I'm really not sure what we are waiting for...
But I guess the internal situation will impact the timing of the operation. With the economy in shambles and refugees wreaking havoc, a lot of people have lost the appetite for an operation, unless that operation guarantees the return of all refugees. However, no one expects the current government to carry that out. RTE already said that he won't send refugees back. Soylu said 1 million will return, but it was just in response to Ümit Özdağ.
We need to strike soon, before the war in Ukraine fizzles out. Otherwise this will be a missed opportunity. Either we are preparing for something huge, which I hope is true.. Or the government is fumbling around and postponing it for their own gain. Some recent developments suggest the operation is imminent. But we have seen these types of sudden preparations several times throughout the past two years.
I honestly thought the op would have started weeks ago. Didn't RTE say it already started? Nothing happened.
A danger i see with all of the gun boat politics by erdogan is that Russia may decide that its better to let the americans into manbij and other places as a hedge against Turkey. If you remember when the Americans thought that Turkey was going to move on these regions, they played that trick on Turkey where they handed these regions over to Russia.
The truth is neither Russia or the USA wants a full blown war against Turkey, but both sides are hoping that Turkey goes to war against the other. You end up in war with Russia, American wins, you end up at war with America, Russia wins. Which ever nation goes to war against Turkey they end up serving every geopolitical advantage that a nation like Turkey offers to their enemy.
In a way its the same reason Turkey was able to stay neutral in world war 2. If the Nazi's attacked Turkey, you defacto pushed Turkey onto the soviet side with out firing a bullet and vice versa. Turkey needs to exploit this geography instead of being held prisoner by it.
Things like this should have been taken into account over Syria.
But i've seen nothing from AK party that shows me that have any real statecraft skill when it comes geopolitics. They are good at winning elections, manipulating people in Turkey, but outside of Turkey absolutely incompetent.