Putin Deal to End Karabakh War Brings Turkey to His Backyard

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Russian President Vladimir Putin brokered a deal to end a 44-day war over the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh after Armenians, facing defeat at the hands of the Azerbaijani army, agreed to stop fighting and withdraw their forces.



Russia began deploying nearly 2,000 troops as peacekeepers on Tuesday under the accord struck with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that will create conditions “for a long-term and complete settlement of the crisis around Nagorno-Karabakh,” Putin said in a televised statement.



Though he’s not a signatory to the deal, the agreement also represents a strategic triumph for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose vocal support of Azerbaijan in the fighting has allowed him to muscle into Russia’s Caucasus backyard. Aliyev said Turkish troops will join the Russian peacekeeping mission in a televised address to the nation early Tuesday.



The peace accord also gives Turkey potential land access across southern Armenia to Azerbaijan and the resource-rich republics of central Asia for the first time, even as Turkey rejects diplomatic relations with its Armenian neighbor and keeps their joint border closed. “We got what we wanted,” Aliyev said in his TV address, in which he mocked Pashinyan for “capitulation” in the war. “You were saying you won’t give back an inch of Azerbaijani territory. What happened, Pashinyan?” he said.




It was “extremely difficult” to accept the deal, Pashinyan said on Facebook. “But we came to the point where the army set us the task of resolving the situation as soon as possible.”

READ MORE: How Azerbaijan-Armenia Dispute Drew In Russia, Turkey: QuickTake

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Aliyev and Erdogan discussed creation of a Turkish-Russian peacekeeping center to monitor the cease-fire in a phone call Tuesday, according to the Azerbaijani leader’s website.

The accord doesn’t mention Turkey’s involvement and there are no plans to place Turkish peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh itself, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call.

The pact effectively sidelines the U.S. and France, enabling Putin and Erdogan to dominate talks on the terms of any future settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia, France and the U.S. tried and failed for decades as international mediators to persuade the two sides to reach a peace agreement after Moscow brokered a 1994 truce to halt a war that killed 30,000 and displaced 1 million amid the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“In this difficult moment, France stands by Armenia’s side,” according to a statement by French President Emmanuel Macron’s office, which said he’ll seek “solid guarantees” of the security of Armenian civilians as part of any lasting agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh. “France strongly calls on Turkey to put an end to its provocations” and “show restraint” over the conflict, it said.


The accord provides for Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh to have secure access to Armenia across a land corridor through Azerbaijani territory that will be policed by Russian forces. It also allows people in the Azerbaijani exclave of Naxcivan bordering Turkey to travel across southern Armenia to Azerbaijan, again with Russian security on the ground.

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“For Putin, it’s the best deal under the circumstances given our reluctance and inability to fight the war on Armenia’s side,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat who’s now a foreign policy analyst in Moscow. “It keeps a functioning relationship with Erdogan while avoiding a major fight.”



Armenian officials acknowledged on Monday that they’d ceded control of the key city of Shushi just 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Nagorno-Karabakh’s capital, Stepanakert, to Azerbaijan. The government there had warned that the loss of the city, which is called Shusha in Azerbaijan, would lead to the fall of the entire region.

The spread of the coronavirus among Armenian troops contributed to declining morale, Nagorno-Karabakh President Arayik Harutyunyan said on Facebook, as he defended the cease-fire. “I don’t know what assessment history will give to this decision but we were forced to take it,” with Azerbaijani troops just 2-3 kilometers from Stepanakert, he said.

Street Protests​

Protests erupted in the streets of the Armenian capital, Yerevan, after news of the agreement emerged. Demonstrators broke into the parliament and angry crowds gathered outside the government building and Pashinyan’s official residence, accusing him of betraying the country.

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The agreement to halt the fighting that broke out Sept. 27 sets out a timetable for Armenian withdrawal from occupied Azerbaijani districts outside Nagorno-Karabakh in stages by Dec. 1, effectively restoring Azerbaijan’s control of most of the territory it lost in the 1990s. It also provides for exchanges of prisoners and the return of refugees, while saying nothing about the final status of the disputed enclave.

The two sides have been fighting for more than six weeks over the enclave and seven surrounding regions taken by Armenians in the 1990s, which are internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. More than 5,000 people have died, according to Russian officials.

Azerbaijan said it fought to restore control over its territory. Armenia said it was defending Nagorno-Karabakh’s right to self-determination after its Armenian majority voted for independence.

— With assistance by Selcan Hacaoglu, Henry Meyer, and Ania Nussbaum

(Updates with Kremlin comment in seventh paragraph, Macron in ninth)

source:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-karabakh-war-brings-turkey-into-his-backyard
 

Deliorman

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TBH even without Azerbaijan getting back even an inch of territory in Karabakh and if they were still under Armenian control Turkey’s positions in the South Caucasus wouldn’t be bad. Azerbaijan was already pro- Turkey and Georgia is closer to the Azeri-Turkish camp rather than to Armenia and Russia for obvious reasons. No matter what, Armenia was and forever is destined to be Russia puppet- with Artsakh, without it or with 10% of it and under Russian protection- that is their destiny.

This deal that Aliyev signed with Pashinyan and Putin is a bad deal from my maximalist and idealist point of view (I was all rooting only for an absolutely crushing victory and Armenian unconditional surrender) but it gives Turkey some aces in its hands too. Now almost for certain Turkey will send it’s troops to parts of Karabakh too and will further increase it’s military presence and cooperation with Azerbaijan on all fronts. This war opened the eyes of many people in Azerbaijan towards where they should look for assistance and strength when it matters the most so no matter what it only cemented our image as Big Brothers to Azerbaijan. We are basically on Russia’s southern border and close to Dagestan, Chechnia, Ingushetia etc. The open road through Armenia territory that will connect Turkey, Nakhchevan and Karabakh even if under Russian control will be useful and even if they close it someday we will again have our Georgian alternative etc.

And if Russia decides to play the same games in Stepanakert/Hankendi as it did in Georgia and Ukraine... that will be problematic but in the end of the day not a winning strategy for them. Look at them- they took Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Donetsk etc but as a result they lost Ukraine and Georgia which have always been their brothers but now don’t even want to hear about Moscow’s whip.

With all of that said- The Caucasus is basically divided in Turko- Russian spheres of influence now. It was positive that this deal in Karabakh was achieved without any US and European hand in it too.
 

Costin84

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US and EU can't have a hand in this because the Armenians were to stupid. As much as I understand their plight throughout the centuries, staying on their maximally positions throughout the last 3 decades brought them here....and,ofcourse, trusting the Russians. A 3 million country with a garbage economy thinking of annexing territory left and right...come on! There's a moment in life when you have to move on,for your own sake....I glad my people understood that as early as 1878 when after the Russo Turkish war when we were called to save their behinds at Plevna we got a thank you note and an ultimatum to give them Basarabia (roughly current day Moldova)....one must adapt and live in the present, be they Christians, Muslims or what not....if you can't do that ,enjoy being crushed by emotions and irelevant past grievances
 

Xenon54

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With all of that said- The Caucasus is basically divided in Turko- Russian spheres of influence now. It was positive that this deal in Karabakh was achieved without any US and European hand in it too.
Turkey with ressource/population rich Azerbaijan and Georgia with black sea access definitely has the better cars than Russian with land locked Armenia which is essentially a ruined country on every front imaginable.
The exodus of youth out of Armenia will increase even more in the next years. Russia will probably take complete control in Yerevan too and de facto end their already fragile independence. Armenian politicians just sealed the fate of their country with this move.

Azerbaijan taking Karabakh without a condition and totaly expel Armenian occupiers with decisive victory would be the cherry on top but it was too good to be true it seems. Well at least we still have a goal to strive for in the future.
 

dani92

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US and EU can't have a hand in this because the Armenians were to stupid. As much as I understand their plight throughout the centuries, staying on their maximally positions throughout the last 3 decades brought them here....and,ofcourse, trusting the Russians. A 3 million country with a garbage economy thinking of annexing territory left and right...come on! There's a moment in life when you have to move on,for your own sake....I glad my people understood that as early as 1878 when after the Russo Turkish war when we were called to save their behinds at Plevna we got a thank you note and an ultimatum to give them Basarabia (roughly current day Moldova)....one must adapt and live in the present, be they Christians, Muslims or what not....if you can't do that ,enjoy being crushed by emotions and irelevant past grievances
Ultranationalist who think of building greater Albanian or greater Romania or greater hungaria should learn from Germany and Iraqi experience of greater country and how that destroyed them in the end
 

Costin84

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Ultranationalist who think of building greater Albanian or greater Romania or greater hungaria should learn from Germany and Iraqi experience of greater country and how that destroyed them in the end
Ultranationalists in Romania don't exist anymore....we're realists now...to our good fortune
 

Saithan

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I wrote a message to Cavusoglu on twitter and asked that Azerbaycan construct high tech bordergate with surveillance systems and such.

Even if Russia is going to patrol the corridor I want Azerbaycan to keep track of what goes in and out.
 

Costin84

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I think Greater Romania has already been acheived well nearly all you guys need is Moldova back into the fold.
And do what with them? They're 5 times poorer and the package would include a sizeable Russian minority who hates us. We're better off developing what we already have, it's not like we're doing a wonderful job.
 

Saithan

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And do what with them? They're 5 times poorer and the package would include a sizeable Russian minority who hates us. We're better off developing what we already have, it's not like we're doing a wonderful job.
I have always thought with regard to Russian influence the language was a threat to East European countries.
 

Costin84

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I have always thought with regard to Russian influence the language was a threat to East European countries.
Russian language isn't a threat, Russia is.Only fools think of useless land when your home country has a negative population growth and economy wise you're 20 years behind Western Europe.
 

Ryder

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Russian language isn't a threat, Russia is.Only fools think of useless land when your home country has a negative population growth and economy wise you're 20 years behind Western Europe.

Romania and Moldova are basically related to be honest. I know its poor dont you think its better they need Romania's help?
 
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Costin84

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Romania and Moldova are basically related to be honest. I know its poor that you think its better they need Romania's help?
And I would help them gladly, Romania donated, lend them money numerous times in the last 20 years, only for those money to dissappear in the pockets of a corrupt political elite, on both sides of the spectrum...pro Romania or pro Russia. Moldova is a lost cause.
 

Ryder

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And I would help them gladly, Romania donated, lend them money numerous times in the last 20 years, only for those money to dissappear in the pockets of a corrupt political elite, on both sides of the spectrum...pro Romania or pro Russia. Moldova is a lost cause.

Damn what a shame I never knew this to be honest. I know Moldova is really poor but never knew its this bad. That explains why so many Romanians have gave up on Moldova.
 
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Saithan

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Damn what a shame I never knew this to be honest. I know Moldova is really poor but never its this bad. That explains why so many Romanians have gave up on Moldova.
landlocked country, it's development is pretty much at the mercy and goodwill of neighboring countries and it's own politicians.
 

dani92

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Ultranationalists in Romania don't exist anymore....we're realists now...to our good fortune
Maybe in Romania but not the other countries that I mentioned the greater land claims will only bring misery
 

Costin84

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I think Greater Romania has already been acheived well nearly all you guys need is Moldova back into the fold.
Btw, as we were on this subject the pro Romanian candidate won the Presidential election in Moldova against the incumbent, VERY pro Russian President....52 to 48 %......
Are you guys curious how the ethnic Turks in the autonomous Gagauzia voted?

@UkroTurk @xenon5434 @T-123456 etc.......94%....yes 94% PRO Russia....
 

Xenon54

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Btw, as we were on this subject the pro Romanian candidate won the Presidential election in Moldova against the incumbent, VERY pro Russian President....52 to 48 %......
Are you guys curious how the ethnic Turks in the autonomous Gagauzia voted?

@UkroTurk @xenon5434 @T-123456 etc.......94%....yes 94% PRO Russia....
I guess thats because of religion, they are majority Othodox Christian.
 

Costin84

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I guess thats because of religion, they are majority Othodox Christian.
So are the Romanians, just that we didn't genocide, multiple times, Turkic populations throughout Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.I think it speaks volumes about the Stockholm syndrome within the wider Turkic world
 
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Btw, as we were on this subject the pro Romanian candidate won the Presidential election in Moldova against the incumbent, VERY pro Russian President....52 to 48 %......
Are you guys curious how the ethnic Turks in the autonomous Gagauzia voted?

@UkroTurk @xenon5434 @T-123456 etc.......94%....yes 94% PRO Russia....
I had already known how Gagazuians political views were.

İ can give you an another example from Uzbekistan. There is not little Tartarian population in Uzbekistan..

Tartarian children don't go to schools with Uzbekistan language . They prefer Russian language instead of Uzbek! They consider Uzbekistan language as mandatory so it is burden and insulting.
That's why there are still Russian schools in Uzbekistan.
 

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