Analysis PLA Taiwan Scenario questions

KCB

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Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the scenario off to get their opinion and perspective from Taiwanese, to get a better idea of how possible scenarios might play out. Or, for that matter, with anyone who believes they could provide realistic feedback. In effect war gaming scenarios, responding to elements of the scenario as it develops. Look forward to chatting.
 

Nilgiri

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Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the scenario off to get their opinion and perspective from Taiwanese, to get a better idea of how possible scenarios might play out. Or, for that matter, with anyone who believes they could provide realistic feedback. In effect war gaming scenarios, responding to elements of the scenario as it develops. Look forward to chatting.

Hi and welcome to the forum.

I am not Taiwanese myself, but wargaming is something of a pursuit of mine as well.

I think for this one (to flesh out the wargaming piece by piece I have done so far), we would need to first:

A) Assume its full invasion scenario rather than only a punitive action. Also assume/account for some allied help to ROC military from: US and Japan....which needs to be stated as to the level/commitment as its significant factor in the whole scenario.

B) Start at what the LST/LHD/LPD (i.e amphibious assault) capability of the PLAN is (in raw troop+support+logistical conveyance numbers especially) and how its oriented relative to what the beachheads would need (and how many beachheads would be done etc)...as this is the most critical sensitive point for the whole operation (IMO)....going by history and ability of options for the (defender) opponent to interdict at relatively high efficiency if badly planned and executed by the attacker.

C) Work outwards from B as to what would need to be done before, during and after in conjunction with rest of PLAN and other service branches with the context parameters set in A. This will model how ballistic PRC will need to go...and likely add a (self defeating) pyrrhic dimension given the inertia + soft assumed expectations of the asserted contours of promise of "One China" among their establishment and larger populace. This I feel holds a significant nuanced X factor in deterrence value for the CCP establishment's interest and ability to begin with.

I feel B is best place to start, what can PLAN do and what can the opponents array against it, what are their specific strengths and weaknesses (and access to certain knowhow, exercises and experience etc) in this domain are crucial.
 

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Hi and welcome to the forum.

I am not Taiwanese myself, but wargaming is something of a pursuit of mine as well.

I think for this one (to flesh out the wargaming piece by piece I have done so far), we would need to first:

A) Assume its full invasion scenario rather than only a punitive action. Also assume/account for some allied help to ROC military from: US and Japan....which needs to be stated as to the level/commitment as its significant factor in the whole scenario.

B) Start at what the LST/LHD/LPD (i.e amphibious assault) capability of the PLAN is (in raw troop+support+logistical conveyance numbers especially) and how its oriented relative to what the beachheads would need (and how many beachheads would be done etc)...as this is the most critical sensitive point for the whole operation (IMO)....going by history and ability of options for the (defender) opponent to interdict at relatively high efficiency if badly planned and executed by the attacker.

C) Work outwards from B as to what would need to be done before, during and after in conjunction with rest of PLAN and other service branches with the context parameters set in A. This will model how ballistic PRC will need to go...and likely add a (self defeating) pyrrhic dimension given the inertia + soft assumed expectations of the asserted contours of promise of "One China" among their establishment and larger populace. This I feel holds a significant nuanced X factor in deterrence value for the CCP establishment's interest and ability to begin with.

I feel B is best place to start, what can PLAN do and what can the opponents array against it, what are their specific strengths and weaknesses (and access to certain knowhow, exercises and experience etc) in this domain are crucial.
B is a good start point and pretty much where i began. I was curious having listened to a lot experts and realized there was clearly a lot of ambiguity surrounding the IF, HOW and WHEN questions. Im looking at this scenario from the PLA perspective. Personally I have my doubts CCP leadership would be considering this at all for some time to come. Doing the math it would appear 2026 is the earliest you could scrape enough hardware together to land sufficient force on the island and hold a beachhead...possibly, still working on it. Assuming current pace of ship building continues and/or excelerats prior. This story truly begins years before any invasion attempt. There is a lot of shaping and maneuvering within the battle space prior. That work up is important. Regardless of the 'WILL ' or 'NEED' to try, do you first have the stuff to do it? This before we start asking about US/Japan reactions. Can you get enough Combat power onto Taiwanese soil before they counter and defeat that first wave. I would appear to me that would be the critical point. If China loses the initial assault its in a really bad place. If it establishes a beachhead allowing for follow on force Taiwan is in a really bad place.

Using open source material iv compiled a list of amphibious assets, capabilities, PLA units TOE etc. Iv looked at the info regarding beaches and drilled down into google earth to get a look at these beaches and made some preliminary guesses at which beaches might be appropriate. Then the question of strategy, again outside the context of US/Japanese intervention at this point.

Currently rewinding and thinking how this Battle space could be shaped? All those Taiwanese islands just off China main land are very troublesome.

I can muster 3 and a bit amphibious task forces, involving the 72nd 73rd and 74th GAs with assets from Central Theater + to provide you enough concentrated combat power without thinning out to much and still manage 3 main entry points. Including a side show effort on Penghu. But im struggling, i don't have enough assets to mount amphibius demonstrations that might be required to tie down ROC forces where i would like. So...maybe 2028/29?
 

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Anyone on this forum actually from Taiwan? Im working on a complex scenario and deep dive into PLAs ability to actually invade Taiwan. This, as you can imagine, is quite the process. As a work up to this scenario i was hoping to talk with someone from Taiwan i could bounce elements of the scenario off to get their opinion and perspective from Taiwanese, to get a better idea of how possible scenarios might play out. Or, for that matter, with anyone who believes they could provide realistic feedback. In effect war gaming scenarios, responding to elements of the scenario as it develops. Look forward to chatting.
We have member from Taiwan but not active,maybe this thread will trigger him.
Lets wait and see.
 

Nilgiri

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B is a good start point and pretty much where i began. I was curious having listened to a lot experts and realized there was clearly a lot of ambiguity surrounding the IF, HOW and WHEN questions. Im looking at this scenario from the PLA perspective. Personally I have my doubts CCP leadership would be considering this at all for some time to come. Doing the math it would appear 2026 is the earliest you could scrape enough hardware together to land sufficient force on the island and hold a beachhead...possibly, still working on it. Assuming current pace of ship building continues and/or excelerats prior. This story truly begins years before any invasion attempt. There is a lot of shaping and maneuvering within the battle space prior. That work up is important. Regardless of the 'WILL ' or 'NEED' to try, do you first have the stuff to do it? This before we start asking about US/Japan reactions. Can you get enough Combat power onto Taiwanese soil before they counter and defeat that first wave. I would appear to me that would be the critical point. If China loses the initial assault its in a really bad place. If it establishes a beachhead allowing for follow on force Taiwan is in a really bad place.

Using open source material iv compiled a list of amphibious assets, capabilities, PLA units TOE etc. Iv looked at the info regarding beaches and drilled down into google earth to get a look at these beaches and made some preliminary guesses at which beaches might be appropriate. Then the question of strategy, again outside the context of US/Japanese intervention at this point.

Currently rewinding and thinking how this Battle space could be shaped? All those Taiwanese islands just off China main land are very troublesome.

I can muster 3 and a bit amphibious task forces, involving the 72nd 73rd and 74th GAs with assets from Central Theater + to provide you enough concentrated combat power without thinning out to much and still manage 3 main entry points. Including a side show effort on Penghu. But im struggling, i don't have enough assets to mount amphibius demonstrations that might be required to tie down ROC forces where i would like. So...maybe 2028/29?

I'll get back to you on it a bit later. Please do flesh out whatever you want in the meantime.
 
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