Live Conflict Myanmar Civil War

Isa Khan · Jun 9, 2024

Nilgiri · Jun 9, 2024

Deliorman said:
Can anyone from the region explain who is fighting who and what are they fighting for? Who should we support?

Don't support anyone if you are sitting far enough away. All sides are now pretty morally degraded, the junta probably just the worst of them though (since they had the final authority/responsibility of the collective state).

One things for sure though, PRC is in lot of trouble when the situation stabilises downstream.... Burmese people understand who the largest outside nefarious force has been a very long time now.

West and India will act accordingly on the rebound arc later. It will augment the JP-SK-TW-PH-VN arc quite nicely.

PRC/CCP has only itself to blame in the end regarding the level of animosity it has cultivated among the Burmese people.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-southeast-asias-worries-american-and-chinese-influence/

chibiyabi · Jun 9, 2024

Nilgiri said:
Don't support anyone if you are sitting far enough away. All sides are now pretty morally degraded, the junta probably just the worst of them though (since they had the final authority/responsibility of the collective state).

One things for sure though, PRC is in lot of trouble when the situation stabilises downstream.... Burmese people understand who the largest outside nefarious force has been a very long time now.

West and India will act accordingly on the rebound arc later. It will augment the JP-SK-TW-PH-VN arc quite nicely.

PRC/CCP has only itself to blame in the end regarding the level of animosity it has cultivated among the Burmese people.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-southeast-asias-worries-american-and-chinese-influence/

View attachment 68600

your graphics is non sense...

Isa Khan · Jun 11, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800536157639647352

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800573906824413599

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799445916983976296

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799381465446203585

Isa Khan · Jun 12, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1772565867831664930

Isa Khan · Jun 15, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1801624450527326386

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1801589334459510898

Isa Khan · Jun 15, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1801990464578400590

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1802022699037831455

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1801945830942761086

Michael Corleone · Jun 16, 2024

Isa Khan said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1796919776201015512

Myanmar is a lost cause

Saithan · Jun 17, 2024

Well with so many groups around, I was hoping the Rohingya would have their own rebel group that was reliable and strong. Considering how everyone seems to trash the Rohingya muslims, that's what I think would be best.

But I'm just an outsider and don't really understand the complexity.

Agha Sher · Jun 17, 2024

At least with Bangladesh's support, they could create a friendly buffer state on a part of the border.

Afif · Jun 17, 2024

Saithan said:
Well with so many groups around, I was hoping the Rohingya would have their own rebel group that was reliable and strong. Considering how everyone seems to trash the Rohingya muslims, that's what I think would be best.

But I'm just an outsider and don't really understand the complexity.

BD has no appetite for fighting a proxy war. Tbh, if you see the recent examples, even super power or strong regional powers often failed to wage a successful prolonged proxy war without making it a cluster fuck. Maybe if you are insanely ideologically driven like Iran, then you could get a shot to relative success. Others not so much.

However, if we had a stronger military and more political will, we probably could've waged a limited air campaign to deter the genocide.

Saithan · Jun 17, 2024

Afif said:
BD has no appetite for fighting a proxy war. Tbh, if you see the recent examples, even super power or strong regional powers often failed to wage a successful prolonged proxy war without making it a cluster fuck. Maybe if you are insanely ideologically driven like Iran, then you could get a shot to relative success. Others not so much.

However, if we had a stronger military and more political will, we probably could've waged a limited air campaign to deter the genocide.

I agree, that it takes money, and political will to engange in proxy war as a country. But I was thinking more in lines with using arms merchants or such to ensure supply to these proxies without getting involved as a government and such.

Kinda like the movie with Nicolas Cage in Warlords. So a non committed way of ensuring they have fighting power at least.

Isa Khan · Jun 17, 2024

Saithan said:
Well with so many groups around, I was hoping the Rohingya would have their own rebel group that was reliable and strong. Considering how everyone seems to trash the Rohingya muslims, that's what I think would be best.

But I'm just an outsider and don't really understand the complexity.

ARSA & RSA are useless groups just like the Rohingyas. They are only focused on dominating the refugee camps. NUG offered citizenships if Rohingyas join the PDF but I was shocked to see no response from them. So we can't really blame people for trashing them. They are only good at sitting around idly instead of fighting for their rights & doing what's necessary.

Saithan · Jun 17, 2024

Isa Khan said:
ARSA & RSA are useless groups just like the Rohingyas. They are only focused on dominating the refugee camps. NUG offered citizenships if Rohingyas join the PDF but I was shocked to see no response from them. So we can't really blame people for trashing them. They are only good at sitting around idly instead of fighting for their rights & doing what's necessary.

Perhaps negotiations didn't go well.

Afif · Jun 17, 2024

Isa Khan said:
ARSA & RSA are useless groups just like the Rohingyas. They are only focused on dominating the refugee camps. NUG offered citizenships if Rohingyas join the PDF but I was shocked to see no response from them. So we can't really blame people for trashing them. They are only good at sitting around idly instead of fighting for their rights & doing what's necessary.

Unnecessary criticism against people who were genocided not long ago. NUG don't control sh*t. Ethnic Insurgents on the ground are no different toward Rohingyas than Junta.

Also, they are gonna fight with what exactly? BD is not giving them weapons. Neither is anyone else. Realistically, they don't have a chance. Unless we take the initiative.

Isa Khan · Jun 17, 2024

Saithan said:
Perhaps negotiations didn't go well.

Doubt that they made any approach at all. After Mohib Ullah's death there was no effective note-worthy leadership only motive to control the camps, smuggling & leaving illegally for other country with or without Bangladeshi passports. Their demand is citizenship with basic human rights & safe repatriation so I fail to see how negotiation won't go well IF THERE WAS ANY actually.

Even if there was no negotiation what else they did so far? It's not like there wasn't any issue before 2017. Since 1978 they are being oppressed but unlike other groups they did little to fight for their rights.

Just look at PDF, they were using improvised hand-made weapon first now they have better ones like Type-81, M-16 etc, even improvised drone. How quickly they improved. If a small portion of 10 million Rohingyas were eager to fight, things could've been different in Arakan.

But they just want UN, Bangladesh & foreign countries to take care of them and do their work. The money they earn from drug smuggling, robbery & working abroad illegally mostly spent on their comfy living in camps instead of any armed movement or buying arms from black market.

It's not about necessary/unnecessary criticism. It’s truth. The locals absolutely despise them as they loose their job market, land because of them. Even PM is now annoyed about them. She finally learned her lesson and stopped taking more of them but the damage is already done.

Isa Khan · Jun 18, 2024

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1802356219249586678

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1802595705610969317

chibiyabi · Jun 18, 2024

Isa Khan said:
Doubt that they made any approach at all. After Mohib Ullah's death there was no effective note-worthy leadership only motive to control the camps, smuggling & leaving illegally for other country with or without Bangladeshi passports. Their demand is citizenship with basic human rights & safe repatriation so I fail to see how negotiation won't go well IF THERE WAS ANY actually.

Even if there was no negotiation what else they did so far? It's not like there wasn't any issue before 2017. Since 1978 they are being oppressed but unlike other groups they did little to fight for their rights.

Just look at PDF, they were using improvised hand-made weapon first now they have better ones like Type-81, M-16 etc, even improvised drone. How quickly they improved. If a small portion of 10 million Rohingyas were eager to fight, things could've been different in Arakan.

But they just want UN, Bangladesh & foreign countries to take care of them and do their work. The money they earn from drug smuggling, robbery & working abroad illegally mostly spent on their comfy living in camps instead of any armed movement or buying arms from black market.

It's not about necessary/unnecessary criticism. It’s truth. The locals absolutely despise them as they loose their job market, land because of them. Even PM is now annoyed about them. She finally learned her lesson and stopped taking more of them but the damage is already done.

sadly but true..