Analysis PLA Taiwan Scenario questions

KCB

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Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the scenario off to get their opinion and perspective from Taiwanese, to get a better idea of how possible scenarios might play out. Or, for that matter, with anyone who believes they could provide realistic feedback. In effect war gaming scenarios, responding to elements of the scenario as it develops. Look forward to chatting.
 

Nilgiri

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Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the scenario off to get their opinion and perspective from Taiwanese, to get a better idea of how possible scenarios might play out. Or, for that matter, with anyone who believes they could provide realistic feedback. In effect war gaming scenarios, responding to elements of the scenario as it develops. Look forward to chatting.

Hi and welcome to the forum.

I am not Taiwanese myself, but wargaming is something of a pursuit of mine as well.

I think for this one (to flesh out the wargaming piece by piece I have done so far), we would need to first:

A) Assume its full invasion scenario rather than only a punitive action. Also assume/account for some allied help to ROC military from: US and Japan....which needs to be stated as to the level/commitment as its significant factor in the whole scenario.

B) Start at what the LST/LHD/LPD (i.e amphibious assault) capability of the PLAN is (in raw troop+support+logistical conveyance numbers especially) and how its oriented relative to what the beachheads would need (and how many beachheads would be done etc)...as this is the most critical sensitive point for the whole operation (IMO)....going by history and ability of options for the (defender) opponent to interdict at relatively high efficiency if badly planned and executed by the attacker.

C) Work outwards from B as to what would need to be done before, during and after in conjunction with rest of PLAN and other service branches with the context parameters set in A. This will model how ballistic PRC will need to go...and likely add a (self defeating) pyrrhic dimension given the inertia + soft assumed expectations of the asserted contours of promise of "One China" among their establishment and larger populace. This I feel holds a significant nuanced X factor in deterrence value for the CCP establishment's interest and ability to begin with.

I feel B is best place to start, what can PLAN do and what can the opponents array against it, what are their specific strengths and weaknesses (and access to certain knowhow, exercises and experience etc) in this domain are crucial.
 

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Hi and welcome to the forum.

I am not Taiwanese myself, but wargaming is something of a pursuit of mine as well.

I think for this one (to flesh out the wargaming piece by piece I have done so far), we would need to first:

A) Assume its full invasion scenario rather than only a punitive action. Also assume/account for some allied help to ROC military from: US and Japan....which needs to be stated as to the level/commitment as its significant factor in the whole scenario.

B) Start at what the LST/LHD/LPD (i.e amphibious assault) capability of the PLAN is (in raw troop+support+logistical conveyance numbers especially) and how its oriented relative to what the beachheads would need (and how many beachheads would be done etc)...as this is the most critical sensitive point for the whole operation (IMO)....going by history and ability of options for the (defender) opponent to interdict at relatively high efficiency if badly planned and executed by the attacker.

C) Work outwards from B as to what would need to be done before, during and after in conjunction with rest of PLAN and other service branches with the context parameters set in A. This will model how ballistic PRC will need to go...and likely add a (self defeating) pyrrhic dimension given the inertia + soft assumed expectations of the asserted contours of promise of "One China" among their establishment and larger populace. This I feel holds a significant nuanced X factor in deterrence value for the CCP establishment's interest and ability to begin with.

I feel B is best place to start, what can PLAN do and what can the opponents array against it, what are their specific strengths and weaknesses (and access to certain knowhow, exercises and experience etc) in this domain are crucial.
B is a good start point and pretty much where i began. I was curious having listened to a lot experts and realized there was clearly a lot of ambiguity surrounding the IF, HOW and WHEN questions. Im looking at this scenario from the PLA perspective. Personally I have my doubts CCP leadership would be considering this at all for some time to come. Doing the math it would appear 2026 is the earliest you could scrape enough hardware together to land sufficient force on the island and hold a beachhead...possibly, still working on it. Assuming current pace of ship building continues and/or excelerats prior. This story truly begins years before any invasion attempt. There is a lot of shaping and maneuvering within the battle space prior. That work up is important. Regardless of the 'WILL ' or 'NEED' to try, do you first have the stuff to do it? This before we start asking about US/Japan reactions. Can you get enough Combat power onto Taiwanese soil before they counter and defeat that first wave. I would appear to me that would be the critical point. If China loses the initial assault its in a really bad place. If it establishes a beachhead allowing for follow on force Taiwan is in a really bad place.

Using open source material iv compiled a list of amphibious assets, capabilities, PLA units TOE etc. Iv looked at the info regarding beaches and drilled down into google earth to get a look at these beaches and made some preliminary guesses at which beaches might be appropriate. Then the question of strategy, again outside the context of US/Japanese intervention at this point.

Currently rewinding and thinking how this Battle space could be shaped? All those Taiwanese islands just off China main land are very troublesome.

I can muster 3 and a bit amphibious task forces, involving the 72nd 73rd and 74th GAs with assets from Central Theater + to provide you enough concentrated combat power without thinning out to much and still manage 3 main entry points. Including a side show effort on Penghu. But im struggling, i don't have enough assets to mount amphibius demonstrations that might be required to tie down ROC forces where i would like. So...maybe 2028/29?
 

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Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the scenario off to get their opinion and perspective from Taiwanese, to get a better idea of how possible scenarios might play out. Or, for that matter, with anyone who believes they could provide realistic feedback. In effect war gaming scenarios, responding to elements of the scenario as it develops. Look forward to chatting.
We have a member from Taiwan but not active,maybe this thread will trigger him.
Lets wait and see.
 

Nilgiri

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B is a good start point and pretty much where i began. I was curious having listened to a lot experts and realized there was clearly a lot of ambiguity surrounding the IF, HOW and WHEN questions. Im looking at this scenario from the PLA perspective. Personally I have my doubts CCP leadership would be considering this at all for some time to come. Doing the math it would appear 2026 is the earliest you could scrape enough hardware together to land sufficient force on the island and hold a beachhead...possibly, still working on it. Assuming current pace of ship building continues and/or excelerats prior. This story truly begins years before any invasion attempt. There is a lot of shaping and maneuvering within the battle space prior. That work up is important. Regardless of the 'WILL ' or 'NEED' to try, do you first have the stuff to do it? This before we start asking about US/Japan reactions. Can you get enough Combat power onto Taiwanese soil before they counter and defeat that first wave. I would appear to me that would be the critical point. If China loses the initial assault its in a really bad place. If it establishes a beachhead allowing for follow on force Taiwan is in a really bad place.

Using open source material iv compiled a list of amphibious assets, capabilities, PLA units TOE etc. Iv looked at the info regarding beaches and drilled down into google earth to get a look at these beaches and made some preliminary guesses at which beaches might be appropriate. Then the question of strategy, again outside the context of US/Japanese intervention at this point.

Currently rewinding and thinking how this Battle space could be shaped? All those Taiwanese islands just off China main land are very troublesome.

I can muster 3 and a bit amphibious task forces, involving the 72nd 73rd and 74th GAs with assets from Central Theater + to provide you enough concentrated combat power without thinning out to much and still manage 3 main entry points. Including a side show effort on Penghu. But im struggling, i don't have enough assets to mount amphibius demonstrations that might be required to tie down ROC forces where i would like. So...maybe 2028/29?

I'll get back to you on it a bit later. Please do flesh out whatever you want in the meantime.
 

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Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the scenario off to get their opinion and perspective from Taiwanese, to get a better idea of how possible scenarios might play out. Or, for that matter, with anyone who believes they could provide realistic feedback. In effect war gaming scenarios, responding to elements of the scenario as it develops. Look forward to chatting.
Street interview for 3 questions in Taiwan: 1, Are you afraid of mainland China's attack? 2, Is mainland China a friend, a enemy or a rival? 3, Do you prefer Taiwan to be independent, status quo or united with the mainland China?

Almost all of them replied they fear mainland China's attack, but most interviewees think the chance for mainland attack is very small. China is neither an enemy nor a friend, it's more of a rival. they prefer status quo, neither independence nor unification.

 
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The funny thing is that most Taiwan people don't worry about the so called coming mainland attack while it keeps irrelevant foreigners up at night.
 

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Almost all Taiwan entertainers are working in mainland China, almost all Taiwan youth say they would consider working in the mainland and 2 million already are. all Taiwan business people have their business and factories in mainland China.... you tell me how likely a war can break out.
 

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Almost all Taiwan entertainers are working in mainland China, almost all Taiwan youth say they would consider working in the mainland and 2 million already are. all Taiwan business people have their business and factories in mainland China.... you tell me how likely a war can break out.
It's safe to say that Taiwan will remain independent well into the future.
 

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It's safe to say that Taiwan will remain independent well into the future.
As long as they don't change their name, " Republic of China" , everything will be fine, business as usual everyday.
 

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As long as they don't change their name, " Republic of China" , everything will be fine, business as usual everyday.

I don;t think it;s just about names per se. While i have not much read into the finer details historically but i never understood why china keep sending their fighter formation every now & Keep issuing provocative statements wrt to Farmosa aka taiwan aka ROC if it,s just about name.

At it,s face value.. your statement do not convert to ground reality. The way off lately, china have been asserting itself on all it;s neighbours, Thanks to it;s new found wealth... I think max we would see is a skirmish.. I don;t see them having enough to go on full flown conflict against Taiwan.

Full flown invasion is out of question in these days and times unless u r in middle east !!!
 

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I don;t think it;s just about names per se. While i have not much read into the finer details historically
Do some study first, do you know why Taiwan's official name is Republic of China, and what the original cause of mainland vs Taiwan scenario? Suggested read: China's civil war.
 

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Do some study first, do you know why Taiwan's official name is Republic of China, and what the original cause of mainland vs Taiwan scenario? Suggested read: China's civil war.

I said i have not read the finer details Sir... does n;t mean i have not read at all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

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This is precisely why Taiwan needs to invest in SSM saturation capability of Chinese harbour infrastructure in the opening blitz of any war.

PLA and PLAN logistics are heavily dependent on it for amphibious invasion (Staging and execution)....so that is where ROC needs to step up its game to nip as much of that in the bud in a conflict.

Seems Taiwan's planners know these contours:


As much cooperation with Japanese in sub domain needs to also be invested in.

DPP need to start converting relevant amounts of ROC industrial capacity to heavy throughput for both SSMs and subwarfare assets (UUVs that integrate well with JMSDF as priority 1 and USN as priority 2).
 

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This is precisely why Taiwan needs to invest in SSM saturation capability of Chinese harbour infrastructure in the opening blitz of any war.

PLA and PLAN logistics are heavily dependent on it for amphibious invasion (Staging and execution)....so that is where ROC needs to step up its game to nip as much of that in the bud in a conflict.

Seems Taiwan's planners know these contours:


As much cooperation with Japanese in sub domain needs to also be invested in.

DPP need to start converting relevant amounts of ROC industrial capacity to heavy throughput for both SSMs and subwarfare assets (UUVs that integrate well with JMSDF as priority 1 and USN as priority 2).

there should be a multi layered defense, ROC has been testing the Yun Feng long range cruise?? missile that reportedly able to reach Beijing.

the Taiwanese defense planners had already estimate that it needs at least 1200 anti ship missile to defeat an invasion fleet.

there's the hundreds of Hsiung Feng II's and III's which are optimized for to cover the narrow strait, that are road mobile and (some) I believe are placed inside bunkers deep inside Taiwan mountains.

some if these HF II's are reported to have an upgraded version able to hit target as far as 1200Km

and there are orders for a total of 400 new GL Harpoons otw

also part of the deal is the MGM-140 ATACMS quasi ballistic missile with 300KM range, able to hit PLA assembly point. 64 are reportedly ordered.

Taiwan's own air launched cruise missile will join the defense with the domestic Wan Chien ALCM could be used to hit enemy command and control sites, radars, airfields, fuel and food storage. Taiwan air force has an arsenal of over 50+ AGM-88 HARM anti radiation missile, which could be used against ships, consider ships radio emission and the RGM-84 air launched harpoons.

If Taiwan could manage to sink just 1/4th of the initial invasion fleet the chance of success of the PLA troops that will make landfall will exponentially drop. Consider many of Taiwan's beaches that the PLA could use as landfall (west side) site sit right next to built up urban area

taiwan.PNG

The PLA will have a hard time advancing against an entrenched enemy. There's no guarantee that the PLA troops that make landfall could be resupplied with Taiwan kept lobbing missiles at transport ships behind them, which will likely carry their food, ammunition etc. The amount of bullets wasted in a urban set up is far higher than that used in an open terrain as Vietnam stats has shown us.


Ammunition consumption is five to ten times greater in urban envi-ronments than in field environments. (See Chapter 7 for more information.)

here's just a glimpse for the readers to comprehend how hard it is to execute an urban warfare.

this is Aleppo, a city in northwestern Syria
15481-khusruwiyah_mosque_and_aleppo%25252520%2525281%252529-20161214075543.jpg



size:190 km2
population: 1.8M

it took the SAA a brutal 4 years stalemate, in a house to house fighting, whilst having an army of (basically) angry civilians turned rebels.
mind to tell readers that the SAA had complete aerial supremacy over the rebels during the 4years long fight. an infinite amount of supply of artillery, men and machine. not to mention a relatively safe supply line into the city.

here case study#2
Mosul.jpg


City: Mosul
Size: 180 km2
Population: 2M

it took the might of approximately 100.000 Iraqi men, the non-stop 24/7 US+Allies aerial and artillery bombardment, tons of supply and above all an open supply line all the way from Baghdad to Mosul. it took the coalition 9 months+ to capture the entire city as well as it's surroundings.


now here's Taipei.
5cddaee0021b4c06d6337b93.jpg



Size: 1,140 km2
population: 2,646,204

both China and Taiwan knows that PLA only have like twice a year to do an amphibious landing in Taiwan?? otherwise the weather and current will not allow to do so.

not to mention you could only do that in some beachhead which is situated in the western flank of the island.
The Taiwanese would have ample time and preparations to detect and locate PLA massing point on the other side of the strait, the US will likely provide them with this. by that time they would have time to position it's missiles and long range artillery to basically turn your massing point into oblivion.

even if let's say the PLA manage to miraculously have enough transport ship to transport their troops, the PLA would still have to face losses from Taiwanese anti-ship missiles.
The Taiwan strait is like 180km wide, in peacetime you'll need hours to cross the strait, in wartime it'll took longer consider that you'd have to slow down to avoid minefields, etc. If you manage to land what's left of your troops in Taiwan beaches, you'll have to fight Taiwanese men in those beaches, which not even in the best of situation will take a day.

After you secured the beachhead, you'll somewhat have to do with your limited men on the island to face and subdue the entirety of the island as well as it's cities, where ROC troops are waiting in ambush. Urban warfare and mountainous terrain as I have pointed above greatly benefited the defender. China will have to devote a significant resources just trying to defend their lifeline (transport ships carrying war materials) all the while Taiwan kept targeting them from the continuous lobbing of missiles.

the situation that Taiwanese military faces in regard to the PLA is not as dire of that the Syrian rebels and ISIS against the SAA and coalition.


that city (Taipei) is just one you would have to conquer, there's a lot of mega urban settlement in Taiwan, like Taichung.

The odds that the PLA men will have to face is just simply ginormous. we're not even talking about if the US and Japan decide to intervene.
 
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beijingwalker

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The reason why PLA can take control of China so fast against ROC's much better equipped army was because ROC's army ran away faster than PLA can go after them.
One Taiwanese told me that PRC doesn't have to attack Taiwan, just test fire some missiles around the island and in a couple of hours all Taiwan airports will be packed with people trying to get the first flight out , Taiwan 民心脆弱。They know themselves the best.

And there are significant number of the population who support unification with China, enough fifth columns for PRC.

PRC's flags in Taiwan
 
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Nilgiri

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there should be a multi layered defense, ROC has been testing the Yun Feng long range cruise?? missile that reportedly able to reach Beijing.

the Taiwanese defense planners had already estimate that it needs at least 1200 anti ship missile to defeat an invasion fleet.

there's the hundreds of Hsiung Feng II's and III's which are optimized for to cover the narrow strait, that are road mobile and (some) I believe are placed inside bunkers deep inside Taiwan mountains.

some if these HF II's are reported to have an upgraded version able to hit target as far as 1200Km

and there are orders for a total of 400 new GL Harpoons otw

also part of the deal is the MGM-140 ATACMS quasi ballistic missile with 300KM range, able to hit PLA assembly point. 64 are reportedly ordered.

Taiwan's own air launched cruise missile will join the defense with the domestic Wan Chien ALCM could be used to hit enemy command and control sites, radars, airfields, fuel and food storage. Taiwan air force has an arsenal of over 50+ AGM-88 HARM anti radiation missile, which could be used against ships, consider ships radio emission and the RGM-84 air launched harpoons.

If Taiwan could manage to sink just 1/4th of the initial invasion fleet the chance of success of the PLA troops that will make landfall will exponentially climb. Consider many of Taiwan's beaches that the PLA could use as landfall (west side) site sit right next to built up urban area

View attachment 30734

The PLA will have a hard time advancing against an entrenched enemy. There's no guarantee that the PLA troops that make landfall could be resupplied with Taiwan kept lobbing missiles at transport ships behind them, which will likely carry their food, ammunition etc. The amount of bullets wasted in a urban set up is far higher than that used in an open terrain as Vietnam stats has shown us.


Ammunition consumption is five to ten times greater in urban envi-ronments than in field environments. (See Chapter 7 for more information.)

here's just a glimpse for the readers to comprehend how hard it is to execute an urban warfare.

this is Aleppo, a city in northwestern Syria
15481-khusruwiyah_mosque_and_aleppo%25252520%2525281%252529-20161214075543.jpg



size:190 km2
population: 1.8M

it took the SAA a brutal 4 years stalemate, in a house to house fighting, whilst having an army of (basically) angry civilians turned rebels.
mind to tell readers that the SAA had complete aerial supremacy over the rebels during the 4years long fight. an infinite amount of supply of artillery, men and machine. not to mention a relatively safe supply line into the city.

here case study#2
Mosul.jpg


City: Mosul
Size: 180 km2
Population: 2M

it took the might of approximately 100.000 Iraqi men, the non-stop 24/7 US+Allies aerial and artillery bombardment, tons of supply and above all an open supply line all the way from Baghdad to Mosul. it took the coalition 9 months+ to capture the entire city as well as it's surroundings.


now here's Taipei.
5cddaee0021b4c06d6337b93.jpg



Size: 1,140 km2
population: 2,646,204

both China and Taiwan knows that PLA only have like twice a year to do an amphibious landing in Taiwan?? otherwise the weather and current will not allow to do so.

not to mention you could only do that in some beachhead which is situated in the western flank of the island.
The Taiwanese would have ample time and preparations to detect and locate PLA massing point on the other side of the strait, the US will likely provide them with this. by that time they would have time to position it's missiles and long range artillery to basically turn your massing point into oblivion.

even if let's say the PLA manage to miraculously have enough transport ship to transport their troops, the PLA would still have to face losses from Taiwanese anti-ship missiles.
The Taiwan strait is like 180km wide, in peacetime you'll need hours to cross the strait, in wartime it'll took longer consider that you'd have to slow down to avoid minefields, etc. If you manage to land what's left of your troops in Taiwan beaches, you'll have to fight Taiwanese men in those beaches, which not even in the best of situation will take a day.

After you secured the beachhead, you'll somewhat have to do with your limited men on the island to face and subdue the entirety of the island as well as it's cities, where ROC troops are waiting in ambush. Urban warfare and mountainous terrain as I have pointed above greatly benefited the defender. China will have to devote a significant resources just trying to defend their lifeline (transport ships carrying war materials) all the while Taiwan kept targeting them from the continuous lobbing of missiles.

the situation that Taiwanese military faces in regard to the PLA is not as dire of that the Syrian rebels and ISIS against the SAA and coalition.
24 hours to reclaim Taiwan is a fantasy.

that city (Taipei) is just one you would have to conquer, there's a lot of mega urban settlement in Taiwan, like Taichung.

The odds that the PLA men will have to face is just simply ginormous. we're not even talking about if the US and Japan decide to intervene.

@Paro
 

Azeri441

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if you listen to beijingwalker, he makes it sound like China can capture Taiwan in matter of minutes, the reality is it will cause massive regional war, if not nuclear.
With massive losses on both sides.
 

beijingwalker

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if you listen to beijingwalker, he makes it sound like China can capture Taiwan in matter of minutes, the reality is it will cause massive regional war, if not nuclear.
With massive losses on both sides.
When did I say China can capture Taiwan in minutes? Besides, Taiwan doesn't have nuclear weapons.
 
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