responsibility for this. I don't think the US is ready to lose Turkiye because of such a dumb accident and they are taking the needed measures to prevent it. This is why they shot down our drone in Syria earlier. A drone is a news for a day or two, not even on the headlines while hurt or killed US personnel will be another story.
Is there real danger for IRGC personnel? It depends on who's directly involved in the logistics of the weapons supply. If they are caught by some chance on the wrong place and in the wrong time, for example at the Suleymaniye Airport during a weapons delivery or at the PUK depot points around Suleymaniye connected with manufacturing and engineering facilities then IRGC personnel may get fried.
What I think is that the biggest risk will be taken by PUK. Why? Because if the news are true and I understand correctly the scale of things, then we may see targeting of aircraft, facilities within the Suleymaniye Airport, other logistics facilities in Suleymaniye (not only) and even land transport means like trucks or light vehicles as we earlier witnessed on the route going from Gara to Zap and Metina.
Together with this action I also expect other actions to be taken as a last warning to PUK. What we see right now is in result of extreme escalation and rising risk both towards the positions of TSK in Iraq, but also in Syria due to the US support in transport of YPG or Qandil PKK branch important terrorists from Iraq towards Syria and eventually the Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood in Aleppo where they get in touch with HRE under IRGC supervision. In result of this traffic, directives, know how, weapons, materials and engineers are transferred in order to assist the efforts on all fronts and the level of technology, the equipment and style of work which we see in the drones of PKK after their failed tests or failed attacks proves this point.
Out of the situation in Iraq we must also look at the situation in Syria within the same chain of events. Not long ago ~8 UAVs were dispatched to Al-Bab for an ISR flight and were countered by our EW deployed in the area. Immediately after this accident TSK started to take measures by sending additional reinforcements and EW systems in order to cover important sectors in Idlib. If "shoot" order was given for the weapons supply chain in Suleymaniye, I think it is logical that such an order may come for Aleppo/Tal Rifat where not only IRGC is stationed, but also Russian forces. We don't know for sure if there is a high level manufacturing going on in Syria and Iraq at the moment as PKK was experiencing troubles with it earlier, but if we know that there is a serious manufacturing happening in these two countries, then I think the manufacturing facilities will become a direct target. Another version for the origin of these UAVs is that they are manufactured in Iran, transferred to Qandil, from there to Suleymaniye and from Suleymaniye they are distributed to their end destinations like Gara (Iraq) and Aleppo (Syria). In the last days we also see increased activity of the TuAF above Qandil. This may be a sign that manufacturing or depot facilities are targeted (just my 2 cents).
Overall very good development in my opinion, but a late response. If we act within the principle of "The best measure is the preventive measure" I think we should've escalated earlier and prevented these developments. No matter what is going to happen after this, it is going to bring positive points to our shaken deterrence.
May God help our warriors, known and unknown and may he grant us the ultimate victory!
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Tweet got removed, what did it say?
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Wouldn’t this be a good time to reduce PUK influence. If PUK lost influence and got smaller while other parties gained more influence it’d limit their abilities more.
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The influence of PUK depends on the political situation in KRG and after the latest elections the situation is not the brightest we've seen.
They also gained importance both for the US and Iran.
We previously said that the "failed State" label of Iraq is both a curse, but also a thing which we and other policial players like KDP for example can exploit. The word "democracy" carries different meaning in that side of the world.
I think you are right in your take.
It was written that the Turkish Armed Forces received an order to "shoot" if weapons were sent to the PKK from Sulaymaniyah Airport.
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Why would you announce such an order. Just gives the enemy chance to use alternative supply lines.
The networks they can supply will still be within our range.
Is there an official source ?
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Looks like we will soon have clashes with not only PKK, but Iranian and US covert forces.
Our new air defences will come in handy.
Honestly though, stealth platforms will be useful. Even a few Anka 3s will wreak havoc on anything they can muster.
I don't know too much about the 358 missiles, but I think they will be the biggest headache.
Ankara stands firm against terrorist group PKK's activities in Sulaymaniyah - Türkiye Today
Türkiye vows to intercept and neutralize arms deliveries extending its airspace ban on flights from Sulaymaniyah
www.turkiyetoday.com
For example here they also list Germany that Turkey will target for making shipments to PUK. It sounds like bullshit.
And there is no citation or source and there is no name on the article for the author - just "newsroom"
Sounds like propaganda
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Our anti-done systems are currently in use in the Claw-Lock operation area and are performing very good so far.
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Very big reinforcement convoy including artillery units was spotted in the area of Kani Masi. Kani Masi was one of the starting points for the infiltration operations that was launcher in the beginning of the operation targeting Metina. What we can say is that most probably in the coming days we will witness very serious TSK movement in Metina. Base areas will be established and work on the tunnels will start.
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