Live Conflict Pakistan-India Tensions

[Nilgiri]

There are some engagements going on over Jammu right now, we will have to see what that all is later.

The problem is its a heavy drone attack too it seems, so have to give time to play out again.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920513365459226650

 

[Saithan]

Unfortunately I am not sure we're going to be finding out too much. Comparing to the social media sharings during Libya operations, the tb2 footages from Karabagha. Ukraine and such. I think it's because of the AI.

 

[Nilgiri]

Will again have to wait and let some time play out to get idea of whats going on right now

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920510667473211640

 

[Nilgiri]

Have to go work and will be busy for a while.

Everyone keep to the forum rules and take everything "ongoing" with requisite grains of salt etc

We can only piece together things downstream more objectively.

 

[Sanchez]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920378935482691778

@Nilgiri I do want to learn your thinking on this. Indian rhetoric originally was "we only struck terrorist targets and not military ones and ask Pakistanis to not retaliate." That seems to have gone out of window after the apparent Pakistani air response to missile dumpers and aircraft loss and the medium-heavy shelling in the LOC, which is a semi occurrent thing. Was the plan originally to send this drone salvo as a second wave, or are we seeing an escalation by India as a response either after talks with partners or out of desperation.

 

[Afif]

Exclusive: Pakistan's Chinese-made jet brought down two Indian fighter aircraft, US officials say​

• US officials confirm Pakistan used Chinese J-10 jets against Indian aircraft
• India has not acknowledged loss of planes
• Pakistan claims downing five Indian planes, including three Rafale jets

ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - A top Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, two U.S. officials told Reuters, marking a major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet.

https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/

---

Along with what @Nilgiri wrote in the previous page w.r.t to the bigger picture and complicating factors that are at play here from an Indian perspective, I just wanna add from other pov that, PAF has demonstrated to be a competent force. Also we probably need to get comfortable with the fact that Chinese systems work as advertised.

Looking at the disintegration of Rafale body it indicate it was likely hit by PL-15 which uses continuous rod warhead unlike HQ9 that uses blast fragmentation warhead.

It does not necessarily trash Rafale. I believe a Different outcome between rafale and J10C (as part of a broader BVR engagement) is very much possible in a different scenario. However, IMO the main takeaway here is that, Chinese systems today are competitive against their top tier western counterparts as J10C PL15 combo has proven to be (or at least seems to be) effective in real world combat scenario. @Sanchez

 

[Zapper]

@Nilgiri I do want to learn your thinking on this. Indian rhetoric originally was "we only struck terrorist targets and not military ones and ask Pakistanis to not retaliate." That seems to have gone out of window after the apparent Pakistani air response to missile dumpers and aircraft loss and the medium-heavy shelling in the LOC, which is a semi occurrent thing. Was the plan originally to send this drone salvo as a second wave, or are we seeing an escalation by India as a response either after talks with partners or out of desperation.

I'll let @Nilgiri answer but I'd like to add one point here. Even before the news of pakistanis claiming to down IAF jets came out, our ex-IA chief and a few others in the establishment said the initial missile strikes on terrorist infra was only Phase-1 of Op-Sindhoor which clearly indicates the Harop drone strikes were pre-planned.

Most might assume this is a retaliation of the alleged claims of downing IAF jets but more importantly, PA bombed our border towns with artillery which caused widespread damage to civilian lives and infra

 

[Sanchez]

PAF has demonstrated to be a competent force

I don't think this was ever disputed. If it was, it was a mistake by that person. It's an air force supplied and trained by US for decades and have a clear enemy to train against for the last 60 years. Add very competent aircraft like JF-17, which is a tailor built cheaper F-16 for Pakistan and the J-10C, which probably carries one of the most modern AESA radars in active service, it was always clear that they would still have teeth.

Pakistan's issue is not PAF. It's about climbing the escalation ladder. And they either need to keep climbing it or take the loss of lost water rights in the north and try to have talks with India to overturn their decision to cut of water access in a much less favorable position. PAF will still do its work, but to what end, that is what matters for millions of people, not Rafales getting trashed.

 

[Afif]

I don't think this was ever disputed. If it was, it was a mistake by that person. It's an air force supplied and trained by US for decades and have a clear enemy to train against for the last 60 years. Add very competent aircraft like JF-17, which is a tailor built cheaper F-16 for Pakistan and the J-10C, which probably carries one of the most modern AESA radars in active service, it was always clear that they would still have teeth.

Pakistan's issue is not PAF. It's about climbing the escalation ladder. And they either need to keep climbing it or take the loss of lost water rights in the north and try to have talks with India to overturn their decision to cut of water access in a much less favorable position. PAF will still do its work, but to what end, that is what matters for millions of people, not Rafales getting trashed.

Agreed.

 

[Saithan]

And I would expect China (those in China) to play along and divert the entire rivers away from India to elsewhere, anyone thinking they won't or can't is horrible wrong. Honestly I think this is going to escalate and go pretty bad.

 

[mTT]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920551798919553526

 

[Zapper]

And I would expect China (those in China) to play along and divert the entire rivers away from India to elsewhere, anyone thinking they won't or can't is horrible wrong. Honestly I think this is going to escalate and go pretty bad.

The river in question is Brahmaputra where ~30% of it's annual flow originates in China while the rest 65-70% is contributed by tributaries and rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh & Assam states of India

If China blocks or diverts, it wouldn't affect catastrophically but would be noticeable since the monsoon season provides bulk of the river's volume in India & B'desh. The bigger concern here is if China establishes run-of-the-river dams that might alter timing and flow patterns, not just total volume

 

[mTT]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920558413307674854

 

[mTT]

US official speaking to Reuters:

A Chinese J-10 fighter jet shot down at least two Indian military aircraft.

At least one of the Indian planes shot down by Pakistan was a French-made Rafale fighter jet.

F-16s were not used to shoot down the Indian planes.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920585224515137636

 

[Nilgiri]

@Nilgiri I do want to learn your thinking on this. Indian rhetoric originally was "we only struck terrorist targets and not military ones and ask Pakistanis to not retaliate." That seems to have gone out of window after the apparent Pakistani air response to missile dumpers and aircraft loss and the medium-heavy shelling in the LOC, which is a semi occurrent thing. Was the plan originally to send this drone salvo as a second wave, or are we seeing an escalation by India as a response either after talks with partners or out of desperation.

I'll let @Nilgiri answer but I'd like to add one point here. Even before the news of pakistanis claiming to down IAF jets came out, our ex-IA chief and a few others in the establishment said the initial missile strikes on terrorist infra was only Phase-1 of Op-Sindhoor which clearly indicates the Harop drone strikes were pre-planned.

Most might assume this is a retaliation of the alleged claims of downing IAF jets but more importantly, PA bombed our border towns with artillery which caused widespread damage to civilian lives and infra

It has to do with whats mentioned in this release here mostly, that mTT posted:

View attachment 74978

That India says drone + missile attacks occurred (past the artillery barrages at LoC and "conflict window kept open for another phase etc etc") and were responded to... (and also whatever else may be going on that is not being released or leaked by having civvies in area etc)

Each side will have its version of enemy IAD/assets being targets (when that is distilled out later).....and then whatever collateral occured etc etc. (and whatever level of propaganda and continued fog of war is inserted in these).

Damien has an earlier snapshot of the drone + missile (claimed by either side as happening upon them etc... and there is patchwork footage in social media percolating too so far, past the 99% trolling + misinfo/disinfo and garbage chatter):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920423612202254462

 

[Nilgiri]

The above is part of reason AFAIK, Karachi airport has now re-opened (it is southern enough etc). Pakistani OSINT friend I trust tells me most other airports (to the north in Pakistan) are closed.

India also has closed a large number of airports in North India for a few days:

Indian Airports Temporarily Closed Until May 10th, Check Complete List Here, after Operation Sindoor

Due to Operation Sindoor, 21 airports in northern India are closed until May 10, 2025. Airlines like Air India and IndiGo have cancelled flights, providing refunds and rescheduling options.

www.jagranjosh.com

Majority of other regions of India nothing has changed in comparison.

Other than that iirc for Indian side:

- All schools, colleges, unis have been closed in (Indian) Punjab state indefinitely

- New Delhi railway station, Connaught place and India Gate have been "cleared out" (as some kind of precaution for some threat on ground detected it is speculated...but unknown at this point).

 

[mTT]

" Pakistan destroys India's S-400 air defense system. "

FAKE NEWSSS

S400 image from 2024, shot by Ukraine in the Crimea region.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1801177654579654976

Spoiler: x

@Bogeyman dikkat et