TR Oil & Gas Exploration Update & Discussion

Bogeyman 

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That's the real issue for this pipeline. Turkey doesn't recognize South Cyprus. Cyprus and Israel doesn't recognize Northern Cyprus. You either pass through Cypriot or Syrian EEZ. As Syria is a non starter, how does this work? Do we push for North Cypriot recognition, recognize South Cyprus in return? That is one tall order. Almost makes East Med more believable to be honest.
It was literally a fantastic scenario. :D
 

TheInsider

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Would be nice but, how will they solve the pipeline going through S Cyprus and Syrian waters?
Syrian waters? South Cyprus?

This is the proposed pipeline. Neither Greeks nor Syrians can say anything about this. If Turkiye and Israel agree I doubt there is anyone in the region that can oppose this deal.

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TR_123456

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Netanyahu is expected to visit Ankara in the following months to discuss several subjects. The main subject of the visit will be a gas pipeline that will connect Israeli gas fields to Turkiye.
What happened to their proposed Israel-Greece gas pipeline?
 

Sanchez

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If Turkiye and Israel agree I doubt there is anyone in the region that can oppose this deal.
South Cyprus, EU, UN.

Without South Cypriot agreement, looks dead on water to me. If Israel was to recognize N Cyprus, which I doubt is happening, it'd be a great start though.
 

dBSPL

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Here is the mid-term plan:

- KSA, Qatar and UAE gas will be combined with Iraqi gas to be transported to Turkiye and from there to Europe.

- Another issue is direct access to Turkmen gas without Russian and Iranian control. The aim is to connect Kazakh and Turkmen sources to TANAP via Trans-Hazar.

- The third pillar is to bring Israeli + East Med gas to the Turkish shore and increase Europe's energy diversification. Turkiye does not exclude Greece in its own projection on this issue, but rather keeps it as one of the key countries of the project.

- Leg 4 is Libyan gas to Italy. The triangle of the Libyan government, Turkiye and Italy has to be strong.

This new 4-pillar energy perspective is the EU's only alternative to push Russia out completely and strengthen its position vis-à-vis the US.

Off-topic: 15 years ago the economic size of the EU region was almost twice that of the US, now the US has surpassed the entire EU region combine, these are the shadowy issues that we don't talk about much, but it is a fact that security and energy dependencies for the EU need to be addressed from scratch.

The key country here is Turkiye. A Turkiye-friendly EU can break both of these pressures.

Turkiye's successes in bringing its domestic resources into the economy through new discoveries and starting to meet domestic demand will further strengthen this effect. Turkiye's path to energy independence will also pave the way for a more independent EU. So, at a certain point there will be things that we will have to fight jointly with some EU countries.
 

Merzifonlu

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A Turkiye-friendly EU
Are you sure, Sir? LOL

No such EU exists. If such an EU existed, they would not have made Greek Cypriots members of the EU. Gas will pass through Cyprus because Greek Cypriots, who were thirsty for Turkish blood, are also thirsty for real water these days. The EU cannot solve Greek Cypriots of water problems either. They need water from Turkiye.

 
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dBSPL

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I agree with @Merzifonlu ,there is no such thing especially after the UK leaving the EU.
If they dont need us they dont know us.
Üstadım, there is only one country on the earth that is Turkiye's natural ally and that it can rely on under all circumstances, and national unity is gradually turning into unity of destiny.

Other than that, wherever you put your finger on the globe, you will not find a friend. This is my point of view. What I mean by 'Turkiye-friendly' is that common interests create a common ground for cooperation. And what I am basically saying is not unconditionally going back to the door of the EU. On the contrary, what I wanted to say above is that the EU's security and economic interests require a closer relationship with Turkiye. The EU may not prefer this pragmatic path, it may want to keep obsessive hostilities alive and indirectly undermine its own interests, but that is another story and not what I am referring to.

It is also important not to think of it in a self-centered way. The post-modern world order is essentially a tangle of frienemies. Interests always speaks first, and when interests are exhausted, enmity speaks.
 
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Kitra

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Would be nice but, how will they solve the pipeline going through S Cyprus and Syrian waters?
The problem is not politics but nature and economy.

The waters west of Cyprus are very very deep (2000m-3000m) and long (>1000km pf new pipes) so the pipes needs to be thick walled limiting the throughput. So all gas or oil must go along or through Turkey for economical reasons. For Turkey, they need 400km at 400m

There is simply no other realistic choice otherwise the Israelis would have taken it in a second.
 
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dBSPL

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The problem is not politics but nature and economy.

The waters west of Cyprus are very very deep (2000m-3000m) and long (>1000km pf new pipes) so the pipes needs to be thick walled limiting the throughput. So all gas or oil must go along or through Turkey for economical reasons. For Turkey, they need

There is simply no other realistic choice otherwise the Israelis would have taken it in a second.
If this unrealizable absurd dream to exclude TR had not been pursued, the EU would have a Mediterranean pipeline by now, which would have made Israeli gas, as well as resources from other countries, available to EU industry.

The EU economy is slowing down alarmingly. What kept the EU strong was its collective economic power. In just 20 years, the EU region has fallen behind the US and China. It was something that if you entrusted your security to the US, one day it would take it from you. If on one side of the scale there is anti-TR bigotry, on the other side there is the next 50 years of the EU, which at the moment seems to be playing the role of a 'sick man'.
 

TheInsider

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South Cyprus, EU, UN.

Without South Cypriot agreement, looks dead on water to me. If Israel was to recognize N Cyprus, which I doubt is happening, it'd be a great start though.
Who gives a f*ck about South Cyrus EU and UN. If Israel is on board so is the US. Greece has no say in the pipeline. The route of the pipeline is very favorable for us so I doubt South Cyprus can do anything other than protest. The Greek Eastmed pipeline is dead. It is expensive and hard to construct in very deep waters. There is not enough gas to make it profitable. Greek infrastructure is really bad and needs huge investments. Turkiye is a big NG market, has state-of-the-art infrastructure, and offers the best service, piping, pumping, etc prices.
 

TheInsider

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That's the real issue for this pipeline. Turkey doesn't recognize South Cyprus. Cyprus and Israel doesn't recognize Northern Cyprus. You either pass through Cypriot or Syrian EEZ. As Syria is a non starter, how does this work? Do we push for North Cypriot recognition, recognize South Cyprus in return? That is one tall order. Almost makes East Med more believable to be honest.
South can agree or watch when we start piping. Their choice. We can always say it is the rightful TRNC economic zone and send warships against anyone who is willing to stop it. Those big OPVs are being constructed for a reason.
 

Kitra

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South can agree or watch when we start piping. Their choice. We can always say it is the rightful TRNC economic zone and send warships against anyone who is willing to stop it. Those big OPVs are being constructed for a reason.
I understand what you are saying but the pipeline should be built and owned by Israel.

That way they will take all the economic risk, defend it and nobody would write bs article articles about Turkey occupying Cyprus. It would also force Israel and later others to acknowledge turkish authorities in northern Cyprus.
 

Sanchez

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South can agree or watch when we start piping. Their choice. We can always say it is the rightful TRNC economic zone and send warships against anyone who is willing to stop it. Those big OPVs are being constructed for a reason.
They are being built to defend our own. We already lost a decade of our potential to this kind of rhetoric. We no longer have the time to spare.
There won't be a Israeli Turkish gas deal where South Cyprus isn't a part of in some manner.
 

TheInsider

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They are being built to defend our own. We already lost a decade of our potential to this kind of rhetoric. We no longer have the time to spare.
There won't be a Israeli Turkish gas deal where South Cyprus isn't a part of in some manner.
It is not the same. If a deal is signed with Israel, suddenly some Saars might show up around the pipeline. That pipeline will most likely be co-owned by Turkiye and Israel. I don't think there is anyone that can hit a pipeline that carriers Israeli gas and live to tell the tale.
 

Sanchez

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It's not about hitting it, it's about building it in the first place.
 

what

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And financing it. Who will pay for it? Who will finance it?
The EU will probably sanction any country or entity that get involved without Southern Cypriot approval.
 

TheInsider

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Natural gas discovery near Ordu and oil discovery near Rize are reported. This might be the rumored announcement in September. The sizes of the reserves and the value of the discoveries are currently unknown.

Oil production reached 75k barrels this month. Steady increase as new wells are drilled on recently discovered fields.

An Upward revision is also expected for Sakarya Gas Field.
 
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